First, I invite you to bask in the eye-wateringly detailed feast of psephological goodness that is my Senate election guide, subject of the post immediately below this one. Second, I understand we may yet see results from an Essential Research poll conducted over the weekend, but apparently not quite yet. Third, we reach an important milestone in the campaign today with the declaration of candidates and ballot papers draws, nominations having closed yesterday.
With all that out of the way, I offer the following assembly of polling snippets and horse race prognostication, in keeping with my performance indicator of having at least one new post up on every day of the campaign, except maybe on Saturdays.
• The unpredictable Roy Morgan has released the results of its weekend face-to-face polling – probably a more fraught exercise than usual over Easter – which finds Labor with a two-party lead of 51-49, from primary votes of Coalition 39%, Labor 35.5%, Greens 9.5%, One Nation 4.5% and, contrary to its strong showing in the marginal seat Newspolls published yesterday, United Australia Party 2.0%. The published release compares with those of “the prior surveying period of April 6/7 & 13/14, 2019”, though the last results it actually published covered only the first half of that period. Either way, the result in the earlier poll was 52.5-47.5 to Labor. The sample of this latest poll was a rather modest 707.
• Roy Morgan also appears to be doing separate polling for the Australian Futures Project which I must find out more about, since all I can tell you is that News Corp’s Annika Smedhurst has published results from it on two successive Sundays. I didn’t bother with its findings last week because they related only to issue salience and didn’t show up anything you couldn’t have guessed, and the most recent results have only just come to my attention. These do actually cover voting intention, and record a 52-48 lead to Labor on two-party preferred. Beyond that though, there are no primary votes and nothing on sample size or survey methodology, with other details in the report relating only to the undecided rate. I can’t find the report online, but Smedhurst has posted an image of it on Twitter.
• Polling conducted by the Liberals for Telereach in the the north-western Tasmanian seat of Braddon, and published by local newspaper the Burnie Advocate, finds Scott Morrison with a 44% approval rating and 43% disapproval rating in the electorate, whereas Bill Shorten has 31% approval and 59% disapproval. Though perhaps the past tense would be more appropriate – the poll was conducted on April 3, from a sample of 626. Some may ask why the Liberals would provide data on leadership ratings but not voting intention. I do not know the answer.
• Journalists continue to receive wildly different impressions of the situation in Victoria depending on whom they talk to. The Financial Review yesterday reported Scott Morrison was starting to find favour among “blue-collar and outer-suburban voters”, turning around what was a “horrendous” situation two months ago, with Labor consistently around 7% ahead statewide. They still expect to lose Chisholm and Dunkley, but believe they may hold not just La Trobe but also Corangamite, albeit that skepticism was expressed about the 54-46 result in the Geelong Advertiser’s ReachTEL poll. The obverse of this would seem to be that things remain radically bad for the Liberals nearer the city, to the extent that they are only “narrowly ahead” in Kooyong and Higgins.
• On the ABC’s Insiders on Sunday, Patricia Karvelas said she had spoken to Nationals who believed George Christensen was “gone” in Dawson, while fellow panellist Andrew Probyn said both sides did not know what to expect given the wild card of preferences from One Nation, who did not field a candidate in 2016 and are now expected to poll up to 20%.
The leaders debate is being touted as a “town Hall” style debate, but it will not be in a town hall. It will be coming from channel 7’s studio in Osborne Park, ie Newspaper House, the home of Seven West Media. There is currently no information about who the audience will be. Does anyone know where the audience will come from?
Evening peeps.
I’ve been immersed in typical school holiday Australiana for a week and a half -how’s the electioneering going?
William Bowe
says:
Wednesday, April 24, 2019 at 11:15 pm
Nath, if you’re about — I observe that earlier today you posted a meme from a far right Facebook account, which you were happy to make common cause with because it was criticising the ALP right. As I correctly observed on one such occasion previously, the reason you do this sort of thing is that you’re a childish arsehole.
_____________________________
Was it? My apologies for that, someone was going on about an Australian tea party and to be honest I didn’t notice those logos at the bottom until somebody raised it. I just got it off google images page. I think I’ll steer clear of those memes from now on.
“I’ve been immersed in typical school holiday Australiana for a week and a half -how’s the electioneering going?”
Close run race between the Greens and the ALP from what I can gather from this site. I think there is another party running – the Liberal party I think is their name, but I’m not really sure.
Well, you’re a fucking idiot then.
The absence of polls suggesting a shift to the LNP suggests one thing I suspect. The betting companies have dialed back the odds of an ALP majority by the tiniest sliver from mid 1.10s to mid 1:20s. There again any smart campaigner might might figure a 100k on the betting market to shift the odds might be a better bet than a few 1000s corflutes
William Bowe
says:
Wednesday, April 24, 2019 at 11:33 pm
My apologies for that, someone was going on about an Australian tea party and to be honest I didn’t notice those logos at the bottom until somebody raised it.
Well, you’re a fucking idiot then.
__________________________________
Just a bit distracted at the time. I probably should have been more careful. No need to be nasty. I apologised for posting it on your website.
Apology accepted.
WB
Woohoo. Way to go.
steve davis
says:
Wednesday, April 24, 2019 at 11:38 pm
WB
Woohoo. Way to go.
_________________
Steve I was regularly punched in the head as a kid. You think being called an idiot bothers me?
Nath
No comment required.
EGW says:
Wednesday, April 24, 2019 at 10:43 pm
Was it Socrates who earlier mentioned he is getting NBN HFC?
I am in the same boat an looking at options for a service provider.
Aussie was recommended last night by AGM? And my son uses Aussie as well and recommends them.
OTOH, Telstra has a rather attractive modem that switches to 4G if the HFC drops out as my non-NBN HFC frequently does and did earlier this evening.
Pricing is not all that different if you try to compare like with like.
Does anyone have any other suggestions?
*******************
I’ve recently been switched to HFC NBN and changed from iiNet to Aussie Broadband. I average around 95/38, even in the evenings.
I wonder what happened to the Essential that was polling over the Easter. Are results too rogue to release?
Roger Miller says:
Wednesday, April 24, 2019 at 11:25 pm
The leaders debate is being touted as a “town Hall” style debate, but it will not be in a town hall. It will be coming from channel 7’s studio in Osborne Park, ie Newspaper House, the home of Seven West Media. There is currently no information about who the audience will be. Does anyone know where the audience will come from?
*****************
The audience will be carefully curated and vetted members of the local Liberal Party branches. ID will be checked at the door.
If polls remain 52/48, I can’t see anything but a Labor landslide. The Coaledia (Coalition + Media) has done its absolute best to diminish Labor’s chances of winning. If the last two weeks cannot dent Labor’s support, I don’t see anything doing so.
Having said that, I wish I could be optimistic that this was the case.
Jordan
says:
Wednesday, April 24, 2019 at 11:54 pm
If polls remain 52/48, I can’t see anything but a Labor landslide. The Coaledia (Coalition + Media) has done its absolute best to diminish Labor’s chances of winning. If the last two weeks cannot dent Labor’s support, I don’t see anything doing so.
Having said that, I wish I could be optimistic that this was the case.
____________________________________
My dream result is that the Greens pick up 5 seats in Melbourne and the rest of the results are so close that they have the BoP. Of course this wont happen, but I think it’s the best chance of getting out from under the right wing of both major parties.
grimace
I expect that is close to the ball park.
Nath … I stick with my prediction. ALP 75. LNP 70 OTH 5 Greens 1. Greens hold BOP in the reps!
I decided not to debate politics again until after the election because I reckon 99% – 100% of press articles / politician speeches ATM are bullshit. Also Lib friends are very very touchy at the moment and not reacting as jovially as usual to political banter .. Tense times .
@ICanCU
I am predicting a comfortable (82-84 seats) Labor win myself off a two party preferred result of about 52%. Also The size of the cross-bench I have a feeling could be considerable after this election.
Labor toerags nothing to say on indigenous people and their lands, with their fracking bullshit gas and Adani Galilee basin carbon bombs
Such importance that they get to have their netflix fixation between fucking over the most marginalised, disempowered, imprisoned and suicidal people in the land.
That’s the greatness of Australian Labor for you
Couldn’t give a shit, nor say or do anything of real consequence
Aside from Bob Hawke who actually rode in on the back of a campaign to save a part of the natural world, a natural world upon which we all depend and are now losing
Say nothing, do nothing, scumbags seems to an appropriate response from those thrown under the fracking gas bus by Labor
https://www.homefront.site
Shorten is not ideal, but so far the least-worst option available.
And we see comments on man-boobs? What sort of mediated blog allows that level of derogatory crap?
This one. In all seriousness, Bill Shorten shouldn’t be jogging in public.
So BB’s comments some time ago about the unpalatable saggy tits of our former foreign minister were a cause of debate, but…
Julies tits are off limits, Bills are not?!?
Fuck me if I know where the apostrophes should go – probably between the tits?
Yeah, pretty much.
From P.J. O’Rourke’s “100 Reasons Why Jimmy Carter Was a Better President than Bill Clinton”:
There’s been a running sore of anti trans media trolling in the UK in the last few months.
It has been poisonous & led by the usual suspect.
I wondered when it would get here.
Obligatory XKCD
https://xkcd.com/1852/
Just to say, Lawrence Mooney invented the term ‘tits Shorten’ in his comedy specials, of which Shorten has been a guest. They have photos done together. Shorten has a thicker skin than an elephant and doesn’t need people defending him.
Go on William, explain your philosophy:
a)
a woman’s tits are a less valid topic of conversation than a man’s tits
or
b)
a liberal woman’s tits are a less valid topic of conversation than a labor man’s tits
BB was being nasty about Bishop’s womanhood. Nath is being nasty about Shorten’s physical unfitness.
And from this womanhood is more important than physical fitness?
Or debasing one’s womanhood is more damaging than debasing one’s physical fitness?
If I had a shovel emoji and a Thomas Jefferson emoji I would merge them into an uber-emoji at this point/
A short history of Australian political man-boobery:
It’s been a long time since man cans, manneries or boy-zookers have had so much airplay.
It all started when Opposition Leader Bill Shorten was photographed jogging in a black Lycra top one morning that accentuated his somewhat flabby chest…
As soon as the clip went public, photographic editors around the country scoured archives to provide readers and viewers with a gallery of Shorten man boobery…
And news reporters and columnists sharpened their pencils and went to work creating Boobgate.
Joining the fray was former Labor leader and now mouth-for-hire around town Mark Latham, whose own man boobs captured the nation briefly in 2004.
https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/lifestyle/sa-weekend/bill-caught-shorten-over-his-man-boobs/news-story/db5d01ad68e454cb9f3995fd28f600e6
Grog seems a bit disappointed with journalists tonight.
Yep, there we go – unexpurgated body-image hatred from Nath.
Go on, let’s just say it – we prefer Julies saggy tits to Bills.
William Bowe endorsed blog-accepted debate. Wow!
Son of Sam:
Don’t get too worked up pal. Shorten’s problem is shared by many men of a certain age and of a certain build.
“The lunches of fifty-seven years had caused his chest to slip down to the mezzanine floor.” ~P.G Wodehouse (English humorist) 1881-1975
Although, when I think of it, this quote from P G Wodehouse probably best describes Shorten:
He looked like a sheep with a secret sorrow.
And a quote – woo hoo, give the tiny-pricked louse a shovel. He could almost dig himself a grave although his arms are atrophied like twigs with only strange protuberances on his wrists from excessive wanking.
Maybe if we removed the images of man-boobs he might return to his dormant state of a slug, they seem to be causing an excess of nathgitation…
It’s patently obvious that comments about a woman’s breasts have completely different imputation from those about a man’s chest. It’s ludicrously disingenuous to pretend otherwise to make a point.
That said I hope I can say I wouldn’t really stoop to the level of attacking someone’s physical characteristics, for anyone.
Sam, you’re so sweet imagining me pleasuring myself. I won’t return the favour.
tiny-pricked louse was the image – nothing has changed there
Son Of Sam I Am
says:
Thursday, April 25, 2019 at 1:47 am
tiny-pricked louse was the image – nothing has changed there
_____________________
Isn’t that body shaming? I’m confused, you attack Julie but don’t want anything said about Bill. You call for an end to body shaming and then seek to body shame me. Good lord man, you are all over the place.
Once was plenty, SoS.
Slow-whited tiny-pricked louse might actually be more accurate.
Come on you gnat, surely you can raise yourself to some level worthy of an out-right ban?
Yep WB it was – ban me to make Gnat’s crap obvious tomorrow please
Son Of Sam I Am
says:
Thursday, April 25, 2019 at 1:49 am
Slow-whited tiny-pricked louse might actually be more accurate.
Come on you gnat, surely you can raise yourself to some level worthy of an out-right ban?
_________________________
Ah now I see the cunning plan unveiled before me. You seek to rouse the tiger and trap him.
I expect better on Anzac Day, quite frankly.
A bludger who names himself after a notorious serial killer. Not a great move if you want to be taken seriously as a moral arbiter.
well I guess Sam has retreated to his basement fortress. I guess it’s goodnight from him and goodnight from me.
Hello William and everyone.
Just an introduction.
Intending to post here under the name of “Been There” as I have been doing in SMH.
That user name was taken in The Guardian Australia so I went to “everywhereman” in that chronicle.
I intend to be a genuine contributor of this blog and don’t want to be considered as a blow in troll.
My posting history is freely available as “everywhereman” at The Guardian Australia if anyone wants to make any judgements.