The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been updated with the three post-budget polls from Newspoll, Ipsos and Essential Research, the combined effect of which is to reduce Labor’s two-party lead from 52.9-47.1 to 52.6-47.4. There’s also a fair bit going on within the state breakdowns – in fact, probably too much.
The recovery the Liberals believe they are detecting in New South Wales is well and truly coming through on BludgerTrack, albeit that Labor is still credited with a net gain of two seats there. A significant improvement has also been recorded in the Coalition’s position recently in Western Australia, although here too Labor is credited with a net gain of two seats. What we’re not seeing any sign of is the improved position the Coalition claims to be seeing in Queensland, where reports have suggested they are now hopeful of breaking even by gaining Herbert and limiting the damage in the south-east. BludgerTrack is stubbornly detecting a swing to Labor in the strategically crucial state of over 6%, translating into a gain of nine seats.
I would be a lot more confident of all this if I had more data at state level, which I’m hoping Ipsos might publish in due course – they appeared to have adopted the Newspoll practice last year of publishing quarterly state breakdowns, but we didn’t see one for October-December and are now due one for January-March. I’ve been trying to chase this up and will keep you posted.
Newspoll and Ipsos both provided new data for the leadership ratings, which are now detecting an uptick in Scott Morrison’s personal ratings, although the picture remains fairly static on preferred prime minister. All of which you can learn more about through the link below.
TECHNICAL NOTE/APPEAL FOR HELP: I’m hoping those of my readers who know their way around web programming might help me resolve an irritating niggle that’s been bedevilling the BludgerTrack display for some time. Namely, that the state breakdown tabs tend not to work, particularly when the page is first loaded. My own experience is that it requires a hard refresh before they will respond. Tablet users, I am told, can’t even do that well.
Based on my research, it would seem to be that the problem lies with the following bit of Ajax code. If anyone thinks they can offer me any pointers here, please get in touch by email at pollbludger-AT-bigpond-DOT-com.
$(document).ready(function() {
$.ajax({
cache: false,
type: "GET",
url: "bt-output.xml",
dataType: "xml",
success: xmlParser
});
});
re Dutton: if a nobody candidate standing for the LNP in a safe Labor seat were to make those appalling comments, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if they were disendorsed by the party. I also think that the same standard should apply to Dutton, but I haven’t heard anyone suggesting it.
If this is the case then let this be the first suggestion: the LNP should move to make Dutton retract the comments and unreservedly apologise under threat of being disendorsed.
You give the LNP far too much credit there.
Dutton faced no reprimands whatsoever for letting au pairs breach their visa conditions as a favor to his mates. He certainly won’t be reprimanded over some appalling comments.
autocrat – what is even worse for the libs is that, while Dutton does not apologise, all the other libs from Morrison down are forced to defend him and are made accomplices. They are sucked into the vortex. This has a multiplier effect.
from the guardian live blog:
Scott Morrison has condemned Israel Folau’s comments that “hell awaits people like homosexuals, drunks and fornicators” as insensitive several times today:
Morrison (to the ABC) :
“I thought they were terribly insensitive comments. Obviously they’re a matter for the ARU and they’ve taken that decision as a result of the insensitivities of those comments.
“Well, you know it’s important that people act with love and care and compassion to their fellow citizens and to speak sensitively to their fellow Australians. That’s what I believe.”
And in his own press conference:
“Israel’s comments were insensitive and it is important that when you’re in public life you just be mindful of being sensitive to other Australians and that you speak with that empathy and so the ARU have made their decision in relation to that matter.”
That’s a change from just under a year ago, when Folau made similar comments on his social media, when Morrison told Miranda Devine:
“It clearly means a lot to Izzy and good for him for standing up for his faith,” Morrison said.
“He wouldn’t have wanted to intend to have offended or hurt anyone because that’s very much against the faith that he feels so passionately about. But I think he’s shown a lot of strength of character in just standing up for what he believes in and I think that’s what this country is all about.”
what a pair of creeps – labor should use this to remind people that morrison campaigned against SSM and helped force Turnbull into the expensive plebiscite (which I note cost about the same as reopening Christmas Island for four weeks) and then abstained from voting with other RWNJs against his constituents’ vote.
For me this election is a test about how greedy and selfish people are in their attitudes to other people in society,especially tax freebies and loopholes instead of health(including cancer),the disabled,education and climate change. We will see.
sustainable future
Of course Scrott tip toed around re Folau. They are both Assemblies of God pentecostals. What odds Morrison believes exactly what Folau was unwise enough to say in public ?
poroti @ #304 Friday, April 12th, 2019 – 2:52 pm
Assemblies of God pentecostals = ratbags
steve davis says:
John Howard found the answer to be “very” and did very well with it.
Dutton and the Lib Leadership refusing to apologise…………yet!
https://junkee.com/peter-dutton-ali-france-excuse/201363
I am predicting that the polling gap will close to 52-48 in Labor’s favor on election Day. That would probably mean Labor winning 82-83 seats (depending on if Adam Bandt gets re-elected in Melbourne). The Coalition winning around 64 and six crossbenchers.
For the Ecuadorians, the last straw was Assange involving himself in a smear campaign.
William
Firstly, apologies if anybody has picked this already but in the Bludgertrack Lindsay is noted as an L-NP incumbency loss. Should be the other way round.
The IRA employed that tactic in Gaol.
From McKenna’s latest report:
Asked about Mr Shorten’s demands for an apology, Mr Dutton’s spokesman issued a statement.
“Minister Dutton was reflecting the views raised with him by his constituents. These are the issues that people have raised,’’ the statement said.
“Minister Dutton was repeating the views and concerns about the Labor candidate, raised with him by constituents — that is that she doesn’t live in the electorate and has told people locally that even if she wins the seat she won’t move into the electorate.
“Dickson constituents believe Ms France’s refusal to live in the electorate, even if she won the seat, is more about her enjoying the inner city lifestyle, as opposed to her inability to find a house anywhere in the electorate.’’
Dutton doubles down. If only he’d won the ballot last year.
steve davis @ #312 Friday, April 12th, 2019 – 3:05 pm
I want the names and addresses of the “constituents” who raised these issues, or I’ll be forced to call bullshit on the whole thing.
Josh being called out..
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/12/josh-frydenberg-says-labor-plans-387-billion-in-new-taxes-but-the-facts-say-otherwise
So, “Treasury costings of Labor’s policy” may be convenient shorthand for government attack lines, but in theory the apolitical public service is costing proposals with assumptions put to it by the government.
Guardian Australia has contacted the Treasury in an effort to confirm the calculations.
Greensborough Growler @ #309 Friday, April 12th, 2019 – 12:58 pm
Well I guess that would constitute a serious breach of ‘daily lifestyle protocols’.
Interesting article in the AFR today suggesting that the LNP think they can hold on by limiting losses on Victoria to 2 seats. Also claims that the LNP also have 7/8 seats they think they have a chance to win off ALP. Seems overly ambitious.
I can forgive you for thinking that. But here’s the deal. The incumbency effect accrues to the candidate, not the party. At the 2016 election, the Liberal candidate was Fiona Scott, an incumbent. This time there’s no incumbent. So the Liberals have lost the incumbency benefit. Nor is there a Labor sophomore as there would usually be in this situation, thanks to the Emma Husar episode. So the situation is actually as it would be if a sitting Liberal member was retiring. It’s because of the unusual case of Lindsay that it now says “incumbency loss” — previously it said “incumbent retiring” or something.
Dutton really has a politcal extinction-wish. I remember his wife reportedly said ‘once Peter makes up his mind he doesn’t change it’ wtte.
So he is more likely to become intrenched unless his boss gives him no choice.
Dutton would have been a terrible PM. Just like he is a terrible person.
Greensborough Growler @ #309 Friday, April 12th, 2019 – 2:58 pm
Very good GG.
autocrat @ #317 Friday, April 12th, 2019 – 3:12 pm
What a gutless wonder. Hiding behind his constituents. Probably just a couple of staffers in reality.
Confessions
Re Assange. More evidenxe of mental instability.
Labor is claiming “the Treasury has rejected the Prime Minister and Treasurer’s claims today that Treasury has costed Labor’s tax policies”.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2019/apr/12/federal-election-2019-coalition-labor-tax-economy-morrison-shorten-politics-live
‘So, is Labor introducing $387bn of new taxes?
The short answer is no.’
PuffyTMD @ #321 Friday, April 12th, 2019 – 1:21 pm
I imagine holing yourself up in a cupboard for 7 years will do that.
Greensborough Growler says:
Friday, April 12, 2019 at 2:58 pm
For the Ecuadorians, the last straw was Assange involving himself in a smear campaign.
I wonder how sane you would be after being locked up in a small room without natural light for 7 years.
Jeez, this has turned into a fucking woeful day for the Libs. First Dutton, now Treasury.
In keeping with the last six years of cluckfustery by the incumbents, it all looks like it’s falling apart for them, and we’re only at day 2. I’m wondering if they’ve got anything other some made-up numbers to scare people with.
If they haven’t it’s going to be a particularly tedious 5 weeks.
Treasury have said they costed raw numbers provided by the Government which did not identify them as the Opposition’s Policy (but amazingly, were very similar to what Bowen said).
Reading the whole letter, it seems the Treasury didn’t cost Opposition policies – it costed raw material provided to it, from the government – essentially rows of numbers, but did not provide a total, because it did not put the interaction effect in – how these policies all relate to each other.
C@tmomma @ #323 Friday, April 12th, 2019 – 3:23 pm
Yes, one thing you can be sure of is that treasury never said there was “$387 billion of new taxes”. Treasury did not speak about “new taxes” and did not give a total figure, for a start.
Further proof that six years of massively incompetent govt inevitably leads to a massively incompetent election campaign, especially without the public service as a crutch. This is a bridge-down train wreck so far, and it’s going to get worse.
Today really is reinforcing my belief that the govt has gotten a very slight boost in the polls because they haven’t been around parliament much to stuff everything up, and politics hasn’t been at the forefront of peoples’ minds since December.
Now they’re front and centre, they’re back doing what they do best – over-reaching and constantly stuffing up. Signs were there when they amended the Budget overnight – they couldn’t get a set piece like that right, let alone the impromptu nature of a campaign.
It’s just pure chaos. Reinforcing everything people already think of them.
Burgey @ #326 Friday, April 12th, 2019 – 3:28 pm
This might be as good as it gets for the Libs.
Expecting Paul Murray and Chris Kenny to call today for the Libs any minute now…
First Dog reckons this election is all about revenge.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/apr/12/tony-abbott-peter-dutton-who-will-lose-their-seat-in-election-2019
It is now blindingly obvious that nobody is in the cockpit of the libs’s plane. If the PM can’t ring up Dutton and pull him into line, he has no power and they are a deranged mob.
I note that Morrison has started strongly calling anything he disagrees with/amy inconvenient truth “a lie” – especially to any ABC interviewer who asks a hard question.
Hmmm, which other overweight, baseball hat-wearing world leader uses that tactic
So in another clusterfuck the libs tried to force Treasury to do its dirty work and then backfired on the libs
A big fuck You ScoMo / Josh / Mathias.
I wonder why Morrison was a bit evasive on the Israel Falau issue.
“Pentecostal congregations have historically condemned homosexuality, and most Pentecostal denominations have doctrinal statements condemning homosexuality, such as the International Pentecostal Holiness Church’s statement, “We have maintained a strong position against premarital, extramarital, and deviant sex, including homosexual and lesbian relationships, refusing to accept the loose moral standards of our society. We commit ourselves to maintaining this disciplined lifestyle with regard to our bodies.”
nath: “I rarely talk about Tanya, because I try not to be too gushing, but what a woman. I wish I was her intern.”
This is wildly inconsistent with your prolonged campaign of hate against Shorten, since Plibersek has been a loyal deputy and speaks very highly of Bill.
If you’re right about Shorten then Plibersek is either stupid or a liar.
(She’s neither.)
antonbruckner11 @ #334 Friday, April 12th, 2019 – 3:43 pm
Maybe Morrison should travel to Dickson and give Dutton a hug!
Russel Crowe as Roger Ailes in Fox News, the Story.
The noise of Labor “robbing” Australians by the amount quoted will dissipate with analysis
And that you do not ask a question unless you know the answer so the presumptions put by the asker of the question gave the answer the asker begged
Media’s unquestioning initial “reporting” is unfortunate but that is media proprietor bias
Given there is still 5 weeks of this it may well ultimately rebound on the Coalition, branding the further positions they will put as having no substance
That apart, whilst driving around Melbourne today I note the Australian Government billboards promoting the government are gone – so public financing is no longer so they have been pulled down
Interesting is that they have not been replaced by Liberal Party billboards, instead replaced by the traditional users of such space
This would appear to confirm the “chatter” that the Libs are broke, borrowing against future income from votes attained in the upcoming election
GG
”The Judge was fairly scathing of Norvalis’ credibility as a witness. He basically said she made it all up.”
This is absolutely wrong. The judge said nothing of the sort. PB is more and more becoming a place of misinformation.
Read the whole judgement.
I wonder how far Paul Murray was up Abbott arse last night.
The “correction” by the Treasury was in time to hit the news broadcasts … I wonder how they’ll treat it? Will give an indication on how well/partisan they report the election.
If they are looking for controversy rather being partisan – Dutton and this sleight-of-hand by Frydenberg’s office should be front and centre.
I’ll be watching ABC to see … we should get people to report on each of the major ‘free to airs’ to monitor their work during the campaign.
Not a nice mental picture Steve Davis
Psyclaw @ #342 Friday, April 12th, 2019 – 3:55 pm
“Prone to embellish and exaggerate” is legalese for she was bullshitting!
Jenauthoe says Norvill’s evidence was considered by “an eminent HC judge”.
This case has never been to the HC.
And Michael Wigney has never been a HC judge.
More unreliable PB info, this time on which Jenauthor tries to build an anti Norvill case.