The day of the happy event

The false starts and prevarications are set to end this morning with the official announcement of a May 18 federal election.

It’s now a known known that Scott Morrison will be visiting the Governor-General early this morning to advise an election for May 18. Two things to mark the occasion: first, what I’ll call a provisional update of BludgerTrack, since it doesn’t include some state-level data I’m hoping to get hold of today. Adding the post-budget polling from Newspoll, Ipsos and Essential Research, it records a 0.3% improvement for the Coalition on two-party preferred, reducing the Labor lead to 52.6-47.4 from last week. If you observe the trendlines in the display on the sidebar or the full BludgerTrack results page, this shows up as a continuation in an ongoing improvement for the Coalition from their miserable starting point in the immediate aftermath of Malcolm Turnbull’s removal, rather than a “budget bounce”.

Secondly and more importantly, I offer the Poll Bludger’s federal election guide, even if it’s not what I’d entirely regard as ready yet.

Here you will find the most finely appointed Poll Bludger election guide yet published, with exhaustive and exhausting summaries of all 151 House of Representatives, each of which features bells and whistles both familiar (previous election booth results maps and displays of past election results) and new (data visualisation for a range of demographic indicators that now extends to ethnicity on age distribution). A Senate guide remains to be added, the betting odds are yet to be added to the bottom of the sidebars, and the whole thing is badly in need of proof reading. Rest assured though that all that will be taken care of in the days and weeks to come, together with campaign updates and further candidate details as they become available.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,010 comments on “The day of the happy event”

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  1. Rush awarded $850,000 for sensational and reckless journalism by Murdoch’s Telegraph.

    PLUS economic loss damages yet to be determined.

  3. Perhaps the early rush to judgement last year by some PBers in the defamation case to hand will clarify their thinking that just because a story’s in the newspaper, and just because someone reluctantly makes an allegation of improper sexual behaviour when forced to back up that story doesn’t mean the story is true.

    Australian theatre, it appears, isn’t some kind of Rosemary’s Baby-like coven of perverts and gropers (with the older women complicit in it as much as the alleged male abusers).

    Out of a pool of hundreds of potential witnesses, only one could be found to back up any of the allegations, and his evidence was found to be severely conflicting with the alleged victim’s. Perhaps, instead of indicating a grand conspiracy of silence, this lack of evidence indicates that the alleged events simply did not happen?

    Let’s see how some of the Rush Haters justify doubts they may entertain about today’s verdict with their certainty in the matter of George Pell’s conviction.

  5. Just to say I agree with the criticisms here of Greg Jennet. He’s hard to take. Better than Simkin who nearly pissed his pants over Abbott,. but not by much.

  6. Well, it’s on!

    My gut feeling: any popular doubts about Shorto will be nullified and then some by greater doubts about the smirking douchebag who no-one voted for as PM.

    ScoFo is happy clappy to boot, which of course is about as Australian as Waco, Texas.

    ALP circa 84 seats, government by 730pm on the 18th.

  7. Justice Wigley’s preliminary calculations.

    From Wigney’s calculations, Rush is set to win millions more once the numbers are settled on his lost earnings.

    Since the publication in October 2017, Rush has not worked.

    And Wigney then said for the next 18 months after today, he expects him to earn 50% of his usual amount. Between 18 months and 24 months, he expects him to earn 75%.

    Earlier, Rush’s lawyers submitted that he lost $5m of income between the publication and the trial (in October 2018).

    Thus, we can expect that calculation of lost earnings to be in the millions. That will then be added to the $850,000 for just the damage to his reputation, and his distress.

    North of $10M plus costs wouldn’t be out of order given the justice Wigney’s comments

  9. “A Japanese F-35 fighter crashed into the Pacific Ocean on Tuesday, raising questions about reliability and security of the most expensive weapons system ever made.”
    No wonder we bought them. I bet the air chiefs are taking a really close look at ours, and asking the Japanese some detailed questions.
    https://edition.cnn.com/2019/04/09/asia/japan-f-35-stealth-fighter-missing-intl/index.html

    “With the world’s most advanced avionics, engines and weaponry, the Pentagon touts the F-35 as the “the most affordable, lethal, supportable and survivable aircraft ever to be used.” ” survivable?

  10. L. Tarquinius Superbus Rex: “2 questions.

    What’s her view on coal ?

    Has she also been gagged by Labor from the MSM ?”

    1 Question: How much does she hate the Romans?

  17. Debate between Ministers and Shadows.

    The problem is that a clutch of Senior Ministers will not be in the parliament after the election – they have resigned already.

    And the word is that Sukkar is toast.

    The Deakin campaign has been running at full bore for a considerable period of time led by the Candidate

    I would not be giving Sukkar, the anointed Treasurer and Deputy Liberal Leader under Dutton, the credibility of appearing on the same platform with someone who has integrity.

    Sukkar is on the back bench for a reason – that reason being his reputation in sections of the Liberal Party where he is seen as a Bastiaan puppet.

    As someone has put, he reneged on appearing at a Box Hill Forum which was advertised widely in Deakin and Chisholm.

    The kindest comment on Sukkar going around is that, given the change in his figure over his term in the parliament to obese and in the absence of volunteers hence using Australia Post at cost, he should do his own letter boxing to improve his health and prospects for a longer life.

  18. booleanbach: “A Japanese F-35 fighter crashed into the Pacific Ocean on Tuesday, raising questions about reliability and security of the most expensive weapons system ever made.”

    All or most modern fighters are designed to be aerodynamically unstable (unlike passenger jets with the apparent exception of the 737-MAX) in order to increase manoeuvrability (and possibly evasion) and so they crash rather often. This idea that they have “questions to answer” on that basis is bullshit, as is the idea of “safe” fighter planes.

  20. Deakin, La Trobe and Chisholm were made slightly safer at the expense of Casey and added a safe Labor seat.

    Labor’s always struggled because its support in the outer east is pretty spread out. Labor does well-ish in Healesville and surrounds, along the Warburton Hwy as you get past Seville and around the Dandenongs. So maybe a safe Labor seat if one were to be drawn in a skinny red line from Healesville to Belgrave á la Texas boundaries.

  21. BF _ Most judges are pretty good. But they’ve got to wade through a porridge of facts that various interested witnesses have supplied and try to organise them into a narrative that makes some sort of sense. I don’t waste much time thinking whoever won or lost a case was right or wrong. Maybe the judge got it “right” and maybe he didn’t. Next!

  23. Well, sensible of him then.

    I guess the Tele ought to have considered that possibility before they published the obvious, unsupported tripe they published?

  25. “steve davis says:
    Thursday, April 11, 2019 at 3:21 pm
    Please let it be $20 million plus.”

    The problem is that Murdoch has very deep pockets and will appeal. This is what happened to Rebel Wilson (vs Bauer Media) and she ended up with very little and may even have lost that in legal expenses.

  26. Interestingly, News Corp is no longer part of the world’s biggest cinema production organization, it having been split up while the judge was pondering his verdict.

  27. William,

    There’s an issue with the link on the main page of the guide to La Trobe. Works fine to get to the La Trobe page from the electorate list, though 🙂

  28. Nath,

    You are correct that the margin on paper that the ALP has to overcome in Deakin is up because of its shift Eastwards in the re-distribution. However if the state election results were to be replicated, Deakin will shift into the red column very early on election night.

    There were some state Liberal members here who weren’t the worst, who absolutely bore the brunt of association of being in the same party as Sukkar et al.

  30. I’m looking at the electoral map on the Guardian.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/ng-interactive/2019/apr/11/state-of-play-interactive-map-of-seat-margins-before-the-2019-australian-election
    Zoomed in to NQ I see a cluster of interesting margins, starting in the north and moving south along the coast.
    0.02% ALP Herbert (O’Toole)
    3.4% LNP Dawson (Christensen.)
    0.6% LNP Capricornia (Landry)
    1.0% LNP Flynn (O’Dowd)
    (WB has more https://www.pollbludger.net/fed2019/, though it looks like Herbert is incorrectly colour coded as LNP on the big list of electorates.)

    Herbert is “towney” (Townsville), Capricornia is a mix (“regional” plus Rockhampton), Dawson is “regional” and Flynn is a mix (Gladstone plus “regional”). It will be an interesting cluster to follow on the night.

  33. Fair warning:

    One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It’s simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we’ve been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back.

    Carl Sagan, astronomer and writer (9 Nov 1934-1996)

  38. citizen (Block)
    Thursday, April 11th, 2019 – 2:03 pm

    You beat me to it!

    The Stanley steamer was the first thing I thought of this morning, but other priorities called.

  43. Tony Abbott has a new line he’s trotting out….

    Former PM @TonyAbbottMHR: “If I really was such a washed-up has been, why are (GetUp!) putting in so much effort here?” #auspol #ausvotes

  46. Bushfire Bill says:
    Thursday, April 11, 2019 at 3:15 pm
    Perhaps the early rush to judgement last year by some PBers in the defamation case to hand will clarify their thinking that just because a story’s in the newspaper, and just because someone reluctantly makes an allegation of improper sexual behaviour when forced to back up that story doesn’t mean the story is true.

    Let’s see how some of the Rush Haters justify doubts they may entertain about today’s verdict with their certainty in the matter of George Pell’s conviction.
    ……………………………………………………………..

    I greatly enjoy your writing style BB and your observations are frequently acute and often original. This post is not your best effort.

    It was plain from the reporting of the trial that Wigney found the conflict of evidence supporting Norvill’s claims unsatisfactory and that the Daily TP would lose. Rightly so. Would have lost before a jury too. Your attack on Norvill was not justified and remains unjustified.

    Conflating the Rush decision with Pell’s conviction is silly as can be. There is absolute certainty Pell was convicted.

    As for “Rush haters”, the defamation case does not in any way prove that Rush is not a serial sexual molester. All it proves is that the DTP did not have proof that he was. In part this was because Witness X was not allowed to give evidence, again rightly so. But witness X came across as a very believable witness IMO and it is useful to note that Rush has made no effort to sue her for her claims. Again, IMO wisely so.

    As to whether the evidence supported the conviction of Pell only those who heard all the evidence can ultimately know. But I am more than happy to assume unless and until an appeal court says otherwise that Pell was guilty of the horrendous crimes he has been convicted of. Furthermore, for reasons I have posted soon after his grounds of appeal became known, I am very dubious the jury verdict will be overturned.

    It is also the case that since Pell’s conviction I have heard stories from Catholics who have lost family members to suicide who express great pleasure in Pell being convicted. I have no reason to doubt their stories and while those stories do NOT prove Pell committed any crime, they do shine a glaring light on the moral vacuum at his centre.

    As a result of these stories IMO Pell is finished whether or not he is successful on appeal. The genie is out of the bottle.

  47. A rat trap outside Peter Dutton’s office north of Brisbane was mistakenly reported to police as a “unknown item” on Thursday, prompting the bomb squad to be called to the scene.

    The specialist officers gave the all-clear at the office of the federal member for Dickson, off Gympie Road in Strathpine, just before 1pm after uniformed officers first on scene were unsure whether it was safe.

    Anthony Smith
    ‏
    mmmm
    Just a rat trap. I’m starting to wonder if Mr Dutton and his staff are feeling paranoid. Like they’re imagining everyone is out to get them..

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/queensland/bomb-squad-called-to-peter-dutton-s-office-north-of-brisbane-20190411-p51d76.html?ref=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_source=rss_feed

  49. ItzaDream. What was the source of that Sagan quote? Sounds like something written in The Demon-Haunted World (something everybody should read btw)

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