The night before Christmas

There is no polling to report, and I have my head buried too deep in my forthcoming federal election to report anything of substance on my own account. But with the announcement of the election universally anticipated on the weekend for either May 11 or May 18, a new open thread is very much in order, so here it is.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

801 comments on “The night before Christmas”

Comments Page 8 of 17
1 … 7 8 9 … 17

  2. Galaxy poll was apparently taken before the Budget. No TPP numbers but report sasy more than 1/3 of voters in every age bracket excpet over 65s (because Boomers are arseholes – sorry, but you are) will vote Labor.

    Article on the poll is in the ’tiser. Says about 22-24% will vote minor parties. I would post a link, but it diverts to their accounts page.

  3. “Last night on Sky Bronwyn Bishop said that the ALP is robbing old people with Franking Credits to pay for those with Cancer ”

    Helicopter Girl the gift that keeps on giving. 🙂

    The Libs must wish that their RWNuttjobbie wing would just STFU.

  4. I dont see either Biden or Sanders winning nomination for presidency.

    People will vote for younger candidate. Still see it being a Male. I am liking Eric Swawell. although he hasn’t put his hand up as yet. Lol

  5. An exclusive YouGov Galaxy poll conducted for News Corp Australia reveals people trust Pauline Hanson more than the Opposition leader Bill Shorten.

    The braindead of society.

  10. Victoria
    Policy substance should take center stage over age. In any case, speaking of young people, I suspect I know who AOC will eventually endorse, and I suspect you won’t like who that is…

  11. Excellent if true

    Conversation

    ✨ Johanna13 ✨
    @Jalbarron13
    Julian Assange to be expelled from Ecuadorian embassy in London WITHIN HOURS say WikiLeaks
    The following media includes potentially sensitive content. Change settings

  14. NSW – latest on the state election:

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-05/antony-green-nsw-upper-house-legislative-council-balance/10974364

    Three seats in the New South Wales Upper House are still in doubt with the Berejiklian Government set to negotiate a balance of power with five MPs from a range of political parties, according to ABC election analyst Antony Green.
    :::
    Mr Green said the final make-up of the Upper House would be known on April 12

  15. “But the figures do demonstrate that Biden is the current front runner and Sanders does not seem to have any real impetus contrary to what our resident Communist and Sanders love child likes to spout.”

    True, GG. I once saw Biden speak (over a decade ago in Iowa), and found him uninspiring. But I’d take him over Sanders any day of the week.

  18. It is not ‘trust’ it is just not ‘untrustworthy’ —
    .
    One Nation leader Pauline Hanson, who was ranked “untrustworthy” by 33 per cent
    .
    In the same way 74% of voters say Bill Shorten is ‘useful’ 🙂
    .
    Voters also saw Mr Shorten as …………………… “useless” (26 per cent).
    https://outline.com/233AtE

  19. I really like the cancer announcement. Both good policy and brilliant politically.

    One of the reasons Workchoices doomed Howard was that people who normally wouldn’t think of voting ALP did. In particular, older people voted against their own financial self-interest and in favour of their children and grandchildren’s interest.

    But not only does this cancer announcement mean anybody currently suffering from it will be highly motivated to vote ALP, but almost everyone in their close circle will feel the immediate inclination to vote Labor too.

  23. It seems a few punters moved the Coalition’s way after Frydenberg’s budget speech, but after Shorten’s speech the opposite occurred. Coalition again out to 4.50 and Labor into 1.18 on Sportsbet.

  24. Ven

    The problem for Wren is that for any attack on him to be successful Twitter has to agree. That means its like getting William to agree on a breach of the rules here.

    It does not matter how partisan the person making the allegation is. Its the decision of Twitter that counts.

    Blaming the Greens and Socialist Alliance not a good look for Wren really instead of complaining about any bias twitter may have.

  25. Ven

    I don’t want to pour water on a good old fashioned conspiracy theory, but the Wren account is dumpster fire and, frankly, I do not in anyway understand why any reasonable person would mourn its passing.

  31. Galaxy poll was just a pile of meaningless shit that doesnt translate to a TPP which is the only figure that matters in the end.

  32. loroti@1:51pm
    WTF, Hanson is considered ‘untrustworthy’ by only 33% Australians? What is wrong with remaining 60%?

  33. jenauthor
    says:
    Friday, April 5, 2019 at 2:05 pm
    Am looking at the Trust numbers now – Hanson isn’t higher – you’re full of crap nath.
    __________________________________________
    I just quoted the article. And Shorten is rated as more untrustworthy than Hanson.

    “An exclusive YouGov Galaxy poll conducted for News Corp Australia reveals people trust Pauline Hanson more than the Opposition leader.”

    https://outline.com/233AtE

  36. Fred Chaney (who was a lawyer, but recovered)

    Indeed. What the country would gain if the Liberal (sic) party actually was populated by actually liberal people like Fred Chaney is immeasurable.

  37. Looks like the Galaxy Poll is just another ‘dead cat’ thrown on the table.

    Divert people talking about the cancer thing/budget reply.

    A classic Crosby move.

  39. Seems like Border Force employees want to vote Pezzullo off the island:

    Home Affairs secretary Mike Pezzullo is the target of a campaign led by public sector union members pushing for an overhaul of the department’s leadership.

    A statement of no confidence in Mr Pezzullo and his senior leaders started circulating among staff on Tuesday as Community and Public Sector Union delegates and members began collecting signatures from those backing change to the department’s top ranks.

    The extraordinary petition calls for an end to years of “waste, mismanagement and chaos” at the Home Affairs Department, formerly Immigration and Border Protection.

    “Current government policies are hurting staff and our work, clearly policy change is required,” it says.

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/home-affairs-boss-mike-pezzullo-the-target-of-no-confidence-petition-20190404-p51at1.html

  41. “Last night on Sky Bronwyn Bishop said that the ALP is robbing old people with Franking Credits to pay for those with Cancer ”

    Labor will be hoping Bronnie gets out and gets that message about as much as she can.

  42. I’m rolling an idea around, that some issues (like cancer treatment) draw a number of other issues together. It creates a narrative everyone can relate to. Finding that issue and drawing (painting) the narrative is the clever part. Cancer treatment looks like it will be that issue for the election. (I wasn’t in Australia for Howard, so I missed Workchoices, but it might have been a similar tactic.)

    Modern health care is an intersection of so many things: social, moral, technical, education, research, transportation, it goes on.

    Very Clever.

  46. Ven

    I don’t need to read the article to know Twitter decides whose account gets suspended and not the Greens or Socialist Alliance on their platform.

Comments Page 8 of 17
1 … 7 8 9 … 17

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *