The night before Christmas

There is no polling to report, and I have my head buried too deep in my forthcoming federal election to report anything of substance on my own account. But with the announcement of the election universally anticipated on the weekend for either May 11 or May 18, a new open thread is very much in order, so here it is.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

801 comments on “The night before Christmas”

Comments Page 9 of 17
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  1. “Any chance we’re not getting the TPP because it makes the govt look sick as a dog?”

    I’m surprised at no TPP figure?? Voting intention is the main game at the moment so why waste money on a poll immediately pre-election and not ask it?? Only thing i can think of is that whatever the TPP is they are saving it for release on its own and have released the numbers they have as a teaser.

  2. Ten days in jail for breaching bail or Assange will be proved right about that US Grand Jury.

    Thats the black and white conclusion we are going to see.

    So crow about Assange all you like. Its not a good look for the Australian government either way.

    Yet another example of not holding to principles on human rights no matter what you think of the Swedish allegations that brought no charges.

  3. Oh, good.

    Plans to build an Apple store at Federation Square will not go ahead, after heritage authorities refused an application to demolish an existing part of the square.

    It is understood Apple has told the government they won’t proceed with the plan.

    Heritage Victoria on Friday issued a refusal to Federation Square management, which had applied to knock down the Yarra Building to make way for an Apple “global flagship” store.

    Heritage groups and a Melbourne City councillor who had vehemently opposed the Apple plan welcomed the decision, both saying the Apple store plans had been inappropriate for Melbourne.

  4. A win for people power

    I had no idea either way on this issue as I don’t live in Melbourne so have to go with the heritage authorities decision.

    @bengrubb tweets

    Plans to build an Apple store at Melbourne’s Federation Square will not go ahead, after heritage authorities refused an application to demolish an existing part of the square https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/heritage-authority-refuses-fed-square-demolition-permit-for-apple-store-20190405-p51b97.html

  5. Someone is fibbing. I could have sworn…

    BREAKING: Dept officials have just confirmed NO NEW home care packages in #Budget2019!! 128,000 vulnerable older Aust waiting for care! Aged care has NEVER been a priority for this out of touch Govt #auspol #politas

  6. Zoid

    Apple protects your privacy. It does all the other stuff other companies do. Don’t pay taxes. Exploit overseas workers. Big mark ups on products to create profits.

  7. Voters don’t seem to be swayed by their distrust of Mr Shorten, however, with more than one in three Australians in every single age bracket except aged 65 plus saying they would vote for the ALP above the Coalition.

    Older voters were the only age bracket sticking by the Coalition, with 48 per cent saying they would vote to keep the current government compared to just 28 per cent who will vote Labor.

  8. The latest from Antony Green on NSW Upper House counting. Maybe 1 more Labor but also the dire duo of Leyonhjelm and Latham. I hope you reap what you have sown, Gladys Berejiklian. Abolishing the Department of the Environment will haunt you the rest of your days because these men will only make that decision eventuate in the worst of all possible outcomes for NSW.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-05/antony-green-nsw-upper-house-legislative-council-balance/10974364

  9. That apple decision doesn’t make sense. Aren’t heritage buildings supposed to be oldish and of some aesthetic value? Fed square is full of architectural disasters that could just as well be designs from undergrad projects.

  10. nath @ #383 Friday, April 5th, 2019 – 2:08 pm

    jenauthor
    says:
    Friday, April 5, 2019 at 2:05 pm
    Am looking at the Trust numbers now – Hanson isn’t higher – you’re full of crap nath.
    __________________________________________
    I just quoted the article. And Shorten is rated as more untrustworthy than Hanson.

    “An exclusive YouGov Galaxy poll conducted for News Corp Australia reveals people trust Pauline Hanson more than the Opposition leader.”

    https://outline.com/233AtE

    Good grief !

  11. What I saw of the ‘article’ about that silly YouGov poll was totally incoherent. But it was also quite wrong in places if the SKY graphics are anything to go by.

  12. Zoid

    Not if you have been on the internet. Google and Facebook make sure of that.

    I am not saying Apple are saints here. In fact the opposite. I am just pointing out due to their excellent marketing they get focus on them a lot.

    I am sure the people of Melbourne would have been as upset with any other company that wanted to change the way Federation Square currently is used by reducing public space.

  13. All that revenue flowing in due to fanking credit and negative gearing reform and Bill Shorten can’t even mention newstart.

    Explain the logic to me please someone …?

  14. RD
    They distrust Shorten that much that he has been in front of the Libs TPP for at least 100 polls in a row.

  15. Someone earlier said they don’t trust ‘Boomers’. The age cohort “above 65” includes everyone from 65 to 100+. I think it’s time that cohort was divided.

  16. “Morriscum weaponises the health debate by … accusing shorten of weaponising the debate. A Pitch for meatheads everywhere.”

    Lol! You can see where htis goes. ScoMo matches the ALP Health plan, then Shorten ups the ante again when they have spent all their reserves in the “Budget” and ScoMo back to square -4 .

  17. Rex Douglas says:
    Friday, April 5, 2019 at 2:47 pm
    All that revenue flowing in due to fanking credit and negative gearing reform and Bill Shorten can’t even mention newstart.

    Explain the logic to me please someone …?

    As I’ve been saying Rex, there is no point in explaining these things to you. Your closed mind makes it impossible for you to understand.

  18. swamprat

    Its why political labels can be so appalling. Millennials certainly didn’t like the Avocado Toast denigration. Inner City voters don’t like being called latte sippers etc.

    There is good reason why politicians trust levels lower so much. Its very hard to trust when you are being denigrated to get an advantage with a voter in a marginal seat by a political party or polling outfit or corporate PR company.

    Edit: I include Murdoch Media as corporate PR.

  19. Rex Douglas says:
    Friday, April 5, 2019 at 2:51 pm
    steve davis @ #420 Friday, April 5th, 2019 – 2:47 pm

    RD
    They distrust Shorten that much that he has been in front of the Libs TPP for at least 100 polls in a row.
    Imagine how many more seats Labor could win with a leader voters trust and engage in …?

    ———————————

    Well Rex the liberal party and media were claiming the liberal party would gain many seats with Turnbull as leader because voters could trust and engage in Turnbull

    what happen?

  20. Things getting very heated in Economics Estimates between Senators Hume and Seselja and Keneally and McAllister.

  21. Darn @ #426 Friday, April 5th, 2019 – 2:57 pm

    Rex Douglas says:
    Friday, April 5, 2019 at 2:47 pm
    All that revenue flowing in due to fanking credit and negative gearing reform and Bill Shorten can’t even mention newstart.

    Explain the logic to me please someone …?

    As I’ve been saying Rex, there is no point in explaining these things to you. Your closed mind makes it impossible for you to understand.

    No go on give it a try…

    Newstart is acknowledged by all sane political watchers to be disgracefully low, yet with all this revenue set to flow in, not even a mention of a rise.

    The logic of that …??

  22. Imacca – Morrison is saying: this is a great gaping hole in my armour – so let’s go bipartisan! It’s beyond pathetic.

  23. Anybody have a clue as to when Morrison will front up at Yarralumla. The Australian says he has switched to campaign mode.

  24. Scott @ #429 Friday, April 5th, 2019 – 3:00 pm

    Rex Douglas says:
    Friday, April 5, 2019 at 2:51 pm
    steve davis @ #420 Friday, April 5th, 2019 – 2:47 pm

    RD
    They distrust Shorten that much that he has been in front of the Libs TPP for at least 100 polls in a row.
    Imagine how many more seats Labor could win with a leader voters trust and engage in …?

    ———————————

    Well rex the liberal party and media were claiming the liberal party would gain many seats with Turnbull as leader because voters could trust and engage in Turnbull

    what happen?

    The far right nutters in the party blew the joint up.

    What’s your point ??

  25. Darn @ #431 Friday, April 5th, 2019 – 2:57 pm

    Rex Douglas says:
    Friday, April 5, 2019 at 2:47 pm
    All that revenue flowing in due to fanking credit and negative gearing reform and Bill Shorten can’t even mention newstart.

    Explain the logic to me please someone …?

    As I’ve been saying Rex, there is no point in explaining these things to you. Your closed mind makes it impossible for you to understand.

    +1

    ESPECIALLY when it is explained to Rex Douglas.

  26. Lizzie
    “BREAKING: Dept officials have just confirmed NO NEW home care packages in #Budget2019!! 128,000 vulnerable older Aust waiting for care! Aged care has NEVER been a priority for this out of touch Govt #auspol #politas”

    Yet another cut not mentioned on budget night by the Treasurer. We have the crippled, the poor and now the old all being done over to magically produce a surplus for 2020. Was this the “hard work” Cormann referred to? Pathetic.

    Somebody really should go through the speech and the budget papers line by line to separate the facts from the Frydenbergs.

  27. I think this may explain the (surprisingly low) 33 percent ‘untrustworthy’ rating. A further 38 percent went even more negative: ‘dangerous’. So we’re up to 71 percent negative and we haven’t seen all the descriptors yet.

    The full quote – ‘Mr Shorten was rated “untrustworthy” by 34 per cent of voters. That’s slightly higher than One Nation leader Pauline Hanson, who was ranked “untrustworthy” by 33 per cent, although her key characteristic was seen as “dangerous” by 38 per cent of voters.’

    It’s a significant ‘although’ there!

  28. Re the NDIS

    I find the politicisation of this truly disgusting.

    The money is there – so fix the implementation – and don’t use any of the unused funding to promote a budget surplus.

    Where’s the decency ??

    A prime example of the lack of leadership. Would Ardern politicise this issue …?

  29. C@tmomma @ #437 Friday, April 5th, 2019 – 3:07 pm

    Darn @ #431 Friday, April 5th, 2019 – 2:57 pm

    Rex Douglas says:
    Friday, April 5, 2019 at 2:47 pm
    All that revenue flowing in due to fanking credit and negative gearing reform and Bill Shorten can’t even mention newstart.

    Explain the logic to me please someone …?

    As I’ve been saying Rex, there is no point in explaining these things to you. Your closed mind makes it impossible for you to understand.

    +1

    ESPECIALLY when it is explained to Rex Douglas.

    I’m open to your thoughts on this question too. I’m open to any thoughts on Labors logic… ??

  30. I haven’t read the detail, but on face value, as a cancer survivor, the medicare changes re cancer treatment costs is welcome, but is way overdue.

  31. What percentage of Labor voters want Newstart raised.

    If thats a majority why wouldn’t Labor do it?
    It can’t be worries about losing the election when Sinodinos says its too low.

  32. Darn says:
    Friday, April 5, 2019 at 3:07 pm
    Sorry Rex. I’m sure you are a decent bloke, but frankly it’s like talking to a brick wall.
    —————————–
    If you talk to a brick wall you get no response. That is better then a silly response.

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