There is no polling to report, and I have my head buried too deep in my forthcoming federal election to report anything of substance on my own account. But with the announcement of the election universally anticipated on the weekend for either May 11 or May 18, a new open thread is very much in order, so here it is.
AM reporters this morning doing yet another of their inane voxpop – this time in the marginal seat of Petrie…
of the 4 interviews aired asking what they thought about the budget, 3 were of the usual “dont have a feking clue/don’t give a fek” variety and the fourth said his vote would be swayed by the governments pledge to increase mental health funding alone.
These idiotic voxpops serve one purpose and one purpose alone – to make you even more depressed about the state of our democracy
“I did note that the 10 Year Bond Yield was referred to by Shorten in his Budget reply speech last night”
That was a good one. I put that together with what i have read about the bond yield inversion (which we are seein gnow) being a long lead indicator of a recession. Validates the apparent approach by the ALP of actually going easy (in context of the size of their “warchest” ) on spending. They know there is a reasonable chance they will have to manage their way through a recession during their first term and are preparing for that
But of course the Liberals are just soooooooooooooooo much better economic managers. 🙂
Assange to be expelled from Ecuadorian embassy ‘within hours or days’: WikiLeaks
Victoria @ #188 Friday, April 5th, 2019 – 10:30 am
Good on you Victoria. Some well overdue pushback against the wild hysteria and hyperbole.
C@t Nath just had to read an article like https://thewest.com.au/opinion/andrew-probyn/shorten-tests-napoleon-tactics-in-federal-elections-final-days-ng-ya-110849
Ok, I had my Valium and a lie down as advised, and after the budget reply and reporting, I’m moving my prediction for the next round of polls back to 52/53:28/47. Even with media hype, they are not going to get much bounce out of this. Shorten’s reply has been pitch perfect.
I also sense today that news media might be about to go easy on the soon to be labor government so as to avoid too much recriminations. There is a sense of resignation in today’s reporting and non-reporting rather than attacking Labor’s response, which says to me that they know which package is more electorally popular and sound.
The libs are going to have to go nuclear in nastiness and negativity, and if labor aims high when they go low (and tells voters that is what they are doing) they will repeat benefit. ScoMo has tried to be the daggy dad/good bloke, but you can only hide they fact that you are a complete and nasty c@#t for so long. the mask will slip.
I’ll fully relax when I see the next polls, but I think we’re back to business as usual.
Pity parliament didn’t run one more day – I wanted to see Price and Co face more questions. in a normal sitting she/they should have had to resign for awarding grants before funding rounds opened.
I watched the BRS and thought it was a good entree for the coming election campaign, firstly it showed the ALP was inclusive of all by allowing some generosity to the middle income and the well-off plus giving a more generous financial hand to the less well-off.
Then it showed the ALP as investing in the future generations via TAFE, child caring, university places as well as the aged by training for more carers, investments in alternate energy, trades and technology.
The speech also showed Mr Shorten as a competent and inclusive leader by his referring to architects of some of the policies, he also came across as steady, forward thinking and planning and a safe pair of hands.
While not doing as much to repair Medicare as I hoped, the cancer policy has resulted in a couple of things, firstly it has shown the ALP’s dedication to Medicare plus it has generated plenty of discussion, no matter whether the media is trying to belittle the BRS or talk it up, one of the headlines, sub-headlines or first paragraphs has highlighted that Labor to spend $2.3B on cancer among other things. This has got to resonate with the public.
In my opinion a good start to the election campaign that has rendered the lnp on the backfoot with the ALP’s first shot.
Not to forget, the ALP still has plenty in savings from denying the second and third tranches of the tax cuts. I expect there will be more spending to come, possible for those even more disadvantaged such as those on Newstart or pensions while at the same time the ALP will still be able to push some of the ‘saved’ money back to reduce future deficits.
Some good for the environment, the country, the people, no one got everything they wanted but it seems most, if not all, got some of what they wanted so overall a good beginning.
“Ok, I had my Valium and a lie down as advised, and after the budget reply and reporting, I’m moving my prediction for the next round of polls back to 52/53:28/47. Even with media hype, they are not going to get much bounce out of this. Shorten’s reply has been pitch perfect. ”
Oh thank fark for that SF.
If I was Sergeant on the line, you’d have been doing night patrols into enemy territory until you demonstrated a greater belief in victory, soldier.
As you were. And next time the enemy is demoralised, please keep your doubts to yourself!
Big A Adrian
‘These idiotic voxpops serve one purpose and one purpose alone ”
Vox pops are filler. Plus it gives viewers someone to relate to – in theory. However, my visceral response to the vast majority of voters featured in these vox pop pieces is “Yikes, what an idiot.”
Looking at the reports about door knocking in Pearce made me think that the pollsters ask the wrong question – and focus on the wrong people.
I reckon they should ask respondents if they usually preference Labor or Coalition and then ask how they feel about voting that way at the next election. I remember in 2013 that I was very unhappy voting Labor and only did so because the alternative in my view was worse (a view that was subsequently corroborated with bells on).
You won’t get rusted on Liberals voting Labor no matter how bad the Liberals are. They’ll still tell themselves how much worse Bill Shorten is or how Labor will steal their life savings if Labor gets elected. But they will be unhappy having to vote for a political party that they feel has let them down badly. And those swinging voters who hold back on a decision until the election will be very likely to go with the zeitgeist.
I saw that Brian Owler was in Parliament for the Budget Reply. Would not be surprised if he had a lot of input. Always helps to deal with smart people who know their stuff
Kakaru
Like Self selecting talkback polls
Its to get a “feel” for what the voters are thinking. Its always open to the bias of the person conducting the poll.
I do believe the ABC tries to not do this but it can’t help it. It has editors.
“If I was Sergeant on the line, you’d have been doing night patrols into enemy territory until you demonstrated a greater belief in victory, soldier.”
Lol!
I reckon Shorten has not only read and understood his Sun Tzu, but also his Monash.
Head up a team, plan and consult, gather resources, plan and consult and explain, play all the pieces in an integrated and coordinated fashion for the set piece phase, and be flexible to exploit opportunities that arise as the situation develops. Crush your enemies and hear the lamentaion of their significant others. 🙂
TPOF
The US tries to do that with registered vs likely voters.
We have seen the accuracy of that approach. I like the way our polls are conducted but like you wish we could get more indications of things polling can miss.
The Victorian State election showed why its a false economy to only poll marginal seats. You don’t pick up what can happen in the non marginals.
@PSyvret tweets
News Ltd appears to have abandoned any pretence of even vaguely impartial reporting and gone full-throat partisan. Compare the pair: https://twitter.com/PSyvret/status/1113971166396342272/photo/1
Everyone
I apologise for starting Nathpoleon off and go on about Napoleon last night. This seems to have set the horses loose in the top paddock in regard to Nath’s compulsive obsession with Shorten.
Shorten at this stage appears to have exceeded the expectations of his most loyal supporters therefore the profound effect this is having on Nath is not surprising.
Nath may not recover from the up-coming Federal election.
KayJay @ 11.08am
Many thanks, my friend. Your posts are high on my list of those to which I very much look forward.
My scrolling finger is arthritic, alas, and I’d rather not use a block. However, I have taken your advice (as well as a cup of coffee and a Kit Kat) and am now back to my usual humour.
Peace to all.
kevjohnno @ #261 Friday, April 5th, 2019 – 11:42 am
Okay, thanks for that. Mea culpa.
Still, who would be so obsessed as to remember an article from 2016!?!
@bencjenkins goes on a rant
I’ve been trying to work out what, exactly, about these Pyne send offs from the gallery are making my blood boil quite the way it is.
It’s not that he did nothing of note in his career to actually make anyone’s life but his own better (he didn’t) or that his politics were the kind that are making this country objectively worse (they were)…
… or that he managed to make palatable some of the nastier and crueler policies of the various governments he served with his cheeky chappy shtick (he did) or that the people meant to hold him to account lapped it up (they did)…
It’s that underpinning all these tributes is the bizarre assumption that being a politician is in and of itself a public service, rather than a job that is easier and better paid than the overwhelming majority of means of employment in this country.
“I apologise for starting Nathpoleon off and go on about Napoleon last night.”
Dont think it reflects badly on Shorten at all. That painting in Shortens office? Maybe he keeps it as an in the face reminder of how not to fark up with overreach the way the little Frenchman did?? 🙂
We’re not as clever as we think, and neither was Napoleon. 150 years ago Minard illustrated Napoleon’s Russian Campaign in a single graphic. It shows “…Napoleon’s army departing the Polish-Russian border. A thick band illustrates the size of his army at specific geographic points during their advance and retreat. It displays six types of data in two dimensions: the number of Napoleon’s troops; the distance traveled; temperature; latitude and longitude; direction of travel; and location relative to specific dates.” Note the temperatures are below zero, where parts of the army separated and returned, the battle casualties. It’s an amazing graphic. (Minard was a civil engineer.)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Joseph_Minard
antonbruckner11 @ #268 Friday, April 5th, 2019 – 12:03 pm
Yes, I noticed that as well. I wonder if John Alexander has given up yet? 😉
It’s pretty obvious the painting in Shorten’s office is there to remind him not invade Russia.
And so far it’s working, because he hasn’t invaded Russia at all.
antonbruckner
“I saw that Brian Owler was in Parliament for the Budget Reply.”
Hopefully Owler will soon be sitting in Parliament on a more permanent basis. Alas, Bennelong may be a bridge too far for the ALP.
That graphic shows that the smart ones gave up early, turned around and came back to safety. 🙂
C@t re: private hospitals: “Every room is a single room. With its own en suite and balcony. Higher nurse to patient ratios and the equivalent of a restaurant kitchen providing all meals freshly-cooked on site. All the therapists you need for your recovery. Including Aromatherapy and Yoga. You get what you pay for and you pay for what you get.”
At least in relation to (advanced) cancer, the VCCC (aka “Peter Mac”) is a public hospital with better facilities than most if not all private hospitals (as well as better therapy, as one would expect):
– better nurse / patient ratio than in major private hospitals
– mostly private rooms (there are some two patient rooms, but they are about twice the size and appear to be there due to architectural constraints rather than as a cost saving). No private balconies but there are some shared areas open to outside and a very large roof garden. Privacy is often less of a concern for advanced cancer patients than for others.
– better food than in most private hospitals ( and a large number of dieticians attending to patients daily ); they benchmark against the French, so having bad food would be an embarrassment
– comprehensive physiotherapy (and mostly a given patient has the same physiotherapist for the entire admission)
– they appear to be the leading centre for cancer exercise physiology (about half the authors of the COSA exercise guidelines are from the VCCC); they don’t have an in-house oncology-rehab gym (but neither do most private hospitals; instead rehab gyms are outside, which means commencement of high intensity exercise is delayed until after discharge)
– the well-being centre has yoga at least, not sure about aromatherapy
– post-discharge nursing, which moreover is provided by nurses with specialised oncology nursing training
– ability to try things (whilst remaining relatively safe), which is attractive to many patients, in particular younger patients
– extremely high morale, both of staff and also of most patients
The last point seems quite important and relates the fact that they only treat cancer (plus a few other things that either require therapies developed for cancer or where the condition is not understood), and also to the ability to keep trying things in an attempt to improve patients’ outcomes. These mean that everyone is part of the same “team”, so to speak and gives rise to camaraderie amongst patients that must be a positive thing.
“I don’t think the taxpayers of Australia want their Medicare Levy increased to cover all that.”
Well if the “comprehensive cancer centre” model is superior then one might find that taxpayers would support such a centre in each capital. In relation to rhwombat’s point about regions each such centre should also provide coordination of and support to care delivered in the regions (not sure how effective that is of course)
Burgey
“It’s pretty obvious the painting in Shorten’s office is there to remind him not invade Russia.”
Maybe Fraser Anning’s office has a portrait of Hitler for the same reason. Or not.
Emphasis on working Australians, working mums, working….is not inclusive of all.
ACOSS: https://www.acoss.org.au/media_release/acoss-welcomes-labors-commitment-to-funding-services-over-high-end-tax-cuts-but-people-on-newstart-again-left-behind/
“Coalition divide on Adani”
The Agreements in regard this project, including the bridges required to be crossed, are in black and white – hence it is to all intent and purpose proceeding and hence the Murdoch headline.
This project proceeding is down to compliance.
Which includes the financial capability of Adani – noting the response of Labor that they will not commit money to the project.
I take it therefore that the divide on Adani within the Coalition is over the (Federal) government providing financial support (directly or in kind).
What we do know from reporting is that no Australian bank will lend including to a party to a consortium of financiers and that there has been difficulty attracting any lenders again including as a consortium partner which is the normal risk mitigation response with such projects.
The risk is spread.
Past that we get to any relevance of Murdoch and other media in the Australia of 2019.
I would suggest the headlines in the Sporting Pages and the racing fields are what are viewed.
I’ve spent time in private hospitals and not ALL provide single rooms. Several surgeries (admittedly only for a day or 3) I had 1 or even 2 sharing my room. Food was also pretty shit.
It all depends on which hospital your doctor works out of.
“News Ltd appears to have abandoned any pretence of even vaguely impartial reporting and gone full-throat partisan. ”
You obviously missed 1975 …
I think it would be disastrous if Shorten invaded Russia.
Particularly now winter is coming (at least in the Southern Hemisphere).
the Oz’s front page doesn’t even convince themselves. They are stuck with the fact that Labor has a policy to close tax loopholes used by the well off to avoid tax in order to give bigger tax breaks and invest in health, education and services. This is will resonate with most. 99% of the people negatively effected by labors policies are already LNP voters.
and then Labor has got a workable climate and energy policy (this is the BIG issue anyone under the age of 40 and anyone with young kids – I’ve had my 13 y.o. say “I don’t think I’ll have kids. It wouldn’t be fair on them.” – at which point I pretended to be much more optimistic about human capacity for ingenuity and change than I actually am) and a team who don’t appear to hate each other.
the lib bounce – based on betting odds – was over within 48 hours – it probably won’t even register in the polls. Sorry to have doubted, but I’m ready for the media to throw everything they have against shorten and worry he won’t stand up to it. So far, so good. If the libs get no movement to them, there will be melt down and the brawling LNP rats will hit fight (each other) or flight mode.
Did someone say “winter is coming”?
Late Riser
I only found out about that graphic a few years ago – it is brilliant and is considered the forerunner of much that is modern graphic data illustration.
Imperial Russia was probably lucky Tsar Morrison was not leading them – he would have been promoting his own brilliance with advertising campaigns telling everyone that things were going beautifully and that Napoleon and La Grande Armee were nothing to worry about.
Meanwhile Marshall Dutton and Border Force would be busy making sure to stop boat arrivals!
Eh, I’m a reasonably interested voter, and my response to the Budget would be ‘I don’t give a …’ Seriously, I haven’t read a word of commentary. I don’t care.
I won’t be voting for Morrison, nothing in the Budget would change my mind, and I don’t expect him to be around to implement it. I also expect that anything that wasn’t a favour to a Liberal mate wouldn’t have been implemented anyway as the economy ‘mysteriously’ weakens post-election. The Libs have both shown themselves shameless liars, and hopelessly incompetent administrators, as demonstrated yet again by Price’s grants scandal. Roll on the election.
Here’s some actual polling from the US that shows Biden as the Democrat front runner for the Presidential nomination. Long way to go. But, looks encouraging.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html
@Ausdroid tweets
Telstra commences construction on improved mobile reception and Wi-Fi on the Newcastle and Central Coast Line in NSW https://ausdroid.net/2019/04/05/telstra-commences-construction-on-improved-mobile-reception-and-wi-fi-on-the-newcastle-and-central-coast-line-in-nsw/ https://twitter.com/Ausdroid/status/1113977370069884928/photo/1
So…now that the Muppets have committed to closing Xmas Island Detention Center after their photo op, and banked the “savings” from that in the Budget, how will it play if a boat arrives?? 🙂
I say this in ignorance, but I think if we had a “proper” NBN then regional medical services could include real-time imaging diagnostics without having the patient travel to one of the major cities. My OH reminded me of an “Australian Story” episode that touched on lots of topics but set in a regional hospital. Simply installing live TV at the hospital in Katherine gave them the ability to diagnose their patients more quickly with all that implies for the patient’s outcome.
In itself hospital FTTP NBN would be a valuable next step. Pointing out how the coalition’s NBN policy has failed regional Australians would also be a good thing.
As long as ALP can hide Shorten away they should be safe. His inability to answer in anything other than slogans really hurts and people don’t trust him, but the same was the case with Abbott. Only difference is people thought Abbott was stupid whereas people think Shorten is smug. Not sure which one the voters will hate more.
Big A Adrian @ #247 Friday, April 5th, 2019 – 8:28 am
Pearce is a huge electorate which covers a number of growth suburbs of Perth’s north and north east, and goes inland to cover country towns to the east of Perth. When the seat was created in 1990 it was very much a rural seat and has gradually urbanised since.
In the metropolitan part of the seat, there are a couple of very wealthy established suburbs and all of the Perth’s north and north eastern expansion suburbs. The regional/rural parts of the electorate have all the same problems as every other rural/regional area in Australia, with one exception (Northam) they are solidly conservative.
The changes in Pearce are mainly demographic. Compounding this is that Porter is a very poor local member, being nearly invisible in the electorate in his capacity as a local member.
I am no financial expert but it is interesting to hear someone here in NZ trying to explain their system to me. Confusing for me as NZSuper is like our pension and KiwiSaver is like our superannuation.
Would be interesting to know relative poverty in elderly here compared to Australia . Apparently something like 45% over 65 retirees surviving only on pension.
Guytaur
Indeed.
A reminder about Fields prior to the election:
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/dec/20/nsw-mp-jeremy-buckingham-quits-greens-and-will-run-as-an-independent-at-election
The NSW Greens co-convenor, Rochelle Flood, has called on Field to resign so that his spot can be filled by a Greens member.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/05/nsw-greens-mp-justin-field-quits-party-to-sit-on-crossbench
Buckingham who quit the Greens and ran as an independent during the NSW state election will not be re-elected. Since his departure Greens membership is on the up after a loss of hundreds.
Bill Shorten, by so strongly highlighting the plight of cancer patients in this 21st century first-world country of ours, has already done a massive favour to those who have, or one day will, contract cancer. He has refocused our national public policy debate away from finger pointing or back slapping over fiscal projections and fiscal history, and placed it squarely upon the question why those struck down by cancer are left so much to their own devices to manage. Thank you, Bill Shorten.
Burgey @ #273 Friday, April 5th, 2019 – 12:18 pm
Nah, it was Abbott’s job to invade Russia. Straight after he shirt fronted Putin…
It would seem that Shortens Budget Reply has gone over extremely well, not only on the PBs, but as BKs media references make quite clear,(even the Australians criticism was muted ), other commentary was also positive, as were Tingles and Richardsons on 730 last night. Bill handled Sales well also. A very positive performance from a politician supposedly with poor public perceptions.
I felt Shortens focus on Medicare and Cancer treatment costs was a masterstroke. Whereas the Governments focus was on the economy, tax cuts and Labors ” clear and present danger to the economy “, ( ie fear) Shortens focus on people was an example of humanity before economy, practicality before ideology.
It would appear that the COALitions hopes of a Budget bounce has foundered. The forthcoming polls will be eagerly anticipated, not only by we PBers, but also Labor. I don’t think the Government would be so eager, however.
Yesterday someone mentioned the numbers of viewers who tuned into the Budget on Tuesday night. Anyone know the response last night? Was MAFS on last night ?
grimace
Porter was also a Dutton supporter wasn’t he? I know this is working against Sukkar in Deakin in Victoria
GG
“Here’s some actual polling from the US that shows Biden as the Democrat front runner for the Presidential nomination. Long way to go. But, looks encouraging.”
Based on other candidates (especially Sanders), the popularity of a candidate drops once they officially enter the race. Not sure why, but it’s a thing.
GG
The polls don’t mean much at this stage. Biden has not entered the race yet. Maybe others will too though they are leaving it too long to make it to the debate stage by the criteria if they do.
What we do know is the polls will count after the debates not before.
Out of the candidates in the Democratic field so far Sanders is the front runner until Biden enters and then he will be second.
So voters are going to get a choice of left or centre candidate to choose from. Its going to be interesting out of which lane that candidate comes from. Its then going to be interesting on how that candidate can take on Trump.
The advantage for the left candidates is that all the candidates no matter if they come from the left or the centre are going to be attacked by the GOP for being socialists. So if thats the case advantage to the candidates on the left who won’t be attacked for being something they are not.
The Mid Terms showed that attack line is wearing thin and that as voters embrace Universal Health Care as they see Canada Australia the EU The UK etc have Universal Health Care and none of those countries can be called socialists.
The Overton Window has shifted.