The night before Christmas

There is no polling to report, and I have my head buried too deep in my forthcoming federal election to report anything of substance on my own account. But with the announcement of the election universally anticipated on the weekend for either May 11 or May 18, a new open thread is very much in order, so here it is.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

801 comments on “The night before Christmas”

Comments Page 4 of 17
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  3. Part of the subtlety of the proposed Medicare cancer programme is that it not only looks intrinsically worthwhile, but also exemplifies why government spending isn’t a bad thing in itself. So when the coalition criticises the notion of “ALP taxing and spending”, the response can be to point to a form of government spending which nobody can oppose.

  4. The trouble for the government is that by releasing the budget before the election and spruking their “ economic credentials “ on the back of some bullshit surplus they are locked in. They have very little room to move on more spending commitements.

    If they do try to match the labor $3 billion on cancer then the whole budget is blown up. They have tied their whole strategy around this budget.

    That is not to say they will not try to match labor but if they do they have no budget. It will be blown up within days of it being bought down.

    Very poor look indeed.

  6. I get the politics of singling cancer out in the Reply speech and think thats an excellent reason to single cancer out.

    I just hope those abolishing fees are across the board and don’t just apply to cancer patients.

    Their are many chronic conditions that require multiple visits to specialists and the like. Mental Health is another area this applies to. Keep the Universal in Medicare and don’t single a single illness out in policy.

  7. Your obsession with Shorten is disturbing Nath. Find yourself a therapist mate. Fast.
    ______________________________________
    I already did. I said. I’m interested in what kind of person is going to be the next PM. I’ve read a few articles and David Marr’s Faction Man. Is this a problem? Some people on the internet think im obsessed.

    Therapist replied that they were most likely using ‘obsession’ as a way to undermine my arguments by bullshit aspersions on my mental health.

  9. Doorknocking yesterday afternoon in Pearce….the Lib budget has barely registered with voters and moved none of them. It will change nothing. Generally red shirts attract favourable responses from voters….very favourable, with plenty of encouragement offered….Labor are going to win Pearce quite comfortably. No doubt Shorten’s reply will simply consolidate existing intentions.

  11. Jeez, and there were people on this blog who thought that Labor was silly to have announced, a year ago, that it was going to rolled back some tax benefits. The coup de grace will come in the last week of the campaign when Labor has made a lot more spending commitments than the Govt AND will end up with a bigger surplus than the govt. Nothing hurt Labor more at the last election than that. Yet, the govt has fallen into a big hole by telling Labor exactly what its surplus will be. Now Labor can work around that. Thanks guys.

  12. nath @ #157 Friday, April 5th, 2019 – 9:59 am

    Your obsession with Shorten is disturbing Nath. Find yourself a therapist mate. Fast.
    ______________________________________
    I already did. I said. I’m interested in what kind of person is going to be the next PM. I’ve read a few articles and David Marr’s Faction Man. Is this a problem? Some people on the internet think im obsessed.

    Therapist replied that they were most likely using ‘obsession’ as a way to undermine my arguments by bullshit aspersions on my mental health.

    Gee, didn’t realise that what you had were ‘arguments’.

    Must be the a code word for egregious bullshit for those inhabiting a narcissistic fantasy world.

  13. Although Bill didn’t exactly set the House on fire last night, his emphasis on cancer was note-worthy insofar as most dread this disease and the services the promised will resonate with the punters. Well done Labor strategists.

  15. Eliminating or at least substantially reducing out of pocket costs for cancer patients is a good place to start.

    Out of pocket costs don’t serve a useful purpose for public goods such as health care and education.

    We should be getting rid of them.

    It is much more efficient to have a monetarily sovereign national government acting as the single payer for those goods, investing in additions to supply where appropriate, and putting downward pressure on the prices paid to providers.

    Doing this is good for community welfare and for price stability as well.

    Health care price inflation would be less significant if the government was paying all of the bills and exercising tight control over what it pays.

    When the federal government deals with health care providers, the federal government holds nearly all of the cards.

    It pays most of the bills (80 percent of doctors’ income is from the federal government).

    It decides how many Medicare Provider Numbers to issue and it can attach whatever conditions and criteria it likes to what doctors have to do to get and retain a Medicare Provider Number.

    It strongly influences the supply side of health care by deciding how many university places to fund and how many trainee positions are available in the public hospital system.

    The only card that medical lobbies have is that doctors are in general much more highly esteemed than politicians in general.

    But an authentic and charismatic political leader with a compelling message can neutralize this factor.

    Gough Whitlam was able to do it when he introduced Medibank, and Bob Hawke was able to do it when he reinstated Medibank in the form of Medicare.

  18. Mavis

    Yes I agree politically. I am just making the point I hope that these policies won’t be quarantined to Cancer only.

    Its indicative of the lack of the LNP political antenna they have not already come up with this critique.
    Of course when you oppose in your heart the entire concept of Universal Medicare it probably just does not occur to you.

  19. Anyway, I’m off to do stuff. Check out Pyne’s goodbye speech, it was a good one:

    “I do not have a log cabin story like so many people in this place – but I once did have to get my own lemon for a gin and tonic,” he said.
    “That may or may not qualify.”
    With nine election wins under his belt, Mr Pyne said he was going to “miss the stage” and his fellow MPs.
    “This place brings out the best of us and the worst in us,” he said.
    “I’ve seen some truly dreadful people come through here over the last quarter of a century, Mr Speaker. It is true.”

    https://www.sbs.com.au/news/christopher-pyne-takes-a-final-bow

  20. Jenauthor:

    Any ideas of locations for the regional centres? I ask because our Lib MP has been trying to wedge the state Labor govt over a regional cancer treatment centre here, and I’d laugh if it were a federal Labor govt that delivered it.

  21. Labor is messing with Morisson’s mind with great skill. Now the liar from the shire is trying to show that he is a man of great compassion and sensitivity – not the bully boy ad-man that we have come to know and hate.
    If anybody’s still listening they are unlikely to buy this latest change in direction.

    All they have left is some bullshit dirt file revelation in the last week of the campaign.
    That you can bet on.

  24. My OH has returned home from his dramatic adventure this morning.

    I have clearer story as to what unfolded.
    He was in warehouse and he heard several loud pops. Went outside to investigate and saw huge plumes of smoke and fire and stuff exploding metres into air.
    A man in fluoro was running towards him in distress. He grabbed hold of him and calmed him down. He was incoherent and babbling. He calmed down and said I was driving forklift and lifting barrel and all of a sudden explosion and I told everyone get out. OH got him some water and got him to lay down on nature strip to settle down. He then told OH that EPA were there other day and had given notice to shut them down.
    He kept saying I cant believe I’m alive.

    Anyhoo the firies will be working on this for days.

  25. What did the EU do to have the State Broadcaster beaming its BritNat propaganda at them even after the Brit State leaves the EU?

  26. Scott would not want any Senate Estimates sessions to proceed next week. Parliament will have to be shut down before Monday.

    My pick is Sunday afternoon. That allows two more days of taxpayer funded Coalition party ads.

  27. cat: “there is no way that our Public Hospital system could make the sort of changes that would make every Public Hospital a Private Hospital.”

    ————————-

    it might if we have a more comprehensive, holistic approach to health and wellbeing that signficantly reduces the number of people who end up in hospital.

    Lets start thinking outside the box, and as a nation start making long term investments in preventative health care. Promoting exercise: the Australian Sports Commission recently launched their “move it Oz” initiative, with the hashtag “find your 30” – as in take 30 minutes every day to exercise. Lets go even further, and start mandating employers to allocate 30-45 minutes for all employees to exercise. Healthy eating: lets start doing what most other OECD countries do and actually start taxing sugary foods and drinks. Subsidise fresh fruit and veges. Preventative care: make GP clinics more accessible and more affordable – extend bulk billing. If there are a shortage of doctors, invest in training more. The GP clinic is critically important for nipping in the bud problems that if left unchecked, just end up clogging up hospitals and specialist care units. This is why that proposed GP tax in the 2014 budget was so mind-numbingly dumb – it does the exact opposite of what a viable health system needs – we need to encourage GP vists, not discourage them. Medical research: lets invest seriously in finding cures and more effective treatments to alleviate the pressure on hospital beds.

    A serious, well thought out long term strategic approach to health in general – aimed specifically at people while they are healthy before they clog up the hospitals – is what we should be aiming for – as the path to eliminating out of pocket health care costs, and reduce the burden on our health care system. In the end its a very simple formala: a healthy society = less sick people in hospital = better healthcare when you need it.

  29. Greensborough Growler @ #179 Friday, April 5th, 2019 – 10:18 am

    Estimates reveal that the LNP’s target for EVs is the same as labors!

    https://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/electric-cars-need-grid-cash-frydenberg/news-story/5754d6f363a5769fe226e534e0faa95e

    This is why Morrison doesn’t want the election announcement to drag on through next week. It allows another week of Senate Estimates.

    I reckon the announcement will be made early Sunday morning then Morrison will hop on a plane to Sydney and go to church and pray for a miracle. 😆

  30. SCOUT @ #25 Friday, April 5th, 2019 – 7:45 am

    How should i respond to this from the mother in law. ……PM Arden ( after i said how impressive she has been) should not of worn the scarf on her head as it endorses oppression of women ( please note my mother in law is by no needs someone who usually shows this concern but to me it is an opportunity to be seen to be having a ‘righteous intelligent’ crack) ?????

    All i could say was lets leave that there

    Another poster who believes ‘of’ is a verb.

    Was it taken from some of the toxic sludge circulating on social media? Or is it her own opinion?

  31. The coup de grace will come in the last week of the campaign when Labor has made a lot more spending commitments than the Govt AND will end up with a bigger surplus than the govt. Nothing hurt Labor more at the last election than that. Yet, the govt has fallen into a big hole by telling Labor exactly what its surplus will be. Now Labor can work around that. Thanks guys.

    Yep this.

    Labor’s plans for 2016 would have seen the budget in a stronger position in the long term (10 year) forecasts, but over the 4 year estimates they had higher deficits/lower surplus than the government projections. This was seized on by Trumble and given a massive run by the media. Shorten and Bowen won’t be making that error again.

    When the treasury costings of the competing offers come out in the last week, Labor will have spent more on ‘nice things’ that affect the majority, given bigger or matching tax cuts to the bottom 80% of earners, AND delivered bigger surpluses for each and every year of the forward projections.

    Stunt will be left shouting to the rusted ons that still didn’t even abandon the Libs after knifing Trumble.

  32. Fess

    It has been a very eventful morning.

    One more thing. OH told this guy to call his family and let them know he was okay. And guy kept saying let me get my bearings cos I cant believe I’m still alive. He was in deep shock.

  33. Pyne, quoted by Nath:
    “I’ve seen some truly dreadful people come through here over the last quarter of a century, Mr Speaker. It is true.”

    He just had to look in the mirror.

    More than just about anyone, he dragged the Australian Parliament into the gutter. He has no ministerial achievements, he spent his whole career playing silly Parliamentary games. And even for a “Liberal”, he has an uncanny ability to lie with a straight face.

    Good riddance.

  35. Heard this morning that Morrison was apoplectic in his Office last night. Staff were running around like headless chooks. Morrison is devastated by Shorten’s Cancer policies.
    He is demanding to know how nobody saw this coming and from his advisors why no one thought of this themselves.
    Much fear and loathing in the Office today.
    It was also noted to me that there is NO mention of an election date in the office as yet. Not one.

  36. I think Nath has received the talking point instructions from Liberal HQ to concentrate on Shorten. Why? Because the budget is a dud. Once people read the fine print the good outcomes are wishes based on dubious assumptions and the benefits are either years away or already matched by Labor.

  37. You can’t imagine how many shonky workplaces have been allowed to fester and bloom under the Coalition’s look the other way IR system. Young kids trying to get a foot on the ladder are being exploited and made to work in the most all around dreadful conditions imaginable. Not to mention being paid a pittance for the ‘opportunity’.

  39. Zoidlord @ #4970 Friday, April 5th, 2019 – 10:08 am

    I hope more scans and tests other than cancer will be included in bulk billing

    Not yet they won’t. Oncology (cancers – it is not one disease, but many of them) is very different from most other disease processes. Cancers are usually diseases of later life, and the precipitating and contributing factors are too complex and variable to allow significant prevention (as has happened with childbearing & childhood illnesses, infectious diseases, hypertension, cardiovascular disease, diabetes etc.). The diagnosis and treatment of cancers has become much more effective (though rarely curative), but also more complex and expensive. This tranch of Medicare funding will be the third disease-specific directly Federally-funded national health-altering programs (the first two being national provision of dialysis and transplantation in the 70s and HIV and its corollaries, Sexual Health and viral hepatitis prevention and treatment programs form the 90s). It is groundbreaking.

  40. That Melbourne factory now ablaze had its liscence suspended by the EPA a couple of weeks ago for inadequate processes for managing toxic waste:

    “The factory at the centre of blaze is listed to Bradbury Industrial Services, which had its licence suspended by the EPA last month. The EPA found the company was storing more waste than permitted, and that storage containers were not adequately handled and were outside an adequately bunded area.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/victoria/the-intensity-is-enormous-up-to-100-firefighters-battle-huge-toxic-inferno-in-melbourne-s-north-20190405-p51b1k.html

  41. and from his advisors why no one thought of this themselves

    Ha. As if a bunch of hacks employed solely to come up with stunts and smears would even dream of one day having a constructive thought. They didn’t think of it themselves because they’re Liberals.

  42. nath @ #40 Friday, April 5th, 2019 – 8:15 am

    Of course it’s not much of a surprise perhaps that a man with the intellectual range of a used car salesman has Napoleon as his hero. There are undoubtedly many hack politicians who probably do too.

    Bollocks!
    You can get away with character assessments which are just your opinions, but Shorten has the academic attainments to prove his intellectual ability which is very high.

  44. Steve777. It is hard to capture what a despicable bag of s… Pyne was. 25 years of student games. Then off with his tax-payer funded pension. Someone else described him as a careerist ghoul. I think that captures him perfectly. Always about the politics and the game with him. Never about US.

  45. NO mention of an election date in the office as yet. Not one….Paralysed deer in the headlights.
    Pretty sure he won’t enjoy the trip to the GG to sign his own death warrant!

  46. Steve777 @ #183 Friday, April 5th, 2019 – 10:26 am

    Pyne, quoted by Nath:
    “I’ve seen some truly dreadful people come through here over the last quarter of a century, Mr Speaker. It is true.”

    He just had to look in the mirror.

    More than just about anyone, he dragged the Australian Parliament into the gutter. He has no ministerial achievements, he spent his whole career playing silly Parliamentary games. And even fir a “Liberal”, he has an uncanny ability to lie with a straight face.

    Good riddance.

    Pyne was a gaffe prone egotist who leaves the Parliament after 25 years without a signature piece legislation that made any difference to anyone.

  47. Red13 @ 10.27am

    Leaving aside whether that’s what was actually happening, the question of why nobody in the government thought of the Medicare cancer programme themselves is a very good one (which, of course, the PM should be putting to himself first and foremost). And the answer, really, is that when privatisation, individualism and demonisation of government are your main items of faith, you simply don’t turn your mind so much to big things that government can usefully do. Personally, I’m hoping that during the campaign the Labor Party will take this issue head on, and point out that government isn’t the problem (a la Ronald Reagan), but is the primary mechanism we use to work cooperatively as a community to solve problems. I suspect this would really resonate: most of us are social beings, tending towards cooperation rather than competition.

  48. ”
    antonbruckner11 says:
    Friday, April 5, 2019 at 10:09 am
    Field wasn’t even elected. He replaced John Kaye, whose boots he was not fit to wipe.
    ”
    anton
    Is it just possible that underhanded deal happened between Field & LNP, where Field gets favourable treatment regarding something for his vote.

  49. @timdunlop tweets

    Did you see this? The bit on who media turn to for commentary is interesting. Spoiler alert: banks. And Deloittes.
    https://www.streem.com.au/2019/04/03/tax-cuts-the-big-winners-with-journos.html https://twitter.com/sallymcmanus/status/1113733357567766530

    Why is Deloittes a big multinational accounting firm always used by the @abcnews as somehow “independent”. They are not. How about you get economists who are academics with alternative views? #budgetreply

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