If you’re reading this on Tuesday morning, the results of the Essential Research poll should be available at The Guardian, but I’m on Sydney time right now and thus unable to post it overnight like I normally would (UPDATE: See below). What we do have is the latest quarterly state breakdowns from Newspoll in The Australian, which aggregate the four polls published so far this year. Some of these results seem a bit quirky this time out – the political class will be looking askance at the finding that the Coalition has recovered three points in Victoria, and that the Greens vote is lower there than that it is in New South Wales and Queensland. Nonetheless, let the record note that poll has Labor’s lead steady at 54-46 in New South Wales, but down from 56-44 to 53-47 in Victoria, 54-46 to 53-47 in Queensland, 53-47 to 51-49 in Western Australia, and 58-42 to 56-44 in South Australia. Labor’s national lead in this period fell to 53-47 from 55-45 in the previous quarter. The Australian has packed the full results into one report, rather than rolling out state and then age, gender and region breakdowns like they sometimes do. Apart from the age breakdowns (not to mention the leadership ratings), you can find the primary vote numbers in the BludgerTrack poll results archive.
With the Newspoll numbers in hand, I have finally done what I would regard as a proper full update of BludgerTrack for the first time since the start of the year. Up to now, I have just been updating the national numbers, leaving the state-level relativities as they were at the end of last year. This is because I have hitherto had only the data provided by Essential Research to work with for the current year, and this was a shallow pool for the smaller states, where there was rather too much noise mixed together with the signal. Now that it’s all in the mix, the national seat projection is unchanged, but this comes from Coalition gains in Victoria and Western Australia (two seats apiece) cancelling out losses in New South Wales and Queensland (also two apiece).
Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor
The Essential Research poll records a one-point move back to the Coalition, reducing Labor’s lead to 52-48. The Guardian’s report notes this may have been assisted by static from the New South Wales state election, since it records an increase in the Coalition primary vote in the state from 39% to 41%. The national primary votes were Coalition 39% (up two), Labor 36% (down two), the Greens 10% (up two) and One Nation 7% (steady).
Other findings related directly or indirectly to the Christchurch attacks, including approval ratings for a range of international leaders which had Jacinda Ardern on 71% favourable, compared with 41% for Scott Morrison, 36% for Angela Markel, 31% for Teresa May and 19% for Donald Trump. High uncommitted responses were recorded for Merkel and May, at 42% and 38% respectively. Sixty-nine per cent of respondents said social media platforms should be required to prevent the broadcast of violent material; 49% believed media outlets that have provided platforms for extremist and racist views bore some responsibility for the Christchurch attacks; 42% believed major party politicians in Australia had deiberately stirred up anti-Islamic sentiment; 40% believed Christchurch was an isolated act rather than being connected to broarder debates; 37% reported regularly hearing racist or Islamaphobic statements.
Questions on the federal budget produced typical responses with respect to budget spending priorities, with health, education and pensions most favoured, although it’s perhaps telling that affordable housing came fourth out of a list of 14. Fifty-eight per cent expected the budget would be good for the well off and 50% believed it would benefit business, but only 19% expected to benefit personally, and 34% thought it would be bad or very bad. Other than that, “ a majority of voters want more spending in health, education and aged pensions”.
Important Docco coming to NITV:
https://www.sbs.com.au/nitv/feature/once-were-waterways-cultural-dispersal-environmental-vandalism-lower-murray-darling-basin?cx_cid=edm%3Anitv%3A190328
Unfortunately a small percentage of the population will believe the moon landings were faked, the world is flat, Trump was made president by God, immunisation gives you cancer, there is a worldwide conspiracy to {insert conspiracy} and so on.
These are the people attracted to One Nation and if ON no longer existed, they would be attracted to another group of loonies. Rational thought and objective analysis are not part of their thought processes.
Citizen @7:36
“These are the people attracted to One Nation and if ON no longer existed, they would be attracted to another group of loonies. Rational thought and objective analysis are not part of their thought processes.”
Or they’d return to the “Liberal” or National party, as they mostly did after John Howard “addressed their concerns”, which is what Morrison wants to do now.
He is not happy 😆
.
Hitler finds out the Mueller Investigation is Over
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=81&v=7cVsmuxOj28
Ven @ #1332 Thursday, March 28th, 2019 – 4:22 pm
Ven, you will still have to pay Telstra for your landline connection, since they own the wires. If you really need a landline, you can pay Telstra for a Budget HomeLine at $22.50 per month as the carrier for your ADSL, and use a VOIP (voice over internet protocol) provider like MyNetfone, which will give you the equivalent to a landline service over ADSL, but with unlimited local and national landline calls for another $10 per month, or including unlimited mobile calls for $20 per month. Nearly all ISP’s do VOIP, but pricing is variable, and many limit number or duration of calls.
poroti
They are going to have to re do the parody. Turns out the investigation isnt over and grand jury still convening on a case that they attempted to unseal today.
Socrates says:
Thursday, March 28, 2019 at 6:54 pm
Anning used taxpayer funded flights to attend a bankruptcy hearing. How many people facing insolvency has Pauline put into parliament now?
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/national/anning-uses-public-funds-for-private-meeting-in-adelaide-20190326-p517sg.html
And can someone please explain why he has not been made to pay back this private expense?
****************************
Can someone explain why there are not prosecutions like there are for Centerlink recipients?
Poroti
And I noticed that Glen Greenwald was on fox news confirming he was right all along that the Mueller investigation was a witchhunt.
Funny that, he hasn’t seen the report and nor has anyone else.
Of course taking the summary of Barr who in a previous life pardoned all those in the Iran contra affair is one person he should trust. You gotta laugh at the chutzpah
citizen @ #1400 Thursday, March 28th, 2019 – 6:36 pm
Whom you describe are better off fragmented, not organised.
Well, the drunk excuse doesn’t account for much of that expose.
Well, the second episode was more shocking than the first. Interestingly, it showed that Pauline Hanson can speak quite clearly and construct sensible sentences when she wants to.
It has not changed my view; One Nation is about extracting as much coin as possible from the political process; they do this with shock and horror. Con men and a women.
They had a crack at conning the NRA and failed.
Pegasus says:
Thursday, March 28, 2019 at 1:56 pm
I am one, yet according to EGW, I am the Greens.
RD himself has said countless times he is not a Greens but that doesn’t stop his detractors claiming over and over he is because they have an anti-Greens agenda of their own to push.
The bot account might be a G. Or they might not. But 100% for sure, they are Libling.
So Pauline Hanson wants to change the voting laws in Australia does she? It wouldn’t be from Compulsory Voting to Voluntary Voting by any chance, would it? Of course she does. That way she can gin up the PHONy vote with her patented schtick and hope all the ‘Socialists’, ‘Lefties’ and young people stay at home at election time and her sheep follow their shepherdess.
So I have just decided to put every Left of Centre and Progressive party in the Senate ahead of any party that might do deals with One Nation and Pauline Hanson.
She and her cancerous party will achieve their dream goal of the Balance of Power in the Senate, over my dead body!
There are reports around all the time saying how voters don’t trust political parties, politicians or the political institutions.
This comes as no surprise considering some of participants in politics spend MOST OF THEIR TIME deriding everyone else who ventures into politics. The same/same games played by the pop-voices are a part of this. The constant attempts at wedge-politics are part of this. The basically endless contumely that is used to get attention is a part of this.
The players make their crusts by denouncing others. They are exponents of mistrust. Given the trolling that has superseded politics, it’s surprising that voters still want to exercise their democratic rights at all. Trolling and troping are wearing away at the system.
Trolling and troping are wearing away at the system.
Because it’s the only card they have to play. They don’t know how to make the Art of the Possible, ie politics, possible.
“Give her a break. She stumbled over National Rifle and Murderers Association.”
Nah. She meant NAMBLA
I love the way Mumble has dealt with Greenwald’s pro-Russia derangement over the years, and his recent anti-Mueller derangement. So funny.
Well why am I NOT suprised.
I go for a lay down after Scotty claims he has locked in all LIBERALS executives across the country including QLD to put Hanson below LABOR on HTVs. I get up again and FIVE Libs have shown Scotty the middle finger and publicly said NA already. What a circus.
Scott Bucholz Member for Wright QLD Liberal
Luke Howarth Member for Petrie QLD Liberal
Ian McDonald Senator QLD Liberal
Tony Abbott Member for Warringah NSW Liberal
Craig Kelly Member for Hughes NSW Liberal
Fess
So mumble is amused by Greenwald too?!
Victoria @ #1421 Thursday, March 28th, 2019 – 6:58 pm
Very much so, and has been for some time.
EB @ #1418 Thursday, March 28th, 2019 – 9:53 pm
Can’t wait for their electorates to give them the finger.
Another Twitter storm by a Dotard underway…
C@tmomma @ #1423 Thursday, March 28th, 2019 – 10:03 pm
Yep. Good on ya Mr Abbott: he must be super confident of holding Warringah – He will never be leader again but he could always spot a wedgey
Wow, the Nationals and the Queensland LNPs are one thing, but NSW Liberals is something else. There is nowhere for Morrison to hide.
Fess
I had no idea.
Lol.
Greenwald has been off the reservation for quite sometime
But the response by him to the Mueller report takes the cake
“Dammit citizen, now all I want to do is go listen to “In The Aeroplane Over The Sea””
Second best album ever after OK Computer.
Whose that good looking chic in the bottom left corner of the Abbott photo?
Sheezarh standout fo’ sure.
Vic:
For eg,
Haha madam Sophie!
Fess
I reckon Glenn Greenwald is beyond salvage at this point.
Lol!
Dio ‘Hotel California’ will never be trumped. Although Bruce gave it a run.
SAINT GEORGE!!!! Just for you Shellbell.
Vic:
Mumble reserves similar snark for Julian Assange. Some of his replies to Assange have been hilarious.
My thoughts on tonights Rugby League game
The Donks and the Stinking Stains, who do you hate the most on the night. Donks more like Poorlean Hanson and the Stains have a lot of Clive Palmer about them.
Tonight my donkey vote went to the Clive Palmers.
To suggest there is a better album than Adam and the Ants’ Kings of the Wild Frontier is just silly.
Fess
Well considering Greenwald and Assange are birds of a feather, it stands to reason!
Rather amusing to see Craig Kelly MP turn on the person who intervened to save his preselection. This whole government brings to mind the fable of the scorpion and the frog. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Scorpion_and_the_Frog.
Labor’s candidate for O’Connor. At least she lives in the electorate.
https://www.esperanceexpress.com.au/story/5963435/payne-announces-candidacy-for-oconnor/
New verb: Brexiting.
Telling everyone at the party that you’re leaving, but actually staying.
yabba@8:04pm
I am not clear what you mean by ‘landline connection’ but my current internet service provider told me that if I take NBN package with them then for an extra $10 they include landline line rental and for another $10 I get free local, national and mobile calls. The NBN connection is free if I take 18 month plan.
what is the collective intelligence of the three including hanson? they dont seem bright up close
question two – how on earth was it filmed? why did they let the guy come along? but how did he do it?
It truly is an indictment of australian democracy and public life that these type of rogues and detritus thrive (to large extent due to liberals)
Jeffffro, at least we are not KKK like the Shire.
“Dammit citizen, now all I want to do is go listen to “In The Aeroplane Over The Sea””
Second best album ever after OK Computer.
The Elephant 6 collective was/is brilliant. The Apples in Stereo, The Sunshine Fix and Olivia Tremor Control are go-tos for me when I need to take my mind off stuff.
hungry jack @ #1443 Thursday, March 28th, 2019 – 8:48 pm
It’s clear they were duped. So obviously full of their own egos and self importance that they took the supposed GRA representative at face value and treated him to a no holds barred, all in it to win it insight to their true characters and true beliefs.
So, we learned nothing new from part 2 of How to sell a Massacre then?
They are nasty, self entitled idiots who hold people who vote for them (and everybody else) in utter contempt. Basically, outright stated that they would do anything that someone who gives them money wanted. FFS they have offered to use their hoped for grip on any Australian Govts testicles (Govt has a gender??) to change the voting system?? Seriously?? All candid and in their own words.
So, nothing new learned, just confirmation of what utter grubs they are.
Will ON run candidates in Warringah and Hughes? That would test Morrison’s authority in Sydney in a fairly conspicuous way. They may do it simply for the confrontational value. They might figure it could do them no harm in regional NSW and QLD to wedge the Liberals.
In any case, they will surely run in the QLD seats. The Liberals will have to decide whether they prefer to lose by aligning with ON or by resisting ON. Either way, they will lose.
No wonder One Nation can find disillusioned voter support when latest ATO income figures show farm workers on $19800 pa average and farmers $22400.
Rural population continues to fall, unemployment is high, Govt spending cannot be justified and future is bleak. Combine these with weather events that go on for years like the drought. One Nation promises give some hope. Why do these people get stirred up about Muslim immigrants when they create a bigger market for their produce? Why do they worry about foreign investment that buys their unviable properties?
Better to sell up and move to the coast and go fishing at Byron, surfing at Margaret River or just sit under a coconut tree at Port Douglas. Being unemployed 50 kms outside some tin pot town in the middle of nowhere doesn’t quite match up.