New South Wales election: the morning after

A quick and dirty review to an election result that proved surprisingly similar to the one in 2015.

I lack the energy to offer much in the way of a post-mortem at this late hour, except to say this was a remarkably status quo result. The Coalition dropped around 3% on the statewide primary vote, and Labor and the Greens about 1% apiece, so presumably the Coalition landed somewhere between 53% and 54% on the two-party vote. This is a couple of points better than the polls suggested, making this the first election result in a very long time that surprised on the up side for the Coalition (UPDATE: Thanks to NathanA in comments for jogging my memory about Tasmania last year). To a certain extent, that might be explained in terms of the Newspoll, with its Tuesday to Thursday field work period, only picking up part of a final week shift away from Labor – although it doesn’t explain an exit poll that was in line with the two-party result.

The Coalition went into the election needing to restrict its losses to six to retain its majority, and it is only clear that they have lost three. Two of these losses were to Shooters Fishers and Farmers, who had a rather spectacular night in picking up all three of their target seats, with Barwon and Murray joining their existing seat of Orange (I was suggesting the Nationals were more likely to retain Barwon quite late in my election night commentary, but they actually have a very handy lead there). Labor’s only clear gain is Coogee, which they now look to have in the bag, although by a lower than expected margin. It looks like they will fall short in East Hills and Penrith, but I will keep an eye on those all the same. Independent Mathew Dickerson has come close against the Nationals in Dubbo, but he is slightly behind and independents tend to lose ground in late counting.

The one seat on which I have crunched numbers is Lismore, which is likely but not certain to be lost by the Nationals. The question is whether it will be lost to Labor, who lead the notional two-party candidate, or the Greens, who had an unexpectedly good night despite the drop in their statewide vote, retaining their three existing seats of Balmain, Newtown and Ballina, and being well in the hunt in Lismore to boot. The two-party count has Labor with a lead of 1840, which looks too much for the Nationals to reel in – they should gain about 500 when pre-polls that have thus far been counted only on the primary vote are added, and the 2015 results suggest they will gain a further couple of hundred when absents and postals are added. However, Labor candidate Janelle Saffin holds a lead of just 24.85% to 23.90% over the Greens, and the race to stay ahead at the last exclusion could go either way. If the Greens win, they will certainly get enough preferences from Labor to defeat the Nationals UPDATE: Didn’t have my thinking cap on there – they may very well fail to get enough Labor preferences to do so.

The basic election night count for the Legislative Council accounts for 48.4% of enrolled voters, and only provides specific results for above-the-line votes for seven parties, when an “others” total that lumps together above-the-line votes for all other parties, and below-the-line voters for all and sundry. The only votes identified as informal at this point are those ballot papers that were left entirely blank – less obviously informal votes are presently in the “others” pile. Disregarding that complication, the current numbers show a clear seven quotas for the Coalition, six for Labor, two for the Greens, one apiece for One Nation and Shooters, leaving four to be accounted for.

The Coalition has enough of a surplus to be in the hunt for one of those; Labor probably doesn’t; One Nation look in the hunt for a second seat; the Christian Democrats and Animal Justice are both possibilities. The wild card is that three quotas under “others”, which would maybe a third of a quota’s worth of below-the-line votes for the seven main parties. My very late night feeling is that the Liberal Democrats (i.e. David Leyonhjelm), Australian Conservatives and Keep Sydney Open might all be in contention.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

687 comments on “New South Wales election: the morning after”

  1. Fozzie
    I have tried to keep the list to instances where extreme good luck has intervened to the considerable personal benefit of a Liberal or National. I have added some bad luck examples for good measure.

  2. “The point raised about Medicare was specifically about replacing the processing systems. So a bid for $ really. That could include outsourcing of the processing, but not Medicare itself.”

    The problem for the coalition was that privatizing the payments system, the core of it, was such an obvious step towards towards privatizing Medicare.

    “Mediscare” was bullshit from the Libs to cover up their program and thier lies about this. They only got away with those lies because they had the full backing of lazy or complicit journo’s at the time and all in the fast moving heat of an election campaign.

    Now, its become an entrenched meme for the Libs though, because its been repeated so often and n0-one in the media wants to admit to their complicity. The extreme partisans like GP will always run with whatever lies the Libs / IPA tell them too. They may even believe it. 🙂 But, on the evidence and history you can still identify them as Liberal lies. Just look to the Liberal record.

  3. @imacca
    https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/03/24/new-south-wales-election-morning/comment-page-9/#comment-3109656

    “The extreme partisans like GP will always run with whatever lies the Libs / IPA tell them too. ”

    I love how all of you say that unironically given that you all perenially bleat for dozens of pages the same old ALP talking points that haven’t changed for 40 years.

    “The problem for the coalition was that privatizing the payments system, the core of it, was such an obvious step towards towards privatizing Medicare.”

    What a nonsense. The payments system as it currently stands is so antiquated that it requires so much double handling and still features cheques that you have to personally send to the doctor. I mean, seriously. These sorts of inefficiencies are why the health budget is out of control.

  4. The Coalition MPs are already privatised.

    They represent the crony capitalists that fund them, including the recycled public moneys from the private interests they have sold public services to.

    It’s an cycle of greed and destruction of the public good.

  5. The payments system as it currently stands is so antiquated that it requires so much double handling and still features cheques that you have to personally send to the doctor.

    I reckon most people would get their Medicare rebate back the same way I do: at the time of paying for your doctor appointment. Simply insert your bank card again, type in your PIN and voila! Medicare rebate refunded.

  6. From Kevin Bonham

    5:00 iVotes have been added. They broke 556-406-417 (Nationals-Labor-Green) compared with 1066-610-682, so actually that’s a weaker break for the Nationals compared to 2015 and doesn’t help their projected position. Saffin’s 2PP has come down to 52.96% but this includes the large Lismore prepoll where Saffin got a 2.5% 2PP swing. There is no sign of trouble for Labor on the 2PP front and it is looking more or less certain they will win if they make the final two – meaning the Nationals’ main hope is they don’t. On that front too, Labor is now further ahead (1.39 points) though this is likely to come down on absents and enrolment votes.

    Plus a comprehensive summary of Legislative Council NSW
    https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/

  7. Generic Person says:
    Sunday, March 24, 2019 at 5:15 pm
    Hilarious, swamprat.

    Kevin Rudd’s wife was the biggest beneficiary of outsourced employment services. Get real.

    _________________________________

    Was she the biggest? And was it her, or her company?

    Seriously, though, it is really extraordinary that someone who has as its avatar the symbol of the most sexist, racist morally corrupt and financially corrupt party of any democracy in the world today should come on here complaining about left wing hypocrisy.

    PS, I’m old enough to remember how Fraser promised to improve Medibank and his method was to privatise it. A lot of other Australians remember that too. And he never moved to my good books.

  8. Seriously, though, it is really extraordinary that someone who has as its avatar the symbol of the most sexist, racist morally corrupt and financially corrupt party of any democracy in the world today should come on here complaining about left wing hypocrisy.

    Well, to be fair the Republican party wasn’t as sexist, racist or as corrupt as they are now when GP first got his gravatar.

  9. Generic Person @ #413 Sunday, March 24th, 2019 – 5:15 pm

    Hilarious, swamprat.

    Kevin Rudd’s wife was the biggest beneficiary of outsourced employment services. Get real.

    So the spivs and shonks party put up employment services for tender, and Labor people can’t be included? Or perhaps take up the offer and run the business ethically, even though that’s not a requirement. 😡

  10. The ALP introduced the White Australia Policy and its two most recent leaders in NSW have both expressed “yellow peril” concerns. Furthermore, the last ALP government in NSW was the most corrupt in Australian history, with a few of the cabinet having gone to gaol. We then have Luke Foley putting his hands down the pants of journalists.

    I know Poll Bludger is wall to wall hard Labor left, but even for you guys the cognitive dissonance is at extreme levels.

  11. Ahhhh, with GP back to spread the received wisdom it be ja lik daH uld days wot. 🙂

    Good to see the party functionaries out and about campaigning.

  12. In the event there is a Newspoll tonight, here are the guesses. I will keep watch for further guesses or changed guesses.

    PB-Guess: Newspoll 2019-03-24

    PB median: ALP 54.0 to 46.0 LNP
    PB mode: ALP 54.0 to 46.0 LNP
    PB mean: ALP 53.9 to 46.1 LNP
    No. Of PB Respondents: 58

    ALP / LNP
    54 / 46 (?)andy Murray
    53 / 47 a r *until the election
    54 / 46 Al Pal
    55 / 45 Alpha Zero
    54 / 46 BK
    53 / 47 booleanbach
    54 / 46 briefly
    53 / 47 Burgey
    53 / 47 chinda63
    53 / 47 Clem Attlee
    55 / 45 d-money
    75 / 25 Dan Gulberry
    52 / 48 Davidwh *doubtful
    55 / 45 Dog’s Breakfast
    52 / 48 Douglas and Milko
    54 / 46 EB *permanent
    54 / 46 Fozzie Logic *permanent
    53 / 47 Frednk *permanent
    56 / 44 Gecko
    55 / 45 Granny Anny
    54 / 46 Goll
    54 / 46 Harry “Snapper” Organs
    53 / 47 imacca
    57 / 43 KayJay – all next polls
    53 / 47 Late Riser
    53 / 47 Lynchpin
    52 / 48 Marcos De Feilittt
    55 / 45 martini henry
    53 / 47 Matt31
    53 / 47 max
    52 / 48 MM
    54 / 46 Mr Ed
    53 / 47 Mundo
    54 / 46 pica
    52 / 48 Player One
    54 / 46 poroti
    52 / 48 Puffytmd
    53 / 47 Quasar *perpetuity
    54 / 46 Red13
    55 / 45 rhwombat *chastened
    no Newspoll Scott
    53 / 47 SilentMajority
    56 / 44 Simon² Katich® *eternal
    52 / 48 Smokey
    50 / 50 Sprocket_
    54 / 46 Socrates
    54 / 46 Sohar *Newspoll March 31
    53 / 47 sonar *permanent
    53 / 47 steve davis
    52 / 48 Steve777
    54 / 46 Terminator
    53 / 47 Tricot
    54 / 46 Upnorth
    53 / 47 Victoria
    54 / 46 Wayne
    54 / 46 Whisper
    54 / 46 Yabba
    51 / 49 Zoidlord

  13. Boerwar @ #419 Sunday, March 24th, 2019 – 2:47 pm

    beguiledagain
    It was a racist comment. He wanted to be premier of NSW. Join the dots.

    All he had to do was make the comparison between first home owners (his daughter), and investors or high income earners (instead of Asians with PhDs). That says the exact same message he was trying to convey without singling any specific cultural group.

  14. https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-47678275

    The woman who started the record-breaking anti-Brexit petition says she is “shaking like a leaf” after receiving three death threats by phone.

    Margaret Georgiadou, 77, began the Revoke Article 50 petition, which had topped four million signatures by Saturday morning.

    She said she was “totally amazed” it had become the most popular petition submitted to the Parliament website.

    But Mrs Georgiadou said the “horrible” phone calls left her scared and angry. The retired lecturer says she has also received abuse via her Facebook account.

    She said: “I feel terrible, I feel angry with myself because I thought I was tougher than that. But I was scared.”

  15. ‘Generic Person says:
    Sunday, March 24, 2019 at 5:50 pm

    The ALP introduced the White Australia Policy and its two most recent leaders in NSW have both expressed “yellow peril” concerns. Furthermore, the last ALP government in NSW was the most corrupt in Australian history, with a few of the cabinet having gone to gaol. We then have Luke Foley putting his hands down the pants of journalists.

    I know Poll Bludger is wall to wall hard Labor left, but even for you guys the cognitive dissonance is at extreme levels.’

    Our chief law officer, Porter, was last month telling everyone in Australia that the Manus and Nauru inmates were terrorists, murderers, pedophiles and rapists.
    When taxed by Cassidy, Porter, who has apparently failed to assimilate such basic western civilization notions as ‘habeas corpus’ and ‘innocent until found guilty’ had to admit that not a single one had been convicted. Not one.
    Morrison should have sacked Porter for this blatant bit of Islamophobic dog whistling.
    Of course Porter was His Master’s Voice in this matter.
    Morrison put his Plan to the Shadow Cabinet but they were disgusted with his muslims-as-a-political-tool idea.
    Morrison is now giving it out that he wanted all along to help muslims.
    At interview with Ali, that weasel Morrison was also unable to give a number.
    Gutless bastards like Porter and Morrison have been dog whistling for decades, dividing Australian society and promoting racism.
    Do*Not*Buy*A*Used*Car off Morrison.

  16. GP

    We then have Luke Foley putting his hands down the pants of journalists.

    _________________________________

    Journalists? Do you know that he did it more than once and to more than one person? Or does hyperbolic lying come easy to the right wing? Conservatives now only regard morals and ethics as tools to beat their opposition with. They attach no value to them when living their own lives.

  17. He was concerned about white flight from his electorate. He wasn’t talking about high income earners.

    From what I’ve seen of the video footage he was talking about people of means using their purchasing power to buy into suburbs, pushing out first home buyers. I don’t think it was a deliberate attempt to scare the ‘white flight’ mob as you’ve deemed it.

  18. TPOF
    I note how your only criticism of my post was the fact that I pluralised the word “journalist”.
    I note that you have nothing to say about the most corrupt government in Australian history (the former NSW ALP government), nothing to say at all.

  19. GP

    The comments are clearly racist and indefensible.
    __________________________________

    What do you think of the fact that your mob refuse to criticise PHON more than with a feather and regard the Greens as worst than that bunch of screaming racists?

    What do you think of the fact that your Gladys was quite happy to do deals with the Liberal Democrats who want all semi-automatic weapons made far more generally available than the SFF party?

    What do you think of the fact that the Liberal Party machine was so outraged and appalled by Daley’s comments that they waited until the last week of the campaign to release them? If they really cared about the sentiments rather than the politics they would have released it right away, but they are hypocritical shits with more racism in their little fingers than Daley has in his whole body (and that is not being kind to Daley).

  20. Re GP @5:50 PM.
    – It’s the right wing parties – “Liberal” and National – that do race baiting today.
    – Most corrupt in Australian history? That’s a tall order. In any case if you were around in NSW in the 60s and 70s or Qld in the 70s and 80s you would have voted for the corrupt Coalition Governments in those States. And I am sure if we get to lift a few rocks in the Abbott/Turnbull/Morrison Government, some very interesting creatures will scuttle about in the light.
    – Luke Foley’s gone. Labor don’t tolerate his like
    – All PB hard Labor hard left? That would annoy the lots of Greens here, plus some of our more conservative and Centrist posters.

  21. Generic Person says:
    Sunday, March 24, 2019 at 6:03 pm
    TPOF
    I note how your only criticism of my post was the fact that I pluralised the word “journalist”.

    ____________________________________

    I noticed you didn’t respond to my point.

    Typical lying, dishonest misdirection by the right wing.

  22. And put up your hands all of those who swallowed the propaganda hook, line and sinker. Did any of you actually read a full transcript of the whole Daly utterance?

    I have yet to see any transcript. Let me have it if you can find it.

    beguiledagain,
    sustainable future got a hold of one and, yes, a very different picture is painted when you read it.

    However, what confessions says is also true, words are bullets and Daley shouldn’t have loaded the gun for Murdoch’s droogs.

  23. William – have you or anyone looked at how significant the “I want to vote for the winner” effect (if it exists) is for undecideds? In both NSW and Vic we’ve had election results much stronger than indicated by the polls in favour of the incumbent that was expected to win. OR is it just a “better the devil you know” factor? How do you tend to allocate “undecideds” because I think they should be weighted in favour of the incumbent if the challenger lacks charisma (yes, I’m looking at you Mr Shorten).

    I now expect NSW to not yield many seats to labor at the fed election – and so long as the seats are lost elsewhere (they will be) the only NSW seat I care about is Warringah – abbott losing his seat is going to make this “the sweetest victory of all”. Pity is he’ll get Alan Jones’radio spot and a sky show after. perhaps he’ll end up as a senator for the Australian Conservatives. given latham, nothing is impossible.

  24. Lol. GP casually overlooks the Beetrooter and appears to care not a whit for Mrs Natalie Joyce or his 4 daughter’s feelings.

  25. Shit happens. But I couldn’t help believing either what a member of the gay community told me in all honesty years ago before Gladys was Premier.

    C@t, please learn from this. Since what you were saying was not true, it was personal scuttlebutt of the kind we should all be above. If it had been true, you would have been outing someone, which is not OK at all. If someone’s sexuality is not public knowledge, do not discuss it publicly. Pretty simple. I don’t think you meant this maliciously, but outing someone is always an enormous violation.

    (Some would say there is an exception when the person in question has been openly and enthusiastically pushing a hard-line anti-LGBT agenda. That was not the case here.)

  26. Generic Person

    “the most corrupt in Australia history”. You need to to read more.

    “We then have Luke Foley putting his hands down the pants of journalists” – down the pants of “a” journalist. One. Get it right.

    About this situation, I find it extremely interesting that the journo in question “froze” when they were in a public space.

    Why would you freeze? Why wouldn’t you say, loud and clear: ‘WTF do you think you’re doing?’ Get your fucking hand out of my pants!

    Seriously.

    And who wears an undone-at-the-back-to-your-arse dress to a function like this, anyway?

    I’m not saying she was asking for it, I’m asking is it out of the realms of possibility that Foley sidled up to her to get a favourable report, slid his arm round her, in a public space, and finds himself with his hand inside her dress.

    Just askin’.

  27. TPOF
    The notion that One Nation ought to be placed last is contestible.
    They aren’t seeking to destroy the economy and living standards with imbecilic and extreme environmental and taxation policies. One Nation also isn’t anti-semitic, or pro-Hamas. On that count, the Greens therefore deserve to be last. Politics is sometimes about the least-worst option. In NSW, it’s less of an issue because you can let your vote exhaust and not bother assigning preferences to imbeciles.

  28. briefly @ #429 Sunday, March 24th, 2019 – 5:58 pm

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-47678275

    The woman who started the record-breaking anti-Brexit petition says she is “shaking like a leaf” after receiving three death threats by phone.

    Margaret Georgiadou, 77, began the Revoke Article 50 petition, which had topped four million signatures by Saturday morning.

    She said she was “totally amazed” it had become the most popular petition submitted to the Parliament website.

    But Mrs Georgiadou said the “horrible” phone calls left her scared and angry. The retired lecturer says she has also received abuse via her Facebook account.

    She said: “I feel terrible, I feel angry with myself because I thought I was tougher than that. But I was scared.”

    Starting a dodgy petition is no excuse for sending her death threats.

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