New South Wales election: the morning after

A quick and dirty review to an election result that proved surprisingly similar to the one in 2015.

I lack the energy to offer much in the way of a post-mortem at this late hour, except to say this was a remarkably status quo result. The Coalition dropped around 3% on the statewide primary vote, and Labor and the Greens about 1% apiece, so presumably the Coalition landed somewhere between 53% and 54% on the two-party vote. This is a couple of points better than the polls suggested, making this the first election result in a very long time that surprised on the up side for the Coalition (UPDATE: Thanks to NathanA in comments for jogging my memory about Tasmania last year). To a certain extent, that might be explained in terms of the Newspoll, with its Tuesday to Thursday field work period, only picking up part of a final week shift away from Labor – although it doesn’t explain an exit poll that was in line with the two-party result.

The Coalition went into the election needing to restrict its losses to six to retain its majority, and it is only clear that they have lost three. Two of these losses were to Shooters Fishers and Farmers, who had a rather spectacular night in picking up all three of their target seats, with Barwon and Murray joining their existing seat of Orange (I was suggesting the Nationals were more likely to retain Barwon quite late in my election night commentary, but they actually have a very handy lead there). Labor’s only clear gain is Coogee, which they now look to have in the bag, although by a lower than expected margin. It looks like they will fall short in East Hills and Penrith, but I will keep an eye on those all the same. Independent Mathew Dickerson has come close against the Nationals in Dubbo, but he is slightly behind and independents tend to lose ground in late counting.

The one seat on which I have crunched numbers is Lismore, which is likely but not certain to be lost by the Nationals. The question is whether it will be lost to Labor, who lead the notional two-party candidate, or the Greens, who had an unexpectedly good night despite the drop in their statewide vote, retaining their three existing seats of Balmain, Newtown and Ballina, and being well in the hunt in Lismore to boot. The two-party count has Labor with a lead of 1840, which looks too much for the Nationals to reel in – they should gain about 500 when pre-polls that have thus far been counted only on the primary vote are added, and the 2015 results suggest they will gain a further couple of hundred when absents and postals are added. However, Labor candidate Janelle Saffin holds a lead of just 24.85% to 23.90% over the Greens, and the race to stay ahead at the last exclusion could go either way. If the Greens win, they will certainly get enough preferences from Labor to defeat the Nationals UPDATE: Didn’t have my thinking cap on there – they may very well fail to get enough Labor preferences to do so.

The basic election night count for the Legislative Council accounts for 48.4% of enrolled voters, and only provides specific results for above-the-line votes for seven parties, when an “others” total that lumps together above-the-line votes for all other parties, and below-the-line voters for all and sundry. The only votes identified as informal at this point are those ballot papers that were left entirely blank – less obviously informal votes are presently in the “others” pile. Disregarding that complication, the current numbers show a clear seven quotas for the Coalition, six for Labor, two for the Greens, one apiece for One Nation and Shooters, leaving four to be accounted for.

The Coalition has enough of a surplus to be in the hunt for one of those; Labor probably doesn’t; One Nation look in the hunt for a second seat; the Christian Democrats and Animal Justice are both possibilities. The wild card is that three quotas under “others”, which would maybe a third of a quota’s worth of below-the-line votes for the seven main parties. My very late night feeling is that the Liberal Democrats (i.e. David Leyonhjelm), Australian Conservatives and Keep Sydney Open might all be in contention.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

687 comments on “New South Wales election: the morning after”

  1. Confessions says:
    Sunday, March 24, 2019 at 5:37 pm
    Seriously, though, it is really extraordinary that someone who has as its avatar the symbol of the most sexist, racist morally corrupt and financially corrupt party of any democracy in the world today should come on here complaining about left wing hypocrisy.

    —————————
    Well, to be fair the Republican party wasn’t as sexist, racist or as corrupt as they are now when GP first got his gravatar.

    _________________________________________

    GP could change it. GP won’t because he wholly supports the pussy-grabbing, lying, corrupt President of his party.

  2. Generic Person
    The ALP introduced the White Australia Policy

    Umm no it didn’t. The WAP was drafted by Alfred Deakin, and implemented by Edmund Barton, both of whom were conservative Protectionists. That’s not to say that Labor didn’t support the WAP for a long time, but so did everyone for the first half of the twentieth century.

    https://www.nma.gov.au/defining-moments/resources/white-australia-policy

    Now I know most right-wingers have a tangential relationship with facts, but why on earth would you go on a left-leaning blog, claim something so easily refuted, and thus advertise your gaping ignorance?

  3. Rex

    Starting a dodgy poll is no excuse for sending her death threats.
    _____________________________________-

    It was a petition, not a poll.

    I can’t think of any circumstances in which there is an excuse to send death threats to someone. Perhaps you could tell us what would be an excuse for sending death threats to someone else.

    Otherwise it seems to me your moral tut-tutting is actually nothing more than an excuse to have a slap at Ms Georgiadou, rather than actually caring about death threats to someone exercising their democratic rights.

  4. Sean Kelly, Sean Kelly is a columnist for The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald and a former adviser to Labor prime ministers Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard

    Regardless of why Labor lost, Daley’s video was racist – and it cost:

    https://www.smh.com.au/nsw-election-2019/regardless-of-why-labor-lost-daley-s-video-was-racist-and-it-cost-20190324-p5170f.html

    In an era when mistakes are punished quickly and harshly, seeking to minimise risk by not really doing much during campaigns is understandable. But the truth of the NSW election is that voters were offered no real reason to vote for anyone. And, ultimately, they didn’t really vote for anyone – the primary votes for the major parties were low. As they were in 2016.

    If I were Scott Morrison or Bill Shorten, I’d be thinking long and hard about that.

  5. We’ll get more Generic People, former posters and new, joining us in the leadup to the election, as has been the case for elections past. All good fun.

  6. ‘Generic Person says:
    Sunday, March 24, 2019 at 6:09 pm

    TPOF
    The notion that One Nation ought to be placed last is contestible.’

    …only if you are happy with promoting racists and racism.

  7. Umm no it didn’t. The WAP was drafted by Alfred Deakin, and implemented by Edmund Barton, both of whom were conservative Protectionists. That’s not to say that Labor didn’t support the WAP for a long time, but so did everyone for the first half of the twentieth century.

    Alfred Deakin is rolling over in his grave right now at the very idea that he was “conservative”. He was well known as a liberal Protectionist, which is why most of the conservative Protectionists defected to the Free Traders when he became leader.

    But yes, the WAP was hardly Labour-only, although Labour was particularly passionate about it when it was introduced and called for it to be strengthened, and the few MPs/senators who said vaguely non-racist things were all Free Traders.

  8. sprocket:

    Oh god ScoMo’s gone Beto!

    I’ve noticed that Tone has an Instagram account which he’s starting to use more and more lately, presumably because that is Steggall’s preferred method of social media communication.

  9. GP

    They aren’t seeking to destroy the economy and living standards with imbecilic and extreme environmental and taxation policies.

    ______________________________

    So you are clearly happy with a party that routinely demonises non-white minorities to the extent that they gave license to a fellow-traveller to murder 50 peaceful people, including young children, doing no harm to anybody at all.

    That’s what I hate about the right now. They used to have some humanity; now all they care about is fucking money – and only theirs.

  10. Frickeg
    Alfred Deakin is rolling over in his grave right now at the very idea that he was “conservative”. He was well known as a liberal Protectionist, which is why most of the conservative Protectionists defected to the Free Traders when he became leader.

    Fair cop.

  11. TPOF
    Your side of politics will suffer a lot of pain at the ballot box by seeking to link every person on the right with some deranged white supremacist terrorist. It was frankly an appalling sight to witness every left wing journalist and participant on social media do everything possible to politicise the brutal death of 50 people whilst their bodies were still warm! Disgraceful.

  12. ON advocate measures that would make religious and racial persecution an aim of state policies. Some parts of the LNP are cool with that.

  13. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/mar/24/shooters-say-support-for-nsw-government-conditional-on-murray-darling-action

    SFFP priorities in NSW parliament:

    The Shooters, Fishers and Farmers party will not negotiate on any legislation with the newly elected New South Wales state government until the Coalition addresses its concerns around the Murray-Darling River, its leader said on Sunday.
    :::
    He said the party’s other priorities included a freeze on marine park sanctuaries, a “right to farm” bill and a review of the badly managed NSW firearms registry.

  14. C@t – I don’t have a full transcript. I read a media report the wider context of what he said – which included WTTE “It was a good thing they (Asian PhDs) are coming, but they are taking jobs and making housing more expensive”. It was stupid thing to say, and particularly stupid to nominate a race – but the point he was making was about cost of living and employment rather than dogwhistling.

    he fucked up and has paid the price.

    My issues are that the tape was kept for months for use during the election and that somehow the murdoch media and followers at 9 News and ABC can see racism in this worth howling all week over, but not in a PM who claims refugees who we have made ill are child rapists and murderers who will steal hospital beds. if a lib pollie had got caught saying the same thing, the murdoch media would be publishing stats showing trends in the number of asians and asians with PhDs in Sydney and saying “he just stated a fact”.

  15. It was frankly an appalling sight to witness every left wing journalist and participant on social media do everything possible to politicise the brutal death of 50 people whilst their bodies were still warm! Disgraceful.

    Frankly I’d be more concerned if the media and people on social media didn’t draw attention to or call out what evidence is suggesting is an extreme asshole who made the totally jacked decision to mow down innocent people at worship, all in the name of his bullshit politically-motivated agenda. In fact I wouldn’t be concerned if that happened, I’d be disgusted.

  16. SF do we know if it was the media that held onto the Daley recording or was it the Libs? If it was the Libs then that is just DirtyPolitics 101.

  17. TPOF
    Your side of politics will suffer a lot of pain at the ballot box by seeking to link every person on the right with some deranged white supremacist terrorist.

    ______________________________

    Only those who defend what he stood for (though rejecting his methods). People like you.

    As for this shit:

    “It was frankly an appalling sight to witness every left wing journalist and participant on social media do everything possible to politicise the brutal death of 50 people whilst their bodies were still warm! Disgraceful.”

    That is straight out of the gun lobby playbook. Let’s not talk about what loud dog-whistling and direct racism led to this. That massacre of individuals purely because of their religion did not occur in a vacuum. Attacking those who point out who created the environment for it to happen is lower than low. You are just helping the next massacre to take place.

  18. Decades of dog whistling to racists.
    Decades of getting into bed with Hanson.
    Voting for its alright to be white in the Senate.
    Decades of silence on white sumpremacists.
    Decades of silence in the face of shockjocks.
    Decades of silence on Sky After Dark.
    And now desperately running for cover.
    Morrison loves muslims.
    He really does.

  19. Generic Person

    Rubbish, the two knights ran far more corrupt governments: Sir Robin Askin and Sir Joh were definitely ran the two most corrupt governments in Australian history.

  20. It’s a bit of fun now having a GP contribute to PB.
    We have our local well-worn apologists from the LNP here, but a new/old contributor will get the dander up with some. The sad part is these stirrers rarely tend to last the distance or they just drop into cliches. The trick is to actually wait until these lively people actually say something vaguely related to fact, rather than read from the LNP talking sheet.
    Anyone who can actually tout some value in ON and suggest that this outfit is somehow sweeter than the Greens, cannot taken seriously. (Sc) roll on I say!

  21. C@tmomma
    says:
    Sunday, March 24, 2019 at 5:55 pm
    nath @ #395 Sunday, March 24th, 2019 – 4:45 pm
    re: Gladys. well I feel bad for believing shit based off what one person said.
    Shit happens. But I couldn’t help believing either what a member of the gay community told me in all honesty years ago before Gladys was Premier.
    ______________________________
    Yes but I should have known better. After all, it came from a source rich in fantasy. The same source that described Tony Burke as a ‘top barrister’ and who predicted the Greens would all but be eradicated from the NSW parliament after the 2019 election. 🙂

  22. swamprat
    The Morrison Government is giving them a run for the money.
    Half a billion to some mates on the Reef. No process. Here’s the paper bag full of money.
    A huge percentage going to dinners, lunches and the like.
    Well over a hundred instances of ignoring due process with appointments.
    Dozens of cases where the law is simply ignored when corruption is exposed.
    Billions in stolen Super. Simply ignored.
    Billions in wage theft. Simply ignored.
    Hiding corruption by mates in the finance industry.
    The list goes on and on and on.
    Australia plunging down world corruption indices.
    Corporate Australia completely untrammelled by ‘watchdogs’.
    No white collar criminals jailed.
    Staff and running costs in all regulatory agencies gutted – except where they are supposed to target muslims.
    Ministers who move straight into the private sector money generated by their ministerial decisions.

  23. GP timing is everything.

    Personally I have little sympathy for for political mud slinging from either side after what Bligh/Fraser did to Campbell Newman and his family. However that is politics.

  24. Yes, you can’t complain about the dropping 0f a racist video during a campaign..such a thing should never have existed.
    Daley has to go, or else this video will dog the ALP in the Federal campaign. It will be used everytime Labor brings up race or discrimination. Journalists will (apparently rightly according to the video) say they are all the same on race.

  25. TPOF @ #475 Sunday, March 24th, 2019 – 6:33 pm

    TPOF
    Your side of politics will suffer a lot of pain at the ballot box by seeking to link every person on the right with some deranged white supremacist terrorist.

    ______________________________

    Only those who defend what he stood for (though rejecting his methods). People like you.

    As for this shit:

    “It was frankly an appalling sight to witness every left wing journalist and participant on social media do everything possible to politicise the brutal death of 50 people whilst their bodies were still warm! Disgraceful.”

    That is straight out of the gun lobby playbook. Let’s not talk about what loud dog-whistling and direct racism led to this. That massacre of individuals purely because of their religion did not occur in a vacuum. Attacking those who point out who created the environment for it to happen is lower than low. You are just helping the next massacre to take place.

    The dog-whistling from Liberal and Labor I agree helps create a divisive environment which extremists occasionally take hold of in the most catastrophic of ways.

    We must remember that new borns aren’t born haters.

  26. Boerwar

    Yes, you may be right. I hope their behaviour is put before a Royal Commission. I was going to say most corrupt State Governments.

  27. Pegasus @ 6.36

    Much as it pains me to agree with you about anything, I agree that this post was absolutely wrong. The journalist in question behaved to the highest standard throughout the whole saga. Indeed she was the only one to hold her head high out of it all.

    People (not just women) react to these situations in a myriad of ways – all of which are totally valid. Nobody should ever be judged for reacting or responding in a way that differs from what someone else expects – ever.

  28. Confessions @ #484 Sunday, March 24th, 2019 – 6:40 pm

    Good lord, it sounds like Rod Bowers of the Gosford Anglican Parish is going to run for the Senate!

    He said he was going to months ago. And has wanted to ever since I have known him, since the 2014 Horror Budget and the March in March protests against it, but he was building his national profile first.

  29. In NSW the tory Coalition went to the 2011 election on a public platform of anti-corruption, while privately its MPs and candidates were corrupting the state’s party-donation laws and clutching paper bags stuffed with cash from illegal so called donations.

    one of their pet so called reporters Paul Sheenan was later *let go* by Fairfax for “unacceptable breaches of fundamental journalistic practice” couldn’t hold back –

    The links between property developers and Liberal factional operators are numerous. The number of people using the party to monetise political access is high.

    So, too, is the number of Liberal politicians who have engaged in dubious perks.

    This is the taint in the party’s culture the smell of which carried all the way to Gymea Bay and the voters of Miranda.

    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/voters-didnt-like-the-stench-so-got-rid-of-it-20131020-2vuv9.html#ixzz2iIdPwuQs

  30. swamprat says:
    Sunday, March 24, 2019 at 6:34 pm
    Generic Person

    Rubbish, the two knights ran far more corrupt governments: Sir Robin Askin and Sir Joh were definitely ran the two most corrupt governments in Australian history.
    __________________________________

    Gawd. I forgot about Askin. Talk about corruption reaching up into the highest echelons.

  31. Pegasus says:
    Sunday, March 24, 2019 at 6:45 pm
    TPOF

    “Much as it pains me to agree with you about anything..”
    Fuck off

    _________________________-

    Why?

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *