We may not get a new federal poll this week, with the fortnightly Newspoll and Essential Research having reported last week, and the monthly Ipsos doing so the week before. However, two further Liberal resignations (with widespread suggestions Craig Laundy will shortly follow in Reid) are keeping the preselection news treadmill rolling:
• Christopher Pyne’s departure announcements opens a vacancy in the eastern Adelaide seat of Sturt, which he has held since 1993, when he was 25. However, the loss of his personal vote may damage the Liberals’ chances of defending the seat’s 5.4% post-redistribution margin, with Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review reporting a “senior South Australian Liberal” saying the party was in “big trouble” in the seat. Luke Griffiths of The Australian cites “multiple Liberal sources” as saying the preselection is “almost certain” to go to James Stevens, the chief-of-staff to Premier Steven Marshall, who is aligned with Pyne’s moderate faction and has his personal support. However, Pyne’s own former chief-of-staff, Adam Howard, is “considered an outside chance”, and there “might be a push by branch members to preselect a female candidate”.
• The Gold Coast seat of Moncrieff will be vacated by the retirement of Steve Ciobo, who came to the seat in 2001 at the age of 27. The aforesaid report in The Australian identifies four potential nominees: Karly Abbott, a staffer to Ciobo and the reputed front-runner; John-Paul Langbroek, who holds the state seat of Surfers Paradise and served as Opposition Leader from 2009 to 2011; Tim Rawlings, former chief-of-staff to Tracy Davis, then a minister in Campbell Newman’s government; and Bibe Roadley, managing director of a training company.
Also:
• The West Australian reports five nominees for preselection in Curtin: Celia Hammond, until recently the vice-chancellor of Notre Dame University, whom media reports suggest is the front-runner; Erin Watson-Lynn, director of Asialink Diplomacy at the University of Melbourne, who is said to have backing from Julie Bishop; Anna Dartnell, an executive for resources company Aurizon; Karen Caddy, Stirling councillor and management consultant for BusinX Consulting; and the sole male candidate, Andres Timmermanis, Cambridge councillor and manager for IT firm Scantek Solutions, who has been mentioned in relation to a number of western suburbs preselections over the years.
• The Saturday Paper reports a uComms poll conducted for UnionsACT on January 23 suggested ACT Liberal Senator Zed Seselja was in danger of losing his seat to an independent or the Greens. The polling is said to show Liberal support at 22.4%, down from 33.2% at the 2016 election and 24.2% in a poll conducted in October; Labor on 33.1%, down from 37.9% in 2016 and 39.3% in the October; the Greens on 19.9%, up from 16.1% in 2016 and 17.0% in October; and independent/other on 17.7%, up from 12.7% in 2016 and 13.9% in October. This leaves 6.9% undecided in the January poll, and 5.6% in the October poll. Seselja is also credited with an approval rating of just 29%, compared with 59% disapproval. Anthony Pesec, “local businessman, former investment banker and renewable energy developer”, announced last week he would run as an independent. Were Seselja to lose, it would be the first time in either of the two territories that the two Senate seats did not split between the two major parties.
poroti
“A guy from The Men of the Trees pointed out the big fly in the ointment re tree planting ‘fixing’ emissions or even making a meaningful contribution. The only places where it is sensible to plant large tracts of trees just happens to be in our prime agricultural/horticultural regions.”
Yes it the same with biofuels. If we converted ALL of our cropland to growing biofuel crops, we would supply about 1/3 of our fuel oil demand. And we would have no food. Absurd.
Lizzie
The solution for Labor is simple. Sack the board members and put in members of the MEAA
There are plenty of media people laid off recently that can be board members. Also some longer term people. Eg Mike Carlton
As long as people are qualified it does not have to be business people with an obvious bias to the right. That would balance Ita Buttrose as Chair.
Mundo
Austin goes on to say:
…Now, in contrast, after the Coalition has added an average of $54.4 billion over its last three years, not a peep from Australia’s spineless and mendacious mass media.
The conclusion seems inescapable. Economics reporters and their editors in the mainstream media are paid to conceal what is actually happening in the economy. This is to maintain the myth that the Coalition manages the economy better than Labor. And thereby maintain the tax regime so beneficial for the big corporations.
guytaur
I’m interested in who will be MD, assuming that Ita will have influence.
I know what you mean re. Labor taking on the government about debt, but unfortunately it’s a hopeless task from Opposition.
The media, so wrapped up in “The Politics” (i.e. how to fool the voters) won’t help.
It can only be done from government, sadly. But I hope it IS done.
It appears to me that a significant measure of the “good economic performance” of the government has been financed out of lazy debt, in plain sight, while tax avoiders, mates and rorters loot the Treasury.
I have a bad feeling that the economy is about to bust, and that Labor will be blamed unless they go on the front foot ASAP after the election.
I’m in Perth so haven’t seen Insiders yet, so I’m engaging in the dangerous practice of commenting on Taylor and the proposed underwriting of 1o coal projects.
Before getting overly worried about what may or may not be signed, it’s important to remember that there are no coal projects in Australia that are shovel ready, or anywhere near it. The only “plans” for coal-fired power stations exist only in the imaginations of the proponents and perhaps in a fancy computer generated promotional video.
My employer does a significant amount of business dealing with thermal generation, and we subscribe to a service which details every project of significance in Australia that is in the pipeline – projects that are nearing pre-feasibility stage and onwards. There are no coal-fired power plants or life extensions on that list.
Signing up to a new plant or life extension, as much as my prejudices against the Liberals want me to believe otherwise, is beyond the level of irresponsibility of even the looniest Liberal. There are quite simply no plans sufficiently advanced that a proponent could enter into a binding arrangement with the commonwealth.
Lizzie
It would be nice to have a managing director from Scandinavia where they still have Independent media and understanding of government funded bodies.
BB
On the ‘bust’ of the economy, all the signs are there and you’re right. It’s going to be tough for Labor (as ever).
“Angus intimates he will underwrite 10 coal powered power stations.”
I am not following Insiders but if this is what is proposed I am outraged. A huge expense, not debated in parliament, and not assessed by IA either. Labor should oppose this on many grounds. I would be very surprised if there was cross bench support for this either.
Also, as others have said, onerous contracts signed just before a likely change of government is economic vandalism. They seem to have decided if they cant run the joint, they will wreck the joint. Pathetic.
A thoughtful reflection on George Pell and related matters by Christos Tsiolkas .
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/mar/03/my-anger-with-george-pell-has-been-replaced-by-immense-sadness
@ poroti et al
I don’t accept that the premises that 1. all the tree planting that could be done wouldn’t do much towards issues caused by Climate Change and 2. the only areas that could reafforested are Australia’s prime farming land.
When one thinks of reafforestation, its easy to think of it as planting trees=equals forests. But there are huge areas that could be reafforested with not only trees,but shrubs,bushes and grasses. It doesnt have to be prime ag. land. Consider that Australia is the home of hundreds of species of acacia alone, and that mass plantings of this species not only would contribute to ameliorating Climate Change issues but as nitrogen fixers, return a degree of soil fertility to areas denuded by abuse. These plants alone survive and spread even in the toughest of conditions. And they set up those areas for reclamation by other species.
There are many places in both urban and regional areas where small scale, community reafforestation can be achieved. In particular, waterway rehabilitation, an area I’ve worked in for over 30 years. Successful rehabilitation creates cleaner, healthier waterways, fauna and floral habitat and pathways, cooler temperatures (in suburbs and in cities), recreational sites where people can start to realign their lives with nature ( albeit on a small scale,even if they’re just walking the dog or watching the kids in a playground) and undoubtedly, increases property values.
Sure, the scale of work required to make a significant start on reafforesting our increasingly denuded, drought and fire prone country is daunting. And with the increasing issues of Climate Change, widescale mining destruction and population expansion, it can almost seen as almost impossible.
But we must make a start. Start by acting locally. Join a bushcare group. Support organizations that are preserving large areas of land for animal and species survival. Act to save areas from large-scale commercial development. Fight to save National Parks from commercial invasion. Support organizations such as the State EDOs ,who support environmental groups with pro-bono legal support. Act politically. Support candidates who support the environment. Protect what we have left with your time, support and money.
Fight the myth that we must continue to develop to maintain our standard of living. Help farming communities to create more sustainable practices and reward those who do so.
Always remember- we are not the owners of our lands and seas, but their stewards. We leave this land and sea to our children and our childrens’ children.
guytaur
What? A furriner?
Chuckles.
Socrates:
Matt Canavan has said the govt is looking to underwrite 10 coal fired power stations. Taylor didn’t confirm that, but it’s obviously on the cards.
Signing up to a new plant or life extension, as much as my prejudices against the Liberals want me to believe otherwise, is beyond the level of irresponsibility of even the looniest Liberal. There are quite simply no plans sufficiently advanced that a proponent could enter into a binding arrangement with the commonwealth.
You my friend suffer from a lack of imagination.
Socrates @ #101 Sunday, March 3rd, 2019 – 7:06 am
When I was last living in Karratha (north-west coast of WA) there was an organisation there was a company converting algae grown in salt water into biofuel. The process is technically feasible, though not economically feasible at the moment. They are currently making natural “medicine” products from the algae.
Socrates @ #14 Sunday, March 3rd, 2019 – 8:37 am
Good timing! There was some discussion here yesterday that migration was the only thing keeping our economy growing. This article points out exactly that …
High levels of migration are a ‘sugar hit’ – they are not sustainable and cannot last.
The arrogance of Taylor quietly chuckling about those wogs in Europe daring to criticise Australia – when they had failed and we had, not only succeeded in reducing emissions, but had exceeded our targets – was a sight to behold.
I agree with all the media difficulties Labor faces, and yes, most commercial media economic “commentators” are spruikers, not analysts. Michael Janda and Stephen Long at ABC are not bad.
But Labor cannot shirk this battle and still expect to stay in government. There is lots to attack the government with here and Labor must do it, or they will get the blame when it goes bad while they are in office.
Also as I said before, no excuses, Labor needs people who can explain this stuff clearly and simply in key cabinet posts.
grimace
There are no coal-fired power plants or life extensions on that list.
Thanks – that is very reassuring. I wish the elction had been yesterday, but there will be time to clean up the errors of the (self-ordained) Muppet Show.
Labor has already said that they will not honour any coal underwriting deals that have not been legislated.
ratsak @ #114 Sunday, March 3rd, 2019 – 7:14 am
You’re right, I am suitably chastised.
Upon chastised reflection, it’s not much fo a step from granting $443m to someone who didn’t ask for it to signing up to a multi billion dollar project baced by Party donors that exists only in a fancy promotional video
Sorry everyone.
Agnes Taylor speaks a load of shit re. emissions.
Vogon Poet @ #120 Sunday, March 3rd, 2019 – 10:20 am
Can you provide a link to support that ?
Grimace
The specialist biofuel installations like algae to biofuel are fine, but my understanding is they are still not economic on the large scale. Australia consumes just over one million barrels of oil per day so the operative word is LARGE scale. It would be cheaper and better to have EVs and more public transport, both powered by a renewable grid.
I’m counting ten straight Newspolls that Morrison has lost – add five more before the election for fifteen. If he ‘has a go and gets a go’ and stays on as leader if they lose, he can still get to that coveted (in Liberal circles) thirty straight – around mid-December, so maybe the last Newspoll of 2019.
What a terrific achievement that could be (though Abbott and Turnbull would probably argue that losses in Opposition shouldn’t count as much as losses while in Government).
We have passed the danger of the government funding a new coal mine.
The LNP are going to lose. (Usual caveats apply).
Labor has committed to no taxpayers money to new coal mines.
Only the current LNP have this on their agenda.
The only question is how fast we transition away from coal to renewables. Yes that includes exports and is something we need to recognise so we can plan manufacturing to replace it
Edit: As an example. Massive taxpayer money to make the Newcastle Uni printing solar cells a reality.
@Bill Shorten Twitter:
“A little tip for Liberal Minister for Health – if you want to tackle out of pocket costs for doctor visits, reverse your cuts to Medicare.”
Isn’t there also some kind of rule that any deals done on election eve, so to speak, are not binding on the new govt?
Mavis Davis
While you’re here. I appreciate the links to the early Sutherland. Reminds me of my own singing days.
Only during the caretaker period Jen.
Rex Douglas @ #123 Sunday, March 3rd, 2019 – 10:25 am
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/aug/17/neg-labor-warns-it-will-not-back-taxpayer-support-for-new-coal-fired-power
jen
“Isn’t there also some kind of rule that any deals done on election eve, so to speak, are not binding on the new govt?”
You are correct, but they threw the rulebook out long ago. The Vic State Liberals signed up to EW Link under the most appalling conditions during what should have been the caretaker convention. It should be a law, because the “conservatives” care nothing about conventions any more.
jenauthor
Trouble is, we’re not officially into election/caretaker mode, and I bet ScoMo drags this out as long as poss.
Rob Oakeshott:
https://www.oakeshott.com.au/oakeshott_shows_support_for_disability_employment_sector_with_visit_to_key_employment_in_coffs_harbour
Jenauthor @10:27 “Isn’t there also some kind of rule that any deals done on election eve, so to speak, are not binding on the new govt?”
Only during the ‘Caretaker period’, which starts when the writs are issued, and that’s just a convention.
jenauthor:
I think it works this way: once FauxMo announces the election date, writs are issued and this apology for a government goes into caretaker mode, with the result that policies, appointments, etc, are held in abeyance.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/18/government-cannot-fund-new-coal-plants-without-parliamentary-approval-advice-says
Speaking of caretaker mode, NSW went into it as of Friday.
Taz @ #130 Sunday, March 3rd, 2019 – 10:30 am
Yes, but what about taxpayer funding the rebuilding of existing coal fired power stations ?
The number of Billionaires in 2018 (The Spectator Index):
Billionaires, 2018.
US: 585
China: 373
Germany: 123
India: 119
Russia: 101
Hong Kong: 67
UK: 54
Canada: 46
South Korea: 44
Australia: 43
Italy: 43
Brazil: 42
France: 40
Switzerland: 36
Turkey: 36
Japan: 35
Spain: 29
Singapore: 22
(Forbes)
Onebobsworth @ #111 Sunday, March 3rd, 2019 – 10:12 am
I agree with your last statement, but the rest is a bit doubtful. While it sounds like a good idea, there is little point in planting new trees while we continue to be so keen on bulldozing the old ones. Tackling illegal (and legal!) land clearing is one of the most significant things we could do in the short term to reduce our C02 emissions (second only to stopping the burning of brown coal) …
https://www.wilderness.org.au/news-events/10-facts-about-deforestation-in-australia
Lol Rex clutching at straws.
Since you have the time to bitch and whinge about Labor how about do your own research
Since the Greenies do more Labor bashing than Liberal Bashing.
You’re most welcome, lizzie. Are you still singing?
Vogon Poet @ #136 Sunday, March 3rd, 2019 – 10:33 am
Aha !! , so, it doesn’t support it, but will honour contracts anyway.
Lib-Lab propping up coal for their donors.
Angus Taylor speaking against windfarms in 2014.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TaKl81Rl3zg
One final point. If the public wants this to be a climate change election Labor should not avoid it. There is good reason for this election to be based on climate change. There will never be an easier time to make the case that we need to act. The summer we just had, our hottest ever, was 2.1’C above long term averages. A 2 degree C increase in average temperature is exactly the change we are headed for if the world does not resolve climate change policy within the next few years. The summer we just had really will be the new normal, if we fail. Plus Labor can create a lot of jobs fixing climate change.
https://theconversation.com/2018-19-was-australias-hottest-summer-on-record-with-a-warm-autumn-likely-too-112616
Michael Mazengarb:
Here is the report Angus Taylor is talking about on #insiders
Emission up 0.9%, as @barriecassidy rightly points out
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D0r-L2yV4AEkVPJ?format=jpg&name=small
The increasing trend in th commercialisation of walking trails in national parks
Tourism Queensland chair faced perceived conflict of interest in national park tender
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-03/queensland-tourism-perceived-conflict-of-interest-managed/10851100
I have just finished reading this:
https://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2019/march/1551445200/michael-quigley/what-happened-broadband-australia
If ever there were an issue that should haunt the coalition forever it’s how they deliberately and willfully bungled our broadband technology investment.
Most federal government contracts, including the political GBRF $444 grant, have a clause known as the ‘termination for convenience’ clause. In short, if government policy changes, the contract can be cancelled – with compensation or restitution of amounts spent to date.
The coal underwriting ones would surely have something similar, and Angus and the coal lovers have made the mistake of leaving this too late for much expenditure to have been incurred