Sturtin’ over

As Liberal MPs stampede for the exit, some detail on a number of looming preselections.

We may not get a new federal poll this week, with the fortnightly Newspoll and Essential Research having reported last week, and the monthly Ipsos doing so the week before. However, two further Liberal resignations (with widespread suggestions Craig Laundy will shortly follow in Reid) are keeping the preselection news treadmill rolling:

• Christopher Pyne’s departure announcements opens a vacancy in the eastern Adelaide seat of Sturt, which he has held since 1993, when he was 25. However, the loss of his personal vote may damage the Liberals’ chances of defending the seat’s 5.4% post-redistribution margin, with Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review reporting a “senior South Australian Liberal” saying the party was in “big trouble” in the seat. Luke Griffiths of The Australian cites “multiple Liberal sources” as saying the preselection is “almost certain” to go to James Stevens, the chief-of-staff to Premier Steven Marshall, who is aligned with Pyne’s moderate faction and has his personal support. However, Pyne’s own former chief-of-staff, Adam Howard, is “considered an outside chance”, and there “might be a push by branch members to preselect a female candidate”.

• The Gold Coast seat of Moncrieff will be vacated by the retirement of Steve Ciobo, who came to the seat in 2001 at the age of 27. The aforesaid report in The Australian identifies four potential nominees: Karly Abbott, a staffer to Ciobo and the reputed front-runner; John-Paul Langbroek, who holds the state seat of Surfers Paradise and served as Opposition Leader from 2009 to 2011; Tim Rawlings, former chief-of-staff to Tracy Davis, then a minister in Campbell Newman’s government; and Bibe Roadley, managing director of a training company.

Also:

• The West Australian reports five nominees for preselection in Curtin: Celia Hammond, until recently the vice-chancellor of Notre Dame University, whom media reports suggest is the front-runner; Erin Watson-Lynn, director of Asialink Diplomacy at the University of Melbourne, who is said to have backing from Julie Bishop; Anna Dartnell, an executive for resources company Aurizon; Karen Caddy, Stirling councillor and management consultant for BusinX Consulting; and the sole male candidate, Andres Timmermanis, Cambridge councillor and manager for IT firm Scantek Solutions, who has been mentioned in relation to a number of western suburbs preselections over the years.

• The Saturday Paper reports a uComms poll conducted for UnionsACT on January 23 suggested ACT Liberal Senator Zed Seselja was in danger of losing his seat to an independent or the Greens. The polling is said to show Liberal support at 22.4%, down from 33.2% at the 2016 election and 24.2% in a poll conducted in October; Labor on 33.1%, down from 37.9% in 2016 and 39.3% in the October; the Greens on 19.9%, up from 16.1% in 2016 and 17.0% in October; and independent/other on 17.7%, up from 12.7% in 2016 and 13.9% in October. This leaves 6.9% undecided in the January poll, and 5.6% in the October poll. Seselja is also credited with an approval rating of just 29%, compared with 59% disapproval. Anthony Pesec, “local businessman, former investment banker and renewable energy developer”, announced last week he would run as an independent. Were Seselja to lose, it would be the first time in either of the two territories that the two Senate seats did not split between the two major parties.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,872 comments on “Sturtin’ over”

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  4. Workers were supposed to be losing $5,000 per year a few days ago.

    Now it’s $9,000 per year.

    When is a journo going to confront the Libs about this obvious lie?

    ScoMo tells us they’re the greatest friend of women in politics.

    Emissions have never been lower and are going down, down, down.

    Eh?

  5. Confessions says:

    zoid:

    There simply isn’t the available land to plant the number of trees required to abate our GHGEs.

    A guy from The Men of the Trees pointed out the big fly in the ointment re tree planting ‘fixing’ emissions or even making a meaningful contribution. The only places where it is sensible to plant large tracts of trees just happens to be in our prime agricultural/horticultural regions.

  8. Cassidy refusing to give in to Hawke.

    When pollies throw figures around like confetti, it’s hard to keep track.

  9. What is it with Liberal MPs that they can simply assert black is white or white is black, and when challenged just keep on blathering? Taylor like the motormouth PM could likely talk under water!

  10. Her Indoors is having to be restrained from kicking our beautiful OLED TV.

    I told her to go downstairs and kick the old LCD one.

    She says it’s not the same satisfaction level.

  11. I’m sitting here beneath a smoke haze and a high temp forecast, wondering why I should have confidence in a bigmouth like Hawke.

  19. Why do journalists keep letting Coalition spruikers get away with “Labor deficit”, when theirs is worse?

  20. This s supposedly the killer line.
    “When the wind doesn’t blow and the sun doesn’t shine, Barrie, we still want to be able to watch the ABC.”

  21. Angus Taylor is the minister currently being interviewed. Not Hawke.

    Also hes absolutely lying and Cassidy isnt going hard enough to challenge him.

  23. Bushfire Bill

    ScoMo tells us they’re the greatest friend of women in politics.

    Which is obviously not true as I’ve seen those Clive Palmer advertisements and learnt that Clive is definitely their greatest friend………… They’re so convincing 🙂

  25. ‘sprocket_ says:
    Sunday, March 3, 2019 at 9:32 am

    Angus intimates he will underwrite 10 coal powered power stations.

    Hard ask from the Opposition Benches’

    My fear for some months is that they will sign the contracts before announcing the election.

  28. Morrison doesn’t have to explain anything about Ita Buttrose.

    The explanation is required within 15 sitting days.

    There are only 3 left before the election.

  29. So the selection process turned up one woman to be interviewed. Sounds like the Liberal luvvies who have stacked the ABC board.

  30. The Liberals got away with it in Victoria.

    A sure fire way of determining policy from opposition and constraining the next government. Just sign up contracts for $billions with crippling penalties for cancellation.

  31. Boerwar @ #75 Sunday, March 3rd, 2019 – 9:35 am

    ‘sprocket_ says:
    Sunday, March 3, 2019 at 9:32 am

    Angus intimates he will underwrite 10 coal powered power stations.

    Hard ask from the Opposition Benches’

    My fear for some months is that they will sign the contracts before announcing the election.

    Yes, we can all see what’s going to happen.

    Coalition will sign contracts and Bill Shorten won’t commit before the election to cancelling them.

  35. The Coalition trying not to say the word ‘Coal’ is like Wayne Swan trying to not say the word ‘Deficit’ when in government.

  39. I fear for the nation if the Public Hospital system cannot cope with 300 asylum seekers. What will happen to us if we have an epidemic!?! A terrorist attack, god forbid!?! A plane crash, god forbid!?!

  40. ‘Best economic managers? Pfft’

    Well , yes…most punters seem to think so. Labor seems unwilling to attempt any sort of push back. When was the last time you heard Chris Bowen or Bill Shorten beat the government up over the colossal debt they’ve racked up?

    Debt and the NBN 2.0 farce. Anyone from Labor HQ want to touch it….?

    My tory neighbor doesn’t believe debt has doubled because if it had he’d know…..

  42. guytaur says:
    Sunday, March 3, 2019 at 9:47 am
    Morning

    Middleton nailedit. The LNP have an election strategy not a climate strategy.

    _
    Bullseye.

  45. All the praise for Ita’s ‘independence’ may well be justified, but if she’s at heart a conservative, she will use that ‘independence’ to argue against any complaints by Labor. She would have been more effective against Lib interference, IMO.

  46. When was the last time you Chris Bowen or Bill Shorten beat the government up over the colossal debt they’ve racked up?

    Hundreds of times. Maybe you and your neighbour are unaware of it, mundo, because it doesn’t get through the net the media outlets you patronise use to filter out Labor commentary?

  48. The figure of 300 AS that will engulf Australia is based on nothing more than government bullshit that has had the “ rinse and repeat “ treatment from the MSM.

    Doctors and refugee advocates have identified around 70 cases that have the most urgency. Nauru will not allow AS to be transferred without a prolonged battle so any transfers in the short term at least will be from Manus and will be around 40 to 50 and that is dependent on the government actually doing anything.

  50. The sudden need for ABC independence couldn’t possibly have anything to do with the coalition being on the edge of being swept out of office.

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