BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate again records little change this week. Also featured: updates on important preselections for the Liberal Party, who are persistently butting their heads against gender issues.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate, updated with this week’s results from Newspoll and Essential Research, remains unimpressed with much of the recent opinion poll commentary, maintaining a slow trend back to the Coalition that appears to go back to December. The movement since last week on two-party preferred is negligible, with a weak result for the Coalition cancelling out a somewhat stronger one from Essential Research, converting into a one-seat gain for the Coalition on the seat projection. Newspoll provides new numbers for the leadership ratings trends, which are all but unchanged. Full details on the link below.

Other news:

The Guardian reports uComms/ReachTEL polls for GetUp! conducted on Thursday found independent Zali Steggall leading Tony Abbott 57-43 in Warringah, while Labor’s Ali France led Peter Dutton 52-48 in Dickson. The poll also found majority support for the medical evacuations bill in both electorates.

• Following Julie Bishop’s retirement announcement, Andrew Burrell of The Australian reports Bishop’s hope of anointing her own successor in Curtin is likely to be scotched by her opponents, most notably Mathias Cormann. Bishop has reportedly been pushing for Erin Watson-Lynn, 33-year-old director of Asialink Diplomacy at the University of Melbourne. However, a highly fancied rival has emerged this week in Celia Hammond, who resigned on Monday as vice-chancellor at Notre Dame University. Hammond’s social conservatism is noted in a further report in The Australian today, relating a speech from 2013 in which she “railed against sex before marriage and contraception, while arguing against ‘militant feminism’”.

• A Liberal preselection vote on Saturday to choose Michael Keenan’s successor in the Perth northern suburbs seat of Stirling was won by Vince Connelly, risk management adviser at Woodside and former army officer. This was despite the wish of local party heavyweights Mathias Cormann and Peter Collier, along with Keenan himself, for the seat to go to a woman – specifically Joanne Quinn, legal counsel at Edith Cowan University. Quinn was in fact knocked out in the early rounds, together with Georgina Fraser, business development manager with a subsidiary of Kleenheat Gas, and Taryn Houghton, manager with a mental health support not-for-profit. Connelly prevailed in the final round over Michelle Sutherland, high school teacher, Bayswater councillor and wife of former state MP Michael Sutherland. His win out of an otherwise all-female field of five excited much commentary about the Liberal Party’s deficiencies in preselecting women, including my own analysis in Crikey on Monday.

• Sighs of relief could be heard from the Liberal hierarchy the following day when the preselection to replace Kelly O’Dwyer in Higgins was won by Katie Allen, paediatrician and unsuccessful candidate for Prahran at the state election in November. Allen prevailed in the final round with 158 votes to 116 for a male rival, Greg Hannan, former state party vice-president and factional moderate who ran against Michael Kroger for the presidency. Excluded after the penultimate round was Zoe McKenzie, “a non-executive director of the NBN board and former chief of staff to Abbott/Turnbull government trade minister Andrew Robb”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,270 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor”

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  1. I just hope that the congregation for the defense of the Catholic Church here deigns to allow us to comment freely once the Pell Appeal is over.

  2. The Cohen hearing: The most important and worst moments for Trump and the GOP he corrupted – Jennifer Rubin

    Michael Cohen’s testimony is as unprecedented as it is stunning: A direct witness to the actions of the president of the United States presented specific evidence of the president’s decades-old pattern of lying, financial fraud, intimidation and betrayal of his country for personal gain.

    Cohen has given all of the information and more to prosecutors. Trump and the GOP are living on borrowed time. If not by legal or congressional action, Trump’s organization has been revealed for what it is: A sort of mob-like entity ruled by a pathological liar for whom laws and truth are irrelevant.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/02/27/cohen-hearing-most-important-worst-moments-trump-gop-he-corrupted/?utm_term=.73f3da1a063c

  3. Here are five felonies Trump committed — if Cohen is telling the truth – Max Boot

    Cohen’s testimony includes accusations — relating to Trump’s racism, his lack of concern for the public weal and his attempts to conceal his academic record — that, if true, are simply embarrassing. But, as noted by Max Bergmann of the Moscow Project at the Center for American Progress, the president’s former lawyer also implicated him in at least four felonies:

    1. Conspiracy to defraud the United States
    2. Lying to the FBI and the Justice Department
    3. Suborning perjury
    4. Violating campaign finance laws.
    To these four offenses, one may add: 5. Bank, wire and tax fraud.

    It’s true that Cohen is a crook and liar — after all, he pleaded guilty to lying to Congress — but he has every incentive to tell the truth now. Cohen has already been sentenced to three years in prison. He will not reduce his sentence any further with his testimony — but he could substantially add to it if he once again lied to Congress. He was, after all, testifying under oath, something Trump notably refuses to do. Cohen, a convicted felon, sounded more credible and convincing than the president — or his Republican defenders. He may go down as the John Dean of Russia-gate.

    There are only two ways out: resignation or impeachment. Otherwise, the United States will suffer through nearly two more years of this car wreck of a presidency.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/02/27/here-are-five-felonies-trump-committed-if-cohen-is-telling-truth/?utm_term=.eebc38fd6a9b

  4. Tom Connell is Speers Newsletter sounding the death nell for FrankingRortGate…

    “So, what about franked dividends, or as the government has dubbed it, the retiree tax? I struggle to see it biting.

    Under pressure when the policy was announced, Labor exempted pensioners (there’s an asterisk here for self-managed super funds but it really is at the margins). The exemption means a couple can own their own home, have $848,000 dollars in other assets and still get the part pension, meaning they get the dividend refund. Just over the assets test? No worries, blow some cash on a cruise (just make sure you stay disciplined near the roulette table or you’ll end up on the full pension), and you’ll qualify for the exemption. Way above it? As Labor privately concedes, you probably won’t be voting for them anyway.

    Some retirees are furious – I would be too if I had set up for my retirement and the rules changed. But remember each time you hear about how much someone will lose in franking credit refunds, a rough rule of thumb is to multiply that by 33, and you get their total Australian share value. They tend to be well above the bread line.

    And if you don’t get the refund? Welcome to the club, sorry there are no chairs left; you’re part of the 92% of Australian taxpayers.‘

  5. GG, last thread you told everyone criticising Pell to “chill out”. And you weren’t the only one to use that particular phrase in attempting to stifle criticism of Pell.

  6. “Catholics have emailed me saying they’re donating entire inheritances to Pell’s legal fees.”

    Amazing. Although the Catholic Church is an expert fund raising institute. Perhaps they should have used peoples’ donations to compensate fellow Catholics destroyed by child abuse perpetrated by their clergy.

  7. GG, I will not “chill out” over powerful men, with deep and wide connections in the political & business communities, who put themselves forward as arbiters of moral right and wrong, sticking their penises into children’s bodies and thinking they’re perfectly entitled to do so.

  8. Roman Quaedvlieg
    ‏@quaedvliegs
    Feb 26

    In 32 years of policing, I encountered many pedophiles. Businessmen, family men, sportsmen, policemen, homeless men, wealthy men, neighbourly men, religious men etc.

    They’ve had two things in common: they’re all men and they’re all pedophiles. Their exterior persona means zero.

  9. This is the biggest political take-out from the Pell conviction so far:

    “The former prime minister John Howard has described Cardinal George Pell as “a person of both high intelligence and exemplary character” and says that his conviction on child sexual abuse charges doesn’t “alter my opinion of the Cardinal” in a character reference.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/27/tony-abbott-says-george-pell-verdict-is-devastating

    John Howard is saying that he thinks sticking your penis into a child’s body is consistent with having an “exemplary character”. What a disgusting grub of an individual!

  10. Hugh Riminton
    ‏@hughriminton
    22h22 hours ago

    Extraordinary argument being put by legal academic and Australian Catholic University boss Greg Craven – blaming “ABC and Fairfax” for #GeorgePell’s conviction.

  11. So for cricket tragics wanting a break from Pellbludger –

    Glenn Maxwell score 113 not out of 55 balls out of 3/194 to beat India 4/190 with two balls left in T20.

    I like this comment on cricinfo

    VJ: “It’s only February but already the best Test innings and best T20 innings awards of 2019 have been sewn up – by Kusal Perera and Maxwell respectively.”

    Meanwhile the West Indies in Grenada (in a day ODI game which coincidentally started at exactly the time as the India-Australia T20), are 4/252 chasing England’s 6/418. But Chris Gayle is still there on 131 not out ff 72 balls so ther is some hope.

  12. GG, ‘What, more freely and unexpurgated than has already been occurring?’

    I can understand many Catholics would be devastated and a tough time for them who cannot believe the verdict and the extent of coverup and corruption unearthed by the RC.

    I have relatives that are Catholics and they see this simply as an anti-Catholic conspiracy. That is their method of coping. What I don’t understand is their complete lack of compassion for the victims. I have no idea what they think of 12 suicides out of a class of 33 at at a Ballarat school. They should think about them and other victims and not defend the people who have put them through hell.

    I am not saying you are defending these people, but your comments are not helping the victims.

  13. Labor is a party that lectures us on climate change action, but are opposing changes that will reduce the amount of printing done by parliamentarians.
    — Alex Hawke

    As Crikey says: an interesting reaction.

  14. PeeBee @ #15 Thursday, February 28th, 2019 – 7:18 am

    GG, ‘What, more freely and unexpurgated than has already been occurring?’

    I can understand many Catholics would be devastated and a tough time for them who cannot believe the verdict and the extent of coverup and corruption unearthed by the RC.

    I have relatives that are Catholics and they see this simply as an anti-Catholic conspiracy. That is their method of coping. What I don’t understand is their complete lack of compassion for the victims. I have no idea what they think of 12 suicides out of a class of 33 at at a Ballarat school. They should think about them and other victims and not defend the people who have put them through hell.

    I am not saying you are defending these people, but your comments are not helping the victims.

    I doubt the descent in to mob hysteria as represented by much of the commentary here and elsewhere is is helping the victims much either.

  15. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Michael Koziol outlines Abbott’s call to Pell after the guilty verdict.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/devastating-tony-abbott-called-his-friend-george-pell-following-release-of-guilty-verdict-20190227-p510n5.html
    These are the ten people who wrote post-verdict references for Pell.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/victoria/thoughtful-considerate-the-people-who-wrote-character-references-for-george-pell-revealed-20190227-p510pp.html
    Nick Miller reports that the Vatican has opened an investigation into Pell and that Pope Francis may end up with the final say on whether George Pell is booted from the clergy for abusing children.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/vatican-opens-investigation-into-pell-that-could-see-him-defrocked-20190227-p510qe.html
    John Ellis is a Sydney lawyer and the survivor of a priest’s sexual abuse and he explains why history will judge George Pell, the cardinal who sought to crush him.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/history-will-judge-george-pell-the-cardinal-who-sought-to-crush-me-20190227-p510ma.html
    This is David Marr at his best.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/27/take-him-away-please-george-pell-had-not-dressed-for-prison-but-thats-where-he-went
    Bianca Hall examines the backlash against Pell’s conviction.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/cardinal-sin-critics-raise-questions-about-george-pell-s-conviction-20190227-p510iv.html
    Here is an extract from the now unembargoed book where she goes into the experiences of the two choir boys over which Pell was convicted.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/28/the-kid-and-the-choirboy-the-harrowing-story-of-george-pells-victims
    Clinical psychologist Kim Felmingham writes that while this conviction will provide a sense of justice and validation for many, the reactions of survivors and their families are likely to be complex and varied and may include anger, validation, sadness, loss and relief.
    https://theconversation.com/triggering-past-trauma-how-to-take-care-of-yourself-if-youre-affected-by-the-pell-news-112608
    Jewel Topsfield tells us what Pell’s time in prison will be like.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/pell-first-night-behind-bars-in-jail-steeped-in-misery-and-despair-20190227-p510oc.html
    Professor of Sociology Andre Singleton says that after Pell, the Catholic Church must undergo genuine reform.
    https://theconversation.com/after-pell-the-catholic-church-must-undergo-genuine-reform-112511
    John Warhurst examines the workings of the “chums”.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/act/hello-to-the-world-of-insiders-20190226-p510g0.html
    John Hewson is concerned that the climate issue is one that threatens our political duopoly.
    https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/climate-the-crisis-that-threatens-our-political-duopoly-20190227-p510j7.html
    The SMH editorial says that Coalition’s late conversion to climate action stretches credibility.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/coalition-s-late-conversion-to-climate-action-stretches-credibility-20190227-p510k6.html
    Katharine Murphy reports that the Morrison government will persist with its attempted climate policy pivot by promising $50m in grants for businesses and community organisations to embark on energy efficiency projects, and an additional $17m to help building owners benchmark their energy use.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/28/morrison-pledges-50m-in-energy-efficiency-grants-as-part-of-climate-policy-pivot
    In what is not good news Greg Jericho explains that one of the key sectors for job growth looks to be slowing drastically.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2019/feb/28/one-of-the-key-sectors-for-job-growth-looks-to-be-slowing-drastically
    Esther Han reports that NSW Opposition Leader Michael Daley has vowed to end “no grounds” evictions in the first 100 days of a Labor government, despite a recent tenancy law review recommending against it.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/shifting-the-power-labor-vows-to-abolish-no-grounds-eviction-20190227-p510ka.html
    Jess Irvine says that mortgage brokers must be celebrating Labor’s backflip.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/mortgage-brokers-must-be-celebrating-labor-s-backflip-20190227-p510n4.html
    Industry superannuation fund members are more satisfied with the performances of their accounts than they were 12 months ago, according to new figures.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/superannuation/2019/02/27/industry-super-customer-satisfaction/
    Financial crime expert, Nathan Lynch interviews the Greens who claim that anti-money laundering reforms have been thwarted by “vested interests” in property and the legal sectors.
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/anti-money-laundering-reforms-thwarted-by-vested-interests-say-greens/
    Shane Wright explains how Morrison is facing an increasingly soft economy in the run-up to his pre-election budget, with signs government spending on infrastructure is failing to offset a sharp drop in housing construction across the nation.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/signs-of-economic-slowdown-as-construction-drops-off-20190227-p510l6.html
    Eryk Bagshaw outlines how the PM’s office has turned a taxpayer funded inquiry into a Liberal advertising campaign.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/pm-s-office-turns-taxpayer-funded-inquiry-into-liberal-advertising-campaign-20190225-p5105o.html
    The BCA has had a gutful of politics.
    https://www.outline.com/TU9Uph
    What’s going on here? The Italian ambassador to Aust­ralia has been “recalled” to Rome in mysterious circumstances after he was accused of alleging that the Coalition government had “colluded” with the British over the billion-dollar frigate contract last year.
    https://www.outline.com/zpsnZL
    The ballooning edifice of corporate debt across the world is of ever lower quality and potentially more dangerous than it was at the outset of the Lehman crisis, the OECD club of rich nations has warned.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/companies-18t-debt-bubble-could-spark-a-devastating-global-fire-sale-20190227-p510hp.html
    Fergus Hunter tells us that former ABC chairman Maurice Newman has lashed the decision to ignore the recommendations of an independent panel in selecting the next leader of the public broadcaster, as the government prepares to announce publishing icon Ita Buttrose as its choice.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/former-abc-chair-maurice-newman-lashes-unfair-ita-buttrose-appointment-process-20190227-p510m4.html
    As I type Michael Cohen is unloading on Trump in Congress. The Republicans are in a very defensive and aggressive mood.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/racist-conman-cheat-former-fixer-cohen-unloads-on-trump-before-congress-20190228-p510qh.html
    The White House abruptly banned four US journalists from covering President Donald Trump’s dinner on Wednesday with North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un after some of them shouted questions at the leaders during their earlier meetings.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/white-house-bans-four-journalists-from-covering-trump-kim-dinner-20190228-p510qg.html
    Complex legal terminology and ignorance by the mainstream media is making environmental protection increasingly difficult, writes Sue Arnold.
    https://independentaustralia.net/environment/environment-display/environmental-protection-is-no-simple-matter,12418
    Elizabeth Knight says no news is good news for the embattles Myer.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/for-ailing-department-store-myer-no-news-is-good-news-20190227-p510lt.html
    I think we need a new category – “Idiot of the Week”!
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/simply-daft-man-who-towed-boat-down-highway-with-mobility-scooter-escapes-jail-time-20190227-p510mc.html

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe in Hanoi.

    Oh dear! David Pope with Howard’s character reference. And look at the incense lamp!

    Cathy Wilcox and some causation information.

    An Alan Moir reflection.

    From Matt Golding.





    Matt Davison and the Catholic Church.

    John Shakespeare with Morrison’s headwear selection.

    A good one from Andrew Dyson.

    From Glen Le Lievre.


    Jon Kudelka in Hanoi.
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/f5d568f621a7a75fe7fb60cf3f492694

    From the US



  16. Morning all. On Pell and the reactions of people like Craven, we must remember that Pell ruled the church in Australia with an iron fist for two decades. Followers were promoted and challengers were squeezed out of their church jobs. (I know several who lost jobs for not toeing the line.). Not surprising those who remain in church jobs will back him blindly. That is why they were picked.

  17. What’s going on here? The Italian ambassador to Aust­ralia has been “recalled” to Rome in mysterious circumstances after he was accused of alleging that the Coalition government had “colluded” with the British over the billion-dollar frigate contract last year.

  18. “Mob hysteria”? About the most senior Catholic in this country putting his cock in a 13 year olds mouth?

    Typical Catholic bullshit stifling of an argument.

    Suppress the victims. Great religious model.

    Why don’t all you Pell apologists go and self flagellate instead of telling the rest of us to shut up.

  19. peeBee,

    Then, you are not reading and hearing what I’m reading and hearing.

    Sadly, it’s a bigot’s free for all from where I’m standing.

    You only have to look at Socrates comment just below. Apparently, anyone doubting or mounting an argument against the conviction has been cowed in to submission and deserve to have their reputations as scholars traduced.

    And, that’s only the mild end of the reaction.

    The victim’s deserve justice. So does everyone.

  20. Pope Innocent The Third @ #24 Thursday, February 28th, 2019 – 7:49 am

    “Mob hysteria”? About the most senior Catholic in this country putting his cock in a 13 year olds mouth?

    Typical Catholic bullshit stifling of an argument.

    Suppress the victims. Great religious model.

    Why don’t all you Pell apologists go and self flagellate instead of telling the rest of us to shut up.

    Right on cue. Thank you for demonstrating my point.

  21. Six emergency relief camps have been set up in Sialkot (Pakistan) in view of a possible Indian offensive tonight along the Line of control.
    Pakistan airspace to remain closed until midnight on Thursday
    Emergency sirens currently sounding in Hyderabad, South East Pakistan.
    Indian PM has given Indian military freedom to move forward/take “necessary” action.
    Pakistani tanks have been filmed moving through Sialkot south towards the Line of Control with India
    Report from @muhammadbySky that the Indian aircraft carrier INS Vikrant is currently moving North towards Karachi.

  22. Leave to appeal might be granted.
    The appeal might be successful.
    IMO, it is likely that leave to appeal will be granted.
    The victim in this case:
    1. Suffered oral rape
    2. Lived with it for decades
    3. Was forced to re-live it by giving evidence during the RC into child sex abuse
    4. Was forced to re-live it a trial which resulted in a hung jury.
    5. Was forced to re-live it in a retrial.
    6. Is being forced to re-live it during a leave to appeal process.
    7. Will probably be forced to re-live it during the appeal process.
    8. If the appeal is successful will be forced to re-live 1-7 for the rest of his life.

    This single case has already cost us all, in one way or another, several million dollars. It has cost a life, years of professional efforts by various participants, and a mass emotional investment/exhaustion/desperation by hundreds of thousands of Australians. I say this of the victims, their families, their friends and those who support them from a distance. I say this of all the good, decent Roman Catholics who bust a gut for social justice and who live good lives.

    But I wonder whether personalizing the issues and seeking resolution – justice and emotional resolution in what amounts to a national trial will change anything much at all. Regardless of the final legal outcome.

    Despite having been a victim of a psycho-sexual regime of sadism in an RCC boarding school, I am no longer all that concerned about the RCC’s current practices which are, IMO, robust in terms of protecting the many hundreds of thousands of its children in its institutional care (in Australia but not globally). IMO, its reparations are pathetic. It has yet to go anywhere nearing paying fair compensation.

    But here is what does concern me. We know that there are, in Australia something like 40,000 child sexual abuse complaints a year – by far the most of which happen in the family home.

    In all the current uproar we are, as a nation, more or less totally silent about this. It is as if this does not count in the culture war. It is as if this is not a Left/Right item so it does not count. It is as if it is simply too hard because there is no easy us/them binary to get offensive or defensive about. It is as if, because it is not blog-post easy, or facebook celeb simple, or tweetable, we simply don’t know how even to start.

    It is as if we have no idea about what to do to prevent fathers and mothers, brothers and sisters, aunts and uncles, grandmothers and grandfathers and friends of families from sexually abusing weaker members of the family.

    Tens of thousands of lives are ruined every year. What do we do about this? Where, as a nation, do we even begin?

    Is the ultimate failure of the Pell case not that it bastardizes and rebastardizes a rape victim, not that it costs many millions of dollars to legally resolve five cases out of hundreds of thousands of incidences, not whether it serves as some sort of proxy for the behaviour of the RCC, not whether it serves as a lightning rod for both terrible individual pain and for sectarian hatred, not that it serves as yet an other totally useless and destructive item in the arid Culture War, but that it enables us all to avoid an uncomfortable truth?

  23. Hear hear, Pope Innocent The Third.

    A good friend of mine was horrendously abused in primary school and then passed on to others in high school. I know the details but I will not pass them on in this forum. It has effectively ruined his life. When he finally plucked up the courage to do something about it two of the perpetrators were dead and one was already on trial. My friend was not required as a witness.

    Even the process of asking for compensation was a long painful process with the church trying every trick in the book not to pay, including accusing him of not even attending that school. When an offer of compensation was finally made, even that was turned into a confrontational issue. No amount of money can compensate or what my friend, and others, went through. It was a product of the times that when he told his parents (staunch catholics) he was blamed and told not to tell lies. There was, of course, no way that men of the church would behave in such a way.

    The church is simply evil for turning a blind eye to this issue for so long.

  24. Normally if the Australian Cricket team was in India whilst tensions are rising with Pakistan there would be fears about their safety. But with this Australian team nobody really cares.

  25. allan moyes @ #29 Thursday, February 28th, 2019 – 8:11 am

    Hear hear, Pope Innocent The Third.

    A good friend of mine was horrendously abused in primary school and then passed on to others in high school. I know the details but I will not pass them on in this forum. It has effectively ruined his life. When he finally plucked up the courage to do something about it two of the perpetrators were dead and one was already on trial. My friend was not required as a witness.

    Even the process of asking for compensation was a long painful process with the church trying every trick in the book not to pay, including accusing him of not even attending that school. When an offer of compensation was finally made, even that was turned into a confrontational issue. No amount of money can compensate or what my friend, and others, went through. It was a product of the times that when he told his parents (staunch catholics) he was blamed and told not to tell lies. There was, of course, no way that men of the church would behave in such a way.

    The church is simply evil for turning a blind eye to this issue for so long.

    All of which has nothing to do with whether Pell should have been convicted.

  26. Thanks phoenixRed for Max Boot’s column today. He is right that Trump must either be impeached or resign. Things are not going to get better, and are quite likely to get worse than they already are.

    A president who is distracted by scandal cannot carry out the people’s business — and this is already the biggest scandal in American history. President Richard M. Nixon was said to be in an alcoholic haze, talking to the portraits in the White House, as he was engulfed by Watergate. President Ronald Reagan was said to be so out of it during the worst of the Iran-contra affair that there was talk of invoking the 25th Amendment.

    We must wait for future White House memoirs to learn the details of how Trump is coping with the latest revelations. (Spoiler alert: badly.) But he was never as competent as his predecessors, and his incapacity has been exacerbated by all of the scandals he has created. There are only two ways out: resignation or impeachment. Otherwise, the United States will suffer through nearly two more years of this car wreck of a presidency.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/02/27/here-are-five-felonies-trump-committed-if-cohen-is-telling-truth/?utm_term=.925c57cb8837

  27. Morning

    Boerwar

    It is all important and counts.
    As said before, the best thing to happen in this space, is that it is all out in the open.
    These deviants whether in the home or in positions of authority or trust such as the institutions of the church, schools, and other organisations, can no longer conduct business as usual.
    Children are very well informed and the shame and secrecy of years gone by, no longer exists.
    Put it this way, my young nephews and nieces have had in their vocabulary for years now, the term of someone presenting as a pedo.
    I never knew the word existed when I was young. This is despite my great mum who counselled us from a very young age to be aware of such conduct and let her know immediately of any red flags.
    My mum never discussed it openly with friends or family present, she merely talked to us privately and quietly about it.
    With my own children and family, we talked about it openly as soon as they could understand the concept.
    It is now cyberspace where the children have to be educated as to these deviants.

  28. You never characterise all by the actions of one

    Convicted criminals are few amongst us

    There is a process at law where convictions are the result including an appeal process

    That said, the matter involving the former North Melbourne footballer exposed a problem with the law including that you need the financial resource to obtain the outcome in that matter (and that extends particularly to matters where there is no conviction but Police maintain a data base regardless, so there is nothing to appeal including as time and information that comes with time debunks the Charge which was prosecuted)

    The law does not always get it right but it is the best system we have so the unfortunate consequence of the law being an ass is the result

    Of more concern to me is the continuing revelations about the culture in our Police forces including achieving statistical bench marks as we see with traffic infringements in Victoria (at least) – and now the grooming of defence lawyers

    Then we have the interaction between Police and the media including Police maintaining a Media Unit

  29. OK. Let’s, for half a minute, assume Pell is innocent but goes to prison convicted as a child molester.

    How ironic an outcome it would be for someone who covered up for paedophile priests!

  30. Boerwar @ #28 Thursday, February 28th, 2019 – 8:06 am

    Leave to appeal might be granted.
    The appeal might be successful.
    IMO, it is likely that leave to appeal will be granted.
    The victim in this case:
    1. Suffered oral rape
    2. Lived with it for decades
    3. Was forced to re-live it by giving evidence during the RC into child sex abuse
    4. Was forced to re-live it a trial which resulted in a hung jury.
    5. Was forced to re-live it in a retrial.
    6. Is being forced to re-live it during a leave to appeal process.
    7. Will probably be forced to re-live it during the appeal process.
    8. If the appeal is successful will be forced to re-live 1-7 for the rest of his life.

    This single case has already cost us all, in one way or another, several million dollars. It has cost a life, years of professional efforts by various participants, and a mass emotional investment/exhaustion/desperation by hundreds of thousands of Australians. I say this of the victims, their families, their friends and those who support them from a distance. I say this of all the good, decent Roman Catholics who bust a gut for social justice and who live good lives.

    But I wonder whether personalizing the issues and seeking resolution – justice and emotional resolution in what amounts to a national trial will change anything much at all. Regardless of the final legal outcome.

    Despite having been a victim of a psycho-sexual regime of sadism in an RCC boarding school, I am no longer all that concerned about the RCC’s current practices which are, IMO, robust in terms of protecting the many hundreds of thousands of its children in its institutional care (in Australia but not globally). IMO, its reparations are pathetic. It has yet to go anywhere nearing paying fair compensation.

    But here is what does concern me. We know that there are, in Australia something like 40,000 child sexual abuse complaints a year – by far the most of which happen in the family home.

    In all the current uproar we are, as a nation, more or less totally silent about this. It is as if this does not count in the culture war. It is as if this is not a Left/Right item so it does not count. It is as if it is simply too hard because there is no easy us/them binary to get offensive or defensive about. It is as if, because it is not blog-post easy, or facebook celeb simple, or tweetable, we simply don’t know how even to start.

    It is as if we have no idea about what to do to prevent fathers and mothers, brothers and sisters, aunts and uncles, grandmothers and grandfathers and friends of families from sexually abusing weaker members of the family.

    Tens of thousands of lives are ruined every year. What do we do about this? Where, as a nation, do we even begin?

    Is the ultimate failure of the Pell case not that it bastardizes and rebastardizes a rape victim, not that it costs many millions of dollars to legally resolve five cases out of hundreds of thousands of incidences, not whether it serves as some sort of proxy for the behaviour of the RCC, not whether it serves as a lightning rod for both terrible individual pain and for sectarian hatred, not that it serves as yet an other totally useless and destructive item in the arid Culture War, but that it enables us all to avoid an uncomfortable truth?

    BW,

    As you know, I raised this issue constantly throughout the RC.

    My view of all RC’s is they are lawyers picnics that are designed to out source government policy development to the legal fraternity. We tend to find out what we already know and receive recommendations about matters the presiding judge has no real experience/knowledge to profer.

    As you point out, the various Institutions investigated (including the Catholic Church) have now broadly dealt with the issues of managing the future.

    But, as you rightly point out, paedophilia is a crime of opportunity. The paedophiles have moved to other theatres of debauchery. Of course, the family has always been the primary area where this behaviour has occurred and no doubt continues.

  31. GG

    Pell has been convicted. Yes, he can appeal. So frickin what.

    My intuition rarely fails me.

    Many years ago when seeing Pell, I knew he was a bad egg.

    It was confirmed to me way before anything public about Pells proclivities were known.

    Without going into too much detail, a family member is very good friends with someone whose own father who worked and lived in Ballarat during Pells time there (and is around the same age). This persons father is serving time for countless sexual abuse etc.
    Pells crimes are worse than anything that has been made public.
    I’ll leave it at that.

  32. PuffyTMD @ #37 Thursday, February 28th, 2019 – 8:30 am

    OK. Let’s, for half a minute, assume Pell is innocent but goes to prison convicted as a child molester.

    How ironic an outcome it would be for someone who covered up for paedophile priests!

    PuffyTMD @ #37 Thursday, February 28th, 2019 – 8:30 am

    OK. Let’s, for half a minute, assume Pell is innocent but goes to prison convicted as a child molester.

    How ironic an outcome it would be for someone who covered up for paedophile priests!

    Ironic or not. Such an outcome is a travesty undermines the rule of law.

  33. For me one of the big questions is how will The Church respond.

    Will they now pick up the phone to assist police forces and advise them what they know or suspect about people within their ranks.

    Or are we going to continue to see a dribble of cases as prosecutors slowly acquire the evidence needed to go to court.

  34. But Mr. Cohen’s most damaging revelations related to Mr. Trump’s personal involvement in a potential criminal conspiracy to violate campaign finance laws and cover up those offenses. This possible conspiracy was the subject of a comprehensive report issued by Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, the watchdog organization that I direct. In the report, we detail how Mr. Trump could be personally liable for unlawful campaign contributions in the form of payments involving Mr. Cohen to silence women who claimed that they had affairs with Mr. Trump. These potential violations are no small matter. Rather, they appear to have been committed for the purpose of suppressing negative stories about a central issue of the campaign: Mr. Trump’s attitudes toward and alleged mistreatment of women.

    Although Mr. Cohen’s credibility repeatedly came under attack by the president’s allies on the committee, there are many reasons to trust what Mr. Cohen said today. Many of his most important claims were backed by documents, and federal prosecutors in Manhattan have access to millions of records and at least 12 recordings of Mr. Trump that were seized in searches of Mr. Cohen’s office, home and hotel room last spring. After his prosecutions, Mr. Cohen knows well the costs of lying.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/27/opinion/michael-cohen.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

    Someone else said Cohen came over with more credibility than the Republicans in Congress. Quite remarkable given Cohen is a corrupt and dirty liar.

  35. I am watching the Cohen testimony on youtube msnbc. Fascinating. Cohen is an enthusiastic witness and he is dropping Trujmp in the doo doo.

  36. PeeBee@7:01am
    The Catholics who are donating their entire inheritance for Pell defense fee are doing it because they believe that their clergy especially Pell did not participate in child sex abuse.
    You may say what about the testimony in Child sex abuse RC by the victims. You may say what about the testimony of ‘Choir boys’ in Pell case. The people who are donating their inheritance would say that it is all ‘he said she said’.
    People believe what they want to believe.

  37. GG

    You know what the real travesty is?

    Pell will not be held accountable for many other serious misdeeds.

    He should be content that he has gotten off so lightly in the winter of his life.

    Sheesh

  38. Victoria @ #39 Thursday, February 28th, 2019 – 8:32 am

    GG

    Pell has been convicted. Yes, he can appeal. So frickin what.

    My intuition rarely fails me.

    Many years ago when seeing Pell, I knew he was a bad egg.

    It was confirmed to me way before anything public about Pells proclivities were known.

    Without going into too much detail, a family member is very good friends with someone whose own father who worked and lived in Ballarat during Pells time there (and is around the same age). This persons father is serving time for countless sexual abuse etc.
    Pells crimes are worse than anything that has been made public.
    I’ll leave it at that.

    vic,

    I find it hard to take this sort of post seriously.

    Unsubstantiated, rumour, scuttlebut, probable lies and intuition are not evidence.

  39. GG
    I am not talking about the law. A travesty of justice of course, but irony none-the-less.

    It bit like those hunters who got eaten by the lion. It is hard not to cheer the lion.

  40. Puffy:

    An amusing aspect of Cohen’s testimony is that he upstaged Trump’s meeting with Kim, leaving the toddler in chief wailing from Vietnam.

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