BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate again records little change this week. Also featured: updates on important preselections for the Liberal Party, who are persistently butting their heads against gender issues.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate, updated with this week’s results from Newspoll and Essential Research, remains unimpressed with much of the recent opinion poll commentary, maintaining a slow trend back to the Coalition that appears to go back to December. The movement since last week on two-party preferred is negligible, with a weak result for the Coalition cancelling out a somewhat stronger one from Essential Research, converting into a one-seat gain for the Coalition on the seat projection. Newspoll provides new numbers for the leadership ratings trends, which are all but unchanged. Full details on the link below.

Other news:

The Guardian reports uComms/ReachTEL polls for GetUp! conducted on Thursday found independent Zali Steggall leading Tony Abbott 57-43 in Warringah, while Labor’s Ali France led Peter Dutton 52-48 in Dickson. The poll also found majority support for the medical evacuations bill in both electorates.

• Following Julie Bishop’s retirement announcement, Andrew Burrell of The Australian reports Bishop’s hope of anointing her own successor in Curtin is likely to be scotched by her opponents, most notably Mathias Cormann. Bishop has reportedly been pushing for Erin Watson-Lynn, 33-year-old director of Asialink Diplomacy at the University of Melbourne. However, a highly fancied rival has emerged this week in Celia Hammond, who resigned on Monday as vice-chancellor at Notre Dame University. Hammond’s social conservatism is noted in a further report in The Australian today, relating a speech from 2013 in which she “railed against sex before marriage and contraception, while arguing against ‘militant feminism’”.

• A Liberal preselection vote on Saturday to choose Michael Keenan’s successor in the Perth northern suburbs seat of Stirling was won by Vince Connelly, risk management adviser at Woodside and former army officer. This was despite the wish of local party heavyweights Mathias Cormann and Peter Collier, along with Keenan himself, for the seat to go to a woman – specifically Joanne Quinn, legal counsel at Edith Cowan University. Quinn was in fact knocked out in the early rounds, together with Georgina Fraser, business development manager with a subsidiary of Kleenheat Gas, and Taryn Houghton, manager with a mental health support not-for-profit. Connelly prevailed in the final round over Michelle Sutherland, high school teacher, Bayswater councillor and wife of former state MP Michael Sutherland. His win out of an otherwise all-female field of five excited much commentary about the Liberal Party’s deficiencies in preselecting women, including my own analysis in Crikey on Monday.

• Sighs of relief could be heard from the Liberal hierarchy the following day when the preselection to replace Kelly O’Dwyer in Higgins was won by Katie Allen, paediatrician and unsuccessful candidate for Prahran at the state election in November. Allen prevailed in the final round with 158 votes to 116 for a male rival, Greg Hannan, former state party vice-president and factional moderate who ran against Michael Kroger for the presidency. Excluded after the penultimate round was Zoe McKenzie, “a non-executive director of the NBN board and former chief of staff to Abbott/Turnbull government trade minister Andrew Robb”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,270 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor”

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  1. Ven @ #44 Thursday, February 28th, 2019 – 8:37 am

    PeeBee@7:01am
    The Catholics who are donating their entire inheritance for Pell defense fee are doing it because they believe that their clergy especially Pell did not participate in child sex abuse.
    You may say what about the testimony in Child sex abuse RC by the victims. You may say what about the testimony of ‘Choir boys’ in Pell case. The people who are donating their inheritance would say that it is all ‘he said she said’.
    People believe what they want to believe.

    You just want to believe that is true, don’t you?

  2. Donation to the Catholic Church is steeped in the tradition of release from punishment hereafter and the purchase of forgiveness. It makes one speculate on any relationship between guilt and contribution.

  3. GG

    Take it anyway you want.

    I really don’t care if you want to believe it is scuttlebutt

    It is not unsubstantiated. This friends whole life has been a disaster due to the fathers conduct. The father did not abuse his own children, but countless other children that were entrusted to him.
    The siblings all left Ballarat and have never returned.

    And guess what, despite this man being in jail, his wife stuck by him cos she doesn’t believe it. Go figure. So the children are also estranged from the mother.

    Apparently Ballarat was ground zero for these Rock spiders.

    I have no skin in this game. Remember, I don’t know if anyone else who frequents this blog has sent all their children recently to be educated in the catholic system like I have.
    Despite the disgusting conduct of the church and its hierarchy, my kids got a great catholic education and are caring and sympathetic young adults.
    I have no regrets in this particular aspect.

  4. A couple of days ago a poster from Ballarat who knew Pell in the 1970s was glad he would rot in jail. The court case findings and the word of many victims and relatives tell us Pell is human scum, but many politicians, media and clergy refuse to accept it. The whole thing certainly tells us a lot about this country.
    The words of Catherine King, my local member, at the bottom of this article are worth noting.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/27/love-him-or-loathe-him-pells-always-been-a-son-of-ballarat

  5. GG

    I reckon it needed the RC to wake us all up. It woke me up. That was worth it. It needed the RC to give thousands of victims a voice. That was worth it. The RC directly resulted in hundreds of charges being laid and dozens of perps going to jail. That was worth it. It needed the RC to give the various institutions a proper frightener. It hastened reform of institutional practices. That was worth it. The response to the RC ensured that more victims gained more recompense. That was worth it.

    IMO the priority national question now is what to we do about child sex abuse in the home.

    This is not nearly as amenable, IMO. Far harder. Far more complex.

  6. Bolt now claims he is a victim -“look at me, look at me”.

    WHY I REFUSE TO BE SILENCED ON PELL: BOLT

    INTENSE HATRED I knew defending Cardinal George Pell could get me lynched. But I want to explain to the people now baying for my blood why I did it — and will continue to speak out against injustice, writes Andrew Bolt. (DT headline)

  7. Thanks BK for the Dawn Patrol and your various other comments.

    Today is my day for a couple of hours Day Release – mower petrol – Bunnings – soil and a couple of plants – hot bread shop to terrorise wonderful staff – view the passing parade at Waratah Village – and home again jiggety jig.

    A distraction – my wife loved reading (audio books) and on one orspishus (something like Orstrayun) occasion she was delighted to find the phrase – “Orsino and Delishus engaged in Jig a Jig to their hearts content” (or similar).

    Why have you kept this information (Jig a Jig) from me said she.

    “Mercy – mercy mi lady” I cried – knowing I had no defense.

    Kettle on again. ☮ ☕

    Wildfires have destroyed part of the British forest that inspired Winnie the Pooh’s famous playground, the Hundred Acre Wood.

    The Hundred Acre Wood “is the main setting of the Winnie the Pooh series. It is home to Winnie the Pooh, Tigger, Eeyore, Rabbit, Kanga, Roo, Owl, Piglet, and Gopher,” according to Disney Fandom.

    Referenced yesterday – time and tide, nature and the universe have no respect for our favourite stories.

    🧸😢🐻😢

  8. Boerwar @ #60 Thursday, February 28th, 2019 – 8:49 am

    GG

    I reckon it needed the RC to wake us all up. It woke me up. That was worth it. It needed the RC to give thousands of victims a voice. That was worth it. The RC directly resulted in hundreds of charges being laid and dozens of perps going to jail. That was worth it. It needed the RC to give the various institutions a proper frightener. It hastened reform of institutional practices. That was worth it. The response to the RC ensured that more victims gained more recompense. That was worth it.

    IMO the priority national question now is what to we do about child sex abuse in the home.

    This is not nearly as amenable, IMO. Far harder. Far more complex.

    I disagree. I saw very little value in years of victim porn played out in court to the amusement and entertainment of the general population. This is simply because it was basically the same same story of paedophiles taking advantage of children in similar situations.

    My view is the Commission should have identified the problem behaviour through a more selective process, make sure the perpetrators were identified and referred to the correct authority and making sure the problem does not re-occur through systemic change (which was already happening).

    As for compensation. My feeling is that the thieving lawyer enablers will scoop the pools. They always do!

    So, the victims will become victims again!

    I agree that tackling the on going problem of paedophilia in the family is very complex and almost impossible to address without substantial cultural change. That goes way beyond legal remedies.

  9. Anyone hear Abbott’s interview on 2GB yesterday arvo? I haven’t heard it but based ont eh quotes I’ve seen, it can’t help his campaign in Warringah, surely.

  10. BW is right to talk about the wider aspect of child abuse re the family. However, the predators in the various churches and other organisations were so dangerous because their positions allowed them to victimize dozens if not hundreds of children. I have heard that those who come forward are only a fraction of the victims.

  11. Greensborough Growler
    says:
    I disagree. I saw very little value in years of victim porn played out in court to the amusement and entertainment of the general population. This is simply because it was basically the same same story of paedophiles taking advantage of children in similar situations.
    __________________________________________
    WTF! Well we are all sorry you were so bored by it all. And what ‘amusement and entertainment’ are you talking about.

    Were you so similarly bored by the testimony on the Stolen Generation, seeing that it was the ‘same story’ over and over?

  12. “Really amazes me to see so many conservative commentators hazarding caution and seeing conspiracy re Pell.”

    Those who most loudly proclaim themselves to be the champions of law and order get very upset when it gets one of their own.

  13. Shellbell

    Thanks for the link (yesterday) to appeals procedures which I found to be useful, not being a legal person.

    Here is part of text of an article by Chris Merritt in today’s ‘The Australian’ on the grounds for appeal along with some commentary on which might hold water.

    ‘The grounds for appeal in George Pell’s case indicate his legal team is planning to attack the credibility of the evidence that was arrayed against him.

    By arguing the conviction was unreasonable, the legal team has opened the door to a debate about whether the jury’s decision can be supported by the evidence.’

    My comment on this is that it seemed to me that the defence’s attack on the credibility of the witness was that he thought he was telling the truth but that what he thought he was telling the truth about did not happen. It was a ‘fantasy’. It seems to me that this reverses the onus. It puts the Defence into a position of having to demonstrate that there was a fantasy.

    Merritt goes on to write:

    ‘….was it reasonable for the members of the jury to convict Pell on the evidence before them?

    This will require the Court of Appeal to consider all the evidence and come to its own view of whether it was open to the jury to be satisfied beyond reasonable doubt that Pell was guilty.

    Officially, this does not mean the appeal judges will be taking the place of the jury.

    But the High Court has almost neutered that principle by ruling that, in most cases, any doubt about a conviction that is experienced by appeal judges would be a doubt that should have been experienced by a jury.’

    This almost seems contradictory to me.

    Merritt goes on to write:

    ‘One argument that is likely to feature on appeal is the evidence — or lack thereof — explaining how Pell was able to engage in a sexual assault while wearing what could be described as a heavy, double-layered seamless cassock held in place with a belt.’

    It is interesting that Merritt has chosen this out of the ten ‘impossibles’ for his article. IMO it is possibly the easiest ‘impossible’ to destroy.

    It is not a ‘cassock’. It is a chasuble. As for ‘heavy’, priests routinely put them on and off without assistance. When resting on the shoulders, they can easily be lifted aside with one hand. Dress me up in that gear and I am happy to demonstrate how it could be done in order to free up an erection (but not with the erection, of course). It requires a bit of fumbling and organisation, but robed priests can urinate standing up. They hoist the chasuble to one side, and lift the underneath garment – the alb. The latter is very light. As for the cincture – it is easy to put on, to put of and to loosen. But it is not necessary to shift the cincture at all. It sits well above the penis.

    Merritt goes on to write:

    ‘We might not have heard the last about the inconsistent evidence of the complainant on that point, which was highlighted yesterday in this newspaper by Jesuit lawyer Frank Brennan.

    On that point, Pell’s lawyers are unlikely to overlook what the High Court said in 1994 when it struck down a jury’s guilty verdict as unreasonable in another sexual assault matter. In that case, known as M v R, the High Court determined that if the evidence contains discrepancies, displays inadequacies or otherwise lacks probative force an appeal court is bound to set aside a guilty verdict if it concludes there is a significant possibility an innocent person has been convicted.’

    This goes to the heart of the matter, IMO. The logic loop goes back up to the point made earlier by Merritt: ‘But the High Court has almost neutered that principle by ruling that, in most cases, any doubt about a conviction that is experienced by appeal judges would be a doubt that should have been experienced by a jury.’

  14. The long road to Queensland’s bill of rights.

    https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/queensland/queenslanders-human-rights-to-be-enshrined-in-law-20190227-p510k0.html

    It has taken 60 years, but human rights will finally be enshrined in law in Queensland.
    :::
    Country Party Premier Frank Nicklin introduced a bill in 1959, which lapsed with the 1960 election, while a parliamentary committee considered the issue in 1998.

    Former independent MP Peter Wellington called for a human rights act during the Newman government in the wake of anti-association bikie laws, and investigating a bill of rights was one of the things the Palaszczuk government agreed to with Mr Wellington in 2015 in exchange for his support on confidence motions.

    Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk announced cabinet had agreed to introduce a human rights bill in 2016.

  15. GG

    ‘ I saw very little value in years of victim porn played out in court to the amusement and entertainment of the general population.’

    The victims almost universally disagreed with you. They got their courage up. They did their thing. They had their day. For a brief instant in their lives the power balance that had wrecked their lives was reversed.

    IMO calling it ‘victim porn’ belittles all that.

  16. * Crisis support services can be reached 24 hours a day:

    Lifeline 13 11 14;

    Suicide Call Back Service 1300 659 467;

    Kids Helpline 1800 55 1800;

    MensLine Australia 1300 78 99 78;

    Beyond Blue 1300 22 4636

  17. I was aligning those who fought against Gillard and the RC with those calling Pell case into question, or like Abbott feeling for the hurt to the church with nary a mention of the suffered little children.

  18. It really shows, doesn’t it, how embedded Pell was/is with the conservative elites of this country who now show just how tribal they are.

  19. What Andrew Bolt forgets about being a ‘martyr’ is that you can’t be one while you’re still alive. We abolished capital punishment years ago: Pell is being crucified for what he did, just going to prison as he ought to. Pell is no ‘martyr’ and nor are his pathetic media supporters.

  20. Thanks BW

    Merritt and meaningful legal analysis do not normally go hand in hand so I think maybe someone else might have been involved in the authorship.

    Certainly better than Chris Murphy’s twitter feed

  21. phoenixRED @ #4 Thursday, February 28th, 2019 – 5:54 am

    Here are five felonies Trump committed — if Cohen is telling the truth – Max

    1. Conspiracy to defraud the United States
    2. Lying to the FBI and the Justice Department
    3. Suborning perjury
    4. Violating campaign finance laws.
    To these four offenses, one may add: 5. Bank, wire and tax fraud.

    Nope. There are at least 6 felonies:

    6. Obstruction of justice

    Grabbing women by the pussy without their consent should also be a felony. That would make seven.

    citizen @ #61 Thursday, February 28th, 2019 – 7:49 am

    INTENSE HATRED I knew defending Cardinal George Pell could get me lynched. But I want to explain to the people now baying for my blood why I did it — and will continue to speak out against injustice, writes Andrew Bolt. (DT headline)

    Love the audacious hyperbole employed by Bolt and others. People peacefully exercising their right to free speech to express strong disagreement with Bolt and strong disapproval of Pell are a “lynch mob” that’s “baying for blood”. These idiots (by which I mean “Bolt, and others”) really need to get over themselves.

    A hint for Mr. Bolt; if you can still express indignation about your treatment, you haven’t been lynched.

  22. I notice that my comment on GG was removed but I ask you which was more offensive, mine or his post that called the RC evidence ‘victim porn’ and which displayed such a blasé attitude towards the issue?

  23. BW regarding an earlier post of yours; Clearly the domestic context of most sexual abuse is the ‘main game’ if we are to reduce the net suffering of children, who remain damaged for life. Nonetheless big show trials and public discourse must surely help bring focus onto the issue, and help people identify and stand against paedophilia in all its presentations.
    If someone is able to unlock how you get inside the head of a potential or actual perpetrator and fix them, that would seem to be a magic key to reducing the harm. It is extremely hard, because any thoughts of harming children are rightly horrifying and deeply stigmatised. I knew a man who disclosed that he compulsively viewed child pornography, and went to psychologists etc to try to get it out of his head, but went to gaol for it. There seemed to be no way to get him out of the compulsive pattern.

  24. chris murphy
    @chrismurphys

    If you are trying to live with your Catholic religion by pretending to yourself that George Pell is an innocent victim don’t kid yourself. A young man subject to personal dissection for days in the witness box nailed him. Pell’s not on a cross. His chances on appeal are nil.

  25. Greensborough Growler @ #48 Thursday, February 28th, 2019 – 7:39 am

    Victoria @ #39 Thursday, February 28th, 2019 – 8:32 am

    GG

    Pell has been convicted. Yes, he can appeal. So frickin what.

    My intuition rarely fails me.

    Many years ago when seeing Pell, I knew he was a bad egg.

    It was confirmed to me way before anything public about Pells proclivities were known.

    Without going into too much detail, a family member is very good friends with someone whose own father who worked and lived in Ballarat during Pells time there (and is around the same age). This persons father is serving time for countless sexual abuse etc.
    Pells crimes are worse than anything that has been made public.
    I’ll leave it at that.

    vic,

    I find it hard to take this sort of post seriously.

    Unsubstantiated, rumour, scuttlebut, probable lies and intuition are not evidence.

    Yep, the prerequisites for religious faith itemised there. It’s a matter of what you choose to believe.

  26. Nath: “I notice that my comment on GG was removed but I ask you which was more offensive, mine or his post that called the RC evidence ‘victim porn’ and which displayed such a blasé attitude towards the issue?”

    I’m with you, Nath, I find GG’s ‘victim porn’ offensive, but clearly William doesn’t. Oh well, that’s God for you.

  27. Sohar @ #98 Thursday, February 28th, 2019 – 9:48 am

    Nath: “I notice that my comment on GG was removed but I ask you which was more offensive, mine or his post that called the RC evidence ‘victim porn’ and which displayed such a blasé attitude towards the issue?”

    I’m with you, Nath, I find GG’s ‘victim porn’ offensive, but clearly William doesn’t. Oh well, that’s God for you.

    🙂

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