Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

The Essential Research yo-yo moves back to the Coalition, with further questions providing modest evidence for a medevac effect.

The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll has Labor with a 52-48 lead, which can alternatively be seen as a dramatic cut in their 55-45 lead from last time, or a reversion to where things stood in the poll before, with the 55-45 result standing out as anomaly. The Coalition is on 38% of the primary vote, which is up four on last time but unchanged on the poll before; Labor is on 37%, down one from last time but up one on the time before; and the Greens and One Nation are both down a point, to 9% and 6% respectively.

Further questions suggest the medical evacuations bill suggest the issue leans negative for Labor: 30% say it will weaken Australia’s borders, 38% say it strikes the right balance and 15% think it doesn’t go far enough, but the negative view is taken by 57% of those who say it might change their vote, who account for around a quarter of the total. Respondents were also presented with trade-offs between social spending on the one hand, and negative gearing and tax concessions on the other – most expressed a preference for the former, although I have my doubts about the value of this exercise. Thirty-five per cent felt Labor would increase taxes compared with 22% who didn’t; 37% thought taxes would always be higher under Labor, with 23% disagreeing.

All this is related by The Guardian – the full report should be available later today. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1085.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,552 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Blog’s record regarding his ability to assess and present facts and evidence has been shown to be seriously wanting in the past.

    Why should today be any different? 😆

  2. It is not just Australia: https://www.irishcentral.com/news/irishvoice/surgeon-pedophile-michael-shine?utm_campaign=Best+of+IC+-+Feb+27+-+2019-02-27&utm_medium=Email&utm_source=Mailjet

    I note this piece is by the Staff of Irish Central. The anger is palpable (pun intended), and particularly directed at these who enabled the exploits of the surgeon.

    I guess my comment is that, understandable as the anger and disdain for this surgeon is, we also need to discuss how, as a society, we can stop this happening in the future. Punishment alone will not effect this.

  3. nath:

    From an earlier post today, I think you’re far more a stirrer than a troll, though you do tend to carry on re. Bill. Indeed, I think the word “troll” should be excised from the lexicon.

  4. ar d and m
    There are behaviours which somewhat predict later sociopaths (fire lighting, torturing animals and bed wetting). There was a vogue for intervening in kids with to triad and monitoring them which didn’t work and was abandoned.
    As neuroscience improves, we will be able to predict more accurately lots of diseases and behaviours. If you can prevent schizophrenia or antisocial personality disorder, society should at least have an argument about it.

  5. SKY NEWS……..after dark…….. Rupert’s willing pawns……. all sold their souls for 30 pieces of silver………… At least their us cousins have the honesty not to claim to be journalists.

  6. Victoria @ #1493 Wednesday, February 27th, 2019 – 7:03 pm

    A great piece by Rick Wilson

    Michael Cohen Is Trump’s Worst Nightmare: A Loser With Nothing to Lose
    The ‘fixer’ is a perfect exemplar of Trump’s world: corrupt and corrupting, venal and vicious, he is the true picture of the ‘best people’ with whom Trump surrounds himself.

    Rick Wilson
    02.26.19 10:24 PM ET

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/michael-cohen-is-trumps-worst-nightmare-a-loser-with-nothing-to-lose?ref=home

    Thanks Vic! Always worth a read.

  9. Tony Abbott called George Pell after it emerged cardinal was convicted of sexual abuse

    Former prime minister Tony Abbott spoke to George Pell soon after it emerged publicly that the cardinal had been convicted in December of sexually abusing choirboys.

    Abbott this afternoon told Sydney’s 2GB radio station that he “put a call into him (Pell)” yesterday.

    “Yes, I have spoken to George Pell,” he told presenter Ben Fordham.

    Abbott refused to provide any detail of the conversation with his “friend”.

    The Warringah MP, a Catholic, was evasive when asked if Pell was “a guilty man”.

    “Well, he’s been found guilty by a court of a horrible crime, an absolutely horrible crime,” Mr Abbott said.

    “It is going on appeal and let’s see what the appeal court ultimately decides.”

    Mr Abbott “absolutely accepted” that Pell’s convictions for sexually assaulting two teenage choir boys in St Patrick’s Cathedral in Melbourne in 1996 and 1997 was “a shocking result, a devastating result”.

    “But it is subject to appeal,” he added.

    “It’s devastating for all who believe in the Catholic Church and I’m also one of those.

    “This is a grim time, no doubt about that.

    “But I also have faith in our system of justice. Let’s see what the system of justice ultimately produces.

    “As the Prime Minister said yesterday, no one is above the law. And that’s right, no one should be above the law, but let’s wait and see what the law ultimately produces because that’s what we’ll know once things have gone through appeal.”

    Mr Abbott said he wasn’t a spokesman for Pell or the Catholic Church.

    “I don’t claim to have the last word in wisdom and insight on any of these issues,” he said.

    Abbott said comments made by Chief Justice Peter Kidd about Pell’s “callous and brazen” actions were inconsistent with the man he knew.

    “But as I said, this is something that will now go on appeal and then we will be able to come to what is a settled conclusion about the matter,” Mr Abbott said.

    “I can absolutely understand the horror that people feel about child sexual abuse.

    “I can absolutely understand the additional horror they feel when child sexual abuse has taken place in a context of a shocking breach of trust.”

    Mr Abbott said he “has to accept” the court’s position, “but it is going to appeal”, he added.

    Mr Abbott would not be drawn on whether Pell would remain his friend if the appeal was dismissed.

    “That’s a hypothetical, let’s see where we go,” he said.

    “The legal process is not yet finalised.”

  10. I cant believe the LNP expects Australians to believe their new found commitment to renewable energies. What a joke

    Anything achieved in the sector over the the 6 years was achieved despite the LNP. Being too corrupted by coal to help, they couldn’t even get out of the way

    You think voters will forget what and massively corrupt roadblock and set of cheap worthless coal whores you lot have been? Dream on.

    And water thieves, so utterly corrupt.

    Here’s the reality of your contribution to emissions reduction: your grandchildren will change their surnames to avoid any association with you.

    The best and first policy any voter needs to advance climate change policy in this country is to vote your local LNP member out. Its that simple.

    The only way is up.

  11. Pakistan have captured Wing Commander Abhinandan who was shot down flying a 35 year old mig 21 the oldest plane they have. No idea why he didn’t fly a more modern plane.

  13. One of the most humiliating aspects of being inducted to prison is the strip search, which includes a visual examination on one’s anus, vagina. To avoid same, one should not transgress.

  14. “flying a 35 year old mig 21 ”

    My understanding is that the IAF MIG21’s have had enough in the way of systems upgrades to be worthy of respect. I think the PAF actually still flies some Mirage’s that are ex-RAAF stock??

  15. I was never an admirer of Mr Pell……. he seemed too hardline to me, he seemed to lack the Christian charity you would expect from Christ’s representative. I hoped he was not guilty but let the legal process decide
    The royal commission showed there were lots of religious who acted in a depraved way. The role of the catholic church now is to ensure that only well adjusted and open hearted people are members of religious orders… if any further abuse occurs not cover up for such people or move them on to do more harm. look at allowing married priests and women priests. I never had any one do any harm to me whilst I attended catholic schools nor did I know of this happening……. Maybe I was just too immature as a young teenage male I remain a catholic and try to support social justice. I am sure there are better Catholics then me but I try. Life is indeed a balancing act

  18. People keep talking about India and Pakistan and WW3, but no one has explained how a regional conflict would draw in any other participants.

    With nuclear weapons on both sides how many do they need to drag in?

    After North Korea, Israel and the USA these are not countries you’d want to have anything like a nuke.

  19. Was anybody else disturbed by the strange lack of security and the chaos outside the courthouse. What were the Victoria police thinking to permit it? It reminded me of coming in from church on Sunday Nov. 24 1963, turning on the TV, tuning to NBC and watching “live” another poorly secured “perp walk.” Who knows what might have happened today if someone showed up with violent intent towards the Cardinal.

  22. While we don’t know the evidence adduced by one of the living complainants accusing Pell, often in these types of matters, certain aspects of the accused penis are pertinent. Does he, for example, have a big dick, were there distinguishing marks? Another piece of probative evidence is whether investigating authorities arranged a pretext call to him. For example: “Why did you make me suck your dick”? Often in these situations, an accused falls on his sword.

  24. mick Quinlivan @ #1515 Wednesday, February 27th, 2019 – 10:10 pm

    I was never an admirer of Mr Pell……. he seemed too hardline to me, he seemed to lack the Christian charity you would expect from Christ’s representative. I hoped he was not guilty but let the legal process decide
    The royal commission showed there were lots of religious who acted in a depraved way. The role of the catholic church now is to ensure that only well adjusted and open hearted people are members of religious orders… if any further abuse occurs not cover up for such people or move them on to do more harm. look at allowing married priests and women priests. I never had any one do any harm to me whilst I attended catholic schools nor did I know of this happening……. Maybe I was just too immature as a young teenage male I remain a catholic and try to support social justice. I am sure there are better Catholics then me but I try. Life is indeed a balancing act

    Mick,
    Pell has let down people like you, who work at the pointy end supporting social justice. I hope you and people like know we appreciate your work and dedication.

  26. mick Quinlivan @ #1515 Wednesday, February 27th, 2019 – 10:10 pm

    I was never an admirer of Mr Pell……. he seemed too hardline to me, he seemed to lack the Christian charity you would expect from Christ’s representative. I hoped he was not guilty but let the legal process decide
    The royal commission showed there were lots of religious who acted in a depraved way. The role of the catholic church now is to ensure that only well adjusted and open hearted people are members of religious orders… if any further abuse occurs not cover up for such people or move them on to do more harm. look at allowing married priests and women priests. I never had any one do any harm to me whilst I attended catholic schools nor did I know of this happening……. Maybe I was just too immature as a young teenage male I remain a catholic and try to support social justice. I am sure there are better Catholics then me but I try. Life is indeed a balancing act

    Religious orders can give people who want to serve humanity the chance to do so, without the burden of struggling to make a living, consumerism and isolation.
    It is not for all or many. I understand the philosophy that can make such a life attractive, for many in the religions. Only, as you say, people of good heart and character should be allowed to pursue the life of the religious or the priesthood given they will be dealing with people at their most vulnerable.

    Whether you are a good Catholic or not, I sense you are a good human being.
    it is enough for me.

  34. Mavis Davis says:
    Wednesday, February 27, 2019 at 10:23 pm
    nath:

    From an earlier post today, I think you’re far more a stirrer than a troll, though you do tend to carry on re. Bill. Indeed, I think the word “troll” should be excised from the lexicon.
    ————————————-
    I agree, Nath tries to be a stirrer but lack the ability and comes across as an incompetent troll. I wish we could excise the word troll but first we need to educate the trolls to become the wise and valued commentators they want to be and we would like them to be.

  35. But Diogenes, where’s her experience?

    TV – nup!
    Radio – nup!
    Online – nup!

    And what is it with this Government and independent panel recommendations?

    $175k and once again they pick someone not on the list.

  36. Mavis, it is always up to the prosecution to prove their case. The accused does not have to prove anything, nor does he have to help the prosecution prove anything against him.

    If the prosecution can’t prove their case beyond reasonable doubt, the accused is entitled to an acquittal.

    The lawyer is under one constraint in deciding to call the accused to give evidence and that is that he cannot call the accused to give false testimony if the lawyer knows the accused committed the crime and knows that his testimony will be false.

    This has to be actual knowledge, not just suspicion or antipathy to the accused or to the alleged crime, or to “the vibe”.

    In spite of that, even though the accused may be as guilty as sin, the prosecution still have to prove this is so, and the defense does not have to help them.

    Even witnesses of truth can sometimes make very bad witnesses. They can come across as looking shifty by their appearance or demeanour, they can be susceptible to being confused, and contradict themselves under cross examination, they can be dull or stupid and not be able to pick up on nuances or avoid obvious traps, they can be frightened of the consequences of their evidence on other parties and refuse to answer, they can become belligerent, argumentative and angry, may be bombastic or arrogant; in short there are a myriad of reasons why in a particular case the lawyer may advise against the accused giving evidence.

    One may suspect why the accused is not called to give evidence, but it is wrong for a jury to do so, and indeed in his or her directions the Judge will so inform them.

    The defense lawyer should not be criticised without full knowledge of the reasons for the decision, and in the end result the accused has the right to make the decision, with or without his lawyer’s advice.

    The only exception is if the lawyer knows he intends to lie, in which case every ethical lawyer will immediately cease to act.

    Anyway, we are all entitled to our views.

  38. Just had a quick look at Bolt’s blog.

    He’s obviously been given the word, and is slowly retreating from his previous dogmatic nonsense.

  39. “https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/02/liquid-metal-catalyst-turns-carbon-dioxide-coal

    Interesting bit of chemistry”

    Hmmmmm…wonder if you could make graphene out of it??

  40. Mavis @ 11.50

    No, Richter did not make a mistake.


    “An accused person is never required to prove his innocence: his silence can never displace the onus that is on the prosecution to prove his guilt beyond reasonable doubt. A failure to offer an explanation does not of itself prove anything. Nor does it, in any strict sense, corroborate other evidence. But the failure of an accused person to contradict on oath evidence that to his knowledge must be true or untrue can logically be regarded as increasing the probability that it is true. That is to say a failure to deny or explain may make evidence more convincing, but it does not supply its deficiencies. A direction by the judge on such matters … might no doubt be helpful to the accused in some cases.”
    (Windeyer J in Bridge v The Queen)

    In fact historically in our system the accused was not allowed to give evidence. The right of the accused to give evidence (if they wanted to) was legislated in NSW in 1891.

    Regarding Pell, his arrogant, abrasive, unempathic manner would in itself be risky to present to the jury, regardless of what he might have said.

    Mostly the accused does not take the stand.

    Your view that he should have taken the stand has been widely canvassed in social media in the last 2 days by people with not much knowledge of the process.

  42. Re Abhinandan: I’m not entirely sure what’s going on there – was Abhinandan attempting to defect? Why else would he fly an obsolete aircraft (even the Indian variant of the MiG-21 is obsolete; you can only do so much with a 63-year-old baseline design, after all!) into Pakistani airspace?

  43. Well said Bert a few pages over.

    Pell is guilty. A properly conducted court has found him to be a molester of children. There are no ifs and buts. That is the fact.

    Does anyone on here dispute that?

  45. Melissa Davey
    9h9 hours ago
    …Notices have been placed in Catholic newspapers and on church websites for MONTHS with details of a Pell trial fund for people to donate to. Catholics have emailed me saying they’re donating entire inheritances to Pell’s legal fees.

  46. There’s far too much magical thinking in big producer countries such as Australia about the long-term future of coal exports. The internal political and financial dynamics of coal-consuming countries such as India are shifting decisively away from imports. If any jobs are to be preserved in coal mining, we in India are naturally going to try to keep ours. And we certainly aren’t going to pay for anything other than equipping existing plants with better emissions-control technology. (Banks are reluctant to lend even for that, as it happens.)

    Australia, which exports about 85 percent of its black coal output, should try to be realistic. One problem, as we know from the 2016 U.S. presidential election, is that coal mining makes for powerful politics as a symbol of a “strong,” job-producing economy. One commentator wrote in The Australian last week that “coal is essential to Australia’s standard of living.” While the opposition Labor party is mounting a strong challenge to the incumbent coalition government, coal-mining marginal constituencies are its Achilles heel.

    Yet, the best thing that can be done for the coal-export industry and all those who depend on it is to prepare for its end. Because that is, one way or another, looking inevitable.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-02-25/australia-coal-exports-don-t-have-much-of-a-future

  48. Tony Abbott’s comments as reported by Steve Davis at 10.27 are moderate and balanced.

    There are plenty of people sceptical about this conviction and there is further legal process to be followed before the matter is finalised.

    As has been noted here and elsewhere there are many precedents for convictions to be over turned.

    So, people should chill out.

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