Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

The Essential Research yo-yo moves back to the Coalition, with further questions providing modest evidence for a medevac effect.

The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll has Labor with a 52-48 lead, which can alternatively be seen as a dramatic cut in their 55-45 lead from last time, or a reversion to where things stood in the poll before, with the 55-45 result standing out as anomaly. The Coalition is on 38% of the primary vote, which is up four on last time but unchanged on the poll before; Labor is on 37%, down one from last time but up one on the time before; and the Greens and One Nation are both down a point, to 9% and 6% respectively.

Further questions suggest the medical evacuations bill suggest the issue leans negative for Labor: 30% say it will weaken Australia’s borders, 38% say it strikes the right balance and 15% think it doesn’t go far enough, but the negative view is taken by 57% of those who say it might change their vote, who account for around a quarter of the total. Respondents were also presented with trade-offs between social spending on the one hand, and negative gearing and tax concessions on the other – most expressed a preference for the former, although I have my doubts about the value of this exercise. Thirty-five per cent felt Labor would increase taxes compared with 22% who didn’t; 37% thought taxes would always be higher under Labor, with 23% disagreeing.

All this is related by The Guardian – the full report should be available later today. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1085.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,552 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. C@tmomma @ #1339 Wednesday, February 27th, 2019 – 5:33 pm

    Have I missed anything? 🙂

    Not really. The heady cocktail mix of religion, high-priests and paedophilia has everyone running around like chooks with their heads cut off, spewing their opinions and criticisms on each other, and Farmer William Bowe trying to calm the farm. Also, apparently Trump is going to be called a liar, cheat and thief by his former lawyer and confessed liar, cheat and thief. And William’s projection has moved one seat from ALP to LNP. Usual day at the PB coal face really.

  2. Don’t know if Pell wins on appeal… but this from today’s sentencing hearing takes the cake…

    The defence lawyer then submitted the only reason the boys were in the sacristy was because they were being naughty.

    But Judge Kidd replied: ‘‘I am not attracted to that submission.’’

    Not sure which side Richter is on,he’s behaving as if an appeal win is a certainty

  3. Bert
    says:
    Wednesday, February 27, 2019 at 5:32 pm
    For those that think it can’t happen due to people coming and going, the bastard that got at me did it in room full of other kids.
    ____________________
    I’m very sorry this happened Bert. My fond hope is that there is a DNA based explanation for these monsters and that one day, it can be eradicated, or edited out, from the human species.

  4. Barney in Tra Vinh
    says:
    Wednesday, February 27, 2019 at 5:51 pm
    WOW! Indeed.
    And if the trend is your friend, in 32 weeks it should be 50-50.
    _________________________
    So a November HoR election then?

  5. I like the conclusion to this

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/27/suppression-orders-arent-perfect-but-journalistic-hubris-wont-fix-the-problem

    “Returning to the topic of journalistic hubris, some commentators – well, I am talking about Andrew Bolt – have declared that Pell is innocent and the victim of a witch-hunt. Bolt was not in court. Nor was I. Neither of us have had the opportunity to hear and weigh all the evidence. That was the job of the jury. What process, exactly, is Bolt suggesting should have been followed?
    This is how we decide guilt and innocence in our community. That is why the protection of the administration of justice is so important – because for all its imperfections it is the best we’ve got.
    Some journalists should get over themselves and devote a bit more effort to thinking these things through clearly.”

  6. nath
    ” My fond hope is that there is a DNA based explanation for these monsters and that one day, it can be eradicated, or edited out, from the human species.”
    That sounds like eugenics.

  7. nath @ #1355 Wednesday, February 27th, 2019 – 5:49 pm

    Bert
    says:
    Wednesday, February 27, 2019 at 5:32 pm
    For those that think it can’t happen due to people coming and going, the bastard that got at me did it in room full of other kids.
    ____________________
    I’m very sorry this happened Bert. My fond hope is that there is a DNA based explanation for these monsters and that one day, it can be eradicated, or edited out, from the human species.

    A cult that has acted as it is above the law.

    It should be outlawed.

  8. Diogenes
    says:
    Wednesday, February 27, 2019 at 5:54 pm
    nath
    ” My fond hope is that there is a DNA based explanation for these monsters and that one day, it can be eradicated, or edited out, from the human species.”
    That sounds like eugenics.
    _____________________
    Yes I suppose it does. In this case I’ll make an exception to my opposition to it.

  9. That “vanilla penetration” comment is so astonishingly tin-eared it blows my mind. What attorney in their right mind could think saying something like that would be beneficial to their client?

  10. When I commenced school I was sent to the local Catholic convent school, Our Lady of Fatima, Palmyra Western Australia.

    A child from a family known to my parents was in the same class.

    One day sixpence went missing, that child was accused of taking it, and was hauled before the whole class by the nun in charge. He was humiliated before his peers, accused of being a thief, and was told he would be going to hell because of this wicked, sinful act.

    He was all of five years of age.

    This left an enormous impression on me.

    When I went home that evening I was still upset, which my mother sensed, and she asked me what was wrong. In tears, I told her what had happened.

    She called upon the child’s parents (no telephone for us in those days), explained what I had told her, and suggested that they may wish to make inquiries from the school.

    The little boy was asked about it by his parents after my mother left, but, traumatised, he burst into tears and refused to say anything about it.

    Naturally, the child’s father came to the school to find out what had occurred.

    The nun denied it all. He was informed that it never happened and that I was a notorious liar.
    This occurred in the class room, and I was brought to the nun’s desk and ordered to apologise for telling a horrible lie.

    This in front of the same class that had heard the whole sorry event unfurl a day or to before, and in front of his own son!

    After he left (still upset and suspicious) I was berated by her for telling tales on the teacher.

    I was only five.

    A small insignificant incident you may say, For me, it scarred me for years. The injustice of it all still affects me now, nearly 65 years later.

    I was removed from that school by my parents very shortly afterwards.

    All it takes is one bastard.

    .

  11. “Pakistan ‘shoots down two Indian jets’
    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-47383634

    If true, not good. But, not going to start WWIII either. The Indians and Pakistanis have been here before with quite serious biffo, aircraft, tanks being destroyed, and climbed back down. Hopefully things will stay contained and other countries will STFU and let them deal with this.

  12. “Tony Abbott says George Pell verdict is ‘devastating’ for cardinal’s friends”

    fine and dandy….but who gives a shit how you feel Tony??

  13. poroti @ #1346 Wednesday, February 27th, 2019 – 5:57 pm

    KayJay

    Some bad news you’ll have to break to Brown bear.
    .
    “fires tore through Ashdown Forest – best known as the inspiration for A. A. Milne’s children’s classic Winnie the Pooh – and North Wales.”
    https://www.theweek.co.uk/99874/firefighters-battle-apocalyptic-blaze-in-yorkshire

    Thanks for the info. I had the latest great grandchild to visit on Sunday and am slowly recovering. He did manage to find a missing jigsaw puzzle part (which I hadn’t missed) -he gave ClaraBelle cow a good thrashing and hugged and tried to remove decorations from Bobo Bear.
    Fortunately he didn’t make it to my bedroom where the said Brown Bear resides.
    He’s 2.5 years old and such an angel while asleep. I love him and hope to keep seeing him in coming years.

    Over. 😲

    .

  14. nath
    It’s definitely not as simple as a gene, or many genes. Twin studies shows paedophilia is only about 1/6th genetic, the rest environment or epigenetic.

  15. nath
    ” My fond hope is that there is a DNA based explanation for these monsters and that one day, it can be eradicated, or edited out, from the human species.”

    I suspect it has more to do with upbringing and character than anything in the DNA. And personal choices. A lot of abusers were themselves abused. But most victims would never dream of committing the same crime on another person.

    We need to fight bad ideas, not identify “bad people”. Though I suspect some by Pell’s age are incapable of change.

  16. Diogenes says:
    Wednesday, February 27, 2019 at 6:06 pm

    nath
    It’s definitely not as simple as a gene, or many genes. Twin studies shows paedophilia is only about 1/6th genetic, the rest environment or epigenetic.
    __________________________
    Oh really, thanks, well there goes that theory.

  17. The fire, which has been described as “apocalyptic” covers about 1.5 sq km of land near Marsden.

    150 hectares, a mere camp fire compared to here.

  18. Scott, allowances have been made for redistributions. This is why the seat totals add up to 151, as will be the case after the election, rather than 150, which is the number there are right now.

  19. The Indians and Pakistanis have been here before with quite serious biffo, aircraft, tanks being destroyed, and climbed back down.

    You could be forgiven for thinking it well stage managed.

  20. Diogenes says:
    Wednesday, February 27, 2019 at 6:13 pm

    Risk factors for paedophilia are short left-handers with low IQ and a history of childhood head injuries who were abused.
    _____________________
    Are you serious?

  21. Davidwh: “It’s the folks that receive modest refunds that I feel are being harshly treated by the policy”

    Some people propose ‘grand-fathering’ for such people (I am not suggesting that you do).

    What interests me instead is that whilst ‘grand-fathering’ is commonly proposed in relation to tax law changes that can affect investors’ income I can’t recall any similar suggestion being made when Sunday penalty rates were removed with the consequent adverse effect on the income of some of the lowest paid workers in the nation.

    It seems not all Grandfathers are of equal importance!

  22. mikehilliard

    Yes it is all relative. The “heat wave’.

    He said:”There’s been a prolonged abnormally warm spell and we’ve also had an exceptionally dry start to 2019……… “These kind of temperatures – 18C or 19C – are what you would normally see in early June.

  23. Another Liberal scandal today. Something to do with Tim Wilson taxpayers funds and an advertising campaign spend to come.

    Also Queensland now has a Bill of Rights. 🙂

  24. Who is this Renee bozo on Sky News?

    Franking credits is biting? Bull shit. Bowen has been sloppy? WTF!

    Morrison improving his climate credentials? Say what!

  25. nath
    Absolutely true. All of those are confirmed risk factors. I should have included being male.
    You can also put someone in a functional MRI scanner and show them pictures and get a fairly good idea if the person is a paedophile.

  26. Diogenes says:
    Wednesday, February 27, 2019 at 6:22 pm

    nath
    Absolutely true. All of those are confirmed risk factors. I should have included being male.
    You can also put someone in a functional MRI scanner and show them pictures and get a fairly good idea if the person is a paedophile.
    ___________________
    OK. For a minute I thought you were making a joke about a left handed batsman. I’m not big on cricket. Well that is fascinating, I wonder why shortness is an issue, under development?? Anyway, seems like some are doing good research on it.

  27. India and Pakistan is not to go full blown conflict straight off. The risk is it escalates from shooting at each others planes to bombing airfields. Then the weaker side starts using tactical nuclear weapons to take out an airbase or barracks, then the other side to responds in kind. And the strategic forces are then called on.

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