The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll has Labor with a 52-48 lead, which can alternatively be seen as a dramatic cut in their 55-45 lead from last time, or a reversion to where things stood in the poll before, with the 55-45 result standing out as anomaly. The Coalition is on 38% of the primary vote, which is up four on last time but unchanged on the poll before; Labor is on 37%, down one from last time but up one on the time before; and the Greens and One Nation are both down a point, to 9% and 6% respectively.
Further questions suggest the medical evacuations bill suggest the issue leans negative for Labor: 30% say it will weaken Australia’s borders, 38% say it strikes the right balance and 15% think it doesn’t go far enough, but the negative view is taken by 57% of those who say it might change their vote, who account for around a quarter of the total. Respondents were also presented with trade-offs between social spending on the one hand, and negative gearing and tax concessions on the other – most expressed a preference for the former, although I have my doubts about the value of this exercise. Thirty-five per cent felt Labor would increase taxes compared with 22% who didn’t; 37% thought taxes would always be higher under Labor, with 23% disagreeing.
All this is related by The Guardian – the full report should be available later today. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1085.
Burgey
Do you have any intelligence on who facilitated Walker’s engagement?
Shellbell
Do you think the request for an appeal will be granted?
Had my annual review with my financial planner today.
My modest superannuation needs a tweak and we talked about investments generally, the past year in markets and what might have been factors in the late 2018 plunge and what might happen next, given the Trump is a loose cannon, China is playing silly buggers and Brexit is an unresolved mess.
At no stage was there any suggestion that the election of a Shorten Labor government was anything to be concerned about. In fact domestic politics did not get a mention.
So much for the fear and smear and doom and gloom merchants.
Late Riser
1) Growing up Catholic, by the time I was 18, I had heard a lot of stories that I discounted, in an “of course that could not happen.” We were told, but somehow convinced ourselves it was not happening.
2) By the time I was 30, I had credible evidence that “it was happening”, and to more than a few of my friends.
3) In my career as a female in a male dominated industry, I quickly discovered that “the senior guy from University who is fascinated by your last paper at the conference at the conference dinner”, is not just being friendly. This came as a shock to me, as the guys I came across in high school an undergrad were lovely, and good friends.
3) I was brazenly tongue-kissed by a senior scientist in front of a lot of other senior scientists – some of whom were my friends :(. I was so taken by surprise I did nothing, and just let it happen. I suspect the others were also shocked, and tried to pretend it did not happen. I spent the rest of the conference in complete shame, and it was only after my own PhD students started experiencing the same things that I realise how endemic it was (it was not just my personality that meant it happened to me), and I have fought it hard ever since. Also, later, worse things happened to both me and my students.
4) It is always hard to know who is telling the truth in these situations, without eye witnesses, but I can tell you how awful that “Victim freeze” is when something happens. And how other people will pretend they saw nothing. I cannot imagine how this would have affected me if I had been an adolescent.
5) Many sad stories, and very hard for the victims to speak out.
6) Speaking out us essential to stop it happening again, but you need a critical mass of people to be believed, and even then you are likely to destroy your career.
7) It does not mean that the Catholic Church / other churches / science is intrinsically bad, but we need to take notice, and try and make sure that victims can speak out and get a fair hearing.
8) You can tell I just submitted my DP20 today – it is not normal to enumerate your points on a blog.
BW
Here is the very elaborate process set out step by step.
I have no idea what judges do on the leave applications but an appeal on a historical sexual assault matter with these facts sounds like one which would be given leave
https://www.supremecourt.vic.gov.au/sites/default/files/assets/2017/09/0e/1eb1281f8/ca1criminalappeals.pdf
Scott says:
Wednesday, February 27, 2019 at 6:14 pm
Error in bludger tracker%
libs/nats currently hold 75 seats, unless my maths is wrong , losing 20 seats does not equal 56 it would equal 55.
————
William Bowe says:
Wednesday, February 27, 2019 at 6:16 pm
Scott, allowances have been made for redistributions. This is why the seat totals add up to 151, as will be the case after the election, rather than 150, which is the number there are right now.
———–
SEATS CHANGE
COALITION 56 -20
LABOR 89 +20
Others 6 +1
————–
Scott – The Coalition won 76 seats in 2016 and lost 2
since, so they currently hold 74 seats, not 75.
William’s -20 for the Coalition must include the post 2016 election losses of Wentworth (Others +1) and Chisolm but Chisolm shifts to the Labor + 20 Column.
I think William must be including the Victorian redistribution which shifted Dunkley to the ALP side (nominally), the abolition of Port Adelaide in South Australia, and the two seats of Fraser in Victoria and Bean in the ACT (+ 2 =71).
So, if Labor goes into the election nominally with 71 seats they would have to “gain” five seats to win Government {76} and 18 seats to get to Williams 89.
To get there I have to assume Chisolm is one of those 18 “gains” for Labor after the 2019 election otherwise it is not accounted for in the Others Column.
The Coalition in effect goes into the election with 73 seats and needs to gain 3 net to make me ill again
.
The depravity which occurred at the boys’ homes/reform schools is beyond belief.
Douglas and Milko, Your courage is telling. I have no such story. Thank you.
My partner who’s brother is in India working with NBN contractors (outsourced from Aus) has been informed to get out ASAP by the parent company in Melbourne via DFAT due to escalating tensions with Pakistan.
Company cannot guarantee safety with staff wishing to leave now
Late riser
The fMRI only tells you if someone has a predisposition to paedophilia (which is not a crime by itself). It’s like fMRIs which show you who has sociopathic tendencies.
I always thought that WW3 would be started with a conflict between India and Pakistan
It may well be on the cards now
Why the surprise at the Divisive Dwarf?
The “Liberal Party” of today is in his image – hence Malcolm Fraser saying the Liberal Party is no longer the Liberal Party”, how many years ago
Not only are there very few females (and then they are the Cash and Mirabella types so obnoxious in the extreme) there are also no Chaney’s, McPhee’s, Georgiou’s et al, reasons you could once vote Liberal
The Nation is still attempting to recover from the Divisive Dwarf – both in respect to its character and its being
That Howard, who continues to control the Liberal Party in his image, supports Pell as he has and for the reasons he cites is testament to the Liberal Party actively protecting Pell in regards these matters including by opposing the RC on child abuse as they did
The Liberal Party of today is a collective of grey haired old men of privilege, associating in their elite clubs, who can pay for whatever they want – and take whatever they want including contrary to the laws of the land
Think Alexander Downer and his introduction to the Clubs of the privileged in Adelaide – by his own descriptions
sonar @ #1446 Wednesday, February 27th, 2019 – 8:15 pm
Going on their behaviour over the last 5 years I think they have learned their lesson. 🙂
What does Michael Cohen know? A lot.
His full opening statement of 20 pages
https://int.nyt.com/data/documenthelper/636-michael-cohens-congressional-t/3a1530b333230e775df5/optimized/full.pdf?smid=nytcore-ios-share#page=1
The Guardian..
The former prime minister John Howard has described Cardinal George Pell as “a person of both high intelligence and exemplary character” and says that his conviction on child sexual abuse charges doesn’t “alter my opinion of the Cardinal” in a character reference.
Why would Howard not qualify his support based on outcome of an appeal, as it stands he is guilty & Howard is denying the possibility of guilt.
Culture wars continue
C@tmomma
says:
I can only hope they have learned a hard lesson. Disunity is death.
Going on their behaviour over the last 5 years I think they have learned their lesson.
_____________________________
Yes I think they have too. Shorten is dead against leadership destabilisation now. 🙂
Late Riser
Until, I was 30, I had no such story either. That is probably why I am so outraged. I knew a different world until I got serious about my career.
It is a small proportion of (overly privileged?) people that commit these offences, and you could make an argument that they are sociopaths / have narcissistic personality disorder – 5% of the population, but 20% of both the jail population and CEOs, Leaders of research, and Captains of Industry have this personality type.
I note that my Aunt who is a GP has had no problems, but female friends (and relatives) who specialise cannot say the same thing.
Diogenes @ #1456 Wednesday, February 27th, 2019 – 7:52 pm
Thank you, and sorry that I was a bit abrupt with my question. I expect most of us have predispositions of one kind or another. Where it takes me though is how much of any predisposition is learned, and can be unlearned. We have a bunch of what I consider fetishes in our culture.
Dio
Very interesting. Minority Report territory, but also, given what we now know about neuro- plasticity (from my enthusiastic amateur perspective), perhaps behaviour modification is possible, simply by improving the social and professional environment in which these people develop?
Honestly, with all due respect to his position as a former Prime Minister of the country, I don’t think John Howard’s character reference for George Pell will carry much weight with the judge.
All sorts of bullying is endemic in academia. The one positive thing of recent times however is that it is rarely directed at undergraduate students. Not only are there much better established pathways to submit grievances, the student evaluation of teaching surveys can give a very accurate representation of what goes on in lecture halls and tutorial rooms. An academic with consistently poor feedback will have questions to answer and now all attempt to get out of the danger zone in these evaluations. A good thing. The bullying of post-graduate students is however, another thing entirely.
Douglas and Milko @ #1469 Wednesday, February 27th, 2019 – 8:12 pm
I oppose treating people differently based solely upon what we think they may be predisposed to do. Until they actually do or attempt to do something for real, they haven’t done anything wrong and don’t deserve punishment/”special” treatment.
Nath
I think you are mostly correct. Although – true story – only 4 years ago a female confided that, in another faculty, she was offered a higher mark for a blow job. She declined and changed majors.
nath @ #1344 Wednesday, February 27th, 2019 – 9:05 pm
I was actually talking about everyone in the FPLP having their shoulders to the wheel and having had the previous disunity and destabilisation seared into their brains but we all have our different perspectives. 🙂
Douglas and Milko
says:
I think you are mostly correct. Although – true story – only 4 years ago a female confided that, in another faculty, she was offered a higher mark for a blow job. She declined and changed majors.
______________________
Good grief. Poor thing. Makes my blood boil hearing that.
C@tmomma says:
Wednesday, February 27, 2019 at 7:57 pm
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=JUONdYMPbXs
The dysfunctional government loses one 77 year old supporter of its ideals to jail
And appoints another 77 year old in his stead
Progressive mob, hey?
Must be something about being 77 – and getting hand outs from government to allow you to live beyond your means
ar
Apologies, clarifier. I actually meant that we should set up environments where sociopathic tendencies are not rewarded, and where we encourage all people to develop more positive modes of pursuing their careers and interacting with others. Definitely no need to even ask if someone is a sociopath.
My son, who works in finance, confided in me that he was worried he may be a sociopath, because sometimes he tried to nudge the team in a particular direction, without explicitly saying so.
My answer was, if you are even worried that you may be a sociopath, then you are definitely not. The one thing that strikes me about sociopaths I have worked with, is how they can bully everyone, but clearly believe that they are the victim of something.
As I said too many ribbons on the church fence; too many effected; to small a community. It’s no longer hushed tones at BBQ’s.
A lynch mob would have strung him up; what we are seeing here is the pen used to relieve pent up anger, very different to a lynch mob.
… Kidd made his own exit, his robes gathered around him and a look like death on his face….
… The lawyer Father Frank Bennan’s defence of the cardinal in the Australian is being distributed to parents with kids at Catholic schools…..
By then Pell will be in one of the prisons where Victoria houses paedophiles. He will know so many of the faces, so many priests and brothers who have done what he continues to deny having done himself. What reunions there will be.
For the first time since they shared the St Alipius presbytery at Ballarat in the 1970s, George Pell will be back under the same roof as the worst of the worst. He and Gerald Ridsdale will have so much to catch up on.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/27/take-him-away-please-george-pell-had-not-dressed-for-prison-but-thats-where-he-went
“defence of the cardinal in the Australian is being distributed to parents with kids at Catholic schools”. Will that be believed or the court, and the stories told in hushed tones. Will “that could not be true” still wash? Doubt it!
Given the damage done to a generation by these people; defence is a disgrace. The victims are not to be believed; that is how we got to where we are; that is what will bring the Catholic church a lot of pain.
Douglas and Milko
Wednesday, February 27th, 2019 – 9:07 pm
Comment #1351
I have found your (and others) comments tonight extremely interesting.
From my varied activities during my (almost) 80 years – I believe that most of the offenders being described are of the “I do what I do because I can” variety – which in my simply world describes socio/psychopaths.
Sadly (maybe not) the Ceaușescu/ Mussolini treatment is frowned upon.
Maybe a little severe.
Best regards to the dogs.
Goodnight all. 🕊💤
Unless the reference deals in terms with the conviction (or plea of guilt), it can never count.
C@t “Honestly, with all due respect to his position as a former Prime Minister of the country, I don’t think John Howard’s character reference for George Pell will carry much weight with the judge.”
I read John Howard’s reference linked here earlier. If Pell had blown over the limit on the breathalyser, or maybe was caught with his fingers in the till to feed a gambling habit, it might carry some weight, but for this?
Herald Sun
February 26, 2019 4:02pm
“Cardinal George Pell has been falsely convicted of sexual abusing two boys in their early teens. That’s my opinion, based on the overwhelming evidence. And my opinion is also based in part on how many times Pell has been accused of crimes and sins he clearly did not do. But at last some of the truckload of mud thrown at him has stuck. It adds up to this: Pell, Australia’s most senior Catholic, has been made to pay for the sins of his church and a media campaign of vilification. He is a scapegoat, not a child abuser. In my opinion”
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/blogs/andrew-bolt/pell-verdict-why-i-dont-accept-it/news-story/42e1015feed9ad3d05dba50a5f664b57?from=htc_rss
This is the most disgusting head line grabbing journalist in the country- there is absolutely no level of depravity he will go to to get a headline, sell a newspaper, kiss Murdoch’s butt or spruik hate speech under the guise of ‘freedom of speech’. His attempt to cash in on child abuse just shows how repulsive and inhuman this man is. I hope he rots in hell with Pell, Howard and their mates who think molesting a child is “vanilla penetration”. As ONE of Pell’s victims this makes me want to puke.
“China is playing silly buggars”
It is Trump who has entered into a Trade War with China – China has merely responded in kind
And there will only be one winner – China, the trading Nation
The concerns have been detailed by Lowe, the RBA Governor and referred to in an article by Gittens
Trump remains a threat to a sustainable and respectful world order
Brexit will be of no consequence except to Great Britain (assuming Brexit proceeds which it should not)
Would have thought WA premier Magowan was smarter than this.
https://thewest.com.au/news/7-news-perth/premier-mark-mcgowan-takes-kids-on-government-trips-because-he-couldnt-find-a-babysitter-ng-b881116742z
I can only hope that Shorten makes it absolutely clear that the snouts stay out of the trough or it’s a sacking offence.
Saying “but they did it “ doesn’t cut it with me.
EB. No one of any intellect or value would even read Andrew Bolt. He exists in a vacuum.
EB
The character of the guy doing the defending is diminished; that is all.
An observation from today’s proceeding. Following a guilty finding or where bail’s revoked pending an appeal, it’s normal practice for legal representatives to visit the holding cell of the prisoner. Often the prisoner’s really pissed off with their representation. Thus the prisoner might say: “I’ve paid you $50,000 a day. You said that I’d beat the rap. You’re f******g useless.” Counsel responds by saying: “Look, mate, I can’t work miracles” – counsel already looking forward to his/her next prominent client.
Steve 777,
It certainly seems like an incongruous character reference when you consider the nature of the crime.
Though isn’t it of a piece with the ongoing drive of the elites to make anything THEY do acceptable, a la Donald Trump? Then they just employ people to craft the campaign to manage the outrage and ultimately make it acceptable.
Thank goodness for the judicial system which gets in their way.
frednk says:
Wednesday, February 27, 2019 at 9:41 pm
EB
The character of the guy doing the defending is diminished; that is all.
Fark off Fred.
I can’t post what I think of Andrew Bolt for fear of suffering William’s wrath.
I would say to Andrew Bolt, opinions are like arseholes, everyone’s got one.
A great piece by Rick Wilson
Michael Cohen Is Trump’s Worst Nightmare: A Loser With Nothing to Lose
The ‘fixer’ is a perfect exemplar of Trump’s world: corrupt and corrupting, venal and vicious, he is the true picture of the ‘best people’ with whom Trump surrounds himself.
Rick Wilson
02.26.19 10:24 PM ET
https://www.thedailybeast.com/michael-cohen-is-trumps-worst-nightmare-a-loser-with-nothing-to-lose?ref=home
To be diplomatic, Andrew Bolt has an inflated opinion of his opinion.
Kay Jay
Yep, that is my take too!
And thanks for your good wished for the dogs. We now also have two cats (rescued from daughter, who moved to a non-pet unit), and the four members of the Carnivora get on amazingly well.
And best wishes to Brown Bear, and commiserations on the losses in the English branch of his family.
You are very polite tonight C@t.
People keep talking about India and Pakistan and WW3, but no one has explained how a regional conflict would draw in any other participants.
I shouldn’t say this but I think Paul Murray is slightly self-opinionated.
Spot the Nats: Party listed in small print on Paul Toole campaign material #nswpol
” PAUL Toole says he is a “proud National” as he campaigns for the March 23 state election, but his new promotional material tells a different story. Mr Toole has opened a campaign office at the corner of George and Keppel streets in the Bathurst CBD, with larger-than-life posters of him smiling happily through the windows. The posters also scream “Vote 1 Paul Toole” in large, bold print and three banners hung along the awnings carry the same message. But voters have to look more closely – much more closely – to find any mention of the party Mr Toole has represented in state parliament for the past eight years.”
https://www.westernadvocate.com.au/story/5916297/spot-the-nats-party-listed-in-small-print-on-toole-campaign-material/
If Toole and head office think this attempt at trickery is going to work he really is a Toole.
What grates with me is media headline coverage and particularly the banner headlines resorted to by the Murdoch press, which exists in the same sewer as Pell and reproduced above
Pell has been found guilty at Court – and THAT is the headline
Not the too clever by half headlines Murdoch typically resorts to – when the matters are far, far more serious than the game of glib headlines
Murdoch himself is reported as illegally listening into people’s private telephone calls and then reporting those conversations in his now defunct News of the World