Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

A fortnight of sound and fury ends with exactly the same set of voting intention numbers from Newspoll as last time.

After a week of post-Ipsos hype, The Australian reports the latest Newspoll finds absolutely no change whatsoever on voting intention since a fortnight ago: Labor’s two-party lead is at 53-47, and the primary votes are Coalition 37%, Labor 39%, Greens 9% and One Nation 5%. Scott Morrison is down one on approval to 42% and up three on disapproval to 48%, while Bill Shorten is down one to 35% and up two to 53%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is unchanged at 44-35. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1582.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,194 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

  1. Big A Adrian says:
    Monday, February 25, 2019 at 9:39 pm
    the real dave, it depends entirely on where you are coming from. I have an Iraqi friend who had to wait weeks and jump through all sorts of hoops to obtain a tourist visa to australia.
    ———————————————
    Obviously not an au pair.

  2. This story involving Porter sounds really dodgy.

    Christian Porter says campaign bus is not free, it just hasn’t been paid for yet

    Attorney general says Liberals intended to buy bus from Australian Transit Group, linked to former WA minister Joe Francis

    Christian Porter says the Liberal party had agreed to purchase three campaign buses from a Western Australian company managed by ex-state Liberal politician Joe Francis months before he appointed Francis to a lucrative government-funded position.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/25/christian-porter-says-campaign-bus-is-not-free-it-just-hasnt-been-paid-for-yet

  3. Late Riser says:
    Monday, February 25, 2019 at 9:57 pm
    I’m calling it a night. If anyone wants to leave a guess for the next Essential poll, which might be out tomorrow morning, I’ll harvest and credit. Currently guesses are running at:
    PB mean: ALP 53.9 to 46.1 LNP
    PB median: ALP 54.0 to 46.0 LNP
    No. Of PB Respondents: 41

    Night all.
    Good night, I am still dreaming. 56/44 for me.

  4. Socrates @ 8:45pm,

    You make an excellent point about there being two distinct issues swirling around “Adani”: environment & jobs. The idea these are locked in a zero-sum game is increasingly a fringe right wing position. Labor will do best to draw as much attention as possible to the many employment opportunities that could be generated in central/north Qld separately from coal mining, as well as pointing out the paucity of jobs generated by this project.

    But there is a third issue bubbling away beneath the surface of “Adani”: good governance, both ethically and effectively. Tony Burke cut a very impressive figure on Insiders with his calm, patient demonstration of responsible conduct as a minister-in-waiting who could have carriage of this mine approval. A lot of people see issues like this one not as proxies for “Jobson Grothe” or “climate change cred”, but as indicators of how trustworthy the protagonists will be in handling complex, sensitive decisions. I think Tony Burke passed that test Sunday with flying colours.

  5. Citizen

    Maybe the bus company is doing a Helloworld. They have the credit card number but just haven’t got around to charging it.

    One of Porters buses has been parked in a couple of different paddocks on Great Northern Highway in Perth’s outer suburbs since last July to my knowledge.

    This is not a deal done last week.

  6. C@tmomma, I indeed look at Newcastle as an example of a city getting on with it after a major employer shutdown (and an earthquake a few years earlier too, don’t forget!). Education, health and tourism are sectors which have blossomed since the heavy hand of the ocker male shifty society and noxious fumes and river pollution have made way for the pursuit of more cerebral occupations and a more life-affirming natural environment. If a political party can’t sell that, they couldn’t sell coals to … where was it?

  7. Even the leader of The Australian Tories
    Say the public are only giving bill shorten benefit of doubt and says the coalition will win the election by a landslide


  8. Henry says:
    Monday, February 25, 2019 at 10:17 pm

    Jordan Peterson speaks so much but says so little.

    It takes a couple of utube videos to realize he is full of shit; that would explain it.

  9. PTMD,
    Re ‘They Walk Among Us’, you’ve got to wonder about Donald Trump. What is it about German/Austrian genes that produces people who can rise to the top of organised society and be so utterly controlling but yet so insane!?! Adolf and Donald. Two peas in a pod.

  10. Michael A
    Thanks and agreed. If Labor wins now and caves in on Adani it will only look weak. The trick is to stick to the principles it has established (the economic ones alone will see an end to Adani) but then help central Qld find an alternative source of jobs to more coal. Then Labor can be more credible both nationally and in Qld. Exactly what the Libs didn’t do when Holden closed here in Adelaide. Weatherall’s strategy here with the coal mine closure followed by the big battery and more wind farms was the right tack.

  11. Saw “Stan & Ollie” today, bringing back memories of one’s childhood – to wit, my parents took me to see them in Portsmouth, in ’53 – though I have no memory thereof. It really is a splendid movie.

  12. Peterson is deliberately ignoring the representative nature of being an MP. Equal representation of the number of bricklayers is not the same thing.

  13. I have a mate who flew from Sydney to Adelaide to see Peterson speak.

    Tell me, PB, how do I snap the guy out of it? It’s interrupting with our usual cricket chat – I’m sure that’s in the DSM as being indicative of a mental pathology – but I don’t have hours to waste getting up to speed on Peterson’s style or favourite arguments.

  14. Sorry Cat , it was JAMES Baldwin’s brilliant novel ‘if Beale street could talk “ not Alec Baldwin’s . Brilliantly filmed, it allows you to see black Americans as beautifully human, while suffering incredible discrimination.

  15. Yabba, you have likened catholics to dogs – to mangy dogs. As well, you’ve likened sexual violence to an infectious disease. In a way, this exonerates the sexual predator because you’ve implied they are not responsible for their condition. Their acts are ‘caused’ by their association with others. This is all entirely unsatisfactory any which way we look at it. Catholics are not dogs. They are not mangy-by-association or by-creed. Sexual predators are responsible for their actions. Your bigotry has led you into a cul de sac. Your intellectual conceit won’t allow you to address all those examples of sexual predation that do not involve Catholics; nor does it allow for all those Catholics who are not sexual predators. You’d be well served by repealing both your bigotry and your arrogance.

  16. Mogotrone @ #1130 Monday, February 25th, 2019 – 10:36 pm

    Sorry Cat , it was JAMES Baldwin’s brilliant novel ‘if Beale street could talk “ not Alec Baldwin’s . Brilliantly filmed, it allows you to see black Americans as beautifully human, while suffering incredible discrimination.

    The Guardian’s critic agrees:

    It was great to see Regina King win best supporting actress for her delicate, luminously intelligent performance in Barry Jenkins’ If Beale Street Could Talk.

    He also didn’t have much time for the awards handed out to Bohemian Rhapsody and Green Book:

    https://www.theguardian.com/film/2019/feb/25/oscars-2019-green-book-olivia-colman-the-favourite-alfonso-cuaron

  17. I just hope he is wrong because god help us if Morrison gets in and runs this country into the ground..we have the best health system in the world and the best education system but if he gets back in he will cut our services.

  18. Adrian, agreed that people from different countries can have different requirements, health checks or need to show financial capacity etc. But there are no character tests done. Only if they have been red flagged on interpol via a movement alert they may come up on the system. This has to be manually entered by an immigration or customs officer and is usually only applied when they have had a previous visa issue. For people from many countries it is just filing out an online form and a declaration. All people from these countries are of good character? This is my understanding anyway, also check out the information Roman Quad (sorry I don’t know how to spell his full name) via twitter.

  19. What is so interesting about Catharine McGregor that she is allowed to ramble on and on endlessly about nothing but herself and her boring life (or if not boring, she makes it sound boring)?

  20. Ven says:
    Monday, February 25, 2019 at 5:46 pm
    P1@4:29am
    “MS Downer is toast”
    In 2018 by-election 2PP was 58-42. This time it will be more than 60% in Sharkie’s favour.
    I have strong feeling Morrison will not visit that constituency during this election cycle.

    Downer is campaigning for Sharkie, though doubtless unintentionally. Sharkie should expect to win by a 2:1 ratio.

  21. TPOF, also Hawke showed himself to be a dick and Terri Butler is a breathe of fresh air. Calm and smart.

    McGregor spent too much time speaking on her favourite topic, herself.

  22. Q&A

    Everyone is an individual and as individuals we make decisions – including based on peer group or other influences and pressures including individul considerations

    The old story is never judge others by self

    As one who occupied a senior position in the work place, at 48 years of age and with children then aged 7 and 9, I contested the custody of them in the Family Court of Australia

    Against a Freedom of Movement and Sole Custody application and in proceedings where every vile allegation in the book was thrown at me (including being put to me in the work place)

    I reconciled that the work place held no future for me and the priorities I had (although I remained on the pay roll for another 2 years courtesy of Medical Certificates)

    These people commenting as they are have lived the lives they have lived

    And they can comment on their priorities – but that is all they can do

    Because their priorities are not necessarily the priorities of others

    Back in the day, my decisions were queried universally including by my own family who attempted to counsel me on the importance of work (and by extension image)

    Fortunately I acted on my priorities – and my belief that I was the parent who could best provide for my children, a belief the Court upheld including in a Family Report

    25 years on, and having remarried 22 years ago so raising a blended family I still could not imagine making any other decision that the decision made back then

    My commitment and decision were me

    And I did have support – those who supported me still my social circle today (and no doubt they would have supported me in employment if any such need surfaced, but it did not because of my self management of the monetary wealth I retained by Court Order)

    When I listen to the views of some who just happen to live in the same Country as me (and others) I just shake my head, as does my wife and as do our children

    Stereo typing – including working including to give you identity – is a nonsense

    In the work place my Business Card never described my seniority by my instruction

    To my client base I was their banker Full stop

    And I had a name – and a reputation – regardless of what was on a Business Card

    So, in retrospect, there was a comment there

  23. Nicholas: “Do Taxes and Bonds Finance Government Spending?”

    It is well known that that they do not. Were they to do so it would violate causality: the money flows. In particular the timings show this empirically. Steph Kelton et al measured the flows and their findings are a robust refutation of the proposition.

    However, like the fundamental MMT identity, the statement “Taxes and Bonds Do Not Finance Government Spending” is vacuously true in that it is a statement of accounting which implies nothing in economics.

    A particularly simple example of vacuous truth is:

    x -x = 0

    a true equation that has no meaning in Physics. This example comes from a short discussion of Emmy Noether’s fundamental contribution in relating General Relativity to conservation laws (of energy etc) without which General Relativity was arguably going nowhere. Anti-intellectuals (and even those despised intellectuals) are often unaware of Emmy Noether and should not be, so I include the link:

    https://plus.maths.org/content/noether

    Returning to economics, the vacuously true statement is true (obviously) in Accounting (analogous to Mathematics in the Noether case) but of itself has no implications in Economics (analogous to Physics in the Noether case). Instead one can take it and try various tactics. Generally speaking a strong currency issuer (backed by a strong real economy, government and rule of law) will get away with all sorts of stuff whereas a weak issuer such as Venezuela will collapse almost immediately. It is very interesting that Zimbabwe managed to recover to some extent. Previously the only example was Germany, and that was regarded as special case because (contrary to most histories) the Germans did it quite deliberately and really knew what they were doing.

  24. I think the Cate McGregor problem revolves around the fact that TV hosts on the ABC don’t want to be seen to be disrespectful to a Public Intellectual who has undergone the sex change that she has. I bet she knows it too.

  25. TPOF I only just tuned in to Q+A a few minutes ago and my take out is that it reconfirmed the fact that religion fucks people up.

  26. briefly @ #1130 Monday, February 25th, 2019 – 10:38 pm

    Yabba, you have likened catholics to dogs – to mangy dogs. As well, you’ve likened sexual violence to an infectious disease. In a way, this exonerates the sexual predator because you’ve implied they are not responsible for their condition. Their acts are ‘caused’ by their association with others. This is all entirely unsatisfactory any which way we look at it. Catholics are not dogs. They are not mangy-by-association or by-creed. Sexual predators are responsible for their actions. Your bigotry has led you into a cul de sac. Your intellectual conceit won’t allow you to address all those examples of sexual predation that do not involve Catholics; nor does it allow for all those Catholics who are not sexual predators. You’d be well served by repealing both your bigotry and your arrogance.

    Read it again. I am simply pointing out that your argument has fleas. I could have used any number of examples. I repeat, your argument is simply faulty. I won’t use the name given in formal logic to the particular fault, because you would not understand it. I tried to use a simple example, but you have decided to read your own warped meanings into it. Too bad. Goodnight.

  27. PuffyTMD says:
    Monday, February 25, 2019 at 6:20 pm
    How the fuck does anyone delay a burns victim for 24 hours before medevaccing them to Australia for urgent treatment?

    You would have to be one of the worst monsters on the planet.

    (ABC News about inquest into the death of a Nauru orManus Asylum Seeker who set himself on fire.)

    I am physically ill thinking about it.

    PTMD, you might be interested to know that this afternoon I attended an event hosted by the Member for Perth, Patrick Gorman and attended by Anthony Albanese. They were supported by Sue Lines, Deputy President of the Senate, a great Senator from WA. These three are all from the Left. There were about 100 supporters present, including several former members of the WA and Federal Parliaments. Albo spoke at length, and included, to much applause, remarks about the Medevac legislation. He made the point that the LNP have held refugees hostage for political reasons. He further declared that Australians are better than this; that we did not have to betray our souls nor give up on border security.

    The polls have shown that this issue has turned. The Liberals cannot use public demonstrations of cruelty to turn votes. When they do this, they campaign against themselves.

  28. Yabba, I get your purported argument. It sucks. It fails. But I’m not gonna go there. Give up your bigotry for the sake of your own peace of mind.

  29. Boerwar: “Any other good or bad luck stories?”

    I will never accept the characterisation of “Mirabella Wedding Trip” as Lucky.

  30. The solution to the problem of – predominantly – Catholic sexual abuse is to let the clergy have carnal relations – be it heterosexual, bi, gay relations. The conflagration of the Pope’s latest, poorest attempted solution is simply pathetic.

  31. briefly @ #1141 Monday, February 25th, 2019 – 10:33 pm

    PuffyTMD says:
    Monday, February 25, 2019 at 6:20 pm
    How the fuck does anyone delay a burns victim for 24 hours before medevaccing them to Australia for urgent treatment?

    You would have to be one of the worst monsters on the planet.

    (ABC News about inquest into the death of a Nauru orManus Asylum Seeker who set himself on fire.)

    I am physically ill thinking about it.

    PTMD, you might be interested to know that this afternoon I attended an event hosted by the Member for Perth, Patrick Gorman and attended by Anthony Albanese. They were supported by Sue Lines, Deputy President of the Senate, a great Senator from WA. These three are all from the Left. There were about 100 supporters present, including several former members of the WA and Federal Parliaments. Albo spoke at length, and included, to much applause, remarks about the Medevac legislation. He made the point that the LNP have held refugees hostage for political reasons. He further declared that Australians are better than this; that we did not have to betray our souls nor give up on border security.

    The polls have shown that this issue has turned. The Liberals cannot use public demonstrations of cruelty to turn votes. When they do this, they campaign against themselves.

    I am glad to hear it.

    People should be charged over this case.

  32. Red Ted,

    Noether! Commutative rings! The basis of large-scale distributed numerical computing and data mining!

    But I didn’t know of her contributions to physics – thanks!

  33. Confessions says:
    Monday, February 25, 2019 at 9:27 pm
    No Victorian MPs on Qanda tonight, wonder what gives??

    ABC Q& Averified account@ Q & A
    12 hHá 12 horas
    Tonight: #QandA is live from Melbourne with @jordanbpeterson, @AlexHawkeMP, @terrimbutler, @CateMc3273, and @vanbadham. 9.35pm AEDT on @ABCTV

    Watched the whole Q+A and came away underwhelmed wanting that hour back – Terri Butler did well as always but the rest of it was pretty lame and pointless really. Yawn.

  34. That’s really one for KB or William, but I’d say off the top of my head that if the polls are truly random samples, and were taken close enough together, then the MOE would actually be closer to that of a single poll 3 times the size – i.e. quite a bit narrower.

    I cannot see that there is any difference between ‘3 polls done close together’ and 1 poll that surveys the same number of respondents as the 3. The cumulative number of respondents is the same. The surveyed population is the same. The time frame is the same.

    ….nb…I have ancient maths only…

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