Midweek mélange

New fronts open in the Liberal Party’s internal warfare as it scrambles to prepare for an election looking increasingly to be in May.

As we wait for the 2019 polling machine to get cranking, a review of recent happenings:

• Indigenous leader Warren Mundine is to be installed as the new Liberal candidate for the marginal seat of Gilmore in southern New South Wales, supplanting the existing candidate, Grant Schultz, by decree of the party’s state executive acting at the behest of the Prime Minister. Schultz promptly quit the Liberal Party when the news broke yesterday and announced he would run as an independent. Schultz’s dumping was also blasted by Shelley Hancock, member for the corresponding state seat of South Coast, who spoke of “one of the darkest days of the Liberal Party”. A local real estate agent and son of the late Alby Schultz, former member for Hume, Schultz was preparing a challenge to the preselection of incumbent Ann Sudmalis last year, and was the only remaining nominee after she announced her retirement in September. Mundine was national president of the ALP in 2006 and 2007, but quit the party in 2012 and moved ever further into the conservative orbit thereafter. It is expected the seat will be contested for the Nationals by Katrina Hodgkinson, former state member for Burrinjuck and Cootamundra.

• Following Kelly O’Dwyer’s retirement announcement on the weekend, it appears accepted within the Liberal Party that it needs to pick a woman to succeed her. Katie Allen, a paediatrician and medical researcher who ran unsuccessfully in Prahran at the November state election, has confirmed she will nominate. Michael Koziol of The Age reports other names being discussed include Caroline Elliott, state party vice-president and daughter of businessman John Elliott, and Margaret Fitzherbert, who lost her upper house seat for Southern Metropolitan region at the state election. Senator Jane Hume has reportedly encouraged to put her name forward, but announced yesterday she would not do so.

• Anne Webster, founder of young mother support organisation Zoe Support, was chosen as the Nationals candidate for Mallee at a local preselection vote on Saturday. Webster will succeed one-term member Andrew Broad, who announced his impending retirement last month after he became embroiled in the “sugar baby” affair. Rachel Baxendale of The Australian reports Webster won in the second round of voting over Birchip accountant and farmer Bernadette Hogan and Mildura police domestic violence taskforce head Paul Matheson, with three other candidates excluded in the first round.

• Nationals Senator Bridget McKenzie has announced she will not contest the lower house seat of Indi, contrary to expectations she would do so if independent incumbent Cathy McGowan announced her retirement, which she did last weekend.

• Two notable independents have emerged to challenge Tony Abbott in Warringah: Alice Thompson, a KPMG manager who worked in the Prime Minister’s Office under Malcolm Turnbull, and Susan Moylan-Coombs, founder and director of indigenous advocacy organisation the Gaimaragal Group.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,977 comments on “Midweek mélange”

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  1. poroti @ #1847 Friday, January 25th, 2019 – 6:49 pm

    Confessions

    There must be some strong whispers going on about Costello, what with those those polls being done and PvO’s ‘out there’ articles about the second rise of the saviour Souffle.

    There was an article about it recently, can’t recall where. But Victorian Liberals have discussed trying to engineer a comeback to federal politics for him. And recently, not 10 years ago.

  2. Maybe because the Higgins seat is vacant has led to the speculation. Costello was always a quitter even when he was offered the leadership of the party on a plate.

  3. Michael,Keenan going is huge.

    He has been a loyal Dutton foot soldier, and has been given major pieces of the government’s law and order and welfare portfolios.

    Which is not bad for someone who was a real estate agent before parliament.

  4. Costello wouldn’t have the balls to take Labor on. He’s far more content to be the chairman of the Future Fund, other board memberships. Such a shame he hasn’t emulated his brother.

  5. Costello ain’t gonna happen.

    We already have a PM. It’s a Lib government. Extra-parliamentary leaders (a la Queensland) only work when you’re in opposition.

    So, either Costello is being touted as challenging a victorious PM ScoMo after a ScoMo victory, or he being touted as Oppisition Leader when ScoMo lisrs.

    And Costello will NEVER consent to be an Opposition Leader.

  6. sprocket_
    says:
    Friday, January 25, 2019 at 9:59 pm
    Michael,Keenan going is huge.
    He has been a loyal Dutton foot soldier, and has been given major pieces of the government’s law and order and welfare portfolios.
    Which is not bad for someone who was a real estate agent before parliament.
    __________________________________
    He also went to Trinity College (Perth), 17k a year. Not your average real estate agent I bet.

  7. Bushfire Bill:

    [‘Costello ain’t gonna happen.’]

    Shite, I’m on all fours with you; I don’t believe it – moving along.

  8. High-ranking West Australian government minister Michael Keenan is pulling the plug on politics — the second big name to quit Scott Morrison’s team in a week.

    Bowing out after almost 15 years as the member for the crucial seat of Stirling, Mr Keenan’s move follows Sunday’s shock resignation of Industrial Relations Minister Kelly O’Dwyer.

    Both are leaving for family reasons.

    After “agonising” over the decision for many months, the Human Services Minister said he wanted to prioritise time with his wife, Georgina, and their four children, all under the age of seven.

    https://thewest.com.au/news/wa/wa-minister-michael-keenen-quits-politics-in-blow-to-morrison-government-ng-b881085553z

  9. Surely Scotty has got to promote his 2 Envoys, Tony Abbott and Barnyard to Cabinet.

    With 2 Ministers quitting, they can’t go into the election as lame ducks 🙂

  10. William – will Keenan’s leaving make room for an easier seat for the AG?

    I suppose he could try, but I expect his plan is to hold out for Curtin, and if he loses Pearce, he loses Pearce.

  11. I do hope that the resignations of these MP’s doesn’t soften the resolution of the ALP to have Judicial inquiries/Royal Commissions into some of their actions/portfolios.

  12. Sprocket
    This will not be the last Minister to announce. Perhaps Morrison will pull the pin and hand it all back to Abbott and Dutton.

  13. PVO comments on twitter…

    Holding Stirling with Keenan was going to be tough. Without him….well, you know….

    And I can guarantee there are more to come…

  14. And some more shoes are dropping from Mueller…

    #BREAKING: The FBI has arrested Roger Stone at his home at 6am Friday, his lawyer tells CNN.

  15. Witness tampering, obstruction of an official proceeding.. sounds like a Trump rap sheet – though the 5 counts of false statements is on the low side

  16. Barney in Go Dau:

    [‘If this keeps up, will there be anyone left to campaign?’]

    You just pick it up anecdotally: FauxMo, his ministers are seen as geese.

  17. GhostWhoVotes

    @GhostWhoVotes
    1h1 hour ago
    More
    #ReachTEL Poll Seat of Higgins Primary Votes: LIB 36.9 ALP 24.8 GRN 17.7 Minor party 7.1 IND 5.1 Undecided 8.4 #auspol

  18. Confessions @ #1890 Friday, January 25th, 2019 – 6:30 pm

    Law enforcement raided Stone’s house, and CNN witnessed uniformed and armed law enforcement approach his house just after 6 a.m. ET in Fort Lauderdale, Florida.

    Pounding on his door, one agent said: “FBI. Open the door.”

    Stone opened the door.

    This story is breaking and will be updated.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2019/01/25/politics/roger-stone-arrested/

    Early hours of the morning too.

    Media tipped off, just like here! 🙁

  19. A rhyme for Sco Mo to use Ozzy Day to teach the kiddies history – we used to recite regularly at Primary School in the 70’s.

    “Captain Cook chased a Chook right around Australia
    Lost his pants in the Middle of France
    And found them in Tasmania”

  20. Barney, I’ve been meaning to ask you: have you been south to Vung Tau, a place I spent a few days back in the late ’60s, the early ’70s?

  21. Law enforcement raided Stone’s house, and CNN witnessed uniformed and armed law enforcement approach his house just after 6 a.m. ET in Fort Lauderdale, Florida.

    I reckon he never done it.

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