Essential Research should be breaking the New Year polling drought this week. Until then, three things:
• I have taken a look at state population growth trends to ascertain what the states’ House of Representatives seat entitlements are likely to be when the matter is determined a year after the next election. The table below shows how the numbers looked at the determinations following the 2013 and 2016 elections, how they are right now, and where they are headed according to current trends. Note the exact size of the House of Representatives depends on the vagaries of how these numbers are rounded: it will increase to 151 at the next election, because the last round decreed extra seats for Victoria and the Australian Capital Territory while penalising only the ever-declining South Australia. Note also that Tasmania is constitutionally entitled to five seats come what may.
2013 | 2016 | 2018 | 2019 | |
---|---|---|---|---|
NSW | 47.39 | 47.32 | 47.29 | 47.24 |
Victoria | 36.78 | 37.89 | 38.25 | 38.57 |
Queensland | 29.75 | 29.64 | 29.68 | 29.73 |
WA | 16.21 | 15.58 | 15.37 | 15.21 |
SA | 10.63 | 10.42 | 10.28 | 10.15 |
Tasmania | 3.25 | 3.15 | 3.13 | 3.10 |
ACT | 2.44 | 2.54 | 2.51 | 2.51 |
NT | 1.56 | 1.50 | 1.47 | 1.44 |
It appears quite certain Western Australia will lose the sixteenth seat it gained in 2016; that Victoria could potentially gain a seat for the second electoral cycle in a row; that the Northern Territory is in big danger of reverting to one seat after eighteen years with two; and that it’s touch-and-go for the third seat the Australian Capital Territory will gain at the coming election. Western Australia was lucky not to lose a seat last time, and has since fallen well below threshold, while Victoria’s growth rate of 0.3 seats a year leaves it projected to just make it over the line. Northern Territory’s entitlement fell below two after the 2001 election, but parliament came up with a legislative fiddle to preserve its second seat. Its population then went through a period of growth on the back of the resources boom, which has lately been in reverse. The ACT’s numbers tend to wax with Labor governments and wane with Coalition ones, owing to the parties’ respective attitudes to the public service, so the result of the coming election may have a bearing here.
• The Australian reports that Cathy McGowan, the independent member for Indi, “will make an announcement about her political future on Monday morning”. One senses the announcement will be that she is not seeking re-election, as the Voices for Indi group that was behind her successful campaigns in 2013 and 2016 has seen fit to anoint her successor: Helen Haines, a Wangaratta-based midwife and rural health researcher. However, McGowan’s position was that she would wait to see who the group chose before deciding, and Haines says she will happily leave the field clear for McGowan if she wants to continue. The unsuccessful candidates included McGowan’s sister, local lawyer Helen McGowan. It is anticipated that Senator Bridget McKenzie, who recently relocated her electorate office to Wodonga, will run for the Nationals if McGowan retires.
• The Nine Network reports Liberal internal polling shows it headed for a near total wipeout in Melbourne, with only Tim Wilson in Goldstein looking good to hang on. However, this was reportedly conducted at the time of the state election, which raises two issues: whether its proximity confused respondents, and why it whoever leaked it should be doing so now in particular.
Anyway, I’m off to bed soon…because the campaigning starts tomorrow for me! 😯
With our State election just a couple of months away we have to go full tilt before the federal election campaign for product differentiation purposes.
So up at 4.45 for a 5.30am start shaking corflutes at bleary-eyed commuters on their way to work tomorrow.
It’s the sort of commitment to democracy and getting the good guys elected that people like nath wouldn’t know if they fell over it. He’s too bitter and twisted, sad and pathetic and thinks he can change governments, or stop Oppositions getting elected, via nasty social media attacks.
No, the way to win is to wear out the shoe leather and connect with the real people in the real world.
See you on the other side of that after breakfast in the morning. 🙂
I think I’ve got it.
A native species is any animal found on the Ark or in others stories in the Bible.
🙂
Wow, here I was thinking Trump’s tweet about Elizabeth Warren was just your average common or garden culturally intolerant and insufferably boorish usual Trump snipe. But it turns out he was referring to a massacre of native Americans! He really isn’t handling either the shutdown or the impending Mueller report looming on the horizon well.
…
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2019/01/14/trump-invokes-one-worst-native-american-massacres-mock-elizabeth-warren/?utm_term=.cae169ba5e55
Oh, and you can put me down for 54-46 to the good guys. Fingers crossed. 🙂
Someone (C@t?) mentioned Oscar Wilde earlier.
Here are a couple of quotes:
“A thing is not necessarily true because a man dies for it.”
– Oscar Wilde
“Experience is merely the name men gave to their mistakes.”
– Oscar Wilde
“The world is a stage and the play is badly cast.”
– Oscar Wilde
Crikey’s Arsehat of 2018:
https://www.crikey.com.au/2018/12/19/2018-arsehat/
nath @ #1148 Monday, January 14th, 2019 – 9:26 pm
Piss off, nath, you little grub.
C@t:
Hope it goes well. I saw the NSW Electoral Commission is calling for staff, so that’s really brought into focus that you guys have an election very soon.
Staring at the wall paper from his death bed in Paris:
One of us has got to go.
55/45 for me. No Christmas bounce this year.
Like Dastyari, Lambie is also a contestant on I’m a Celebrity – Get Me Out of Here!
https://www.news.com.au/entertainment/tv/reality-tv/im-a-celebrity/celebrities-arrive-in-the-jungle-for/news-story/42e59057252a5f873a01de3401f2a7b1
Best wishes C@t
I admire your Golden Grove spirit.
55/45 to Labor for me for the first Essential of the year.
I suspected Florida Republicans would do something like this. Why are these people so opposed to democracy?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/florida-restored-voting-rights-to-former-felons-now-the-gop-wants-to-thwart-reform/2019/01/13/84e2dcdc-1520-11e9-803c-4ef28312c8b9_story.html?utm_term=.af87b1c78c10
Good luck C@t – and ignore the arsehole. You have bigger fish to fry. 🙂
TPOF @ #1165 Monday, January 14th, 2019 – 9:49 pm
Yes, sadly the internet has become the perfect vehicle for anonymous character assassination by unprincipled grubs.
TTFN. 🙂
Somewhat strange that McGowan wants McKenzie to stand in Indi:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/barnaby-joyce-and-cathy-mcgowan-want-bridget-mckenzie-to-run-in-indi-20190114-p50r90.html
Then again, judging by her voting record McGowan’s a Tory at heart.
Essential? me……..56/44 to the good guys.
I don’t mind Bill but that black shirt he has been wearing in the top end does not suit him. It shows his man boobs a little too much.
He’s been feasting over summer and that’s fair enough but jeepers, the drape of that shirt does not become him.
C@tmomma @ #1166 Monday, January 14th, 2019 – 9:52 pm
And people who can’t resist responding to them 🙁
Poll says the moron is losing in the shutdown battle:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jan/13/shutdown-americans-blame-trump
Yes mavis, i dont really trust McGowan.
Who does she think she’s is, to anoint her successor ffs.
You’re an independent, you retire, piss off.
The field is open again, big deal, let the parties fight it out.
Mavis Smith @ #1167 Monday, January 14th, 2019 – 6:54 pm
According to the article she says that if McKenzie runs she’ll bring more govt pre-election pork to Indi as well as greater public attention on the local campaign. She’s probably right, but if McKenzie runs in Indi I reckon it makes it even harder for McGowan Mk II than it otherwise would be.
Pegasus:
[‘Like Dastyari, Lambie is also a contestant on I’m a Celebrity – Get Me Out of Here!’]
I can’t get enough of reality shows.
Nath
I noticed the consensus in the Russian flat is 55/45 to labor ( with you and Rex reporting). Must be depressing feeling your posts are of such little consequence.
With the number of post last night you must have billed a packet. Does anyone do a quality check on your work? Some of the stuff was petty lame; while other posts were par excellent trolling. Can I suggest peer reviews to try and keep the standard consistent.
Confessions @ #1174 Monday, January 14th, 2019 – 6:02 pm
How does it matter what pork they bring?
They won’t be the Government, so any promises are irrelevant.
Or does she think Labor will be stupid enough to match them?
Dumb, dumb, dumb! 🙂
McGowan has also said that if McKenzie runs in Indi she’ll be ‘squashed’. (Local source, from horse’s mouth).
“McGowan is a ditz. But you know that…”
No prediction for tomorrow, but usually the Government has got a bump over Xmas-New Year, but this year they’ve been strangely unsilent so, it could go the other way. 🙂
frednk @ #1175 Monday, January 14th, 2019 – 10:06 pm
Rex clearly gets paid by the post. They are short and repetitive – why waste the effort?.
Nath, on the other hand, probably gets paid by the number of replies he gets 🙁
Yep and her successor is unlikely to be in a position to influence the next government anyway, in the event she is elected in the first place.
I’m actually very much looking forward to the next federal election, so many potential seats of interest to watch, including in WA which is unusual.
A few new entries since the last update:
51/49
Sprocket__;
52/48
It’s Time;
53/47
BK; Mavis; Al Pal; max;
53.5/46.5
Frednk;
54/46
poroti; Steve777; sonar; Upnorth; Onebobsworth; ag0044; Peter Stanton; Bennelong Lurker; Sohar; C@tmomma;
55/45
Dan; Late Riser; John R; Dave; Goll; Confessions; Toby Esterhase; Rex Douglas; DareToTread; davidwh; Andrew_Earlwood;
56/44
grimace; Player One; don; jeffemu; imacca;
57/43
PuffyTMD; Chinda63; SilentMajority;
60/40
KayJay;
Confessions:
[‘…but if McKenzie runs in Indi I reckon it makes it even harder for McGowan Mk II than it otherwise would be.’]
If McKenzie does run I think she’ll beat Haines, the former having a high profile and from a distance appears reasonable for a country Tory. Haines will only have a 4.6% buffer, which makes Indi a marginal seat.
frednk
says:
Monday, January 14, 2019 at 10:06 pm
Nath
I noticed the consensus in the Russian flat is 55/45 to labor ( with you and Rex reporting). Must be depressing feeling your posts are of such little consequence.
With the number of post last night you must have billed a packet. Does anyone do a quality check on your work? Some of the stuff was petty lame; while other posts were par excellent trolling. Can I suggest peer reviews to try and keep the standard consistent.
________________________________
Not sure what you are talking about with all the Russian stuff, but sure I’ll play along; Vladimir says hi. I will say once again I’m not a troll but I doubt you’d believe me. I’m quite friendly and rarely respond to the personal abuse I receive.
Love this bloke’s honesty after a rat was discovered in his salad.
https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/woman-finds-dead-rodent-in-salad/news-story/7c60c4fa63d9b7fa02ccc377836b58c8
Mavis:
Indi is one of the seats that I’ll be watching on election night. Isn’t it marvellous when previously safe seats turn marginal? 😀
Well, after the next election Bill Shorten will definitely not be opposition leader.
If he managed to lose he would be the biggest Labor leader laughing stock since Mark Latham. There is no chance of him matching Latham’s appealing interpersonal skills so an election loss by the Lib Nats is inevitable.
I always wondered what an ex-Labor federal leader and Pauline Hanson had in common — must be their torrid affairs with the Sky after dark morons.
Haines hasn’t a very high local profile, and McGowan-backed indies, although doing well, polled at most 20% in the State election – and that was in the northern part of the electorate, where they were well known (all the indies who ran at state level had higher profiles than Haines has).
I’m not sure McKenzie will do particularly well. Senators tend to find the shift to the Lower House difficult, as it involves contact with actual voters, and my own observations of her suggests she isn’t good at that. I don’t know why Nationals think that putting on moleskins, elastic boots and an Akubra will make them blend in up here, but they do. The locals laugh at them.
It’s a difficult field to pick, without the Mirabella factor in play. The Libs candidate is completely blah – inoffensive but totally unimpressive.
Our guy is young and keen but I have to preserve a discreet silence as I’m on the campaign team.
Henry:
What about this poor drunk chap who just wanted to get some greasy food and sober up, but instead turned into a Weekend at Bernie’s style social media embarrassment?
https://youtu.be/nAGGGuuMT4I
Henry:
I agree with you about Bill’s black shirt. White in the top end would’ve been a better choice. But, hey, he could wear anything and still beat FauxMo & his motley crew.
Confessions:
[‘Indi is one of the seats that I’ll be watching on election night. Isn’t it marvellous when previously safe seats turn marginal? ‘]
Yes, and to think that Victoria alone will most likely get Labor over the line, not too many seats normally changing hands in that state:
https://www.crikey.com.au/2019/01/14/poll-bludger-coalition-polling-2019/
Waffle House is going down fess!
Correct mavis. A crisp, white, linen number would have done the trick.
He needs to listen to Chloe.
zoomster:
[“McGowan is a ditz. But you know that…”]
Judging from QT I did get the impression that McGowan’s a bit of a scatterbrain.
But, hey, he could wear anything and still beat FauxMo & his motley crew.
_________________________________
Even two white left shoes!
Yes I read William’s article earlier when it came out with the Crikey email. The wash-up for federal Libs following the NSW state election will be something else to look for.
For the next poll put me down for 55/45 to Labor. The coalition is going bad now, as it was before Christmas. I see no reason why Shouty McShoutface’s numbers should change.
On the rail meltdown in Melbourne tonight. Unfortunate, since Labor is in the middle of doing long overdue system upgrades that will make this less likely. Previous governments put this off for years. Andrews should just tell it as it is. There is a lot to catch up on in PT systems in Australia, both repairs of current lines and capaciy expansions are needed.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/train-fault-knocks-out-key-lines-commuters-face-lengthy-delays-in-peak-hour-20190114-p50rc4.html
TPOF:
Even two left clown shoes.
Zoomster, if still around.
A loaded question but what has McGowan achieved for the electorate.
PM’s pledge to help native species was about banning animal testing, his office says
Wow, who knew we were testing lipstick on Wombats and using Koalas for air-bag tests
I read it as they would allow native animals to skip Naplan.
I am sure FDOTM would agree, subjecting marsupials to a literacy and numeracy test is cruel.