Poll positioning

Fraught preselections aplenty as the major parties get their houses in order ahead of a looming federal election.

Kicking off a federal election year with an overdue accumulation of preselection news, going back to late November:

• Liberal Party conservative Craig Kelly was last month saved from factional moderate Kent Johns’ preselection challenge in his southern Sydney seat of Hughes, which was widely reported as having decisive support in local party branches. This followed the state executive’s acquiescence to Scott Morrison’s demand that it rubber-stamp preselections for all sitting members of the House of Representatives, also confirming the positions of Jason Falinski in Mackellar, John Alexander in Bennelong and Lucy Wicks in Robertson. Kelly had threatened a week earlier to move to the cross bench if dumped, presumably with a view to contesting the seat as an independent. Malcolm Turnbull stirred the pot by calling on the executive to defy Morrison, noting there had been “such a long debate in the New South Wales Liberal Party about the importance of grass roots membership involvement”. This referred to preselection reforms that had given Johns the edge over Kelly, which had been championed by conservatives and resisted by moderates. Turnbull’s critics noted he raised no concerns when the executive of the Victorian branch guaranteed sitting members’ preselections shortly before he was dumped as Prime Minister.

• The intervention that saved Craig Kelly applied only to lower house members, and was thus of no use to another beleaguered conservative, Senator Jim Molan, who had been relegated a week earlier to the unwinnable fourth position on the Coalition’s ticket. Hollie Hughes and Andrew Bragg were chosen for the top two positions, with the third reserved to the Nationals (who have chosen Perin Davey, owner of a communications consultancy, to succeed retiring incumbent John “Wacka” Williams). Despite anger at the outcome from conservatives in the party and the media, Scott Morrison declined to intervene. Morrison told 2GB that conservatives themselves were to blame for Molan’s defeat in the preselection ballot, as there was “a whole bunch of people in the very conservative part of our party who didn’t show up”.

• Labor’s national executive has chosen Diane Beamer, a former state government minister who held the seats of Badgerys Creek and Mulgoa from 1995 to 2011, to replace Emma Husar in Lindsay. The move scotched Husar’s effort to recant her earlier decision to vacate the seat, after she became embroiled in accusations of bullying and sexual harassment in August. Husar is now suing Buzzfeed over its reporting of the allegations, and is reportedly considering running as an independent. The Liberals have preselected Melissa McIntosh, communications manager for the not-for-profit Wentworth Community Housing.

• The misadventures of Nationals MP Andrew Broad have created an opening in his seat of Mallee, which has been in National/Country Party hands since its creation in 1949, although the Liberals have been competitive when past vacancies have given them the opportunity to contest it. The present status on suggestions the seat will be contested for the Liberals by Peta Credlin, who was raised locally in Wycheproof, is that she is “being encouraged”. There appears to be a view in the Nationals that the position should go to a woman, with Rachel Baxendale of The Australian identifying three potential nominees – Anne Mansell, chief executive of Dried Fruits Australia; Caroline Welsh, chair of the Birchip Cropping Group; and Tanya Chapman, former chair of Citrus Australia – in addition to confirmed starter Anne Warner, a social worker.

• Nationals Senator Bridget McKenzie yesterday scotched suggestions that she might run in Mallee. The view is that she is positioning herself to succeeding Cathy McGowan in Indi if she decides not to recontest, having recently relocated her electorate office from Bendigo to one of Indi’s main population centres, Wodonga. The Liberals last month preselected Steven Martin, a Wodonga-based engineer.

• Grant Schultz, Milton real estate agent and son of former Hume MP Alby Schultz, has been preselected as Liberal candidate for Gilmore on New South Wales’ south coast, which the party holds on a delicate margin of 0.7%. The seat is to be vacated by Ann Sudmalis, whose preselection Schultz was preparing to challenge when she announced her retirement in September. It was reported in the South Coast Register that Joanna Gash, who held the seat from 1996 to 2013 and is now the mayor of Shoalhaven (UPDATE: Turns out Gash ceased to be so as of the 2016 election, and is now merely a councillor), declared herself “pissed off” at the local party’s endorsement of Schultz, which passed by forty votes to nine.

• Hawkesbury councillor Sarah Richards has been preselected as the Liberal candidate in Macquarie, where Labor’s Susan Templeman unseated Liberal member Louise Markus in 2016.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,175 comments on “Poll positioning”

  1. Suffered through watchin gTrump do his rambling, barely coherent rant last night about his Border Wall being made of STEEL so its STRONG!!! FFS……the man came across as a moron. If some builder gave you a lecture like that bidding for a contract to build you would walk away and find somone else on the basis that you really would not want to employ an idiot like that.

    He’s doing a speech to the nation on this?? His “base” will lap it up, but they are idiots…..and the people he needs to win over wont be.

  2. This is what allowing Cubby station to ‘harvest’ 60% of the water in the Culgo River does to the downstream Darling system. Ideal crop for Australia, eh, Borewore.

    Upnorth @ #2770 Tuesday, January 8th, 2019 – 11:20 am

    Player One says:
    Tuesday, January 8, 2019 at 10:55 am
    Simon² Katich® @ #2743 Tuesday, January 8th, 2019 – 10:48 am

    Funny how quickly the NSW Department of Environment insisted water management is not to blame. A rather Orwellian Department name.

    It clearly never occurred to them that on the driest continent on earth, in the middle of the worst drought in living memory, with water upriver being massively over-allocated to commercial interests, and with environmental flows being sacrificed so that farmers can grow non-essential water-intensive crops … that we might have a problem.

    I mean … who could possibly have predicted it? _____________________________________________________________
    Here we go again an attempt at Queensland bashing when it comes the Murray Darling Basin. I have pointed out before that 35% of the MDB is in QLD yet Queensland extracts about 6% of the water.

    The real culprits are the Dairy farmers in NSW and Vic. growing green grass to feed their moo moos so Australian’s can have milk with their Cornflakes.

    Upnorth, I suggest that you do a little research before you make silly, ill-informed statements. The Murray Darling basin is a drainage basin, the mouth of which happens to be in South Australia, and that is all it is. What happens on the Darling upstream of Wentworth has absolutely nothing to do with what happens in the Murray system in say, Mildura or Tumut. At present, ie yesterday, the flow in the Darling at Wilcannia was about 1 ML/day, while the flow at Colignan, in the Murray before it meets the Darling, was 9,600 ML/day, ie 9600 times the flow. Get it!
    https://riverdata.mdba.gov.au/system-view

    Quoting percentages of the total basin flow is pointless, in that no useful conclusions can be drawn from their magnitude.
    NO water from Queeensland is used to irrigate dairy farms in Victoria or NSW, nor has it ever been. Such water comes from the Murrumbidgee (bugger all), and the Murray and Goulburn, used within Victoria.

    Cubbie Station and several other enormous farms in Queensland have turned the floodplains of the Barwon, Culgoa, Bokhara, Birri and Narran rivers into private dams, capturing all the water that would have been flood runoff, so that it never becomes available in a river to be ‘extracted’. They have constructed enormous bunds (levees) a few metres back from the banks of the watercourses, that capture all of the water that flows into, or falls onto their vast landholdings. They use what they can, and the rest evaporates.

    There are not now, and have not really been for some 15 years, any of the previously regular floods that actually caused the Darling River to flow all of the way to the Murray, near Wentworth. These floods, every 2 or 3 years, used to fill the Menindee Lakes, near Broken Hill, and the literally thousands of billabongs and bow bends along the course of the Darling. The blue green algae outbreaks, and massive fish kills, including many hundred year old murray cod, are the result of this profound change in the normal river flood/drought cycle interacting with high nutrient levels from farming which is now never flushed downstream.

    Cubbie is Chinese/Japanese owned, as are most of the cotton farms, (and many of the intensive beef farms). They sell their crop at minimal ‘profit’ to their marketing subsidiaries in Hong Kong and Singapore, via pass-through entities in the Netherlands Antilles and such-like, which then on-sell it to their textile companies in Japan and China. Almost no tax is paid in Australia. Farm workers are paid as little as possible. The seasonal workers are accommodated on farm, and don’t even provide any worthwhile income to the local towns. They even fly in their own groceries.

    Our irreplaceable river systems, and their fauna and flora, are being destroyed before our eyes for bugger all return to this country, and the National Party is aiding and abetting the rapine.

    See if you can reply without a jibe about Mensa, any of you.

  3. Narns @ #2876 Tuesday, January 8th, 2019 – 2:27 pm

    An electric guitar would be inaudible on stage without electricity to the pickup, and thence to the amplifier and speakers.

    Nope:

    Most electric guitars are completely passive. That is, they consume no power, and you don’t have to plug them into a power supply. (Some do have “active” electronics powered by an onboard battery.) The vibration of the strings produces a signal in the pickup coil. That bare, unamplified signal is what comes out of the guitar and into the amp.

    The amp’s job is to take the guitar’s signal and make it audible by boosting it enough to drive a speaker. The fascinating thing about an electric guitar amp is that the amp is actually a part of the instrument.

    https://entertainment.howstuffworks.com/electric-guitar2.htm

    So what is the purpose of the cable typically connecting the guitar to the amp?

  4. don @ #2703 Tuesday, January 8th, 2019 – 6:39 am

    grimace @ #2696 Tuesday, January 8th, 2019 – 9:34 am

    don @ #2652 Tuesday, January 8th, 2019 – 5:12 am

    When I was at uni I sat on the Guild Council in several different positions, including President. In the 3 years I was involved, the Schools of Nursing and Education were responsible for more academic appeals than every other school at the university put together despite being about 10% of the student population.

    With education placements, the feedback that we consistently got from students was that you should do whatever it took to get a male teacher as your prac placement supervisor, and if you couldn’t do that, you needed to make sure that you clicked personally with your female prac placement supervisor. If you didn’t personally get along with your female supervisor, you could kiss goodbye your chances of passing the prac placement regardless of how good you otherwise were.

    That is very interesting. I have never heard of that situation before, though I have only ever been involved as a classroom teacher with prac students, so it never came to my attention.

    Now you know why you were so popular as a supervisor of prac students. Sorry to be the one to break it to you that your popularity wasn’t a result of your sunny personality.

  5. don
    I could do 10/16 of those questions. That augurs very poorly for next when my son does Specialist Maths and he asks me a question.

  6. Hungry jack @ #2897 Tuesday, January 8th, 2019 – 2:51 pm

    don

    thanks for link

    has the maths extension/4U/1U become more or less difficult over years

    3 hours! to the uninitiated it seems like 3 days

    hard to believe all this covered in two years or less

    It has stayed much the same, I believe, but the course has altered a little.

    But it is now and always was bloody hard.

  7. Also re cotton farmers, thanks only to the 4 corners investigation and show 18 mths ago, it seems this would have just gone on and on most likely

    “A prominent Barwon-Darling irrigator has pleaded guilty to three charges of breaching New South Wales water management rules, the first prosecutions following a major exposé by the ABC’s Four Corners 16 months ago alleging water theft under the Murray-Darling Basin plan.”
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/nov/26/prominent-barwon-darling-irrigator-pleads-guilty-to-illegal-pumping

  8. grimace @ #2906 Tuesday, January 8th, 2019 – 3:11 pm

    don @ #2703 Tuesday, January 8th, 2019 – 6:39 am

    grimace @ #2696 Tuesday, January 8th, 2019 – 9:34 am

    don @ #2652 Tuesday, January 8th, 2019 – 5:12 am

    When I was at uni I sat on the Guild Council in several different positions, including President. In the 3 years I was involved, the Schools of Nursing and Education were responsible for more academic appeals than every other school at the university put together despite being about 10% of the student population.

    With education placements, the feedback that we consistently got from students was that you should do whatever it took to get a male teacher as your prac placement supervisor, and if you couldn’t do that, you needed to make sure that you clicked personally with your female prac placement supervisor. If you didn’t personally get along with your female supervisor, you could kiss goodbye your chances of passing the prac placement regardless of how good you otherwise were.

    That is very interesting. I have never heard of that situation before, though I have only ever been involved as a classroom teacher with prac students, so it never came to my attention.

    Now you know why you were so popular as a supervisor of prac students. Sorry to be the one to break it to you that your popularity wasn’t a result of your sunny personality.

    I know, it was my wit, my charm, my intelligence and beauty!

  9. Mavis

    Thanks for the reply this morning.

    Yes, at some stage i hope Anning disappears into obscurity. As a Senator he is given voice by the free MSM publicity, but as a nobody he might have to pay.

    Probably he’ll get a bit more free publicity after he’s gone, by way of publishing something outrageous but hopefully only in short term.

  10. yabba:

    [‘Ideal crop for Australia, eh, Borewore.’]

    I haven’t seen Boerwar post for a while.

    [‘See if you can reply without a jibe about Mensa, any of you.’]

    Okay, I can’t help myself: it was you who made an issue out of your Mensa membership.

  11. Psyclaw:

    [‘Thanks for the reply this morning.’]

    My pleasure.

    [‘Probably he’ll get a bit more free publicity after he’s gone, by way of publishing something outrageous…’]

    Perhaps a revision of Mein Kampf.

  12. DTT

    I think the first of the 6 years (Wyndham Scheme: HSC replaced LC) NSW students did the HSC a few years before 1968.

    As to teacher training then in NSW, students could do 2 year Infants or Primary training or 2 years Junior Sec training at a Teachers College. Alternatively others did a Uni degree (basic 3 years unless Honours) followed by a 1 year Dip Ed.

    The Dip Ed was provided by the NSW Ed Dept, usually at Teachers Colleges, and not by the Uni.

    In late 1964/1965 three year basic training was announced. “Better” 1965 students were invited to remain an extra year to gain 3 year status (as salary was based on years of training, this was financially advantageous)

  13. So what is the purpose of the cable typically connecting the guitar to the amp?

    To carry the signal produced by the pickup into the amp.

  14. Mavis Smith @ #2915 Tuesday, January 8th, 2019 – 3:20 pm

    yabba:

    [‘Ideal crop for Australia, eh, Borewore.’]

    I haven’t seen Boerwar post for a while.

    [‘See if you can reply without a jibe about Mensa, any of you.’]

    Okay, I can’t help myself: it was you who made an issue out of your Mensa membership.

    Its not an issue, its just a fact. I am sorry for you if you find it a problem.

    For me, its just been way to find a group of people with whom I can have a robust discussion, and exchange repartee, without having to deal with holy rollers, or those who do not understand the limitations of their own knowledge, understanding or reasoning power. I get enough of those at Labor Party meetings, and on the occasions that I look to see what’s happening on here.

    I suppose I am just a common or garden type intellectual snob. How about you?

  15. a r @ #2918 Tuesday, January 8th, 2019 – 3:27 pm

    don @ #2854 Tuesday, January 8th, 2019 – 12:43 pm

    Here is the Extension 2 (used to be 4 unit) paper.

    Gold koala stamp for anyone who can complete it in the required time!

    Nope. Don’t remember enough for #3. #5 is nasty because two of the roots are imaginary. Though I got #6 so in principle I should be able to do #5.

    ‘C’ is my guess for #9 and #10.

    Here are the answers:

    https://educationstandards.nsw.edu.au/wps/wcm/connect/84098eb6-ba88-4c63-a424-32886220e0e2/2017-hsc-mg-maths-ext-2.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CACHEID=ROOTWORKSPACE-84098eb6-ba88-4c63-a424-32886220e0e2-maZHVA8

  16. I listened to a recent broadcast on RN ABC about a researcher into the red tailed cockatoo. There are only 1400 of them left. Their habitat has been destroyed and they can’t find tree hollows in which to breed.

    This is just one example of the extraordinary efficiency of Australian settlers in destroying the Country as quickly as possible.

    Our political system is unable or unwilling to address the environmental disaster that that the country faces and the great rate of extinctions that are coming.

    Of course our political system merely reflects the inadequate character of Australian settler society.

  17. Diogenes @ #2909 Tuesday, January 8th, 2019 – 3:12 pm

    don
    I could do 10/16 of those questions. That augurs very poorly for next when my son does Specialist Maths and he asks me a question.

    Tell him a joke!

    Three psephologists go out hunting together. After a while they spot a solitary rabbit. The first statistician takes aim and overshoots. The second aims and undershoots. The third shouts out “We got him!”

  18. And both the Liberals and Labor (what i think of as the two “Howard” parties) agree the biggest problem facing the Country is insufficient new settlers!!

  19. I attended a speech/Q&A given by Biden in 2006 in Iowa, when he was spruiking his policy on Iraq (Biden-Gelb plan) – a prelude to his run for the Presidency. He was stolid, but fairly uninspiring. Doesn’t mean he wouldn’t make a good candidate – if Trump is exciting, then boring is good.

  20. yabba:

    [‘I suppose I am just a common or garden type intellectual snob. How about you?’]

    To be a snob, one has to have something to be snobbish about – which I don’t. Moreover, I don’t have any problems with you having a high IQ, other than to suggest it’s a bit rich to publish the fact. Such should in lieu be evident in your posts, which it often is.

  21. TPOF @ #2916 Tuesday, January 8th, 2019 – 3:23 pm

    Has anyone with actual knowledge reported on the probable or actual cause of the dead fish?

    The Peter Hannam article posted above includes Prof Richard Kingsford (NSW Uni) who is probably one of the most informed and experienced academics on the MDB ecology and water. Though the commentary from the locals and farmers along the river are certainly just as worthwhile. Their FB posts and comments seem to reflect how appalled they are. They seem to want the rest of the country to know what is happening, whether the rest of the country wants to hear about it or not.

    Human idiocy and wishful thinking seems the most obvious ultimate cause, with wilful ignorance being an aggravating aspect

  22. Greensborough Growler @ #2926 Tuesday, January 8th, 2019 – 12:38 pm

    Diogenes @ #2909 Tuesday, January 8th, 2019 – 3:12 pm

    don
    I could do 10/16 of those questions. That augurs very poorly for next when my son does Specialist Maths and he asks me a question.

    Tell him a joke!

    Three psephologists go out hunting together. After a while they spot a solitary rabbit. The first statistician takes aim and overshoots. The second aims and undershoots. The third shouts out “We got him!”

    The version of that I’d heard was three statisticians playing golf. The first tees off and the ball stops a metre to the right of the hole. The second tees off and the ball stops a metre to the left of the hole. As soon as the second ball stops rolling, the third jumps in the air and yells, “Yippee! A hole in one.”

    Same principle as yours.

  23. Interactive: https://www.theage.com.au/business/workplace/do-you-earn-enough-find-out-the-median-annual-income-for-your-job-20190107-p50pzl.html

    If you want to earn the big bucks without having to go through medical or law school, become a politician. Members of parliament rank 31st out of more than 1000 jobs, with the median earnings being a tidy $184,840 a year.

    These median annual taxable-income figures include not only the job’s salary, but any possible additional earnings from rent, bank interest, dividends and bonuses. They are based on the amounts people stated as their earnings before tax but after deductions on their 2015/16 tax returns.

  24. yabba @ #2922 Tuesday, January 8th, 2019 – 3:32 pm

    Its not an issue, its just a fact. I am sorry for you if you find it a problem.

    For me, its just been way to find a group of people with whom I can have a robust discussion, and exchange repartee, without having to deal with holy rollers, or those who do not understand the limitations of their own knowledge, understanding or reasoning power. I get enough of those at Labor Party meetings, and on the occasions that I look to see what’s happening on here.

    I suppose I am just a common or garden type intellectual snob. How about you?

    FFS. Nobody cares 🙁

  25. Quoll @ #2930 Tuesday, January 8th, 2019 – 3:47 pm

    TPOF @ #2916 Tuesday, January 8th, 2019 – 3:23 pm

    Has anyone with actual knowledge reported on the probable or actual cause of the dead fish?

    The Peter Hannam article posted above includes Prof Richard Kingsford (NSW Uni) who is probably one of the most informed and experienced academics on the MDB ecology and water. Though the commentary from the locals and farmers along the river are certainly just as worthwhile. Their FB posts and comments seem to reflect how appalled they are. They seem to want the rest of the country to know what is happening, whether the rest of the country wants to hear about it or not.

    Human idiocy and wishful thinking seems the most obvious ultimate cause, with wilful ignorance being an aggravating aspect

    ABC had a report earlier. Blue Green Algae caused by lack of flow from upstream.

    https://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/worldtoday/millions-of-fish-killed-in-the-murray-darling-basin/10697608

  26. Player One @ #2934 Tuesday, January 8th, 2019 – 3:52 pm

    yabba @ #2922 Tuesday, January 8th, 2019 – 3:32 pm

    Its not an issue, its just a fact. I am sorry for you if you find it a problem.

    For me, its just been way to find a group of people with whom I can have a robust discussion, and exchange repartee, without having to deal with holy rollers, or those who do not understand the limitations of their own knowledge, understanding or reasoning power. I get enough of those at Labor Party meetings, and on the occasions that I look to see what’s happening on here.

    I suppose I am just a common or garden type intellectual snob. How about you?

    FFS. Nobody cares 🙁

    Is Yabba a member of Densa?

  27. ‘Nature bites back’: Algal blooms trigger mass fish deaths in western NSW
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/environment/sustainability/nature-bites-back-algal-blooms-trigger-mass-fish-deaths-in-western-nsw-20190107-p50q0m.html

    Further including Prof Richard Kingsford from Sep last year
    We must strengthen, not weaken, environmental protections during drought – or face irreversible loss
    https://theconversation.com/we-must-strengthen-not-weaken-environmental-protections-during-drought-or-face-irreversible-loss-102901

  28. Quoll

    Thanks for that. Quite enlightening. I hope there is a thorough investigation into the whole environmental chain, rather than just the immediate cause. I note the MDBA is doing its usual trick of pointing to natural events, rather than mismanagement of the river system.

  29. Dan Gulberry @ #2931 Tuesday, January 8th, 2019 – 3:49 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #2926 Tuesday, January 8th, 2019 – 12:38 pm

    Diogenes @ #2909 Tuesday, January 8th, 2019 – 3:12 pm

    don
    I could do 10/16 of those questions. That augurs very poorly for next when my son does Specialist Maths and he asks me a question.

    Tell him a joke!

    Three psephologists go out hunting together. After a while they spot a solitary rabbit. The first statistician takes aim and overshoots. The second aims and undershoots. The third shouts out “We got him!”

    The version of that I’d heard was three statisticians playing golf. The first tees off and the ball stops a metre to the right of the hole. The second tees off and the ball stops a metre to the left of the hole. As soon as the second ball stops rolling, the third jumps in the air an yells, “Yippee! A hole in one.”

    Same principle as yours.

    OK, Try this:

    Write the expression for the volume of a thick crust pizza with height “a” and radius “z”.

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