Poll positioning

Fraught preselections aplenty as the major parties get their houses in order ahead of a looming federal election.

Kicking off a federal election year with an overdue accumulation of preselection news, going back to late November:

• Liberal Party conservative Craig Kelly was last month saved from factional moderate Kent Johns’ preselection challenge in his southern Sydney seat of Hughes, which was widely reported as having decisive support in local party branches. This followed the state executive’s acquiescence to Scott Morrison’s demand that it rubber-stamp preselections for all sitting members of the House of Representatives, also confirming the positions of Jason Falinski in Mackellar, John Alexander in Bennelong and Lucy Wicks in Robertson. Kelly had threatened a week earlier to move to the cross bench if dumped, presumably with a view to contesting the seat as an independent. Malcolm Turnbull stirred the pot by calling on the executive to defy Morrison, noting there had been “such a long debate in the New South Wales Liberal Party about the importance of grass roots membership involvement”. This referred to preselection reforms that had given Johns the edge over Kelly, which had been championed by conservatives and resisted by moderates. Turnbull’s critics noted he raised no concerns when the executive of the Victorian branch guaranteed sitting members’ preselections shortly before he was dumped as Prime Minister.

• The intervention that saved Craig Kelly applied only to lower house members, and was thus of no use to another beleaguered conservative, Senator Jim Molan, who had been relegated a week earlier to the unwinnable fourth position on the Coalition’s ticket. Hollie Hughes and Andrew Bragg were chosen for the top two positions, with the third reserved to the Nationals (who have chosen Perin Davey, owner of a communications consultancy, to succeed retiring incumbent John “Wacka” Williams). Despite anger at the outcome from conservatives in the party and the media, Scott Morrison declined to intervene. Morrison told 2GB that conservatives themselves were to blame for Molan’s defeat in the preselection ballot, as there was “a whole bunch of people in the very conservative part of our party who didn’t show up”.

• Labor’s national executive has chosen Diane Beamer, a former state government minister who held the seats of Badgerys Creek and Mulgoa from 1995 to 2011, to replace Emma Husar in Lindsay. The move scotched Husar’s effort to recant her earlier decision to vacate the seat, after she became embroiled in accusations of bullying and sexual harassment in August. Husar is now suing Buzzfeed over its reporting of the allegations, and is reportedly considering running as an independent. The Liberals have preselected Melissa McIntosh, communications manager for the not-for-profit Wentworth Community Housing.

• The misadventures of Nationals MP Andrew Broad have created an opening in his seat of Mallee, which has been in National/Country Party hands since its creation in 1949, although the Liberals have been competitive when past vacancies have given them the opportunity to contest it. The present status on suggestions the seat will be contested for the Liberals by Peta Credlin, who was raised locally in Wycheproof, is that she is “being encouraged”. There appears to be a view in the Nationals that the position should go to a woman, with Rachel Baxendale of The Australian identifying three potential nominees – Anne Mansell, chief executive of Dried Fruits Australia; Caroline Welsh, chair of the Birchip Cropping Group; and Tanya Chapman, former chair of Citrus Australia – in addition to confirmed starter Anne Warner, a social worker.

• Nationals Senator Bridget McKenzie yesterday scotched suggestions that she might run in Mallee. The view is that she is positioning herself to succeeding Cathy McGowan in Indi if she decides not to recontest, having recently relocated her electorate office from Bendigo to one of Indi’s main population centres, Wodonga. The Liberals last month preselected Steven Martin, a Wodonga-based engineer.

• Grant Schultz, Milton real estate agent and son of former Hume MP Alby Schultz, has been preselected as Liberal candidate for Gilmore on New South Wales’ south coast, which the party holds on a delicate margin of 0.7%. The seat is to be vacated by Ann Sudmalis, whose preselection Schultz was preparing to challenge when she announced her retirement in September. It was reported in the South Coast Register that Joanna Gash, who held the seat from 1996 to 2013 and is now the mayor of Shoalhaven (UPDATE: Turns out Gash ceased to be so as of the 2016 election, and is now merely a councillor), declared herself “pissed off” at the local party’s endorsement of Schultz, which passed by forty votes to nine.

• Hawkesbury councillor Sarah Richards has been preselected as the Liberal candidate in Macquarie, where Labor’s Susan Templeman unseated Liberal member Louise Markus in 2016.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,175 comments on “Poll positioning”

  1. ‘Coalition accuses Labor of wanting to junk mutual obligations in the welfare system as Tony Abbott tweets his anger.’

    As if anybody cares what Abbott thinks anymore.

  2. briefly @ #2831 Tuesday, January 8th, 2019 – 12:57 pm

    Late Riser says:
    Tuesday, January 8, 2019 at 12:37 pm
    briefly

    Of course, for mine, I would happily give up everything else to be with my grand-child. I have no happier hours than those I spend with her.

    This deserves a separate response. You are a very fortunate man. 🙂

    Indeed, I am.

    I’m very proud to report that she’s a rocker. She can not-quite walk unassisted, but she can dance. She stands by herself so she can clap with the music; taps her feet; moves her body in time, swaying and bobbing; rocking her head from side to side. Her favourites are Nina Simone and John Lee Hooker, who she will watch intently. She goes looking for my phone and gets my attention, telling me in her way that she wants some YouTube. A delight. An absolute delight.

    She was tired yesterday afternoon and did not want to sit up by herself to eat. So I put her on my knee and fed her one bite at time. A slice of banana. A raspberry. A slice of banana. A black currant. A slice of banana, sweet-ripe. She ate from my fingers. When she’d had enough she stopped eating and then started to pick up the remaining fruit and fed it to me, a bite at time, from her hand to my mouth. She had an approving look on her face each time. Very, very beautiful.

    She needs an axe, an electric guitar, as soon as she can hold a mini sized one! Plug her in and let her wail!

    (now why is it an electric guitar, but not an electrical guitar? English is a weird language!)

  3. a r says: Tuesday, January 8, 2019 at 1:21 pm

    Wasn’t Trump supposed to have started his speech 20 minutes ago? I’m assuming he hasn’t yet, as the anticipated flood of stupid and racist Trump quotes hasn’t appeared. Or has the world been stunned into silence?

    **********************************************

    Tuesday – 9 pm – US time ????

    All major TV networks to carry Trump’s border speech Tuesday night

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/all-major-tv-networks-to-carry-trumps-border-speech-tuesday-night-2019-01-07

  4. Diogenes @ #2812 Tuesday, January 8th, 2019 – 12:28 pm

    don
    I don’t think we have extension maths in SA. We have grade 12 Specialist Maths but SACE doesn’t list Extension maths as a topic. My nephew is doing extension maths in Nsw this year.

    Here is the Extension 2 (used to be 4 unit) paper.

    Gold koala stamp for anyone who can complete it in the required time!

    I have always maintained that the only students who should do Extension 2 maths for the NSW HSC are those for whom it would be cruel and unusual punishment NOT to let them do it!

    There was one year when the last question was not completed successfully by any student in the state, and only one student got about half way through it. Serious maths.

    Edit:

    the link:

    http://educationstandards.nsw.edu.au/wps/wcm/connect/700df45c-5316-4877-9766-ccd681854bb8/2017-hsc-maths-ext-2.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CACHEID=ROOTWORKSPACE-700df45c-5316-4877-9766-ccd681854bb8-lZgHUPF

  5. Stephen Koukoulas
    ‏@TheKouk
    42m42 minutes ago

    There are 683,000 people unemployed
    There are 241,000 job vacancies
    20 applications per month per unemployed person is 13,600,000 applications for those 241,000 vacancies
    That’s 272,000,000 applications per year
    How ridiculous is that?

  6. briefly @ #2857 Tuesday, January 8th, 2019 – 1:50 pm

    Don, the word is ‘electrified’… 🙂

    Well, yes, better than electrical. But it is not the word which is used.

    Electric guitar is what wikipedia goes for.

    If you google electrified guitar, google gives links all about electric guitars.

    I suspect that an electrified guitar is an acoustic guitar with an electric pick up added.

  7. don says:
    Tuesday, January 8, 2019 at 1:55 pm
    briefly @ #2857 Tuesday, January 8th, 2019 – 1:50 pm

    Don, the word is ‘electrified’…

    Well, yes, better than electrical. But it is not the word which is used.

    Electric guitar is what wikipedia goes for.

    If you google electrified guitar, google gives links all about electric guitars.

    I suspect that an electrified guitar is an acoustic guitar with an electric pick up added.

    An electrified guitar is like he one Keith Richards played in Sacramento in December 1965.

  8. CNN’s Jim Acosta: One word will shape Trump’s address to the nation

    On Monday, CNN’s Jim’s Acosta revealed that Trump would use his prime-time appearance to speak fear into the nation. During an interview with CNN host Anderson Cooper, Acosta said that the word “crisis” was used repeatedly in the White House to describe the border.

    “I was in a briefing today, off camera with Mike Pence and the homeland security secretary and the word they used time and again was ‘crisis,’” he said. “They’re going try to make the case to the American people, that the country faces a crisis.”

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/01/cnns-jim-acosta-says-this-one-word-will-shape-trumps-address-to-the-nation/

  9. Peter Stanton @ #2862 Tuesday, January 8th, 2019 – 2:00 pm

    don says:
    Tuesday, January 8, 2019 at 1:55 pm
    briefly @ #2857 Tuesday, January 8th, 2019 – 1:50 pm

    Don, the word is ‘electrified’…

    Well, yes, better than electrical. But it is not the word which is used.

    Electric guitar is what wikipedia goes for.

    If you google electrified guitar, google gives links all about electric guitars.

    I suspect that an electrified guitar is an acoustic guitar with an electric pick up added.

    An electrified guitar is like he one Keith Richards played in Sacramento in December 1965.

    Yes, that was a shocking gig.

  10. I suspect that an electrified guitar is an acoustic guitar with an electric pick up added.

    Your typical electric guitar is not electrified – the pickups are passive.
    “Electromagnetic guitar” is more accurate; the vibrating strings induce a small current in the pickup coils, which is then amplified.

  11. Upnorth

    Here we go again an attempt at Queensland bashing when it comes the Murray Darling Basin.

    I didnt mention or allude to Queensland. I specifically had a go at NSW.

    But now you mention it. That whole Bluebottle infestation on QLD beaches must be fake news. Because we all know Queensland is beautiful one day and perfect the next… and you can swim anywhere between the flags – one flag at the border with NSW and t’other the Torres Strait – according to a smarmy looking cane toad of a lifesaver..

  12. Jaeger @ #2865 Tuesday, January 8th, 2019 – 2:06 pm

    I suspect that an electrified guitar is an acoustic guitar with an electric pick up added.

    Your typical electric guitar is not electrified – the pickups are passive.
    “Electromagnetic guitar” is more accurate; the vibrating strings induce a small current in the pickup coils, which is then amplified.

    An electric guitar would be inaudible on stage without electricity to the pickup, and thence to the amplifier and speakers.

  13. Simon² Katich®

    You forgot one thing lurking in Quinceland waters which makes all the blue bottles,crocs and Irrukanji danger mere Meh!.

  14. steve davis

    The Small Business Association guy was amazingly positive about the proposed changes. Positively discombobulating hearing an SBA peasant sing the praises of something Labor wants to do 🙂

  15. Simon² Katich® says:
    Tuesday, January 8, 2019 at 2:08 pm
    Upnorth

    Here we go again an attempt at Queensland bashing when it comes the Murray Darling Basin.

    I didnt mention or allude to Queensland. I specifically had a go at NSW.

    But now you mention it. That whole Bluebottle infestation on QLD beaches must be fake news. Because we all know Queensland is beautiful one day and perfect the next… and you can swim anywhere between the flags – one flag at the border with NSW and t’other the Torres Strait – according to a smarmy looking cane toad of a lifesaver..
    ———————————————————————————-
    Nah swimming in the ocean is off this time of the year Upnorth. It’s summer so box jelly fish are about along with the usual crocs and sharks.

    The again I’d rather take my chances with the them a “Tory Turd” at Bondi.

    Twenty years after the NSW government first promised to fix the problem, 4 million litres a day of untreated sewage continues to be released into the sea from cliffs between Bondi Beach and South Head at the entrance to Sydney Harbour.

    “Raw sewage from four of Sydney’s wealthiest suburbs – Watsons Bay, Vaucluse, Rose Bay and Dover Heights – is discharged at the shoreline despite Sydney Water commissioning report after report over three decades into corrective works required.”

  16. You forgot one thing lurking in Quinceland waters…

    Ahhhhhh!

    Nothing spoils Queensland quite like the prevalence of Queenslanders.

  17. PhoenixRed

    I was really hoping that Robert Mueller would have finished tying up loose ends by now.
    After the Kashoggi killing, I guess it was too much to expect.
    The whole Kremlin Saudi, Israel nexus is obviously needing more work.
    Meanwhile as soon as the dems take the house Trump orchestrates a shut down and crisis. You couldn’t make this shit up.

  18. “Raw sewage from four of Sydney’s wealthiest suburbs – Watsons Bay, Vaucluse, Rose Bay and Dover Heights – is discharged at the shoreline….”

    They think their sh!t dont stink.

  19. An electric guitar would be inaudible on stage without electricity to the pickup, and thence to the amplifier and speakers.

    Nope:

    Most electric guitars are completely passive. That is, they consume no power, and you don’t have to plug them into a power supply. (Some do have “active” electronics powered by an onboard battery.) The vibration of the strings produces a signal in the pickup coil. That bare, unamplified signal is what comes out of the guitar and into the amp.

    The amp’s job is to take the guitar’s signal and make it audible by boosting it enough to drive a speaker. The fascinating thing about an electric guitar amp is that the amp is actually a part of the instrument.

    https://entertainment.howstuffworks.com/electric-guitar2.htm

  20. I am waiting on the A rated pollsters to drop some US pres approval polls. Hoping the clamour of Democrat 2020 candidates dont get in the way.

  21. Another article
    Near lowest rainfall on the top of highest max temperature anomaly since records began for 2018. Notably the last two decades the MDB appears to have had an average max temp anomaly of >1C over the 1961-1990 average.
    This summer seems to be one of reckoning for the utter mediocrity of Aus governments with regard to inland water over recent decades, only midway through.

    ‘Nature bites back’: Algal blooms trigger mass fish deaths in western NSW
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/environment/sustainability/nature-bites-back-algal-blooms-trigger-mass-fish-deaths-in-western-nsw-20190107-p50q0m.html

  22. An electric guitar would be inaudible on stage without electricity to the pickup

    Incorrect (unless you’re a metalhead with active pickups).

    The electric current is generated by the pickup. It’s in effect a small electricity generator where the movement of a ferrous string in a magnetic field induces a small current in the copper windings around the magnet(s).

  23. Fun discussion on “electric”. I’d rather use an electric- rather an electrified- light, kettle, chair, drill, toothbrush, car, and so on. 🙂

  24. Another case of underpayment

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jan/08/french-arms-manufacturer-thales-underpaid-australian-workers-by-54m

    I do sometimes wonder about these things.

    These people at Thales were not junior casuals being exploited, but even people in management roles who seemingly did not know what they should be receiving.

    Back in the mid 80s I changed jobs within the same industry and noted an error in the first pay I received with the new employer.

    There had been an award change some months previously affecting the way penalty rates were applied and the new employer was not doing this.

    Pay office told me I was wrong, I spoke to the union secretary and I was right.

    Correcting the errors involved going back and checking a lot of pays, not something easily done in those days of manual payrolls.

    The amount was not great, but welcome few hundred dollars for some.

    My grateful colleagues bought me a nice single malt. Not sure bosses were as happy.

    Moral of story? know what you are entitled to and make sure you get it. And dare I say it? Join a union.

  25. An electric guitar would be inaudible on stage without electricity to the pickup, and thence to the amplifier and speakers.

    No electricity is sent to the guitar! The guitar pickup produces the electrical signal itself.

    The pickup contains a permanent magnet that provides the EM “power”. The magnetic field magnetises the strings above it. The vibrating string produces a moving magnetic field which induces an electric current in the pickup coil.

    An analogy is a crystal radio which drives a (sensitive) earpiece directly without any batteries.

  26. Victoria says: Tuesday, January 8, 2019 at 2:22 pm

    PhoenixRed

    I was really hoping that Robert Mueller would have finished tying up loose ends by now.
    After the Kashoggi killing, I guess it was too much to expect.
    The whole Kremlin Saudi, Israel nexus is obviously needing more work.
    Meanwhile as soon as the dems take the house Trump orchestrates a shut down and crisis. You couldn’t make this shit up.

    *********************************************

    For some reason the Mueller report and the middle of February seem related ……. and yes it can’t seem to come all too soon as Trump is now into his start a big crisis to deflect attention and this wall stuff may well get out of hand if he goes all out and declares a ‘national emergency’ tomorrow to give him all sort of powers to ride roughshod over everyone ………. as the cowardly GOP with their thumbs up their bum look on and let the country slide deeper and deeper into chaos ….. Putin must be wetting himself with excitement with his achievements ….

  27. that the amp is actually a part of the instrument.

    Indeed, for those who like me don’t use any (or many) effects, the amp is the bulk of the ‘tone’ (that mythical beast guitarists spend inordinate amounts of time and money chasing). Guitarists will spend as much time lusting over different amps as they do over axes (and effects pedals and pickups and speakers and strings and cables and all the other esoterica that might in some minuscule way affect the holy ‘tone’).

  28. The credits after the Phyllis Diller Show used to have, somewhere between Set Design and Lighting –

    Hair ……. by General Electric

    (if anyone remembers Phyllis Diller)

  29. ratsak @ #2888 Tuesday, January 8th, 2019 – 2:39 pm

    that the amp is actually a part of the instrument.

    Indeed, for those who like me don’t use any (or many) effects, the amp is the bulk of the ‘tone’ (that mythical beast guitarists spend inordinate amounts of time and money chasing). Guitarists will spend as much time lusting over different amps as they do over axes (and effects pedals and pickups and speakers and strings and cables and all the other esoterica that might in some minuscule way affect the holy ‘tone’).

    the speakers are the weakest link.

  30. as the cowardly GOP with their thumbs up their bum look on and let the country slide deeper and deeper into chaos

    I know I shouldn’t be surprised they’ve let this get this far, but I am somewhat shocked. At least the Democrats get a live reply.

    Manu RajuVerified account@mkraju
    48m48 minutes ago
    CNN plans to take the Democratic response live, the network announces; it’s unclear who will deliver the Dem speech

  31. Saw a CNN poll last night and Uncle Joe’s still miles ahead of his contenders – around 31% from memory, but I can’t find it on YouTube. Where’s Phoenix when you need him?

  32. don

    thanks for link

    has the maths extension/4U/1U become more or less difficult over years

    3 hours! to the uninitiated it seems like 3 days

    hard to believe all this covered in two years or less

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *