Poll positioning

Fraught preselections aplenty as the major parties get their houses in order ahead of a looming federal election.

Kicking off a federal election year with an overdue accumulation of preselection news, going back to late November:

• Liberal Party conservative Craig Kelly was last month saved from factional moderate Kent Johns’ preselection challenge in his southern Sydney seat of Hughes, which was widely reported as having decisive support in local party branches. This followed the state executive’s acquiescence to Scott Morrison’s demand that it rubber-stamp preselections for all sitting members of the House of Representatives, also confirming the positions of Jason Falinski in Mackellar, John Alexander in Bennelong and Lucy Wicks in Robertson. Kelly had threatened a week earlier to move to the cross bench if dumped, presumably with a view to contesting the seat as an independent. Malcolm Turnbull stirred the pot by calling on the executive to defy Morrison, noting there had been “such a long debate in the New South Wales Liberal Party about the importance of grass roots membership involvement”. This referred to preselection reforms that had given Johns the edge over Kelly, which had been championed by conservatives and resisted by moderates. Turnbull’s critics noted he raised no concerns when the executive of the Victorian branch guaranteed sitting members’ preselections shortly before he was dumped as Prime Minister.

• The intervention that saved Craig Kelly applied only to lower house members, and was thus of no use to another beleaguered conservative, Senator Jim Molan, who had been relegated a week earlier to the unwinnable fourth position on the Coalition’s ticket. Hollie Hughes and Andrew Bragg were chosen for the top two positions, with the third reserved to the Nationals (who have chosen Perin Davey, owner of a communications consultancy, to succeed retiring incumbent John “Wacka” Williams). Despite anger at the outcome from conservatives in the party and the media, Scott Morrison declined to intervene. Morrison told 2GB that conservatives themselves were to blame for Molan’s defeat in the preselection ballot, as there was “a whole bunch of people in the very conservative part of our party who didn’t show up”.

• Labor’s national executive has chosen Diane Beamer, a former state government minister who held the seats of Badgerys Creek and Mulgoa from 1995 to 2011, to replace Emma Husar in Lindsay. The move scotched Husar’s effort to recant her earlier decision to vacate the seat, after she became embroiled in accusations of bullying and sexual harassment in August. Husar is now suing Buzzfeed over its reporting of the allegations, and is reportedly considering running as an independent. The Liberals have preselected Melissa McIntosh, communications manager for the not-for-profit Wentworth Community Housing.

• The misadventures of Nationals MP Andrew Broad have created an opening in his seat of Mallee, which has been in National/Country Party hands since its creation in 1949, although the Liberals have been competitive when past vacancies have given them the opportunity to contest it. The present status on suggestions the seat will be contested for the Liberals by Peta Credlin, who was raised locally in Wycheproof, is that she is “being encouraged”. There appears to be a view in the Nationals that the position should go to a woman, with Rachel Baxendale of The Australian identifying three potential nominees – Anne Mansell, chief executive of Dried Fruits Australia; Caroline Welsh, chair of the Birchip Cropping Group; and Tanya Chapman, former chair of Citrus Australia – in addition to confirmed starter Anne Warner, a social worker.

• Nationals Senator Bridget McKenzie yesterday scotched suggestions that she might run in Mallee. The view is that she is positioning herself to succeeding Cathy McGowan in Indi if she decides not to recontest, having recently relocated her electorate office from Bendigo to one of Indi’s main population centres, Wodonga. The Liberals last month preselected Steven Martin, a Wodonga-based engineer.

• Grant Schultz, Milton real estate agent and son of former Hume MP Alby Schultz, has been preselected as Liberal candidate for Gilmore on New South Wales’ south coast, which the party holds on a delicate margin of 0.7%. The seat is to be vacated by Ann Sudmalis, whose preselection Schultz was preparing to challenge when she announced her retirement in September. It was reported in the South Coast Register that Joanna Gash, who held the seat from 1996 to 2013 and is now the mayor of Shoalhaven (UPDATE: Turns out Gash ceased to be so as of the 2016 election, and is now merely a councillor), declared herself “pissed off” at the local party’s endorsement of Schultz, which passed by forty votes to nine.

• Hawkesbury councillor Sarah Richards has been preselected as the Liberal candidate in Macquarie, where Labor’s Susan Templeman unseated Liberal member Louise Markus in 2016.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,175 comments on “Poll positioning”

  1. Late Riser @ #2781 Tuesday, January 8th, 2019 – 10:44 am

    I don’t understand why teaching is so undervalued. It has been that for as long as I can remember. As zoomster points out, if a teaching degree is a last resort then that is a symptom not the disease. What though is it a symptom of? Children are the most precious amongst us. Learning is the most precious act any of us can pursue. Teaching in my very limited experience is a joy, albeit it with a healthy dose of frustration. The exploration of ideas and possibilities with fresh minds is a wonderful personal reward. Teaching should be a core value of our society and suitably rewarded.

    So here are my cynical thoughts as to why it is not so.

    (1) Really good teachers are passionate and that passion dominates their personal choices. Those exceptional teachers don’t need to be looked after.
    (2) Good teachers achieve huge results, which even diluted by mediocre teaching are sufficient to maintain our society.
    (3) Teaching is a long term project, that takes years to produce “results”. It is vulnerable to short term thinking.
    (4) Teaching needs resources, which will be provided at the level to sustain our society, and no more.
    (5) A crisis might improve the situation, but only until the earlier equilibrium is restored.
    (6) A cultural shift might also do it, but from what I’ve seen I think that unlikely.

    My conclusion is that we will continue to muddle along with periods of better outcomes followed by periods of worse outcomes. The best we can do is a continual drum beat from a dedicated few. 🙁

    Easy answer. Everyone has gone to school and therefore considers themselves to be an expert on the topic. Those who did badly at school blame the teacher. Those who did well assume all the credit themselves and don’t see the teacher as being of any use to them. This leads to a general devaluing of teachers and teaching in society. We need a cultural shift as well as evidence based policies for improving teaching and student outcomes.

  2. don @ #2751 Tuesday, January 8th, 2019 – 9:56 am

    Here is the 2018 HSC Extension 1 paper. PB’ers may care to have a go at it to refresh their memories.

    https://educationstandards.nsw.edu.au/wps/wcm/connect/8e9f3072-c973-43d9-90d7-c1bea2b136ab/2018-hsc-mathematics-ext-1.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CACHEID=ROOTWORKSPACE-8e9f3072-c973-43d9-90d7-c1bea2b136ab-mrhngT-

    I was doing well in the first section until I got to the combinatorics one. Don’t remember any of that.

    And the trig is quite rusty (and/or never covered the stuff where you use ‘n’ to account for how many revolutions of the unit-circle you’ve accumulated), though 9 looks like it should be either C or D, assuming ‘n’ starts from 0. Would probably go for C on the basis that the sign-change happens every pi radians rather than every pi/2 radians.

    No clue on #10.

    Sure I exceeded the recommended 15 minutes, too.

  3. Confessions

    #SaveRahaf
    @SarahRubyWrites
    Mother, wife, advocate, innovator, researcher, writer. Living and working on Darug land. Likely following you because of your dog.

    Sydney, New South Wales
    Joined December 2016

    Thats the twitter profile

  4. don @ #2797 Tuesday, January 8th, 2019 – 11:06 am

    DaretoTread @ #2789 Tuesday, January 8th, 2019 – 11:53 am

    don @ #2743 Tuesday, January 8th, 2019 – 9:50 am

    DaretoTread @ #2714 Tuesday, January 8th, 2019 – 9:57 am

    don @ #2683 Tuesday, January 8th, 2019 – 8:18 am

    zoomster @ #2677 Tuesday, January 8th, 2019 – 8:56 am

    ..and I repeat: raising ATARs will simply result in a dearth of graduating teachers.

    Students aren’t saying, “I won’t go into teaching because the ATAR is too low”. They’re saying things like “I don’t want to teach, it sucks” or “Teaching doesn’t pay enough.”

    We have a drastic undersupply of Maths and Science teachers now. Raising entry requirements will do nothing to fix that.

    Teaching has to be made a more attractive career – then the rest will follow.

    When I went into teaching, it was the only way I could get an education, despite excellent marks. We simply did not have the money for me to go to university, so I applied for and got a teachers fellowship, starting in year 10.

    Looking back there were other avenues I could have explored – scholarships into engineering or to banks for example, but that was simply not on the radar.

    Maths/science graduates would be foolish to go into teaching if they got a half way decent degree, unless they really wanted to teach, and did not mind the fact that their lifetime income would be far below what it could be in industry or banking. A former HOD of maths in my school went into an actuarial job, for which she was well suited, and got a huge pay increase.

    Don I am a tad puzzled by this comment. You are from NSW and i suspect roughly my age.

    At that time the routes for teachers were university teachers scholarships which involved a standard UG degree, a year at teachers college and 5 years 9or was it 3) being bonded to teach anywhere in NSW as directed. This was the route for kids from poorer families as they recived a very generous stipend. Kids from wealthier families opted for the Commonwealth Scholarship (if awarded) because it opened up wider opportunities eg medicine and Engineering or law.

    I am not aware of any year 10 scholarship program UNLESS you mean the commonwealth scholarship system which was intended to keep bright kids at high school. This was not just for teaching and indeed of the 6 who won them at my school only 1 became a teacher.

    However perhaps there was some year 10 scheme in the catholic system.

    I am here to tell you that I was interviewed in year 10, and got a small allowance as a prospective teacher, which my father pocketed, during years 11 and 12. I was in a state high school.

    Ok Don

    I am not sure of the year etc.

    What i KNOW is that there was in 1969 a two year Commonwealth scholarship scheme which provided some sort of allowance which i assume my parents pocketed. it was awarded by an examination given in year 9 which was I guess pretty much like the Qld Core skills test in format. I remember it being interesting.

    There were also various bursary schemes of which i knew nothing as they were means tested and you needed to apply.

    Now as to the university entrance i am SURE of those so if there is dispue i am happy to take you on.

    i have a rather good memory for that sort of detail (i can recall where every class member sat in year 12), so i accept the challenge. of course it may change from year to year.

    My brother was just three years older but was in the older 5 year high school system and at a time when some high school teachers did just a two year diploma.

    One of his friends – another younger boy who graduated high school at 16 and teachers college at 18 started work in a high school in the country at the grand old age of 18 yrs and 1 month. He had female students older than he was (the 6 yr high school scheme had arrived) and complained that he could NOT go out with any girl in the town, given they were all his students.

    Take me on?

    For chrissake I was there! Do you seriously think I don’t know what happened?

    Don

    If you were less emotional and able to read, you would have realised i was talking NSW and that would have been all you needed to say rather than carrying on like an narky and rather off pork chop.

    I have worked out you were in Qld. So yep i suspect there were such schemes. indeed my own grandfather was employed by qld education department and the grand old age of 12 as a pupil teacher.

    So cut the snark – unnecessary and divisive and mildy bullying or more to the point opens the doors to the bullying attack dogs.

    FWIW I once had a boss who accused me of having memory failure due to age because i disputed his opinion about when a certain restaurant opened, and actually put it into a written complaint. Given it was the first real “restaurant” date i had ever had and was er the precursor to more intimate firsts, it was NOT a date i was going to confuse. The idiot arrogant man was not willing to have his opinion on such a matter disputed. Funny that just possibly you reminded me a tad of him.

  5. guytaur @ #2804 Tuesday, January 8th, 2019 – 9:14 am

    Confessions

    #SaveRahaf
    @SarahRubyWrites
    Mother, wife, advocate, innovator, researcher, writer. Living and working on Darug land. Likely following you because of your dog.

    Sydney, New South Wales
    Joined December 2016

    Thats the twitter profile

    Your original comment had the person’s twitter name misspelled.

  6. It’s Time

    Everyone has gone to school and therefore considers themselves to be an expert on the topic.

    That is a very good point. It wasn’t until I had to do some teaching that my eyes were opened to challenges and the rewards. I’ll add your point to the list. And perhaps there is a glimmer of a solution to the cultural shift in your point. I was exposed to the techniques of teaching in year 12 at high school. I had to prepare lesson plans and teach a 30 minute subject once a week to fellow students 2 and 3 years younger than me.

  7. Late Riser says:
    Tuesday, January 8, 2019 at 11:44 am
    I don’t understand why teaching is so undervalued.

    It suggests that low values are also applied to learning and to the care of children. Certainly, child-bearing, child-rearing and child-protection have always been feminised. This is characteristic of a conservative, patriarchal order.

    Perhaps part of the problem is that most education is socially-funded and is not-for-profit. Widespread education is opposed by the reactionaries of the Right, for whom education is a preserve of the male elite.

    I spend one weekday each week looking after my grand-daughter. I work on the weekend so I can keep up with things and bring in the money I still need. Many people still react with some surprise when I tell them why I’m not available on those weekdays. Child-care is not a highly valued pursuit in social and economic terms. It is seen as an obstruction to real work. (Of course, for mine, I would happily give up everything else to be with my grand-child. I have no happier hours than those I spend with her.)

  8. don
    I don’t think we have extension maths in SA. We have grade 12 Specialist Maths but SACE doesn’t list Extension maths as a topic. My nephew is doing extension maths in Nsw this year.

  9. DTT

    Your memory isn’t as good as you think. High schools in Queensland went from 4 year (grades 9 to 12) to 5 year (grades 8 to 12) in about 1966.

    The Commonwealth scholarship test was done in grade 10, not 9.

    Yes, there were 2 year trained teachers, 3 year trained teachers (via teachers college) and 4 year trained teachers (single year post grad course). Each worked in different incremental pay scales.

  10. briefly

    Yes. Total agreement with your comment re the feminisation of child care. (I was also thinking of the nursing profession when I wrote some of my comment.) Something that struck me even as a child was that you start out being taught mainly by women in the lower grades and end up being taught mainly by men. A trend that for me continued into university.

  11. It’s Time @ #2812 Tuesday, January 8th, 2019 – 11:28 am

    DTT

    Your memory isn’t as good as you think. High schools in Queensland went from 4 year (grades 9 to 12) to 5 year (grades 8 to 12) in about 1966.

    The Commonwealth scholarship test was done in grade 10, not 9.

    Yes, there were 2 year trained teachers, 3 year trained teachers (via teachers college) and 4 year trained teachers (single year post grad course). Each worked in different incremental pay scales.

    hm

    Not quite right.

    First I made no comment at all about Qld schools. i was only ever talking NSW. The system changed such that 1968 was the first year when the 6 year students graduated.

    You are right about the Comm schol test – sorry my bad.

    As to the teacher training it was pretty state based and I am only familiar with the NSW system, which itself changed from a system of two year training to three year training about the same time as they added a year of high school. I think when I first went to university there were still two year teacher’s college courses and four year trained teachers but I am not certain. But i did know many, may who were doing the four year course (some did five pikcing up an honours degree)

  12. A friend of mine went to his boss and said that he’d like to reduce his hours to spend more time at home with his children.

    He said that if he’d walked in and said he was actively conspiring to undermine his boss and take his job he would have met with a more understanding response.

    From that moment, it was clear he had no future at the company, so he ended up starting up his own consultancy.

  13. briefly

    Of course, for mine, I would happily give up everything else to be with my grand-child. I have no happier hours than those I spend with her.

    This deserves a separate response. You are a very fortunate man. 🙂

  14. Mein Gott !! There are some who dare not only to think of such an unthinkable (in the US) thought there are some actively pushing for it. From NYT.

    Workers on Corporate Boards? Germany’s Had Them for Decades

    ………………….Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, who recently announced her bid for president, introduced a bill last year to give workers the right to vote for two-fifths of all corporate board seats, with a companion bill in the House by Representatives introduced by Ben Ray Luján of New Mexico. A similar bill by Senator Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin would entitle workers to elect one-third of the seats.
    https://outline.com/zkmV5D

  15. By and large, teachers don’t directly generate money for big corporations, their managers and owners, unlike more ‘prestigious’ and highly paid professions / occupations like accountants, bankers, lawyers, some scientists (in applied science not pure research), geology (mining) etc etc.

    If it doesn’t turn short term profits, it’s not valued.

  16. poroti @ #2821 Tuesday, January 8th, 2019 – 11:39 am

    give workers the right to vote for two-fifths of all corporate board seats

    Is the intent that 40% of the seats are set aside such that only the workers get to choose who gets them?

    Or that for 40% of the seats, the workers can vote alongside of everybody else who would normally be allowed to vote for those seats?

  17. poroti @ #2821 Tuesday, January 8th, 2019 – 11:39 am

    Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, who recently announced her bid for president, introduced a bill last year to give workers the right to vote for two-fifths of all corporate board seats, with a companion bill in the House by Representatives introduced by Ben Ray Luján of New Mexico. A similar bill by Senator Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin would entitle workers to elect one-third of the seats.
    https://outline.com/zkmV5D

    Good read. Thanks.

  18. ‘Higher taxes to pay for Labor reform’
    RICK MORTON

    The Coalition slams Labor proposal to reform mutual obligations in the welfare system, saying it wants to “junk” the principle.

    So it looks like EVERYTHING Labor does from now until the election is this higher taxes meme.

    Shorten farts and it will cause higher taxes.Shorten has questions to answer will cause higher taxes.

  19. Late Riser says:
    Tuesday, January 8, 2019 at 12:37 pm
    briefly

    Of course, for mine, I would happily give up everything else to be with my grand-child. I have no happier hours than those I spend with her.

    This deserves a separate response. You are a very fortunate man. 🙂

    Indeed, I am.

    I’m very proud to report that she’s a rocker. She can not-quite walk unassisted, but she can dance. She stands by herself so she can clap with the music; taps her feet; moves her body in time, swaying and bobbing; rocking her head from side to side. Her favourites are Nina Simone and John Lee Hooker, who she will watch intently. She goes looking for my phone and gets my attention, telling me in her way that she wants some YouTube. A delight. An absolute delight.

    She was tired yesterday afternoon and did not want to sit up by herself to eat. So I put her on my knee and fed her one bite at time. A slice of banana. A raspberry. A slice of banana. A black currant. A slice of banana, sweet-ripe. She ate from my fingers. When she’d had enough she stopped eating and then started to pick up the remaining fruit and fed it to me, a bite at time, from her hand to my mouth. She had an approving look on her face each time. Very, very beautiful.

  20. a r

    In Germany there is a quota and the workers vote for who gets those seats. All pretty unimaginable in the US, even more so than universal health care 😆

  21. steve davis

    Predictable. However its also predictable that Labor has taken note of the polls. Voters are happy with higher taxes to pay for services.

    This is where with compulsory voting the GOP tactic of cutting taxes fails.

    The funny thing is the US public seems to be catching on.

  22. It’s Time @ #2830 Tuesday, January 8th, 2019 – 12:57 pm

    Greensborough Growler @ #2828 Tuesday, January 8th, 2019 – 11:53 am

    Seems like the Givernment is assisting the young Saudi woman contrary to inaccurate reports on PB.

    https://twitter.com/i/status/1082452405592109056

    Ughh, you made me touch skynews. Out with the solvol.

    I find the best disinfectant is listen to the information and draw your conclusions based on that and your experiences and judgement.

    But obviously you find rinsing your hands, sticking your fingers in your ear, shutting your eyes and screaming “I’m not listening’ will protect you from the GollyMurdoch.

  23. Follow the money and you find —

    The creep who built that hideous Venetian Hotel in Vegas*,

    with its has-to-be-seen-to-be-believed tacky ‘Grand Canal’, and its nauseating scented air-conditioning like some eternal hell in a public toilet, swiped credit cards deducting large amounts as security credit on check-in to be then hit with false damage claims all but impossible to dispute because you forgot to take photos of everything, and is there any more illegitimate way to get rich than gambling, must ask James,

    and his devout wife Miriam, who allegiance to Israel knows no bounds, who drove the embassy move, takes over the press and takes it more righter, and religious schools, and still finds time to attend to drug addicts in Vegas, with the money from gambling addicts, but that’s OK.

    The Adelsons :

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jan/07/meet-dr-miriam-adelson-the-record-breaking-republican-donor-driving-trumps-israel-policy

    (* several years of CES (Consumer Electronics Show) exhibitions later – we didn’t stay there, but had to exhibit there.)

  24. Maude Lynne, please stop making stuff up! I am a practicing teacher, who supervised three Student teachers last year. There are no instructions from universities to not fail students. Universities have zero control over teaching round assessments, as it is all down to the supervising teacher.

  25. Courier Mail

    MEMBER for Maranoa David Littleproud has confirmed he has separated from his wife of 20 years, as he prepares to re-contest his seat in the federal election this year.

    Mr Littleproud confirmed he and wife Sarah, who have three young boys together, had been estranged for “some months”.

    “It is an amicable split,” Mr Littleproud said.

    “My wife Sarah and I have been separated for some time but it is not from a third party.”

    Ms Littleproud’s name has since been removed from the biography on her husband’s parliamentary website but mention of their sons Tom, Hugh and Harry remains.

    It is understood the children currently attend school in Warwick, where the family has lived for the past 17 years.

    In a previous interview with the Warwick Daily News, Mr Littleproud described himself as a family man with “conservative values”.

    The Daily News contacted Ms Littleproud, who declined to comment saying it was a sensitive issue for her children.

    “I am a private person and I don’t want to be involved,” Ms Littleproud said.
    Warwick Golf Club women’s president Judy Lester, club member Mary Young, David Littleproud and his family Hugh, Sarah, Harry and Tom after the presentation of a new Australian flag.

    The couple were married in 1999 and Ms Littleproud runs two businesses in Warwick.

    The personal revelations have surfaced in the midst of robust social media exchanges and following a period of uncertainty about whether Mr Littleproud would be re-endorsed to represent the National Party of Australia in the upcoming federal election.

    The Agricultural Minister’s name was left off a list of members to re-contest their seats at a LNP state council meeting in November, but Mr Littleproud has since been re-endorsed as the candidate for Maranoa.

    He said it would be an honour to represent his electorate for another term.

  26. DTT
    I was one of the unfortunate batch who were the first year to go to sixth form in NSW under the Wyndham Scheme and to undertake the first HSC. The year was 1967, not 1968.

    I know, because I was there.

  27. clem attlee says:
    Tuesday, January 8, 2019 at 1:06 pm
    Maude Lynne, please stop making stuff up! I am a practicing teacher, who supervised three Student teachers last year. There are no instructions from universities to not fail students. Universities have zero control over teaching round assessments, as it is all down to the supervising teacher.

    I assure you, clem, that the institution I am associated with does everything it can to discourage teachers from failing their prac students.
    It’s not impossible, but made exceedingly difficult.
    Wtte “if you believe your student is at risk of failing then contact (the uni) immediately”

    Clearly the institution that supplied your trainee teachers does not do this, but mine does.

  28. How can they? Teachers are in no way affiliated with the universities. Teachers supervising pre practice teachers operate independently of the universities. I have taught for over 31 years in a range of schools supervising student teachers across that period and have never had any interference in my assessments. None of my colleagues have either. If they ever did, we would black ball that particular institution and no student from there would ever be supervised by our school. The notion you expressed is nonsense.

  29. Wasn’t Trump supposed to have started his speech 20 minutes ago? I’m assuming he hasn’t yet, as the anticipated flood of stupid and racist Trump quotes hasn’t appeared. Or has the world been stunned into silence?

  30. Oliver DarcyVerified account@oliverdarcy
    1h1 hour ago
    JUST IN: @SpeakerPelosi and @SenSchumer say in joint statement that “Democrats must immediately be given equal airtime” to address the country now that networks are airing Trump’s border security address tomorrow.

  31. a r @ #2845 Tuesday, January 8th, 2019 – 1:21 pm

    Wasn’t Trump supposed to have started his speech 20 minutes ago? I’m assuming he hasn’t yet, as the anticipated flood of stupid and racist Trump quotes hasn’t appeared. Or has the world been stunned into silence?

    He’s busy checking a few legalities, as bizzaro and novel as that may seem.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-01-08/donald-trump-plans-prime-time-address-and-visit-to-mexico-border/10696522

    And anyway, wasn’t Mexico going to pay for the wall. What happened to that little brain fart.

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