Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Reasonably good personal ratings are the only consolation Scott Morrison can take from another diabolical poll result.

The Guardian reports the Coalition’s recovery in Essential Research a fortnight ago has proved shortlived – Labor has gained two points on two-party preferred to lead 54-46, returning to where they were the poll before last. Both major parties are up on the primary vote, Labor by four points to 39% and the Coalition by one to 38%. We will have to wait on the full report later today for the minor parties. The monthly personal ratings have Scott Morrison up one on approval to 42% and down three on disapproval to 34%, while Bill Shorten is down three to 35% and down one to 43%. Morrison leads 40-29 as preferred prime minister, barely changed on 41-29 last time.

Also featured are questions on Labor’s dividend imputation policies and negative gearing policies. The former had the support of 39% and the opposition of 30%. On restricting negative gearing to new homes, 24% said it would reduce house prices; 21% said it would increase them; and 27% believed it would make no difference. Thirty-seven per cent believed it would lead to higher rents, 14% to lower rents and 24% make no difference. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1032.

UPDATE: Full report here. Greens down one to 10%, One Nation down one to 6%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,545 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

  1. “It does. Fantastic depth of knowledge you are demonstrating.”

    As a South Australian, I only need to go and look at the Murray to see what kind of water management system we have. Functionally: none.

    If you need to add the words “functional” or “effective” or “actively policed” into my earlier comment to make sense of it, go right ahead.

  2. Both major parties have been taken over by their right wings and the greens are off the reservation.

    What a disaster Australian politics has become.

  3. Shame, Labor. Shame.

    Not only did they vote against their own policy and allowed corporations to over-ride democracy via the TPP, they have now given the green light to turn it into a police state.

    Shame, Labor. Shame.

  4. ‘swamprat says:
    Thursday, December 6, 2018 at 6:50 pm

    I buy local Nimbin rice. Grown just with rainfall, i.e. without any irrigation. It is my favourite rice.

    It is stupid to grow rice irrigated in a semi-desert in the driest continent.’

    Quite axiomatic! Religious mantras abound.

    Uh huh. And you plan would be to do what in Australia?
    There are direct impacts of this bit of NIMBYism, BTW.
    World hunger is directly related to, and extremely sensitive to, global agricultural commodity prices.
    (I assume that cotton clothing would have a similar relationship).
    We know that Australian rice and cotton is cheaper than overseas rice and cotton.
    World agriculture pretty well covers the globe. There is no land going to waste. The only way to add half a million hectares of cotton overseas is forest clearing. Or subtract it from food commodity crops.

  5. I’d really like to hear from those who were telling us about Labor’s genius earlier and about how they weren’t ‘really’ passing the encryption bill…

  6. “We offer to let it go forward, without the amendments which are needed…provided the government agrees on the very first sitting day, to pass the amendments we say are needed.”

    So Labor will pass the bill, unamended on the proviso the government allows the amendments to go through in February.

    But for two months those “needed” amendments will not be part of the legislation.

    Not exactly the greatest pobedobesie I’ve ever seen.

    Dunno about “bobajobski”, but the phrase “enough rope” comes to mind.

    Use the legislation as it stands? “This is why the amendments are needed.”
    Renege on the deal? “The Morrison government can’t be trusted.”
    etc.

  7. Barney in Go Dau @ #2155 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 6:02 pm

    Well the best you can say about it is the same result as if the one Green amendment was passed, but it comes in sooner. 🙁

    …and without forcing the government to also consider the Nauru bill at the same time.

    Whatever agreement Labor extracted from the Coalition to pass the “needed” amendments on the next sitting day won’t be worth the paper it’s printed on.

  8. BW
    Why not export the problem overseas to a country that has oodles of water? There are very rainy areas of Qld where rice and cotton grow easily but forcing it on the plains of NSW is bad policy. They are products we can easily import.

  9. Christ, how weak does this make Shorten look? Will Labor never learn?

    The disengaged punters will now absorb:

    1. Libs blame Labor for obstruction of legislation about scary brown terrorists
    2. Labor comes out and all but apologises and promises to pass the legislation

    FFS, the reasonable and politically smart position was to leave Morrison hanging. If he cared, he would have passed the amendments, but he wanted to avoid the humiliation of the Nauru amendments so he exposed you all to the risk of terror attacks (according to his own argument), etc etc.

    Since Keating left Labor has been far too weak about these things.

  10. This is truly dreadful strategy from Shorto. This government is on the ropes and you’re just wilting to them.

    This makes it look as if they were right.

  11. If (gods forbid it), there actually is a terrorist incident over the Xmas break, it will prove once and for all what a sham the AABill was in the first place.

    It will do nothing to prevent an attack but it does give the authorities to spy on “real enemies of the state”, such as protesting school children, unions, GetUp and any other organisation fighting for progressive causes.

  12. ‘Diogenes says:
    Thursday, December 6, 2018 at 7:05 pm

    BW
    Why not export the problem overseas to a country that has oodles of water? There are very rainy areas of Qld where rice and cotton grow easily but forcing it on the plains of NSW is bad policy. They are products we can easily import.’

    Of course we can easily import rice and cotton. We are a filthy rich nation. That would be imported rice that the poorest people in the world would not be eat. As noted, the number of starving people in the world is highly sensitive to traded food commodity prices. And food commodity prices are highly sensitive to supply.

    I would be curious to know which half a million hectares of Queensland you propose to clear for rice growing and cotton growing, which dams you will build and where and how you will completely rebuild the required infrastructure for growing, harvesting, processing, storing and transporting.

    The Northern Food Bowl is like the Inland Sea and the Bradfield Scheme.

  13. All I can think of is that Shorten doesnt want to be blamed in case there is a terrorist attack by the MSM/right wing commentators. Maybe its just as well its the Xmas break.

  14. The Guardian:

    Oh it looks like the Greens are trying to move Labor’s amendments, and force them to vote against them,

    Mathias Cormann has stepped in to try and stop the Greens from moving the amendments.

    The chamber divides.

    It’s Labor and the government voting against it

  15. So when it comes to being screwed by the Gs or avoiding a Lib wedge, Labor has chosen not to be wedged by the Liberals. Makes sense. Never ever put yourself in a position where the Gs will decide your fate. They will certainly slit your throat.

    The Gs vote with the Liberals to stymie Labor….today, as ever…

  16. Player One @ #2172 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 4:10 pm

    By all means deal yourself out of the game. Leave it to others to decide, since they are clearly more capable and better informed 🙁

    Better informed than Boerwar, the founder of the Informal Party? You have a point there.

    No, I will continue to fight for progressive causes via GetUp, as the major parties, the minors and independents no longer offer a viable choice.

    Not out of the game at all.

  17. ‘Astrobleme says:
    Thursday, December 6, 2018 at 6:56 pm

    Boerwar

    Yet again, idiocy:
    “The Greens notion that we can fix our water use by exporting the problem overseas is totally out of synch with numerous Greens policy statements with their emphasis on internationalism and multilateralism.”

    I mean what does this even mean? It’s just nonsense.’

    It means that numerous Greens policies stress the international nature of our world and call for international responses and responsibility.
    The NIMBY notion that we can export our environmental management problems is therefore directly to the usual Greens policy stance on these matters.
    It is a bit like letting everyone else cut their greenhouse gas emissions while we increase ours and send our coal overseas.

  18. Brilliant strategy – hand the government a win on their police state legislation without getting the kids off Nauru.

    This is sort of thing that makes you think maybe, just maybe, Labor could still claw defeat from the jaws of victory next election.

  19. Shortens personal polling

    Pegasus @ #2180 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 7:19 pm

    The Guardian:

    Oh it looks like the Greens are trying to move Labor’s amendments, and force them to vote against them,

    Mathias Cormann has stepped in to try and stop the Greens from moving the amendments.

    The chamber divides.

    It’s Labor and the government voting against it

    Labor is voting against their own amendments ??

    Unbelievable.

  20. “Brilliant strategy – hand the government a win on their police state legislation without getting the kids off Nauru.”

    Exactly, been posting this all day but apparently I don’t see the subtle long game that Bill and the gang are playing here. Or they’ll fix it later when they definitely win the election despite looking weak as piss and despite never doing that in the past. Or something.

  21. BW
    Queensland is already farming cotton and rice. They just keep doing it as they have the right conditions. It’s like an ETS but for water. Some places are efficient enough and others aren’t put they have to pay an appropriate cost for water, same as for CO2 production.

  22. “The Gs are the greatest frauds ever seen in Australian politics. They are a hoax.”

    Amazing that people are still posting this trash while Labor votes against its own amendments and in favour of legislation it regards as fundamentally flawed.

  23. Dan Gulberry @ #2196 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 7:27 pm

    What’s unbelievable about it? They voted against their own stated policy and allowed the TPP to go through unamended, despite being given the chance to vote for amendments that were in line with its stated policy.

    It seems that as Labor inches closer to the government benches, they become more like the government they are seeking to displace 🙁

  24. Rex Douglas @ #2189 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 3:21 pm

    Shortens personal polling

    Pegasus @ #2180 Thursday, December 6th, 2018 – 7:19 pm

    The Guardian:

    Oh it looks like the Greens are trying to move Labor’s amendments, and force them to vote against them,

    Mathias Cormann has stepped in to try and stop the Greens from moving the amendments.

    The chamber divides.

    It’s Labor and the government voting against it

    Labor is voting against their own amendments ??

    Unbelievable.

    Just like the Greens proposing amendments they weren’t going to support, eh!

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