At last, a statewide Victorian poll result – and it suggests the betting markets might have been on to something in their move to Labor. The YouGov Galaxy poll for the Herald Sun gives Labor a 53-47 lead on two-party preferred, which compares with a result of almost exactly 52-48 in 2014. The two parties are reportedly both on 40% of the primary vote – as Kevin Bonham observes, this would be more indicative of a result of 54-46, which raises the possibility (though by no means the certainty) the the Greens are down. More to follow. UPDATE: Actually, the Greens are a solid 11%. Daniel Andrews leads Matthew Guy as preferred premier by 47-35.
UPDATE: In a spirit of long-awaited buses arriving all at once, The Age has a uComms/ReachTEL poll, conducted yesterday evening from 1239 respondents, which concurs with YouGov Galaxy in recording something of a Labor blowout. Labor leading 39% to 36% on the primary vote, with the Greens on 10.4%, which converts into 54-46 on two-party preferred, presumably on the basis of respondent-allocated preferences. Nothing further on the primary vote yet, but Labor leads 53-47 as best party on population and 56.6-43.3 on cost of living (The Age report seems inconsistent in its approach to rounding), while the Coalition leads 52-48 on crime.
max: That is…not helpful.
The Greens can say that the Labor Party is nothing but a watered down Liberal Party, if that is what they want to say.
Or they can say that the Greens and Labor should work together in centre-left solidarity.
The problem is that they alternately say one or the other, or both at the same time, depending on what suits their agenda at the time. It looks opportunistic and shallow, because it is.
Our politics should be nuanced enough that you can make both points when you’re talking about different issues.
I din’t see anything from the Greens saying that the ALP is the same and the libs when it comes to the injecting room or safe schools, but when it comes to logging old growth forests is a fair claim to make.
Our politics should be nuanced enough that you can make both points when you’re talking about different issues.
I didn’t see anything from the Greens saying that the ALP is the same and the libs when it comes to the injecting room or safe schools, but when it comes to logging old growth forests is a fair claim to make.
Rebecca,
The Greens are not Labor’s friends or a kindred spirit.
They are parasites with an arrogant, self righteous self belief which defies reality.
One day you will realise this is true.
If the greens think ALP is the same as the the Libs they need to take a look in the mirror.
Supporting height limits to appease wealthy NIMBYs, amending planning schemes in the LC to protect property values and stopping tram super stops which help disabled people.
They go missing in the bush, have no prescience in the urban growth areas and live a lovely right wing lifestyle. Please….
They might well be all of those things – but they also vote with Labor in parliament when it matters.
James Purcell didn’t on a bunch of key bills – and even in the times that he did needed far too much bloody coaxing to do the right thing. And this time is going to be worse.
I care about results. I explicitly set out to put the Greens as low as I could this election because I’m particularly angry with them – and they still wound up in my top 15 BTL because I’d hit a point where every other party was going to vote against my interests on legislation I care about.
I’m in Western Metro, where Labor and all the preference feeders have gone to the Aussie Battler Party: I feel that it’s unproductive (and unprogressive) to install a party who wants to deport migrant families if someone commits a crime just because the Greens are arrogant and self-righteous. That’s just wrong. (And that’s just one example – not even getting into all the other things that I value that they hate.)
Rebecca,
You can feel whatever you like.
That’s just a horrifying response to your vote electing the Aussie Battler Party. These things have actual consequences for people’s lives.
That reminds me.
What is the difference between Greens and feral cats?
Rebecca,
You’ll get over it!
It’s better than a Greens Member who will always let you down.
Alright. Time to put our reputations on the line.
My prediction is Labor 47; dribs and drabs the rest.
BW,
One’s a deadly animal that is ruthless in killing and the other one is a pussy cat.
BW,
I’m more confident than that!
Just lucky I’ve already voted. Witnessing hardcore Labor supporters who would honestly rather elect MPs who are basically neo-Nazis over Greens is a reminder of how abhorrent Labor can be at times.
@Boarwar
48 ALP, Caulfied as a seat to watch that may surprise on the night.
Rebecca,
Doo Dah!
Rebecca @ #212 Friday, November 23rd, 2018 – 9:30 pm
Hyperbowl, much? 🙂
I’m ready. Are you!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=680NlRI3v2I
Trent regarding Prahran, I agree Liberal should never be Favourite, Its more likely that an underpaid trader at Sportsbet sees the greens bad news in Media and sees Liberals came 2nd in 2o14 and cuts Liberals as they were 2nd, rather than thinking whoever was 2nd to Liberals at 1st ballot this time will more than likely win, and at this juncture it will be Labour, Cannot see Liberals getting 43-45% on 1st Ballot, which they need to have any chance of getting seat. The value out of any of the prices on offer whatever you say is 4.50 greens in the seat, that’s blatantly too big I make it around 2.15 Labour, 3.20 Liberals and 3.20 Greens
Newspoll 53.5-46.5 TPP to Labor.
49 ALP, 3 Greens (gain Brunswick, lose Prahran) is my prediction.
George
“They do everything they can to win seats from the Labor Party.”
———
This is so hilariously funny.
Here is a Labor supporter (georgie?) saying that they are horrified, ney scandalised. that another party should attempt to win seats from them!!!!
God, talk about entitled.
The Labor Party, like the their Liberal mates (pretends to) believe in “competition”.
Georgie, Maybe you have been asleep for 30 years but the Labor party has become a capitalist enabler. It is a party of “tricklers”.
It has not citicised or questioned capitalism for 30+ years. It strips funding from the poorest.
It challenges NOTHING fundamental in our failed economic system.
It pretends that being a me-too American colony, a”liberal” capitalist party, provides answers to anything. (or at least to a successful personal career).
It spreads the lie that this is being “independent”.
Like the Rudd-Gillard Governments, the Shorten Government will reverse nothing of the Howard-Abbott-Turnbull destruction of the common wealth.
I thought capitalists (pretended to) thrive on competition.
As with your complaint, and like Coles, Woolworths, Murdoch, Banksters etc, you actually do everything to prevent competition.
So be a little more gracious.
Good theory Donski, I agree that’s probably exactly how a lot of people are looking at the Liberals’ chances in Prahran. Reality is they lost with a 44.8% primary vote and there’s no way they’ll improve on that. I think 40% is closer to what they’ll get this time.
On another note that Newspoll is exactly the average of Galaxy and Reachtel so that’s some pretty consistent polling…
P.S.
I am not a Greens Supporter.
While I agree with many of their policies. They seem to me to be a bunch of liberal identity obsessed inner-city wankers. 🙂
Greetings from Canada where our own Greens are forever bedevilling the political landscape.
The Greens have never elected more than a single MP here, nor any significant number of provincial legislators. They seldom poll more than 4% of the vote but election after election they siphon enough of the so-called progressive vote to elect numerous Conservative MPs.
In 2011, for example, our most regressive Prime Minister, Stephen Harper, owed his majority (achieved on 38% of the popular vote) to Greens splitting the vote in a dozen constituencies.
And yet there seems to be only slight ideological differences between the Greens and the NDP (our social Democratic Party) or the left wing of our Liberals.
At least you in Australia have a preferential voting system that limits the damage the Greens can do.
On balance the Greens are a positive detriment to progressive politics in Canada. From reading these posts it seems the same can be said for Australia.
Good luck in your election.
So Matthew Guy loses tomorrow and gets dumped by the Liberals.
I can’t name a single Liberal contender for the leadership.
Morgan Poll
http://createsend.com/t/j-2B0C72C8C2BD10032540EF23F30FEDED
(haven’t read it yet, talks about the way early voters have cast their votes)
..okay, so Libs more likely to cast early votes, those who have already voted favour Labor 53%, those who are still to vote favour Labor 55%.
“Over 40% of Victorian electors say they have already cast a vote for tomorrow’s Victorian Election and the voting patterns of Victorians who have already voted favours the ALP Government on a two-party preferred basis ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47%. Support for the ALP on a two-party preferred basis increases even further for those Victorian electors who say they will vote on Saturday: ALP 55% cf. L-NP 45%
…
This special SMS Morgan Poll was conducted today (Friday November 23, 2018) with a State-wide cross-section of 1,469 Victorian electors aged 18+
…
For Victorian electors who have already voted support for the ALP is on 40%, L-NP on 35%, Greens on 12% and Independents/Others also on 13%. After distributing preferences of supporters of the Greens, Independents and Others this translates into a two-party preferred result favouring the ALP 53% cf. L-NP 47%.
Those who say they will vote on election day are slightly less likely to vote for the major parties than those who’ve already voted. 39% of Victorian electors say they will vote for the ALP and 32% say they will vote for the L-NP. Support amongst those voting on election day is higher for the Greens at 13% and support for Independents/Others increases to 16%.”
http://www.roymorgan.com/~/media/files/findings%20pdf/2010s/2018/december/7814-victorian-election-eve-voting-intention-november-23-2018.pdf
Not sure how Morgan calculate 2PP, but i would have expected something like;
ALP + 85% GRN + 50% Oth = 40 + (12*0.85) + (13*0.5) = 56.7
I have not changed my prediction all week
Labor 48, Coalition 35, Greens 3, Independents 2
Seats changing hands –
Northcote – Labor gain from Greens
Brunswick – Greens gain from Labor
Ripon – Labor gain from Liberal
South Barwon – Labor gain from Liberal
One more independent to win a Coalition seat – can’t nominate which
The Greens are toxic to Labor – a fact well understood by Labor and seeing Labor confirming they will never govern with the Greens
When Crosby went to the UK to run the Tory election campaign he was successful because he focused on Labour needing the Scottish to govern – so the Scots would control Westminster, the British seat of government
And that strategy was successful
Ditto in Australia with the line “Vote for Labor and you get a Greens Government” is the line – including in Victoria with reference to a minority Labor Government courtesy of Greens support in the Lower House
This is a carefully scripted message by the Coalition and there media supporters – even in the face of polling showing as it is
The talk is still of a minority government – deliberately
Because it is still viewed that there is hope that the electorate which, apart from a specific and small demographic who are “out there” compared to 90% or more of the community, will be turned off by the Greens being anywhere near the levers of government
So they talk up minority – and the need to accomodate the Greens to form government
The Greens are merely a plaything of the Liberal Party and used for that purpose
Hence the Liberals not standing in seats in search of being able to discredit any Labor government by associating it with any reliance on the Greens to govern
The Liberals are in trouble because of right wing ideology and subscribing to austerity delivering confidence – a key plank in the trickle down economic agenda
And the Greens are giving them a get out of jail card
That is the only thing the Greens are useful for – so a plaything for the Liberal Party exclusively
I would not be surprised if the Liberals are funding the Greens, as they did with the DLP
I will say 51, i think there will be a bigger swing in regions than the city, and Greens will lose Melbourne.
Oz article on Newspoll:
https://www.outline.com/fHb8hL
The Greens took Prahran off the Liberals. Most of their next gains could be from the Liberals. We might soon see the day that the Greens take Hawthorn or somewhere on the surf coast from the Liberals. I think though the ALP might however have cracked the code somewhat by getting more Ged Kearney clones and less David Feeneys/Michael Danbys to run for these progressive seats. The ALP should be riding a wave of popularity for actually getting s#it done rather than proposing to sell our s#it off and thus should win easily. Forest Hill and Burwood are my seats to watch out East.
For some reason, the discussion on this thread reminds me of religious fanatics who are prepared to tolerate infidels but think heretics should be burned alive. Can’t think why. Must be just me.
Anyway…
Labor to gain Prahran.
Greens to gain Brunswick
Labor to gain one, maybe two seats from the Coalition if they’re lucky. But I’m not sure which ones.
My prediction is ALP will win Northcote, Prahran, South Barwon, Ripon, Bass and Burwood.
Brunswick will be close.
Bayswater is my seat to watch.
I will make one prediction: the micro-parties will get double the Legislative Council votes and seats of the Greens.
The Greens will be outraged that yet again they have been deprived of the balance of power in a democratic vote and demand that the voting system be changed to stop the micro-party voters from being represented – as they attempted with the Senate.
The softening up process has already begun:
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/hinch-says-preference-whisperer-may-have-worked-against-him-20181116-p50gjd.html,
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/victoria-s-upper-house-heads-into-the-great-unknown-20181116-p50gly.html,
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/below-the-line-how-to-make-the-most-of-your-preferences-20181117-p50gok.html and
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/preference-reform-urgent-mp-says/news-story/914aad52ffe5cc1462e59b29a6bbf171.
I have been playing around with the ABC’s election calculator, putting in various numbers. No matter how many different percentages I try, a micro-party wins in every region, and the Greens lose some seats they currently hold. This is for the not at all complicated reason that large numbers of voters support the micro-parties, which dare to exchange preferences with one another.
While I support group voting tickets in principle, there is a political argument too: the Victorian ALP does not want the Greens to have the balance of power and has used its tickets in four elections now to stop that happening, so one would think it is unlikely to fall for their campaign after the election, but I am not so confident that it will resist the media hysteria this time. You all know the drill: micro-party candidates winning from low primary votes is a disgrace to democracy, while major party candidates doing winning from even smaller primary votes, as they have been doing since 1949 in the Senate and since 2006 in the Legislative Council, is not worth even a passing comment.
Some reforms are needed, but the abolition of group voting tickets is not one of them. I will be making a submission to the Electoral Matters Committee along the lines of the one I made three years ago:
http://www.parliament.vic.gov.au/images/stories/committees/emc/2014_Election/Submissions/No_44_Chris_Curtis.pdf.
I will read responses but cannot reply tonight.
@Rocket:
“Labor 48, Coalition 35, Greens 3, Independents 2
Seats changing hands –
Northcote – Labor gain from Greens
Brunswick – Greens gain from Labor
Ripon – Labor gain from Liberal
South Barwon – Labor gain from Liberal
One more independent to win a Coalition seat – can’t nominate which”
My prediction is very similar:
Prahran – Labor gain from Greens
Brunswick – Greens gain from Labor
Ripon & South Barwon – Labor gains from Liberal
+ Labor to gain 1 more from Liberal (either Burwood, or possibly Caulfield as the dark horse)
Also, I will be handing out how to vote cards at Westgarth Primary tomorrow. Pray a novena for me.
AM — you’re not wrong!
I reckon the ALP will pick up a couple from the coalition – maybe Sth Barwon and Morwell. I also would not be surprised to see the ALP pick up at least 2 seats from the Greens- say Prahran and Northcote. (Not my personally preferred outcome but anecdotally I’m coming across several friends who’ve voted Green in the past but are OK with Andrews and feel that voting Labor this time sends a stronger message of rejection to Guy; fortunately as neither I nor my friends are of the PB jihadi class we can all talk about it civilly without going nuclear, or chanting puerile slogans, and are comfortable with each other’s preferences.) So I’d reckon 51 ALP 1 Green 1 Ind and 35 Coalition. Not gunna go near the Upper House. That’ll be a circus – which is something that I suspect the next Government may live to regret.
DING DING DING DING DING! We have a winner, come on down!
I’d say the main thing to keep in mind about these preferencing shenanigans is that the most hardcore apologists for it are of the same ilk as those who led a breakaway movement in the 1950s and merrily spent the next 20 years directing preferences to the Coalition themselves.
Not caring about what benefits the Greens is one thing, but these individuals quite clearly also couldn’t give a brass razoo about what benefits their own party, and centre-left politics as a whole, in the long term.
I’m tired, bored, and perhaps not entirely sober. Let’s listen to some music while we ponder the fate of our beloved democracy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HMksPmJiMV4
Re: Newspoll,
How gerrymandered is the Victorian state electorate if TPP 53.5/46.5 to ALP results in a narrow majority for the ALP?
I am tired, so maybe I am missing something here.
It’s due to rapid population growth and the impact of the greens holding very progressive seats
There is a redistribution before the next election which should correct for the former.
Hopefully a greens implosion and more people waking up will address the latter
On that note this article nails it
https://medium.com/@devinelouis/why-i-am-not-voting-green-anymo-1b3fbc561d40?fbclid=IwAR3-zfPUFDHRO_5T4YqQ9Vg-XoI9IjVK9_B3y7R4qtLA3Hmq-di0WmtxVdE
Re: All the Labor v Greens arguments going on, personally I swing between both. I don’t like the fact that either party attacks each other so much when they should really be focussing on defeating their opponents on the right, but that’s politics and at the end of the day I’ll swing between the two based on the circumstances of each election.
I voted Greens in Melbourne Ports in 2016 because I absolutely hate Michael Danby and I think the Greens candidate Steph Hodgkins-May seems like an excellent candidate with the right priorities. I’m not longer in that electorate since moving house this year but I believe she’ll win in 2019. Being in Higgins now, I will most likely be voting for Jason Ball of The Greens next year.
For tomorrow’s election I’m now living in a Greens seat but will be voting Labor #1 and Greens #2 in the lower house. Pharaoh & Hibbins seem about on par as candidates but I feel like the state Labor government have impressed enough to be deserving of a thumping victory, and with a minority government a possibility, although decreasingly so in light of polling, I want to do what I can to ensure a majority Labor government and being in Prahran which is not only the state’s most marginal seat but is also crucial in determining the balance of ALP & Greens seats (and therefore the likelihood of a majority or minority government) I feel like every vote in Prahran is powerful.
My wanting to ensure a majority government isn’t because I have any issue personally with the Greens holding the balance of power, part of me would actually prefer that because there are issues where I feel the Greens’ position is superior to Labor’s and could influence great outcomes (public housing in particular), but because I know what a field day the Murdoch media would have, a Labor-Greens minority government would effectively guarantee a Liberal goverment in 2022.
The way crime rates are plummeting, by 2022 it’s unlikely Murdoch and Liberals will have much left to spin into a fear campaign so I don’t want them to have 4 years of Labor-Greens minority government drama to exploit instead.
3Z,
Would love to, but have not had rosary beads for many years. I guess I can still remember how to count to nine, and how to do a decade of the rosary.
But seriously, is Westgarth Primary that bad? I do not think I have had anyone ask me to say a decade of the rosary for them for at least 45 years.
D & M,
Is that a trick question?
53.5% Looks like a narrow majority to me. In fact what’s 53.5% of 88?
I should also point out that, on primary votes, Labor is headed for significantly less than half the vote but is expected to win more than half the seats. The real problem, in my arrogant opinion, is that our system has led us to expect that if a bit under 11 of 20 votes goes to a single party after preferences, that party has a right to an overwhelming majority.
There isn’t any Gerrymandering. The marginal seats that were held by the coalition and won in 2010 or 2006 had swings to them the coalition in 2014 (eastern suburbs of Melbourne) – all the benefit of the East West Link minus the pain of the thing being built in their backyard. The sandbelt (along the Frankston and Dandenong lines voted for the level crossing removals and the ALP). The result a non-uniform swing has led to not many marginals to target for both sides.