BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor

After a period in which most national polls have come in at 53-47, the BludgerTrack aggregate begins to follow suit.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate records a solid move to the Coalition this week on two-party preferred, off a miserably low base, with the one new national data point from Essential Research being relatively good for them, and the worst of their results from after the leadership change washing out of the system. The 0.8% movement on two-party preferred yields the Coalition a gain of two on the seat projection, with one apiece in Queensland and Western Australia. The state numbers have been updated with the breakdowns released this week by Newspoll, along with the usual unpublished breakdowns from Essential. No new numbers for the leadership ratings this week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

908 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor”

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  2. “Also, there’s something that bothers me about Bludgertrack that I can’t quite put my finger on.”

    The computer screen?

  4. Question says:

    At the rate of one a day?

    For 2 days ? Let us see about tomorrow or the day after and the day after. The place is forked. It is only the degree we argue over.

  5. poroti
    It’s the rate of mass killings and attacks that have escalated and particularly those driven by conspiracy afficiandos that gives me cause for pause.
    I think someone earlier posted a rate of mass killings and attacks that demonstrated that escalation. Can’t recall who it was.

  6. William if you’re there

    There seems to be a problem loading this thread on a desktop using either Chrome or Firefox. I’m posting this on a phone using Firefox so obviously that works.

    Doesn’t appear to apply to other threads.

  18. I dont think the rate of US multiple murder shootings has increased under Trump, though I remain to be corrected. Perhaps the motivations for these atrocities may have changed but who knows.
    It’s always been high, which goes back to whatever amendment the gun nuts cling on to, to cling on to their weapons.
    Am posting this on an ipad via chrome if this helps.

  21. Windows 10, Chrome, C+
    BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor – doesn’t load.
    Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor – loads fine

  24. Hope it’s a good button IoM.

    Usually my tablet with Chrome remembers and pre-fills my name & email. I have to tap and select (it still remembers them) tonight.

  29. Bludgers may remember a couple months ago I raised the issue of nurdles, something I’d never heard of before, after attending a public lecture on plastics and e-waste when one of the panel members talked about a shipping container spill off Durban which tipped over 2 billion nurdles in to the ocean. One of our local beaches apparently gets a lot of the ocean plastics pollution washed up onto it, and so that Durban spill is on radar here for nurdle wash-ups. Fascinating.

    After the spill in Durban, South African authorities were able to clean up about one third of the pellets, which has left more than 1 billion nurdles still swirling in the world’s oceans.

    Dr Paterson said many of those left would make their way to WA’s south coast throughout the coming year.

    “We tend to get fewer plastics over summer because I think it’s the easterly winds, they move plastics offshore.

    “But next winter, when the south-westerlies start again, I think they’re going to be certainly coming ashore then.”

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-26/nurdles-wash-up-near-albany-on-wa-south-coast/10433348

  34. ajm @ #862 Sunday, October 28th, 2018 – 9:05 pm

    Question @ #859 Sunday, October 28th, 2018 – 8:02 pm

    Just posting to test. This from my tablet in a wifi blackspot in my house, so if this works everything should 🙂

    Seems to be a problem with desktops only. Doesn’t make any sort of sense.

    I have had problems with all my devices.

    Reset NBN modem. Restarted Desktop, tablet and phone.

    I eventually came back to the current page on both Firefox and Chrome
    via
    Dashboard
    and
    Recent Comment.

    Both fine now.
    Firefox on Tablet and Phone Ok via Dashboard.
    Could be much worse. Could be forced to watch Pine Gap

    Goodnight all.

    TV Vera

  36. After reading that Fess I’m still not sure what a nurdle is.
    I know ABC commentator Gerard Whateley is a nerdling but this one has me beat.
    So it’s the plastic balls and shit used for packaging ?

  40. Henry:

    Project leader Harriet Paterson said nurdles were the base ingredient for all plastics.

    “A nurdle is, well it’s virgin plastic — so it’s the plastic that’s made in the petrochemical plant, and then it gets put in a container or various bags and things, and then they get shipped all over the world to make everything we use,” Dr Paterson said.

    “So telephones, milk bottles, anything that’s plastic started life as these tiny little pellets called nurdles.

  41. IoM,
    That’s a relief, although I’m sure any input from you would only improve my posts, it might make me a bit paranoid 🙂

  43. Perhaps William flushing the WordPress cache is now starting to have an effect – sometimes these things take a while to work through the Internet.

  47. Scott Morrison’s approval ratings have dropped into negative territory for the first time with the Coalition’s political recovery also being blunted as it drops a point to now trail Labor 46/54 on two party preferred basis.

    An exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian shows the Prime Minister taking a significant personal hit in the wake of the Wentworth by-election with his satisfaction rating falling four points over the past fortnight to 41 per cent.

    Those dissatisfied with the new leader jumped a significant six points to 44 per cent, giving Mr Morrison net negative approval rating for the first time on minus three.

    The latest Newspoll shows the Coalition’s primary support dropping a point to 36 per cent reversing a steady improvement since the first poll following the leadership spill that forced Malcolm Turnbull from office nine weeks ago.

    While still three points higher than the record low of 33 per cent recorded in the days following the spill, it is six points down on the 2016 election result which delivered the Coalition a one-seat majority.

    Labor’s primary vote has improved a point to 39 per cent, having reached as high as 42 per cent last month.

  48. Labor leader Bill Shorten enjoyed a lift in his approval score, rising two points to 37 per cent while those dissatisfied fell a point to 50. This returned the Labor leader a net negative approval rating of minus 13.

    The Greens dropped two points to nine per cent following its failed campaign in Wentworth where it suffered a six point swing against it.

    One Nation’s primary vote of six per cent remained unchanged.

    Collective popular support for all other minor parties and independents benefited from a two points rise to 10 per cent.

    When asked who would make the better prime minister, Mr Morrison dropped two points to 43 per cent while Mr Shorten gained a point to 35 per cent.

    The latest poll was based on interviews with 1646 voters nationally across regional and city areas between October 25 and October 28. The margin of error is plus or minus 2.4 per cent.

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