The BludgerTrack poll aggregate records a solid move to the Coalition this week on two-party preferred, off a miserably low base, with the one new national data point from Essential Research being relatively good for them, and the worst of their results from after the leadership change washing out of the system. The 0.8% movement on two-party preferred yields the Coalition a gain of two on the seat projection, with one apiece in Queensland and Western Australia. The state numbers have been updated with the breakdowns released this week by Newspoll, along with the usual unpublished breakdowns from Essential. No new numbers for the leadership ratings this week.
BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor
After a period in which most national polls have come in at 53-47, the BludgerTrack aggregate begins to follow suit.
PR
😆 don’t mess with the orthodox either

Or GG’s crew !
Phoenix
How pathetic is that?
poroti says: Sunday, October 28, 2018 at 3:43 pm
PR
don’t mess with the orthodox either
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You call that a gun – THIS is a gun !!!!!!
phoenixRED
Well of course, as any gun cnut will tell you “All it takes to stop a bad man with a gun is a good man with a gun” 🙁
Shooters would just acquire bulletproof gear instead maximising the chance of carrying out the attack.
Of course how would the far right feel if US synagogues (or for that matter mosques), had, effectively, an armed militia guarding each building. Could things get out of hand?
Also Trump or his spokesman said CNN and others were partly to blame for the pipe bombs, ‘bringing it on themselves’, by spreading fake news.
What sort of message does that send?
The first two foreign refugees have fled persecution in Australia to safety in New Zealand …
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-28/prince-harry-and-meghans-australian-visit-ends/10438786
I hope the government fulfils their promise of a lifetime ban to stop them returning to Australia.
poroti says: Sunday, October 28, 2018 at 3:46 pm
phoenixRED
I think the theory to stop all this gun violence is that EVERYONE carries a gun ….
Well of course, as any gun cnut will tell you “All it takes to stop a bad man with a gun is a good man with a gun”
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From the classic western SHANE where trying to quit gunfighter Shane shows Joey how to draw – and his mother is not impressed
Marian Starrett: Guns aren’t going to be my boy’s life!
Joey: Why do you always have to spoil everything?
Shane: A gun is a tool, Marian; no better or no worse than any other tool: an axe, a shovel or anything. A gun is as good or as bad as the man using it. Remember that.
Marian Starrett: We’d all be much better off if there wasn’t a single gun left in this valley – including yours.
The mentality of these gun nuts will never be overcome.Its far too late for the USA. They are a lost cause.
steve davis @ #804 Sunday, October 28th, 2018 – 3:49 pm
Surely the sale of bulletproof jackets would violate the intent of the second amendment?
Not just the priests.
Nuns with Guns.
I wonder if there is a correlation between the proliferation of guns and the incarceration rate. They think that if they throw lots of people in gaol, there is less chance someone will blast them to death.
If people wore chainmail all the time, these things wouldn’t happen.
It doesnt take any foreign terrorists to attack the US. Their own people do a bloody good of it on their own.They must laugh everytime there is a mass shooting there.
I think rather than crushing the guns our police collect, we should ship them to the USA and give them to minorities. In fact the rest of the world could give guns and ammo to minorities. Arm them for free. As an act of equality.
Let’s see how the RWFW KKK mobs like that one. Do you think they might suddenly repeal the 2nd Amendment?
https://youtu.be/2NsjFfdQKLU
Court’s adjourned.
steve davis says: Sunday, October 28, 2018 at 3:56 pm
It doesnt take any foreign terrorists to attack the US. Their own people do a bloody good of it on their own.They must laugh everytime there is a mass shooting there.
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You got that right Steve – even though the US seems in endless war …. even just school shootings ….let alone the approximate 12,000 US shooting deaths so far this year
School Shooting Deaths In 2018 Already Exceed Military Deaths. And There’s More.
On Friday, nine students and one adult were killed in a school shooting in Santa Fe, Texas. As the nation grapples with the horror of yet another deadly shooting at an American school, the Washington Post released a startling statistic: School shooting deaths in 2018 already exceed military deaths.
https://www.bustle.com/p/school-shooting-deaths-in-2018-already-exceed-military-deaths-theres-more-9137419
https://www.gunviolencearchive.org/reports/number-of-gun-deaths
steve davis says:
And it is well entrenched. Years ago I listened to an ABC doco on some Irish convicts (Fenians ?) who were sprung from a Tasmanian police station by some Americans in about 1860. A quote from one of the cops who was confronted by the Americans demanding the keys to the cells stuck in my mind. He handed over the keys because it was at the time assumed all Americans carried guns.
Re Chinese investment: I can see the concerns of people who are worried that we’re bartering away our future for a mess of pottage, I really can. And I can absolutely support the banning of state-owned foreign companies from owning more than X value worth of Australian assets.
But
With the miserly levels of support we give our farmers, vintners, and everyone else who makes a living directly from our soil (excepting the miners, of course – they get whatever they please!), they increasingly cannot stay on the land themselves, and who else is buying?
If we had some kind of coherent agricultural policy (beyond “toss money at it in fits and starts”), the farmers’ lot would be far easier. If we had an environmental policy beyond “subsidise coal”, it’d be even easier. But in a supreme display of irony, the farmers themselves keep voting in the Party most opposed to either of these ever happening!
steve davis @ #808 Sunday, October 28th, 2018 – 3:52 pm
The entrenched culture of killing animals as a sport adds to the view.
They got there earlier than expected.
.
.
Idiocracy: The Great Dumbing Down
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-N9nVLXMhPc
President Dwayne Elizondo Mountain Dew Herbert Camacho’s State of the Union. United States of America’s Near-Future
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sGUNPMPrxvA
The latest by-election has passed… and so has the faux concern of our major parties for the tortured in our offshore internments.
I agree Poroti.
I do not think it will ever be possible to disarm the USA populace. The gun culture is too entrenched. I do not get upset by their school shootings anymore3 because these Americans have done their transactional analysis and have oped for no gun control.
I am terrified the fvcking ncuts of the UsA gun lobby will get enough political power in Australia to turn us into the USA.
https://www.guncontrolaustralia.org/
You can get more info on that site and learn how you can help. The first step is to recognise the risk as per shown on 4 Corners.
Rex Douglas says: Sunday, October 28, 2018 at 4:26 pm
steve davis @ #808 Sunday, October 28th, 2018 – 3:52 pm
The mentality of these gun nuts will never be overcome.Its far too late for the USA. They are a lost cause.
The entrenched culture of killing animals as a sport adds to the view………………
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and here again Trumps own kids are MAJOR OFFENDERS !!!!
– the whole Trump Crime Family are TOTAL FUCKUPS
The Trump sons go hunting again. Will more trophy photos follow?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/animalia/wp/2016/08/06/the-trump-sons-go-hunting-again-will-more-trophy-photos-follow/?utm_term=.19d43aa9daf8
By Kerry Lauerman
August 6, 2016
What went so wrong with Trump sons that they could kill this beautiful creature
Anyone got information about whether there will be a Newspoll tonight?
Matt @ #818 Sunday, October 28th, 2018 – 4:24 pm
It may be worth noting that the Chinese will soon overtake the UK as the largest foreign owners of land in Australia … if in fact they have not already (these are last years figures) …
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/china-now-owns-10-times-the-amount-of-australian-land-it-did-last-year-20170930-gyrxia.html
These two nations (i.e. China and UK) are far and away the largest foreign owners of land. And China would already own far more, except that several of their recent attempts to purchase major chunks have been so blatantly not in our national interest that they have been blocked (which, given how feeble our FIRB is, makes you wonder just how blatant these attempts must have been!)
And I should point out that I have no particular preference for the UK over China. In this instance I think both are ultimately not in Australia’s best interests.
phoenixRED
Donald Trumpenstein though very much disapproves of such hunting. Heck he’s even a teetotaller.
poroti says: Sunday, October 28, 2018 at 4:50 pm
phoenixRED
Donald Trumpenstein though very much disapproves of such hunting. Heck he’s even a teetotaller.
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Yes I know Poroti ….. Trump only drinks diet coke – sadly there is a bit more to his character ….
I guess they should be praised for closely studying Christ’s words and adapted it to the modern situation:—
“Then said he unto them, But now, he that hath a purse, let him take it, and likewise his scrip: and he that hath no sword, let him sell his garment, and buy one.” (Lk 22 v. 36.)
Urgh
Also recent events have reminded us that though he’s a friend of Israel, he is also an anti-semite. The two things are different. One can oppose Israel and not be anti-semitic; one can support Israel and not be anti-semitic; one can support Israel and be anti-semitic, and one can oppose Israel and be anti-semitic.
Felix
As always , Follow the Money.
.
Sheldon Adelson: the casino mogul driving Trump’s Middle East policy
The Las Vegas billionaire gave Republicans $82m for the 2016 elections and his views, notably staunch support for Netanyahu’s Israel, are now the official US line.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/jun/08/sheldon-adelson-trump-middle-east-policy
If anyone wants to have a final guess at the next Newspoll, I’ll be posting the entire list in an hour or so. So far we have…
PB mean: ALP 54.4 to 45.6 LNP
PB median: ALP 54.0 to 46.0 LNP
No. Of PB Respondents: 73
Stephen Fry speaks out against “political correctness”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tPEHbJgomgA
Late Riser
Put me down for 54.
My head says 53. My heart says 54. My thinking is that although the shock of change of leadership is still dissipating, Morrison is proving to be a fool and is being increasingly mocked in the media. This last week wasn’t as bad as the week before but on the other hand there not all daily news has an instant reaction in polls. Some of it – and the general vibe that he’s erratic and untrustworthy – takes time to filter through. Plus I believe Newspoll has within it a smoothing process that is backwards looking. Put it this way, I think that 54 is more likely than 52. Plus if I pick 54 and its wrong then I can blame the PB consensus 🙂
Also, there’s something that bothers me about Bludgertrack that I can’t quite put my finger on.
poroti @ #832 Sunday, October 28th, 2018 – 2:40 pm
Would love to have seen Michael Eric Dyson speak – he’s one of the other panelists.
Confessions
Here is the whole shebang. All two hours of it !!
.
Political Correctness Debate ft. Stephen Fry, Jordan Peterson, Michael Dyson, Michelle Goldberg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GxYimeaoea0
Thanks poroti!
PB Newspoll-Poll 2018-10-28
We appear again to be uncertain if there will be a Newspoll tonight. But it has been 2 weeks since the last Newspoll. So maybe and anyway. Here are the guesses made during the past few days. Apologies if I’ve missed anyone, and kudos to you if you got close!
PB mean: ALP 54.4 to 45.6 LNP
PB median: ALP 54.0 to 46.0 LNP
No. Of PB Respondents: 74
ALP / LNP
55 / 45 A different Michael
60 / 40 adrian
54 / 46 a r
57 / 43 ajm
57 / 43 Akubra
55 / 45 Al Pal
54 / 46 Andrew_Earlwood
56 / 44 Aqualung
54 / 46 Asha Leu
54 / 46 Aunt Mavis
55 / 45 ausdavo
55 / 45 autocrat
53 / 47 Bert
54 / 46 bilko
54 / 46 BK
53 / 47 Boerwar
56 / 44 briefly
55 / 45 Burgey
53 / 47 C@tmomma
55 / 45 chinda63
53 / 47 Clem Attlee
54 / 46 Confessions
54 / 46 Cud Chewer
57 / 43 Dan Gulberry
55 / 45 DaretoTread
53 / 47 Douglas and Milko
53 / 47 Felix
56 / 44 Fulvio Sammut
54 / 46 Gareth
57 / 43 Gecko
56 / 44 Golly
55 / 45 grimace
54 / 46 Harry “Snapper” Organs
54 / 46 imacca
53 / 47 It’s Time
54 / 46 jeffemu
54 / 46 jenauthor
54 / 46 John R
60 / 40 KayJay
54 / 46 Late Riser
55 / 45 lefty e
55 / 45 LongMemory82
54 / 46 Lynchpin
52 / 48 Matt
54 / 46 Matt31
53 / 47 max
54 / 46 meher baba
55 / 45 Michael A
53 / 47 mikehilliard
53 / 47 Paddy O
54 / 46 pica
54 / 46 Player One
54 / 46 poroti
57 / 43 Puffytmd
57 / 43 Quasar
54 / 46 Question
53 / 47 Robert Ball
53 / 47 SCOUT
52 / 48 Simon² Katich®
50 / 50 Sprocket_
54 / 46 Socrates
54 / 46 Sohar
57 / 43 sonar
53 / 47 steve davis
54 / 46 Steve777
54 / 46 The Silver Bodgie
54 / 46 Tricot
53 / 47 Tristo
54 / 46 Upnorth
53 / 47 Victoria
54 / 46 Whisper
55 / 45 Work To Rule
54 / 46 Yabba
53 / 47 Zoidlord
“We appear again to be uncertain if there will be a Newspoll tonight. But it has been 2 weeks since the last Newspoll”
I’ve noticed that Newspoll polls at the beginning of a parliamentary sitting and at the end, so I expect one tonight. If parliament is not sitting it is usually three weeks.
Newspollwatch.
I didn’t actually want commenters to be able to embed images on the blog, before it was presented as a fait accompli as part of one of Crikey’s redesigns, because I envisioned that the site would shortly be festooned with the kind of crap just posted by PhoenixRED. On the whole though, I have to say I’ve been pleasantly surprised by the infrequency of this sort of thing. Nonetheless, I do ask though for a bit of self-regulation.
There are two rules of thumb that apply here. One is that if you are a dedicated political partisan of any kind, and you come across an image on social media that someone has knocked up on Photoshop to ridicule a political enemy, and this image strikes you as being gut-bustingly hilarious, the chances of you being right about this are just about zero. Almost certainly, the image will be painfully childish and unfunny, and posting it will cause embarrassment only to yourself.
The other rule of thumb (not relevant on this occasion, but do keep it in mind) is that if the intention is to ridicule the dress or appearance of a female public figure, posting it is almost definitely a really bad idea.
Rod Bower would clearly be a better alternative to some of the current NSW reps in the senate.
“Rod Bower would clearly be a better alternative to some of the current NSW reps in the senate”
Agreed, Rex. If Bower were in Victoria, I’d give him my vote.
It seems to me that the U.S. is already in an undeclared civil war. How else does one explain the outbreak of mass shootings, etc., occurring at the rate they are?
William
Do you have any idea whether or not there will be a Newspoll this evening?
Harry “Snapper” Organs @ #843 Sunday, October 28th, 2018 – 8:07 pm
Yes and I can’t see a way of halting the momentum and escalation of civil conflict. It’s a broken, corrupt society.
I can only assume so, HSO.
Harry “Snapper” Organs @ #843 Sunday, October 28th, 2018 – 8:07 pm
Nah,probably no more than usual. Hello Waco, hello Oklahoma bombings etc etc. Same old shit just keeping on keeping on.
At the rate of one a day?