BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor

After a period in which most national polls have come in at 53-47, the BludgerTrack aggregate begins to follow suit.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate records a solid move to the Coalition this week on two-party preferred, off a miserably low base, with the one new national data point from Essential Research being relatively good for them, and the worst of their results from after the leadership change washing out of the system. The 0.8% movement on two-party preferred yields the Coalition a gain of two on the seat projection, with one apiece in Queensland and Western Australia. The state numbers have been updated with the breakdowns released this week by Newspoll, along with the usual unpublished breakdowns from Essential. No new numbers for the leadership ratings this week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

908 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor”

Comments Page 17 of 19
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  3. poroti says: Sunday, October 28, 2018 at 3:43 pm

    PR

    donā€™t mess with the orthodox either

    ********************************************************

    You call that a gun – THIS is a gun !!!!!!

  4. phoenixRED

    I think the theory to stop all this gun violence is that EVERYONE carries a gun ā€¦.

    Well of course, as any gun cnut will tell you “All it takes to stop a bad man with a gun is a good man with a gun” šŸ™

  6. Of course how would the far right feel if US synagogues (or for that matter mosques), had, effectively, an armed militia guarding each building. Could things get out of hand?

    Also Trump or his spokesman said CNN and others were partly to blame for the pipe bombs, ‘bringing it on themselves’, by spreading fake news.
    What sort of message does that send?

  8. poroti says: Sunday, October 28, 2018 at 3:46 pm

    phoenixRED

    I think the theory to stop all this gun violence is that EVERYONE carries a gun ā€¦.

    Well of course, as any gun cnut will tell you ā€œAll it takes to stop a bad man with a gun is a good man with a gunā€

    ****************************************************

    From the classic western SHANE where trying to quit gunfighter Shane shows Joey how to draw – and his mother is not impressed

    Marian Starrett: Guns aren’t going to be my boy’s life!

    Joey: Why do you always have to spoil everything?

    Shane: A gun is a tool, Marian; no better or no worse than any other tool: an axe, a shovel or anything. A gun is as good or as bad as the man using it. Remember that.

    Marian Starrett: We’d all be much better off if there wasn’t a single gun left in this valley – including yours.

  12. I wonder if there is a correlation between the proliferation of guns and the incarceration rate. They think that if they throw lots of people in gaol, there is less chance someone will blast them to death.

  14. It doesnt take any foreign terrorists to attack the US. Their own people do a bloody good of it on their own.They must laugh everytime there is a mass shooting there.

  15. I think rather than crushing the guns our police collect, we should ship them to the USA and give them to minorities. In fact the rest of the world could give guns and ammo to minorities. Arm them for free. As an act of equality.

    Let’s see how the RWFW KKK mobs like that one. Do you think they might suddenly repeal the 2nd Amendment?

  17. steve davis says: Sunday, October 28, 2018 at 3:56 pm

    It doesnt take any foreign terrorists to attack the US. Their own people do a bloody good of it on their own.They must laugh everytime there is a mass shooting there.

    **************************************************************

    You got that right Steve – even though the US seems in endless war …. even just school shootings ….let alone the approximate 12,000 US shooting deaths so far this year

    School Shooting Deaths In 2018 Already Exceed Military Deaths. And There’s More.

    On Friday, nine students and one adult were killed in a school shooting in Santa Fe, Texas. As the nation grapples with the horror of yet another deadly shooting at an American school, the Washington Post released a startling statistic: School shooting deaths in 2018 already exceed military deaths.

    https://www.bustle.com/p/school-shooting-deaths-in-2018-already-exceed-military-deaths-theres-more-9137419

    https://www.gunviolencearchive.org/reports/number-of-gun-deaths

  18. steve davis says:

    The mentality of these gun nuts will never be overcome.Its far too late for the USA. They are a lost cause.

    And it is well entrenched. Years ago I listened to an ABC doco on some Irish convicts (Fenians ?) who were sprung from a Tasmanian police station by some Americans in about 1860. A quote from one of the cops who was confronted by the Americans demanding the keys to the cells stuck in my mind. He handed over the keys because it was at the time assumed all Americans carried guns.

  19. Re Chinese investment: I can see the concerns of people who are worried that we’re bartering away our future for a mess of pottage, I really can. And I can absolutely support the banning of state-owned foreign companies from owning more than X value worth of Australian assets.

    But

    With the miserly levels of support we give our farmers, vintners, and everyone else who makes a living directly from our soil (excepting the miners, of course – they get whatever they please!), they increasingly cannot stay on the land themselves, and who else is buying?

    If we had some kind of coherent agricultural policy (beyond “toss money at it in fits and starts”), the farmers’ lot would be far easier. If we had an environmental policy beyond “subsidise coal”, it’d be even easier. But in a supreme display of irony, the farmers themselves keep voting in the Party most opposed to either of these ever happening!

  22. The latest by-election has passed… and so has the faux concern of our major parties for the tortured in our offshore internments.

  23. I agree Poroti.
    I do not think it will ever be possible to disarm the USA populace. The gun culture is too entrenched. I do not get upset by their school shootings anymore3 because these Americans have done their transactional analysis and have oped for no gun control.

    I am terrified the fvcking ncuts of the UsA gun lobby will get enough political power in Australia to turn us into the USA.
    https://www.guncontrolaustralia.org/
    You can get more info on that site and learn how you can help. The first step is to recognise the risk as per shown on 4 Corners.

  24. Rex Douglas says: Sunday, October 28, 2018 at 4:26 pm

    steve davis @ #808 Sunday, October 28th, 2018 ā€“ 3:52 pm

    The mentality of these gun nuts will never be overcome.Its far too late for the USA. They are a lost cause.

    The entrenched culture of killing animals as a sport adds to the view………………

    *******************************************************

    and here again Trumps own kids are MAJOR OFFENDERS !!!!

    – the whole Trump Crime Family are TOTAL FUCKUPS

    The Trump sons go hunting again. Will more trophy photos follow?

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/animalia/wp/2016/08/06/the-trump-sons-go-hunting-again-will-more-trophy-photos-follow/?utm_term=.19d43aa9daf8

    By Kerry Lauerman

    August 6, 2016

    What went so wrong with Trump sons that they could kill this beautiful creature

  26. Matt @ #818 Sunday, October 28th, 2018 – 4:24 pm

    Re Chinese investment: I can see the concerns of people who are worried that we’re bartering away our future for a mess of pottage, I really can. And I can absolutely support the banning of state-owned foreign companies from owning more than X value worth of Australian assets.

    It may be worth noting that the Chinese will soon overtake the UK as the largest foreign owners of land in Australia … if in fact they have not already (these are last years figures) …

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/china-now-owns-10-times-the-amount-of-australian-land-it-did-last-year-20170930-gyrxia.html

    These two nations (i.e. China and UK) are far and away the largest foreign owners of land. And China would already own far more, except that several of their recent attempts to purchase major chunks have been so blatantly not in our national interest that they have been blocked (which, given how feeble our FIRB is, makes you wonder just how blatant these attempts must have been!)

    And I should point out that I have no particular preference for the UK over China. In this instance I think both are ultimately not in Australia’s best interests.

  28. poroti says: Sunday, October 28, 2018 at 4:50 pm

    phoenixRED

    Donald Trumpenstein though very much disapproves of such hunting. Heck heā€™s even a teetotaller.

    **************************************************************

    Yes I know Poroti ….. Trump only drinks diet coke – sadly there is a bit more to his character ….

  29. I guess they should be praised for closely studying Christ’s words and adapted it to the modern situation:ā€”

    “Then said he unto them, But now, he that hath a purse, let him take it, and likewise his scrip: and he that hath no sword, let him sell his garment, and buy one.” (Lk 22 v. 36.)

  31. Also recent events have reminded us that though he’s a friend of Israel, he is also an anti-semite. The two things are different. One can oppose Israel and not be anti-semitic; one can support Israel and not be anti-semitic; one can support Israel and be anti-semitic, and one can oppose Israel and be anti-semitic.

  33. If anyone wants to have a final guess at the next Newspoll, I’ll be posting the entire list in an hour or so. So far we have…

    PB mean: ALP 54.4 to 45.6 LNP
    PB median: ALP 54.0 to 46.0 LNP
    No. Of PB Respondents: 73

  35. Late Riser

    Put me down for 54.

    My head says 53. My heart says 54. My thinking is that although the shock of change of leadership is still dissipating, Morrison is proving to be a fool and is being increasingly mocked in the media. This last week wasn’t as bad as the week before but on the other hand there not all daily news has an instant reaction in polls. Some of it – and the general vibe that he’s erratic and untrustworthy – takes time to filter through. Plus I believe Newspoll has within it a smoothing process that is backwards looking. Put it this way, I think that 54 is more likely than 52. Plus if I pick 54 and its wrong then I can blame the PB consensus šŸ™‚

    Also, there’s something that bothers me about Bludgertrack that I can’t quite put my finger on.

  39. PB Newspoll-Poll 2018-10-28

    We appear again to be uncertain if there will be a Newspoll tonight. But it has been 2 weeks since the last Newspoll. So maybe and anyway. Here are the guesses made during the past few days. Apologies if I’ve missed anyone, and kudos to you if you got close!

    PB mean: ALP 54.4 to 45.6 LNP
    PB median: ALP 54.0 to 46.0 LNP
    No. Of PB Respondents: 74

    ALP / LNP
    55 / 45 A different Michael
    60 / 40 adrian
    54 / 46 a r
    57 / 43 ajm
    57 / 43 AkubraĀ 
    55 / 45 Al Pal
    54 / 46 Andrew_Earlwood
    56 / 44 Aqualung
    54 / 46 Asha Leu
    54 / 46 Aunt Mavis
    55 / 45 ausdavo
    55 / 45 autocrat
    53 / 47 Bert
    54 / 46 bilko
    54 / 46 BK
    53 / 47 Boerwar
    56 / 44 briefly
    55 / 45 Burgey
    53 / 47 C@tmomma
    55 / 45 chinda63
    53 / 47 Clem Attlee
    54 / 46 Confessions
    54 / 46 Cud Chewer
    57 / 43 Dan Gulberry
    55 / 45 DaretoTread
    53 / 47 Douglas and Milko
    53 / 47 Felix
    56 / 44 Fulvio Sammut
    54 / 46 Gareth
    57 / 43 Gecko
    56 / 44 Golly
    55 / 45 grimace
    54 / 46 Harry “Snapper” Organs
    54 / 46 imacca
    53 / 47 It’s Time
    54 / 46 jeffemu
    54 / 46 jenauthor
    54 / 46 John R
    60 / 40 KayJay
    54 / 46 Late Riser
    55 / 45 lefty e
    55 / 45 LongMemory82
    54 / 46 Lynchpin
    52 / 48 Matt
    54 / 46 Matt31
    53 / 47 max
    54 / 46 meher baba
    55 / 45 Michael A
    53 / 47 mikehilliard
    53 / 47 Paddy O
    54 / 46 pica
    54 / 46 Player One
    54 / 46 poroti
    57 / 43 Puffytmd
    57 / 43 Quasar
    54 / 46 Question
    53 / 47 Robert Ball
    53 / 47 SCOUT
    52 / 48 SimonĀ² KatichĀ®
    50 / 50 Sprocket_
    54 / 46 Socrates
    54 / 46 Sohar
    57 / 43 sonar
    53 / 47 steve davis
    54 / 46 Steve777
    54 / 46 The Silver Bodgie
    54 / 46 Tricot
    53 / 47 Tristo
    54 / 46 Upnorth
    53 / 47 Victoria
    54 / 46 Whisper
    55 / 45 Work To Rule
    54 / 46 Yabba
    53 / 47 Zoidlord

  40. “We appear again to be uncertain if there will be a Newspoll tonight. But it has been 2 weeks since the last Newspoll”
    I’ve noticed that Newspoll polls at the beginning of a parliamentary sitting and at the end, so I expect one tonight. If parliament is not sitting it is usually three weeks.

  42. I didn’t actually want commenters to be able to embed images on the blog, before it was presented as a fait accompli as part of one of Crikey’s redesigns, because I envisioned that the site would shortly be festooned with the kind of crap just posted by PhoenixRED. On the whole though, I have to say I’ve been pleasantly surprised by the infrequency of this sort of thing. Nonetheless, I do ask though for a bit of self-regulation.

    There are two rules of thumb that apply here. One is that if you are a dedicated political partisan of any kind, and you come across an image on social media that someone has knocked up on Photoshop to ridicule a political enemy, and this image strikes you as being gut-bustingly hilarious, the chances of you being right about this are just about zero. Almost certainly, the image will be painfully childish and unfunny, and posting it will cause embarrassment only to yourself.

    The other rule of thumb (not relevant on this occasion, but do keep it in mind) is that if the intention is to ridicule the dress or appearance of a female public figure, posting it is almost definitely a really bad idea.

  44. “Rod Bower would clearly be a better alternative to some of the current NSW reps in the senate”
    Agreed, Rex. If Bower were in Victoria, I’d give him my vote.

  45. It seems to me that the U.S. is already in an undeclared civil war. How else does one explain the outbreak of mass shootings, etc., occurring at the rate they are?

  47. Harry “Snapper” Organs @ #843 Sunday, October 28th, 2018 – 8:07 pm

    It seems to me that the U.S. is already in an undeclared civil war. How else does one explain the outbreak of mass shootings, etc., occurring at the rate they are?

    Yes and I can’t see a way of halting the momentum and escalation of civil conflict. It’s a broken, corrupt society.

  49. Harry ā€œSnapperā€ Organs @ #843 Sunday, October 28th, 2018 ā€“ 8:07 pm

    It seems to me that the U.S. is already in an undeclared civil war. How else does one explain the outbreak of mass shootings, etc., occurring at the rate they are?

    Nah,probably no more than usual. Hello Waco, hello Oklahoma bombings etc etc. Same old shit just keeping on keeping on.

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