BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor

After a period in which most national polls have come in at 53-47, the BludgerTrack aggregate begins to follow suit.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate records a solid move to the Coalition this week on two-party preferred, off a miserably low base, with the one new national data point from Essential Research being relatively good for them, and the worst of their results from after the leadership change washing out of the system. The 0.8% movement on two-party preferred yields the Coalition a gain of two on the seat projection, with one apiece in Queensland and Western Australia. The state numbers have been updated with the breakdowns released this week by Newspoll, along with the usual unpublished breakdowns from Essential. No new numbers for the leadership ratings this week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

908 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor”

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  1. Morning all. Stay safe Cat!

    If only the COALition’s campaign cry was “Stop the sorts!” Taxpayers might have saved $850k given to the National Party treasurer. Having kept the funds for himself since 2011, why isn’t Peter Schwartz being forced to repay seven years worth of interest on $850K? Around $300K by my maths. We jail Centrelink clients for less.

  2. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    And a reminder that the patrol will be resumed next Wednesday morning.

    The SMH editorial comes right to the point in saying that Barnaby Joyce is the Coalition’s disease,
    Michelle Grattan describes what a shambles this government is.
    David Wroe outlines how Morrison’s desperate brain farts on the Israel embassy and the Iran nuclear deal unfolded, much to the surprise of many senior bureaucrats and ministers.
    It doesn’t stop there either. Nicole Hasham tells us how the Morrison government failed to consult Australia’s competition chief Rod Sims about a radical proposal to forcibly break up big power companies that refuse to stop electricity price gouging, leaving the respected official to “read about it in the newspaper”.
    Analysing Scott Morrison’s Twitter activity sheds some light on his ineptitude as our country’s leader, writes Belinda Jones. She says the king of spin is unravelling.,12028
    The AFR’s Mark Ludlow reports that Victoria and Queensland won’t commit to anything at today’s energy minister’s meeting, dashing Angus Taylor’s hopes of signing the states up to a reliability mechanism for the National Electricity Market.
    Dave Donovan asks. “After the ATM Government’s crushing defeat in Wentworth, where to now for the Liberal Party and its propaganda arm, the Murdoch media?”–what-happens-after-wentworth,12032
    Phil Coorey says that Malcolm Turnbull is now in a critical window in which he will define his legacy. Write a book and move on like Julia Gillard or stay angry like Kevin Rudd and Tony Abbott.
    The Australian Securities and Investments Commission confirmed it will investigate Assistant Treasurer Stuart Robert’s directorship of a controversial health supplements company. How long can Morrison hang on to this grub?
    Stephen Bartholomeusz explains what is behind the fall in the US stock market.
    Why Wall Street’s tumble is bad news for Trump.
    And Alex Moffatt tells us what Australian investors can learn from overseas.
    David Crowe reports on how politicians at last are realising that they can’t ignore what’s been going on in Nauru forever.
    On this subject Waleed Aly writes that our Parliament is not debating a bill of grave importance as some crucial pre-requisite to ending the tragedy of Nauru. It is engaged in an exercise of political vanity; an attempt to do away with a crisis that was always inevitable, while preserving the politics that created it.
    In an interesting contribution environmental science professor Richard Kingsford explains how Barnaby Joyce and Andrew Forrest have got it wrong on the drought.
    Fergus Hunter reports that the government will pour $3.9 billion into a new fund to mitigate the devastating impacts of drought, in a major pitch to struggling regional communities.
    Meanwhile Nick McKenzie reveals that the Nationals’ federal treasurer Peter Schwarz is accused of gouging much of the $850,000 he was paid by Australia’s largest drought-proofing project and calling in favours when pressed to account for the taxpayer cash.
    Katharine Murphy caught up with Craig Laundy for an interesting insight into his time as an MP.
    Latika Bourke tells us about how Tony Abbott is being lauded by Brexit supporters and told to butt out by Remainers after the former prime minister savaged Theresa May’s Brexit plan and urged her to pull Britain out of the EU with no deal.
    A dispute between the Commonwealth and the states and territories over health funding has reached critical mass, after the Federal Government refused to reverse a recalculation that will claw back more than $600 million allocated to hospitals and health services over the past financial year. Dana McCauley reports on what will lead to a big stoush with the states,
    More than four million people living in the outer reaches of our largest cities are not within walking distance of a reliable train or bus ­service, a damning audit of public transport has found.
    Police in New York City have removed a suspicious package sent to a building owned by actor Robert De Niro.
    Matthew Knott explains how these pipe bombs have prompted a wave of concern about whether the increasingly vitriolic nature of US political debate – including contributions by President Trump – is encouraging violence ahead of the November 6 midterm elections. It’s an increasingly divided nation.
    Jill Abramson says that the worst aspect of the US attempted bombings is the air of their inevitability. She says Trump’s reckless rhetoric towards opponents has helped stoke this hideously violent time in politics.
    Under President Michael Kroger, the Victorian Liberal Party has engaged in epic internal and external fights that have left party activists sceptical of winning the November 24 state election.
    Going to her own childhood experiences of abuse Wendy Squires gives some good advice.
    Beijing has been infuriated by recent US sanctions on its military, one of a growing number of flashpoints in ties with Washington that include a bitter trade war, Taiwan and China’s increasingly muscular military posture in the South China Sea.
    More from Stephen Bartholomeusz as he explains how AMP’s 19th century businesses have been operating in an environment that is structurally challenged. Mike Wilkins and David Murray have finally come up with a structural solution, a complete exit from its wealth protection and mature businesses in Australasia.
    AMP shares have posted their biggest one-day fall ever as a powerful share market rout and fallout from the Hayne royal commission collided with its decision to sell its life business.
    Jennifer Hewett writes that the damage to one of Australia’s most prominent financial institutions reflects the instant and massive cost these days of tarnished reputation.
    Australian Prudential Regulation Authority chairman Wayne Byres has revealed that his new deputy John Lonsdale has been charged with conducting a review of APRA’s enforcement policies, such as utilising court-based sanctions.
    Gareth Hutchens tells us that Labor has identified one of the biggest blind spots of the banking royal commission as being its lack of interrogation of the way banks are using the legal system to crush customers.
    Van Badham writes that the government is desperate as protesting workers have public opinion behind them.
    The federal government has scrapped a policy to review the medical condition of 90,000 people on the disability support pension (DSP) after less than 2% people were found to be ineligible. The program announce in the last budget has proven to be a complete flop.
    Michaela Whitbourn reports on yesterday’s proceedings in the Geoffrey Rush court case.
    Right now in a clutch of Australian supermarkets, their locations under wraps, a “hush, hush” plan is underway that could eliminate the temptation to indulge in a sly bit of self-serve checkout theft forever.
    Harold Mitchell is disgusted that we don’t care enough about climate change.
    While the science behind climate change may be difficult for the average person to comprehend, it shouldn’t be so for our political leaders, writes John Lord.,12029
    John Elder advises us to forget any hopes of drought-breaking rain over summer. The only good news for the large areas of NSW in drought is that there isn’t much left to burn once the fires start.
    How Trump has encouraged assassination attempts.
    Matthew Knott writes on how Trump has played the victim after were sent to political foes.
    In a South Australian legal first, a senior bikie gang member has been jailed indefinitely for refusing to answer six questions at an Australian Criminal Intelligence Commission coercive hearing.
    Clive Palmer has sent out a clearly misleading political flyer, inferring he has three former prime ministers in his new party’s ranks. I think he needs some psychiatric help.
    Esther Han reports that an administrative bungle by Transport for NSW has exacerbated fears among disability groups that essential over-the-phone services will be taken away from those most in need.
    Ruth William writes that Myer directors have taken a pay cut and will be pushed to buy up shares in the troubled department store operator, as the company tries to stave off a second shareholder strike on pay and with it, a potential board spill. What a mess that company is!
    Shane Warne says leg-spin sensation Lloyd Pope and Travis Head’s gritty batting are the lights on the hill in Australia’s darkest period since its 1980s nadir. He is livid with the nation’s cricket hierarchy for the parlous state of Australia’s batting which has unravelled against Pakistan in the United Arab Emirates.
    Kate McClymont with some nominations for “Arsehole of the Week”.
    Although this mongrel could take it out . . .

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe on the pipe bombs in the US.
    Mark David has a shot at Imelda Bishop.
    Paul Zanetti and Turnbull’s travel allowance.
    Arms trading.
    Sean Leahy on Wayne Bennett’s appointment to coach the South Sydney Rabbitohs.
    A classic from David Pope on the government’s attempts on energy policy.$width_828/t_resize_width/t_sharpen%2Cq_auto%2Cf_auto/61c86b0d2fd8eb4b9981eac57144a0645c3b46a4
    Jon Kudelka sees Fraser Anning off.
    More in here.

  3. Socrates

    Morrison is flailing around – he has been unbelievably chaotic since his elevation. I expected him to aim for a low profile, sort of like Lindsay Thompson in Victoria after Dick Hamer resigned. Thompson at least maintained his dignity in the face of the Liberals losing office after 27 years – Morrison is making a fool of himself on a daily basis. You would think that if you only had nine months in your life as PM you would not want to look like a joke, and would want some sort of at least neutral image for posterity.

  4. Newly revealed texts could bust Roger Stone for a conspiracy to obstruct justice

    Newly revealed text messages show that Trump ally Roger Stone repeatedly talked up plans to lobby President Donald Trump to give WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange a “blanket pardon” — and that could come back to bite him legally.

    Trump adviser John Bolton and top aide ‘have the knives out’ to get rid of Mattis: report

    According to a former senior defense department insider, National Security Advisor John Bolton and his top deputy are leading a “whisper campaign” hoping to accelerate the departure of Defense Secretary James Mattis in order to solidify the hawkish Bolton’s influence over President Donald Trump.

    Foreign Policy reports Bolton has enlisted one of his senior aides — Deputy National Security Advisor Mira Ricardel — to spread rumors about Mattis leaving sooner rather than later.

    Saudi Spy Met With Team Trump About Taking Down Iran

    Mueller’s investigators examined a series of meetings between an Israeli social media strategist, the general blamed for Jamal Khashoggi’s murder, and Trump adviser Michael Flynn.

    Gen. Ahmed Al-Assiri, the Saudi intelligence chief taking the fall for the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, hobnobbed in New York with Michael Flynn and other members of the transition team shortly before Trump’s inauguration. The topic of their discussion: regime change in Iran.

  5. Thanks BK. I share your sentiments on most of those stories.

    Rocket, Thompson and Hamer were before my time and not having grown up in Victoria I don’t know enough to comment. But I agree Morrison is flailing around. There is no “staying on message” because there is no message. “Stable government” is not a message, merely a wish. And after three PMs, it is a joke.

    Meanwhile what will this (un)stable government actually do? The only plan seems to be to hang on to power as long as possible, and use it to give public money to mates, while allowing business donors to exploit customers as long as possible without penalty.

  6. “Labour DLP” to appear on ballot papers? Surely that can’t be allowed. Labor should raise strenuous objections with the AEC. And if that fails, hope the DLP is drawn behind the ALP on Senate ballot papers.

  7. The media will call anything a very fast train these days.

    Cut the syd to cbr journey to 3 hours by train?

    Plus the bus from Kingston to cbr cbd?

    That now puts trains on par with the bus service.

    I think we need to legislate. To be called a train, you must beat the bus. To be called a fast train you must beat a car. To be called a very fast train, you must beat a plane (cbd to cbd)

  8. Coorey says Turnbull can “define his legacy”. What f… in’ legacy? There is nothing to define. He was about as significant as the cockroaches in the Lodge. Ah, the love these guys had for Moneybags.

  9. C@tmomma

    If you want to see some action head west.
    Laverton North Macca’s on Fitzgerald Road on a Friday or Saturday night.
    The fun starts around 8pm. Enjoy.

  10. Steve777

    I think the ALP already complained – the AEC ruled that words like labor and liberal are not exclusive. Which is why they allowed the Liberal Democratic Party. The DLP argued that the U in their new spelling further distinguished them from the ALP.

    But I do find it amusing that the DLP’s main election strategy seems to be to try and fool just a few percent of voters in an Upper House seat somewhere (preferably one where they are ahead of Labor on the ballot paper) into thinking they are casting a vote for Labor. In other words, they have finally realised that their policies and even their name are such an anathema to Australians in the 21st Century that they are trying to hide them, as otherwise they would be unelectable.

  11. Having attended King Lear (and left at half time), let me say that I did not notice any sexual harrassment on the stage! However, I did notice a hell of a lot of poor acting. The whole thing was a shambles. Not one of the actors was able to say a Shakespearean line in a clear and intelligible manner. Geoffrey, it sure as hell was not worth the trouble.

  12. A long time ago, names were listed on ballot papers in alphabetical order of candidate name without party affiliation, a polite fiction that the punters were voting for the man*, not the party. Back then, the DLP were often accused of choosing candidates with surnames starting with A or at least early in the alphabet.

    * nearly always

  13. ‘The initial $3.9 billion injection will be diverted from an existing Building Australia infrastructure fund – also managed by the Future Fund. The policy will require legislation and the government will immediately seek Labor’s support.’

    So the ‘Drought fund’ – supposedly a secure stack of money which can be relied on in the future – will come from another fund. Which suggests that, when another crisis arises, there’ll be another fund, which will take money from the Drought Fund….

  14. Good morning all,

    Morrison and his two hour drought summit today. Another cash splash by Morrison for ” drought relief “.

    $5 billion into drought fund. Bells and whistles yahoo !

    However, the money will not roll out until 2020.

    Cheers and a great day for all.

  15. Steve777

    The other thing that used to happen in that system was so the occasional stooge independent candidate with the same surname as one of the major party candidates.

    I think in India they have the relevant party symbol next to each candidate. But no doubt if that were the case in Australia, smaller parties would come up with symbols as close as allowable to bigger parties.

  16. Good Morning

    A motion to create a federal anti-corruption commission could test the Coalition’s control of Federal Parliament as it prepares for minority government.

    Key points:

    Senator Waters expects the motion would pass with the support of Labor
    Kerryn Phelps says she sees the creation of such a body “as something that is very achievable”
    Christian Porter has previously said there was no persuasive evidence for a national integrity commission
    Greens senator Larissa Waters believes there is now majority support for a national body, with the Liberal Party likely to lose the historically safe seat of Wentworth to independent Kerryn Phelps.

    All six crossbench MPs have indicated they would support a national commission and Federal Labor has already pledged to establish one if elected at the next election.

    To test the numbers, the Greens will introduce a Senate motion calling on the Coalition to “establish a national anti-corruption commission”.

  17. so far 10 pipe bombs have been intercepted in the US.

    The people involved would appear to be supporters of Trump. But how does doing this help Trump, especially before the midterms? Whatever message they are attempting to send, it wont help Trump or the Republicans. Unless they dont care, but want anarchy.

    Also, these sorts of things do escalate. It could reach a point where one of these bombs do go off and people are hurt and/or killed. How does that help Trump and the Republicans.

  18. Victoria

    It helps Trump if you listen to his rhetoric of there will be chaos if the GOP lose the midterms as he has said at rallies.

    Thats as close to sense I can get from irrational violent acts.

  19. Richard Kingsford has suggested that one of the things farmers and agriculturalists need is improved predictions of drought. So naturally the LNP is reducing funds available to Bureau of Meteorology.

    Australia’s European heritage mentality of exploiting and controlling land and water must change. We need to plan for our continuing cycle of drought, particularly as it gets worse, by using finite natural and financial resources to best support a sustainable agricultural sector, including improved alignment between our tax policies for farmers and their dependent industries and our climate and alleviate the worrying decline in health of our inland rivers.

    Many farmers are leading the way, respecting the rhythms of our environment on which we all depend. In its latest drought policy, AgForce, the premier farmers’ organisation in Queensland, calls on empowerment, mutual obligation with governments, continuous improvement including improved predictions of drought, scientific-based policy and progressive adaptation in its eight principles, while recognising the importance of healthy environments to all of us. Our political leaders need to listen.

  20. guytaur

    Of course Trump’s rhetoric has encouraged this conduct. No doubt these people have wanted to manifest what Trump has basically directed and instructed over time. So indirectly Trump is responsible for influencing these people in such a way.

  21. If there was any truth to the Swetnick allegations they will be uncovered. What happens to Kavanaugh then?

    Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Charles E. Grassley (R-Iowa) on Thursday referred lawyer Michael Avenatti and Julie Swetnick — one of the women who accused now-Supreme Court Justice Brett M. Kavanaugh of misconduct — to the Department of Justice for a criminal probe, alleging that they made “materially false” statements to Grassley’s committee as it investigated the allegations.

    Swetnick said in a September affidavit that Kavanaugh attended a 1982 house party during which she says she was gang raped — an accusation Kavanaugh vehemently denied and said was from the “Twilight Zone.” Grassley said he is asking the Justice Department to look into whether Swetnick and Avenatti potentially conspired to give materially false statements to Congress and obstruct a congressional investigation.

  22. Victoria

    Yep. I think its the most political assanisations attempted at one time. Confessions is exactly right it is terrorism

  23. The person sending bombs through the US mail service is most likely, like the Unabomber before them, a middle-aged white male who is somewhat unhinged and thus unlikely to be rationally considering the effects of their actions on the midterm elections.

    I expect the FBI will track them down, particularly as the package to Soros was hand-delivered if I heard correctly.

  24. Vic:

    Unless they really think Swetnick/Avenatti lies will be uncovered, I don’t see the point of investigating further.

  25. fess

    and you gotta ask why didnt Grassley refer the other women who made allegations against Kavanaugh.
    Only focussed on Avenatti and his client.

  26. Steve Schmidt Just Made A Brilliant Case For Trump Inciting Terrorism

    Donald Trump did not mail the bombs, but he created the atmosphere where a sick person would look at those individuals and see an enemy. Trump makes no pretense about being the commander in chief of all of the country, being president of all of the people, including the people that voted against him. He is in effect a tribal chieftain who has declared war on half of the country. When he incites by attacking and stigmatizing vulnerable minority populations, alleging conspiracy, calling his opponents enemies of the people, calling journalists enemies of the people, what is it that we do to enemies? How do we deal with an enemy when we invoke martial analogies? We kill enemies. And someone out there took him both literally and seriously.

  27. AB11
    I stayed till the end. Robyn Nevin as Fool turned in a shocker.
    I guess the inappropriate touching occurred when Lear carried in Cordelia’s body at the very end – so if it occurred you missed it

  28. On reports thus far it would seem the mail bombs are the work of one person.

    The FBI said the packages found so far had shared characteristics, including manila envelopes with bubble-wrapped interiors. They all also had a half-dozen Forever stamps, computer-printed address labels and return addresses bearing the misspelled name of Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.), who chaired the Democratic National Committee during part of the 2016 presidential campaign. Officials do not think she had anything to do with the packages and believe she was a possible victim.

  29. guytaur

    It is terrorism, and they may not stop until someone is hurt or killed. As that will denote success in their minds.

  30. And of course President Man Baby cannot act responsibly. Or simply stay silent.

    Trump decried the bombs in remarks at the White House on Wednesday, then hours later at a rally in Wisconsin, he blamed the media and others for incivility in the country. He continued on that theme Thursday morning with a tweet that did not directly mention the explosives but said that “A very big part of the Anger we see today in our society is caused by the purposely false and inaccurate reporting of the Mainstream Media that I refer to as Fake News.”

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