BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor

After a period in which most national polls have come in at 53-47, the BludgerTrack aggregate begins to follow suit.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate records a solid move to the Coalition this week on two-party preferred, off a miserably low base, with the one new national data point from Essential Research being relatively good for them, and the worst of their results from after the leadership change washing out of the system. The 0.8% movement on two-party preferred yields the Coalition a gain of two on the seat projection, with one apiece in Queensland and Western Australia. The state numbers have been updated with the breakdowns released this week by Newspoll, along with the usual unpublished breakdowns from Essential. No new numbers for the leadership ratings this week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

908 thoughts on “BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor”

Comments Page 2 of 19
1 2 3 … 19

  1. Victoria

    Yes. IF I was going to do such a thing I would follow the Taliban example and target voting booths and lower turnout to help the GOP.

    Thats how irrational this violent set of acts are. They are designed purely on the basis of shutting up those who are speaking out. All targets of Trump aggressive campaign rally rhetoric at rallies.

  4. Confessions,

    I have just emailed you again. When I logged in this morning the email I sent yesterday popped up as “not sent”. Apologies for that. My email is not always reliable which is really annoying

  6. Steve77
    Truly shocking. The ALP would never do such a thing. Although their 1955 NSW Senate team was lead by Armour, Armstrong and Arnold

  13. Dave Sharma goes back to his day job after Wentworth by-election

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/margin-call/dave-sharma-goes-back-to-his-day-job-after-wentworth-byelection/news-story/7a0c18a75740fce9ef3af1f9ef077df3

    https://outline.com/mvUPLK

    “If the people of Wentworth don’t want Dave Sharma to work for them, I’m more than happy to have him come back to work for us,” entrepreneurial ­accountant Brett Kelly told Margin Call last month, ahead of the race to replace Malcolm Turnbull.

    And, to PM Scott Morrison’s great disappointment, that’s exactly what has happened.

    Margin Call understands Sharma was yesterday back at his day job running the ASX-listed Kelly Partners government relations practice, which was built around our former ambassador to Israel’s impressive contact book.

    The aspiring Liberal politician runs the government relations arm of the wider $56 million accountancy firm out of the same Sydney CBD tower in which John Howard — one of Sharma’s key backers during the by-election — has his post-prime ministerial office.

    Other items in the article include:-

    The task ahead

    Will incoming AMP boss Francesco De Ferrari have second thoughts about his move to ­Sydney?

    AGL’s hunt for CEO

    Broken bromance

    Casino billionaire James Packer has left a litany of failed personal and professional relationships in his wake.

    And that’s the nooze from the back blocks of Newcastle with a party cloudy day – temperature 19℃ – breeze SSW 21 kph.

    Mine eyes have seen the glory and although I am becoming more short sighted – glaucoma and cataract measures not required.

    I will pray to the Volcano Gods – and – the Goats of the Inland that short sightedness does not cause LNP voting.

    HELP – – What is an entrepreneurial ­accountant ❓

  14. guytaur says:

    Victoria

    Yep. I think its the most political assanisations attempted at one time.

    From what I’ve read they are not real bombs. At least one was reported as being filled with just sulphur powder.

  15. Poroti

    Law enforcement officials in these press conferences try not to give away too much, but here’s some telling points from New York Police Department commissioner James O’Neill.

    He makes a point of saying that investigators do not believe the bombs are hoaxes.

    He expresses high praise for all the law enforcement bodies involved in the investigation.

    And, without any prompting, he praises the media for showing images of the suspect packages, which prompted the retired detective to call the emergency services in the pre-dawn hours this morning because the pictures he was seeing on his TV resembled a package he had intercepted on its way to De Niro.

    “I would like to thank him for doing his job correctly,” O’Neill says and, then, directed at the gathered members of the press – aka the mainstream media – he notes: “Thank you for getting it

    the images

    out there.”

    The word Trump is never mentioned. But the president has made great sport over mocking the federal intelligence agencies and the media.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2018/oct/25/pipe-bombs-suspicous-packages-robert-de-niro-latest-live-updates-explosive-devices

    The update scotches those reports. 🙂

  17. Oak et steve
    Truly shocking. The ALP would never do such a thing. Although their 1955 NSW Senate team was lead by Armour, Armstrong and Arnold.

    They used to be called ‘the A_ end of Parliament’! there was also a Senator Aylett, IIRC, whose chief competence was alphabetical.
    The leader of the ALP in the Senate for many years was a Senator for Tasmania who lived in Sydney, & was born in Melbourne. He was competent, although of middle rank alphabetically

  18. “HELP – – What is an entrepreneurial ­accountant ❓”

    It should be a contradiction in terms, but I don’t think it is……

  21. The Rum Rebellion continues unabated. Cop a loan of $850 million for a few years in the land of anything goes, appoint a couple of layabouts as advisors, elect a moron as nominal CEO, lock up the dissidents on a remote island (1788 ) and provide every household with a poker machine.
    Gladys presented an original idea to build some high speed rail and whatshisname spruiker wants to put in place some permanent post drought rorts. Tonight we’ll hear about the plan to build some more coal-fired power stations to reduce power bills and throw in some corporate tax cuts to add to the non-existent corporate governance.
    Cynical, such outrageous audacity on my part.

  22. A rogue state in the making?
    Time we started to distance ourselves from the US whirlpool, lest we get sucked in so far we cannot get out and retain any of our sovereignty.
    https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/25/john-bolton-trump-white-house-foreign-policy-938604

    Out of the Paris accord, out of the Nuclear disarmament treaty, out of the UN agencies, out of trade deals, prefers the money to morality w.r.t Saudi Arabia; what more evidence do states need to decide that the US is not worth any respect.

  23. pica @ #68 Friday, October 26th, 2018 – 9:40 am

    “HELP – – What is an entrepreneurial ­accountant ❓”

    It should be a contradiction in terms, but I don’t think it is……

    For another mystery of the mind I began to think of..

    Who Killed Nancy in Oliver Twist and why?

    Nancy (Oliver Twist) Nancy is a fictional character in the novel Oliver Twist and its numerous theatre, television and motion picture adaptations. She is a member of Fagin’s gang and the lover, and eventual victim, of Bill Sikes.

    Which lead to

    Fagin
    Fictional character

    Fagin is a fictional character in Charles Dickens’s novel Oliver Twist. In the preface to the novel, he is described as a “receiver of stolen goods”. He is the leader of a group of children whom he teaches to make their livings by pickpocketing and other criminal activities, in exchange for shelter. Wikipedia

    You’ve Got to Pick a Pocket or Two (from: “Oliver!” – 1968)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VogHwP0C5VY

    And so – back to more lawn mowing. 🎕🎕🎕🎕🎕

  25. Oh Dear.

    Morrison’s drought summit has the Bureau of Meteorology highlighting increased temperatures contributing to drought. This year a bronze year for dryness. On News 24 now

  28. ABC radio news spruiking Morrison for all it’s worth. Apparently he is working behind the scenes on getting the children off Nauru, instead of engaging in base politics like the Labor party.

    Also notice whenever this issue is framed, it is usually a problem of ‘politics’ NOT this particular government, that is actually, you know, responsible for government policy.

  29. Pica

    Entrepreneurial accountants are otherwise known as non-GP doctors. Many Specialists are in fact “good doctors” but a large proportion are entrepreneurs with certain medical skills relevant to particular Medicare items …. often of a surgical nature.

    An example is my partner’s opthalmic surgeon, who charges a “booking fee” (not recognised by Medicare or funds or Dr Unions) of $850 per eye for cataract surgery. He specialises in this and does 25+ a day, 3 days a week …. 15 minutes each. So he takes in about $60K a week, not counting Medicare rebates.

  31. Oakeshott Country @ #44 Friday, October 26th, 2018 – 8:38 am

    AB11
    I stayed till the end. Robyn Nevin as Fool turned in a shocker.
    I guess the inappropriate touching occurred when Lear carried in Cordelia’s body at the very end – so if it occurred you missed it

    It was nothing if not interesting. And Max Cullen’s Earl of Gloucester, unintelligible for the most part and one could speculate whys and wherefores, was essentially a genius act of mime, alone worth the ticket price.

    A clip from the relevant scene is in this link – WARNING – Daily Telecrap

    https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/national/raw-geoffrey-rush-in-stc-king-lear-rehearsal/video/ad1842be4b9a403642a762eacb9372a6

  32. The Victorian Liberal Party and its primary financier, the Cormack Foundation, reached a peace agreement Friday morning that will give the party $8.5 million to fight state election and federal elections.

    In an agreement negotiated by Treasurer Josh Frydenberg with Victorian party treasurer David Mond, who are members of the same Melbourne synagogue, the $68 million fund will keep its independence but accept two directors nominated by the Liberal Party.

    The party has decided to nominate former prime minister John Howard and former federal communications minister Richard Alston, and the fund has accepted them, according to sources on both sides.

    In return the party will be given $2.5 million to fight the Victorian election, which will be held on November 24, and $3 million for the federal election, which is due next year, sources said. There will also be $3 million promised for the following federal election, one source said….

    https://www.afr.com/news/politics/liberals-strike-85m-peace-deal-with-big-donor-20181025-h174bc

  33. Rocket Rocket:

    Morrison is flailing around – he has been unbelievably chaotic since his elevation. I expected him to aim for a low profile, sort of like Lindsay Thompson in Victoria after Dick Hamer resigned. Thompson at least maintained his dignity in the face of the Liberals losing office after 27 years – Morrison is making a fool of himself on a daily basis. You would think that if you only had nine months in your life as PM you would not want to look like a joke, and would want some sort of at least neutral image for posterity.

    I think there’s a simple reason for this. Morrison isn’t trying to save the furniture or go out with dignity. He’s deluded himself that he can actually win the next election. Most likely, the whole reason he nominated for the leadership (and, if the rumors are true, agitated against Turnbull using Dutton as his patsy) was out of the belief that his obviously vast political acumen could turn things around.

    So, like many doomed leaders before him, instead of focusing on the sort of boring, stable government that probably couldn’t pull off a win but would at least minimize the damage, Morrison’s throwing every crazy thing he can think of at the wall in his attempts to change the narrative. If the polls fails to tighten, expect more brain-farts and blunders and misguided captain’s calls as he becomes increasingly desperate.

    Rudd in 2013 was much the same, in my view. Yes, he talks a lot about saving the furniture since then, but it was pretty obvious during the campaign that he really badly wanted to win it, and that he became increasingly frustrated and undisciplined the more obvious it became that he was going to lose.

  34. Given this is a ATM government perhaps we should call Scrott ‘Morrison the Third’. Preferably spoken with a French or Québécois accent.

  35. On the DLP shenanigans, it would be fine if their name on the ballot was something like “Democratic Labour Party (DLP)” or whatever. But its hard to see “Labour DLP” as anything other than an Asylum Films-esque ploy to get inattentive Labor supporters into voting for them.

  38. A meaningless King Lear anecdote:
    When my avatar died his career received very censorious reviews from the SMH and DT. During the condolence debate, Bertie James, his successor as the Member for Hunter, quoted Kent’s speech while courtiers are attempting to revive the dying Lear:

    Oh Vex not his ghost. Oh let him pass. He loves not he that would upon the rack of this rough world would stretch him out the longer

    This is interesting because before joining the Caucus Bertie had been a seargent in the NSW Police and it was said that his move had improved the average IQ of both organisations by 10%. Bert’s favourite books were Larry and Stretch cowboy novellas; so either he suddenly found an interest in Shakespeare or someone wrote the speech for him.

  40. I’m a little late to the story – can anyone clue me in on what is happening with Luke Foley in NSW?

    I’ve seen that allegations were raised in Parliament, under privilege, but that he strenuously denies them?

  46. Diogenes

    Yes, and I did so.

    As I said, some Specialists are very good. My opthalmic (who is now my partner’s too) and our ENT are both aged about 38-42, have excellent patient communication skills and are extremely competent. They are both worth whatever they charge, but neither is a gouger (financially or surgically).

    Thnx

  47. Avenatti Hits Back After GOP Accuses Him Of Kavanaugh Smears: ‘Start The Investigation Tonight’

    Michael Avenatti wasted no time in responding to Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley, who referred Avenatti and his client Julie Swetnick to the Department of Justice for a criminal investigation on Thursday.

    The lawyer and potential 2020 presidential candidate took to Twitter to respond to the Republican senator, telling Grassley that he’s happy to “start the investigation tonight.”

    “I will make my client available for a sworn interview and you can make Judge Kavanaugh available for a sworn interview,” Avenatti said. “We also have 9 other witnesses we want interviewed and specific documents we want requested. Let’s go.”

    “This is clearly political,” the lawyer said. “And fortunately for us, Senator Grassley isn’t too smart – or I should say bright. This was a major mistake on his part. He just cracked open the door and I’m going to drive a Mack Truck through it.”

    https://www.politicususa.com/2018/10/25/avenatti-hits-back-after-gop-accuses-him-of-kavanaugh-smears-start-the-investigation-tonight.html

  48. Psyclaw
    They charge a booking fee instead of a gap because they sign up to a scheme with the health fund where the health fund pays them extra (about 30%) as an incentive for not charging a gap. So they collect that bonus and charge a “booking fee” instead. It’s grossly dishonest and greedy.

  49. “This is clearly political,” the lawyer said. “And fortunately for us, Senator Grassley isn’t too smart – or I should say bright. This was a major mistake on his part. He just cracked open the door and I’m going to drive a Mack Truck through it.”

    I wonder at the sum total of benefit to Avenatti to the anti Trump cause.

Comments Page 2 of 19
1 2 3 … 19

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *