Not the Wentworth by-election thread

Some preselection news, and a thread for discussion of political matters not directly related to the Wentworth by-election count.

For discussion focused on the count for the Wentworth by-election, which turns out not to have been as over as you thought it was last night, the live results thread is still in action. For general political discussion, I offer the following post, with my usual semi-regular updates of preselection news.

Phillip Coorey of the Australian Financial Review reports a New South Wales Liberal Senate preselection next month is a three-way contest between Jim Molan, Andrew Bragg and Hollie Hughes. Molan found a place in the Senate last December by the grace of Section 44, after securing only the unwinnable seventh position on the Coalition ticket at the 2016 double dissolution, to the chagrin of conservatives including Tony Abbott. Then followed the disqualification of Nationals Senator Fiona Nash, followed by the determination that the sixth candidate on the ticket, the aforesaid Hollie Hughes, was likewise ineligible due to a position she had taken on the Administrative Affairs Tribunal. Now it appears Molan is primed to take top spot, and since the third position is reserved for the Nationals, this leaves two and four to be fought out between Bragg, whose decision to withdraw himself from consideration for preselection in Wentworth is now looking pretty good, and Hughes, whose Section 44 complication is behind her.

• The Port Macquarie News reports three candidates have nominated to succeed retiring Luke Hartsuyker as Nationals candidate for Cowper: Patrick Conaghan, a former police officer and North Sydney councillor who now works locally as a solicitor; Chris Genders, a newsagent; and Jamie Harrison, former Port Macquarie-Hastings councillor and owner of an electrical business.

• The Burnie Advocate reports Gavin Pearce, who has been described as a “farmer and ex-defence force member”, has been preselected as Liberal candidate for Braddon ahead of “Devonport business identity Stacey Sheehan and property developer Kent Townsend”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,550 comments on “Not the Wentworth by-election thread”

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  1. Kooyong, Vic, 13.3%
    Higgins, Vic, 8%
    Goldstein, Vic, 13.7%
    _______________
    MT would definitely have been better liked in these seats than Morrison, but there is no chance the libs will lose any of them

    Maths not your strong point? All these numbers are less than 18%. At 18% you will keep Murry and four others.
    Come on give us Dutten, you could push it further than that.

  2. Albo is wrong. The reason the Liberals have a fundamental problem is because they have no policy platform from which to engage with people.

  3. frednk
    says:
    Monday, October 22, 2018 at 9:43 pm

    Kooyong, Vic, 13.3%
    Higgins, Vic, 8%
    Goldstein, Vic, 13.7%
    _______________
    MT would definitely have been better liked in these seats than Morrison, but there is no chance the libs will lose any of them

    Maths not your strong point? All these numbers are less than 18%. At 18% you will keep Murry and four others.
    Come on give us Dutten, you could push it further than that.
    _______________________
    Math’s isn’t my strong point but if any of those 3 seats fall to the ALP I will personally smash my left testicle with a hammer.

  4. Math’s isn’t my strong point but if any of those 3 seats fall to the ALP I will personally smash my left testicle with a hammer.

    ______________________________

    EVERYBODY. Please do not provide a response! Let the desperation for attention just hang out there….

  5. IoM
    says:
    Monday, October 22, 2018 at 9:48 pm
    Nath
    What if the Greens fluked Higgins? Would you still smash your nut?
    ________________________________
    Well I did say ALP, but sure, if Greens win, consider nut smashed.

  6. nath

    Math’s isn’t my strong point but if any of those 3 seats fall to the ALP I will personally smash my left testicle with a hammer.

    No don’t do that .At least make some money from your sacrifice. There would be people on this blog willing to pay loads for the ‘privilege’ 🙂

  7. My information is that Higgins is most definitely in play for Labor assisted by Green preferencing

    The swings are in double digit territory

    And in this climate the collateral fear is the field of Independents in any seat and their preferences sapping further support from Liberal candidates

  8. TPOF
    EVERYBODY. Please do not provide a response! Let the desperation for attention just hang out there….
    _________________
    You just reposted my last post genius.

  9. Observer
    says:
    Monday, October 22, 2018 at 9:51 pm
    My information is that Higgins is most definitely in play for Labor assisted by Green preferencing
    __________________
    You mean Higgins is in play for the Greens on ALP preferences?

  10. PvO is such good value as a commentator. He lays out the lie that the Liberals are opposed to quotas by pointing out they willingly accept quotas for everything except gender.

  11. Labor will clean up in the marginals…anything on margins of 6-7% will be vulnerable.

    There are many safe LNP-held seats where Labor are unlikely to be able to win, but where Independents can prosper.

    I hope that Independents emerge to contest LNP- held safe seats. They can hack deeply into the LNP PV, putting House seats at risk of loss and chewing into the LNP’s senate tallies.

    If ever a Party deserved to be overthrown it is the LNP. They are decadent, reactionary, incompetent and arrogant.

  12. nath says:
    Monday, October 22, 2018 at 9:32 pm
    Michael A
    says:
    Monday, October 22, 2018 at 9:20 pm
    Nath, I just don’t see how you can think what you’re saying is helping. Nor can I see how it is a ‘good faith’ effort at subjecting thoughts to constructive feedback. So, I can’t see a benign purpose behind what you type. Can you please show me where I am wrong?
    ___________________________
    I’m not responding to you after this post. The last time you asked me a reasonable question I gave you an honest and pretty detailed response and then you ran around like a headless chook screaming that I was a conservative who wanted to attack the ‘undeserving poor’. I don’t block people because I consider that stupid. So consider yourself ‘skipped over’ from now on.
    ————————————-

    Nath, I politely ask you a perfectly reasonable set of questions, and your response is to announce you will shut your eyes and stuff your fingers in your ears next time I discuss something with you. I wonder what triggers you so much about what I asked.

  13. Re the Invictus Games, I cannot helped thinking how they serve to distract from the evil of those who ordered the service people to place themselves at risk in totally unnecessary conflicts.
    I have respect for all workers, and workers who are injured in their line of work deserve any kudos they get, and military people are specialized workers.
    If I was one of the bad overlords, I would dream up a project like the Invictus Games to make the sufferers heroes, and who would I invite to be the figurehead? Why Prince Harry would be ideal.
    Call me cynical if you want.

  14. Ruddock misses the point. The children in Nauru and Manus are in Australian facilities and are therefore our responsibility.

    These dinosaurs need to retire.

  15. “I’ll see your couple of dozen on Nauru, and raise you a million in Burma,” says a passionate Rudfick.

    “And by the way… whaddaya think of THAT dead cat?” He continues.

  16. It will be very interesting to see what happens in seats like Higgins. If voters want to give effect to a desire to change the government they will vote Labor. If they think Labor will fall short or they want to frustrate change they may stick with the G.

    They way things are st the moment, voters will go for change…in overwhelming numbers.

  17. Confessions @ #1379 Monday, October 22nd, 2018 – 7:46 pm

    I love Ellinghausen’s photos. Here he captures Gillard looking forward to the future, not looking back at the past. Rudd could learn a thing or two from her.

    Alex Ellinghausen@ellinghausen
    8m8 minutes ago
    Former PM Julia Gillard enters the Great Hall of Parliament House for an address to survivors of institutional child sexual abuse

    ” rel=”nofollow”>:large

    Great picture. 🙂

  18. If people didn’t discuss me so much maybe I wouldn’t be so famous around here. Reminds me of an Eminem song:

    Now this looks like a job for me
    So everybody just follow me
    ‘Cause we need a little controversy
    ‘Cause it feels so empty without me
    I said, this looks like a job for me
    So everybody just follow me
    ‘Cause we need a little controversy
    ‘Cause it feels so empty without me
    A-tiskit a-taskit,
    I go tit for tat with anybody who’s talking this shit and that shit
    Well I’m back, nana-na na na nana-na na na kshh
    Fix your bent antenna, tune it in and then I’m gonna enter in endin’ up
    Under your skin like a splinter
    The center of attention back for the winter
    I’m interesting, the best thing since wrestling
    Infesting in your kids ears and nesting
    “Testing attention please”
    Feel the tension soon as someone mentions me
    Here’s my ten cents, my two cents is free

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YVkUvmDQ3HY

  19. Reports the Saudi Crown Prince rang Kashoggi while he was in the embassy, telling him to return to Saudi if he knew what was good for. He refused and the Prince told them to kill him.

  20. zoom….what do you think about the chances of Independents in safe Lib-held seats in Victori, other than Indi?

    Or is this vulnerability peculiar to a couple of opportunities in NSW?

  21. zoom:

    He was introduced as the state Liberal president or similar.

    Time for the party to activate meaningful generational change.

  22. Confessions says:
    Monday, October 22, 2018 at 10:13 pm
    Ruddock looks so unhappy.

    It’s well past his bedtime….surprised he’s still capable of speech

  23. TPOF @ #1410 Monday, October 22nd, 2018 – 9:49 pm

    Math’s isn’t my strong point but if any of those 3 seats fall to the ALP I will personally smash my left testicle with a hammer.

    ______________________________

    EVERYBODY. Please do not provide a response! Let the desperation for attention just hang out there….

    I feel so much better now that I have taken TPOF’s advice.

    Anyway, nath doesn’t have any balls. 🙂

  24. Diogenes

    You would assume the Saudis would use very secure lines. Most able to intercept would be the NSA. I’m wondering how much of the stuff Turkey is releasing comes from US sources.

  25. Federal Independent MP Cathy McGowan has said that she may no longer continue to support Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s minority government in the event that Michael McCormack is ousted as leader of the National Party.

    According to a report in the Financial Review, Ms McGowan on Monday warned that she may renege on her commitment of supply and confidence for the government, amid speculation that former National Party leader and Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce could make a push for his old position.

  26. IoM, you see, Nath doesn’t understand how debates work. If he is triggered by the reasonable questions I asked him about his views, he has an even more fragile glass jaw than I thought.

    Fancy calling my tone “screaming like a headless chook”!

  27. briefly

    Love to have an answer, but I don’t – it depends on the individual electorate. The kind of candidate who is capable of winning as an independent is a fairly rare bird – it has to be someone who already has some kind of profile across the electorate. There’s probably only a handful of those in each electorate.

    Look at it this way – there were several independents running in Wentworth. If Phelps hadn’t won, none of them would have.

    So, yes, there might be Liberal seats in Victoria which might fall to An Independent, but what is impossible to predict is whether they have one and whether that person is prepared to run.

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