For discussion focused on the count for the Wentworth by-election, which turns out not to have been as over as you thought it was last night, the live results thread is still in action. For general political discussion, I offer the following post, with my usual semi-regular updates of preselection news.
• Phillip Coorey of the Australian Financial Review reports a New South Wales Liberal Senate preselection next month is a three-way contest between Jim Molan, Andrew Bragg and Hollie Hughes. Molan found a place in the Senate last December by the grace of Section 44, after securing only the unwinnable seventh position on the Coalition ticket at the 2016 double dissolution, to the chagrin of conservatives including Tony Abbott. Then followed the disqualification of Nationals Senator Fiona Nash, followed by the determination that the sixth candidate on the ticket, the aforesaid Hollie Hughes, was likewise ineligible due to a position she had taken on the Administrative Affairs Tribunal. Now it appears Molan is primed to take top spot, and since the third position is reserved for the Nationals, this leaves two and four to be fought out between Bragg, whose decision to withdraw himself from consideration for preselection in Wentworth is now looking pretty good, and Hughes, whose Section 44 complication is behind her.
• The Port Macquarie News reports three candidates have nominated to succeed retiring Luke Hartsuyker as Nationals candidate for Cowper: Patrick Conaghan, a former police officer and North Sydney councillor who now works locally as a solicitor; Chris Genders, a newsagent; and Jamie Harrison, former Port Macquarie-Hastings councillor and owner of an electrical business.
• The Burnie Advocate reports Gavin Pearce, who has been described as a “farmer and ex-defence force member”, has been preselected as Liberal candidate for Braddon ahead of “Devonport business identity Stacey Sheehan and property developer Kent Townsend”.
Ruddock’s the one giving me nightmares.
Kooyong, Vic, 13.3%
Higgins, Vic, 8%
Goldstein, Vic, 13.7%
_______________
MT would definitely have been better liked in these seats than Morrison, but there is no chance the libs will lose any of them
Maths not your strong point? All these numbers are less than 18%. At 18% you will keep Murry and four others.
Come on give us Dutten, you could push it further than that.
Fess…I think you could be right about Forrest.
Confessions
Praise teh lord for ‘Outline’ Bookmark it.
https://outline.com/
Geez Tony Jones is such a smartass.
Albo is wrong. The reason the Liberals have a fundamental problem is because they have no policy platform from which to engage with people.
frednk @ #1402 Monday, October 22nd, 2018 – 9:43 pm
The largest component of that 18% was because of the knifing of their hero Mal the Magnificent. Nothing like that is going to happen in any other seat.
frednk
says:
Monday, October 22, 2018 at 9:43 pm
Kooyong, Vic, 13.3%
Higgins, Vic, 8%
Goldstein, Vic, 13.7%
_______________
MT would definitely have been better liked in these seats than Morrison, but there is no chance the libs will lose any of them
Maths not your strong point? All these numbers are less than 18%. At 18% you will keep Murry and four others.
Come on give us Dutten, you could push it further than that.
_______________________
Math’s isn’t my strong point but if any of those 3 seats fall to the ALP I will personally smash my left testicle with a hammer.
Nath
What if the Greens fluked Higgins? Would you still smash your nut?
Math’s isn’t my strong point but if any of those 3 seats fall to the ALP I will personally smash my left testicle with a hammer.
______________________________
EVERYBODY. Please do not provide a response! Let the desperation for attention just hang out there….
IoM
says:
Monday, October 22, 2018 at 9:48 pm
Nath
What if the Greens fluked Higgins? Would you still smash your nut?
________________________________
Well I did say ALP, but sure, if Greens win, consider nut smashed.
nath
No don’t do that .At least make some money from your sacrifice. There would be people on this blog willing to pay loads for the ‘privilege’ 🙂
My information is that Higgins is most definitely in play for Labor assisted by Green preferencing
The swings are in double digit territory
And in this climate the collateral fear is the field of Independents in any seat and their preferences sapping further support from Liberal candidates
TPOF
EVERYBODY. Please do not provide a response! Let the desperation for attention just hang out there….
_________________
You just reposted my last post genius.
Observer
says:
Monday, October 22, 2018 at 9:51 pm
My information is that Higgins is most definitely in play for Labor assisted by Green preferencing
__________________
You mean Higgins is in play for the Greens on ALP preferences?
PvO is such good value as a commentator. He lays out the lie that the Liberals are opposed to quotas by pointing out they willingly accept quotas for everything except gender.
Labor will clean up in the marginals…anything on margins of 6-7% will be vulnerable.
There are many safe LNP-held seats where Labor are unlikely to be able to win, but where Independents can prosper.
I hope that Independents emerge to contest LNP- held safe seats. They can hack deeply into the LNP PV, putting House seats at risk of loss and chewing into the LNP’s senate tallies.
If ever a Party deserved to be overthrown it is the LNP. They are decadent, reactionary, incompetent and arrogant.
Confessions @ #1416 Monday, October 22nd, 2018 – 9:54 pm
They have certainly exceeded their quota of idiots.
nath says:
Monday, October 22, 2018 at 9:32 pm
Michael A
says:
Monday, October 22, 2018 at 9:20 pm
Nath, I just don’t see how you can think what you’re saying is helping. Nor can I see how it is a ‘good faith’ effort at subjecting thoughts to constructive feedback. So, I can’t see a benign purpose behind what you type. Can you please show me where I am wrong?
___________________________
I’m not responding to you after this post. The last time you asked me a reasonable question I gave you an honest and pretty detailed response and then you ran around like a headless chook screaming that I was a conservative who wanted to attack the ‘undeserving poor’. I don’t block people because I consider that stupid. So consider yourself ‘skipped over’ from now on.
————————————-
Nath, I politely ask you a perfectly reasonable set of questions, and your response is to announce you will shut your eyes and stuff your fingers in your ears next time I discuss something with you. I wonder what triggers you so much about what I asked.
Higgins 2016 results…. TCP lib vs greens
https://results.aec.gov.au/20499/Website/HouseDivisionPage-20499-215.htm
Phelps is a confident speaker.
Michael A @ #1419 Monday, October 22nd, 2018 – 9:59 pm
Never look a gift horse in the mouth!
Re the Invictus Games, I cannot helped thinking how they serve to distract from the evil of those who ordered the service people to place themselves at risk in totally unnecessary conflicts.
I have respect for all workers, and workers who are injured in their line of work deserve any kudos they get, and military people are specialized workers.
If I was one of the bad overlords, I would dream up a project like the Invictus Games to make the sufferers heroes, and who would I invite to be the figurehead? Why Prince Harry would be ideal.
Call me cynical if you want.
Ruddock misses the point. The children in Nauru and Manus are in Australian facilities and are therefore our responsibility.
These dinosaurs need to retire.
“I’ll see your couple of dozen on Nauru, and raise you a million in Burma,” says a passionate Rudfick.
“And by the way… whaddaya think of THAT dead cat?” He continues.
Ruddock epitomises all that is wrong with the Liberals.
It will be very interesting to see what happens in seats like Higgins. If voters want to give effect to a desire to change the government they will vote Labor. If they think Labor will fall short or they want to frustrate change they may stick with the G.
They way things are st the moment, voters will go for change…in overwhelming numbers.
Confessions @ #1379 Monday, October 22nd, 2018 – 7:46 pm
Great picture. 🙂
My god I detest Tony ‘smarmy’ Jones. He can actually make Ruddock’s position sound reasonable because of his hectoring.
If people didn’t discuss me so much maybe I wouldn’t be so famous around here. Reminds me of an Eminem song:
Now this looks like a job for me
So everybody just follow me
‘Cause we need a little controversy
‘Cause it feels so empty without me
I said, this looks like a job for me
So everybody just follow me
‘Cause we need a little controversy
‘Cause it feels so empty without me
A-tiskit a-taskit,
I go tit for tat with anybody who’s talking this shit and that shit
Well I’m back, nana-na na na nana-na na na kshh
Fix your bent antenna, tune it in and then I’m gonna enter in endin’ up
Under your skin like a splinter
The center of attention back for the winter
I’m interesting, the best thing since wrestling
Infesting in your kids ears and nesting
“Testing attention please”
Feel the tension soon as someone mentions me
Here’s my ten cents, my two cents is free
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YVkUvmDQ3HY
fess
Ruddock has retired. He’s talking as part of the NSW Liberal machine.
Reports the Saudi Crown Prince rang Kashoggi while he was in the embassy, telling him to return to Saudi if he knew what was good for. He refused and the Prince told them to kill him.
Ruddock looks so unhappy.
zoom….what do you think about the chances of Independents in safe Lib-held seats in Victori, other than Indi?
Or is this vulnerability peculiar to a couple of opportunities in NSW?
Nath
Maybe they are your stans?
zoom:
He was introduced as the state Liberal president or similar.
Time for the party to activate meaningful generational change.
IoM
says:
Monday, October 22, 2018 at 10:13 pm
Nath
Maybe they are your stans?
___________________
🙂
Confessions says:
Monday, October 22, 2018 at 10:13 pm
Ruddock looks so unhappy.
It’s well past his bedtime….surprised he’s still capable of speech
TPOF @ #1410 Monday, October 22nd, 2018 – 9:49 pm
I feel so much better now that I have taken TPOF’s advice.
Anyway, nath doesn’t have any balls. 🙂
Fess,
Even when he smiles Ruddock doesn’t look happy.
Ruddock is not in parliament anymore fess.
He’s just an old fogey now.
And looking very old I must say.
Diogenes
You would assume the Saudis would use very secure lines. Most able to intercept would be the NSA. I’m wondering how much of the stuff Turkey is releasing comes from US sources.
Confessions, you could also install a browser plugin called ‘NoScript’ gets around a lot of things.
Amazingly Ruddock moonlights as the Mayor of Hornsby Shire. I’m glad we left.
I remember why I rarely watch Q&A. Tony friggin’ Jones.
Ruddock has lost the plot incidentally.
Federal Independent MP Cathy McGowan has said that she may no longer continue to support Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s minority government in the event that Michael McCormack is ousted as leader of the National Party.
According to a report in the Financial Review, Ms McGowan on Monday warned that she may renege on her commitment of supply and confidence for the government, amid speculation that former National Party leader and Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce could make a push for his old position.
IoM, you see, Nath doesn’t understand how debates work. If he is triggered by the reasonable questions I asked him about his views, he has an even more fragile glass jaw than I thought.
Fancy calling my tone “screaming like a headless chook”!
The people getting angry in the usa….
https://twitter.com/marmel/status/1053739069623005185?s=21
briefly
Love to have an answer, but I don’t – it depends on the individual electorate. The kind of candidate who is capable of winning as an independent is a fairly rare bird – it has to be someone who already has some kind of profile across the electorate. There’s probably only a handful of those in each electorate.
Look at it this way – there were several independents running in Wentworth. If Phelps hadn’t won, none of them would have.
So, yes, there might be Liberal seats in Victoria which might fall to An Independent, but what is impossible to predict is whether they have one and whether that person is prepared to run.