For discussion focused on the count for the Wentworth by-election, which turns out not to have been as over as you thought it was last night, the live results thread is still in action. For general political discussion, I offer the following post, with my usual semi-regular updates of preselection news.
• Phillip Coorey of the Australian Financial Review reports a New South Wales Liberal Senate preselection next month is a three-way contest between Jim Molan, Andrew Bragg and Hollie Hughes. Molan found a place in the Senate last December by the grace of Section 44, after securing only the unwinnable seventh position on the Coalition ticket at the 2016 double dissolution, to the chagrin of conservatives including Tony Abbott. Then followed the disqualification of Nationals Senator Fiona Nash, followed by the determination that the sixth candidate on the ticket, the aforesaid Hollie Hughes, was likewise ineligible due to a position she had taken on the Administrative Affairs Tribunal. Now it appears Molan is primed to take top spot, and since the third position is reserved for the Nationals, this leaves two and four to be fought out between Bragg, whose decision to withdraw himself from consideration for preselection in Wentworth is now looking pretty good, and Hughes, whose Section 44 complication is behind her.
• The Port Macquarie News reports three candidates have nominated to succeed retiring Luke Hartsuyker as Nationals candidate for Cowper: Patrick Conaghan, a former police officer and North Sydney councillor who now works locally as a solicitor; Chris Genders, a newsagent; and Jamie Harrison, former Port Macquarie-Hastings councillor and owner of an electrical business.
• The Burnie Advocate reports Gavin Pearce, who has been described as a “farmer and ex-defence force member”, has been preselected as Liberal candidate for Braddon ahead of “Devonport business identity Stacey Sheehan and property developer Kent Townsend”.
C@t
The Jerusalem embassy move is possibly critical in one of the first examples of Scotty’s penchant for a Captain’s Call. No consultation, no advice from public servants, in fact all they were told from the PMO was break out the pooper scooper.
Scotty is drunk with power – a hypothesis which warrants examination
Former Marine Mark Ormrod from the UK won a gold for Indoor Rowing. He had amputated two legs above the knee, and half an arm. Some vision of his training for the event, in the gym, is something to see.
He was told he would never walk again but he ended up running across the USA and in this Games competes in rowing and swimming.
Nath, you completely misunderstand me if you think I write what I do out of concern for Bill Shorten’s ego or whatever. I write what I do out of:
(a) a desire to get feedback on the thoughts I am expressing; and
(b) a conviction that the future of our country depends on the defeat of the mob running it right now, and indeed that the future of the planet depends on the defeat of like-minded mobs running the UK and the USA.
But go ahead, set your sights on punching Bill in your own little personal Punch & Judy show.
Fess
It’s hard to say. He didn’t comment other than to say it had happened. Earlier in the program though he did seem to be defending Nauru as a valid way of dissuading people from coming here on boats. Whether that included keeping sick children locked up I can’t be sure.
A quote from Rudd in Saturday’s SMH
Mark Arbib, a strutting, rasp-voiced, bald-headed senator and junior minister in Rudd’s government, was also the convenor of the NSW Right faction of the Labor Party. He graduated from the Sussex Street school of political thuggery where, as state general secretary, he put a series of NSW Labor premiers into and out of power as if they were Ken and Barbie dolls. He brought his skills to Canberra.
It was Arbib’s decision to turn against Rudd that mobilised the 2010 coup and installed Julia Gillard as leader. In his book, Rudd recounts phone calls where Arbib would scream furious invective at him in attempts to get his way. He demanded Rudd dump his planned emissions trading scheme, for instance. “I told him to calm down and f… off,” Rudd recounts. Rudd says that his refusal to genuflect to Arbib cost him dearly.
What they [the student politics generation] saw in Arbib’s audacity in 2010 was to admire the craft and to see that it could succeed,” Rudd suggests. “That’s the sick part.” Or, in Rod Tiffen’s words, the coup was “tactically brilliant and strategically stupid”. Brilliant for its swift efficiency; stupid because it damned the party and degraded the nation. Arbib left politics, as Rudd puts it bitingly, to work for James Packer’s gambling business, “a moral universe” in which he would be “more than comfortable”.
Suddenly it has become clear to me. Rudd wasn’t so bad after all
Fair point puffy.
I’m all for the causes and issues invictus raises, just bemused (pun intended) the oxygen it is getting compared to other, equally worthy causes.
Maybe it’s the republican in me.
Here’s something I didn’t know. Kimberley Kitching went along with Bill on the Cuba trip!
Kitching is married to Landeryou, and the pair are extremely close to the Labor leader, not only politically but personally. Landeryou and Shorten became friends through student politics in Melbourne, while Kitching grew up in Brisbane with Shorten’s wife, Chloe. In the early 2000s Landeryou and Kitching holidayed in Cuba with Shorten and his first wife Deborah Beale, along with the late billionaire businessman Richard Pratt and his wife Jeanne.
In April 2017, Landeryou and three other men were fined $1000 each for vandalising and stealing Greens and Liberal polling material at the 2016 federal election.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/why-alp-backbencher-kimberley-kitching-may-become-a-household-name-20180301-p4z29q.html
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/joanne-mccarthy-the-situation-on-nauru-was-the-elephant-in-the-room-at-the-national-abuse-apology-20181022-p50b8c.html
“The elephant in the room made an appearance as Scott Morrison neared the end of his apology to thousands of Australians sexually abused as children in institutions over decades.
A man in the public gallery stood up and displayed his sign – “Fix Nauru then apology” – in a direct line of sight from the Prime Minister on the floor of the House of Representatives.
::::
How can we have all this for children sexually abused in institutions and be blind to what we’re actually still doing with the children of asylum seekers?” asked sexual abuse survivor and retired Hunter Uniting Church leader Wes Hartley, who did not yell at the political leaders but understood those who did.
::::
But later in the Great Hall the two leaders were roughed up by many of the hundreds of survivors who yelled their views across the speeches.
::::
“Why do the institutions still get public money?” yelled a man as Morrison talked about the need for politicians to do better.
Shorten was heckled by survivors throughout his speech, never more so than when he ventured “We use a lot of words in this place, and you can be forgiven for thinking words are cheap”.
:::
The national apology was a long time coming. And in the heckles and jeers survivors got to speak truth to power.
This is an amazing account of Putin’s mindset after he first rose to power by a true insider:
Putin’s Filmmaker Speaks, Reveals Unseen Footage of Russian Leader’s Rise to Power
Rare insight from Vitaly Mansky, a former Kremlin propagandist, paints an extraordinary portrait of a president drawn ever deeper into dictatorship.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/confessions-of-an-ex-kremlin-propagandist-dictator-putin-will-rule-forever?
Michael
a conviction that the future of our country depends on the defeat of the mob running it right now, and indeed that the future of the planet depends on the defeat of like-minded mobs running the UK and the USA.
But go ahead, set your sights on punching Bill in your own little personal Punch & Judy show.
___________________
And you think my criticism of Shorten is going to stop him being PM? I wish!
Is that all there is, then lets keep dancing!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3sWTnsemkIs
Mark Arbib, a strutting, rasp-voiced, bald-headed senator and junior minister in Rudd’s government, was also the convenor of the NSW Right faction of the Labor Party. He graduated from the Sussex Street school of political thuggery where, as state general secretary, he put a series of NSW Labor premiers into and out of power as if they were Ken and Barbie dolls. He brought his skills to Canberra.
It was Arbib’s decision to turn against Rudd that mobilised the 2010 coup and installed Julia Gillard as leader. In his book, Rudd recounts phone calls where Arbib would scream furious invective at him in attempts to get his way. He demanded Rudd dump his planned emissions trading scheme, for instance. “I told him to calm down and f… off,” Rudd recounts. Rudd says that his refusal to genuflect to Arbib cost him dearly.
Darn:
I know Price was a public and throaty supporter of Morrison’s then Dutton’s hardline approach to AS so I’d be surprised if he supported the removal of children out of detention.
I still cannot believe that Bolt et al are advocating another leadership change to Dutton! I hope they do it, as it will well and truly represent the snuffing out of whatever life is left in this pathetic, useless govt.
Sprocket_ @ #1351 Monday, October 22nd, 2018 – 8:42 pm
Sprocket,
I recommend you read the story about Putin. It seems there’s a lot of intoxicating Powerade about being drunk right now.
Henry:
I think the only reason the Invictus Games is getting so much attention is because of Harry and Meghan.
Oakeshott Country
😆 . That said NSW Labor was (?) a fetid part of the political landscape.
Exactly, GG. Who gives a flying fig about Mark Arbib now!?!
It’s easy to suspect that you’ve gone through the looking glass with the white rabbit when you hear what some of the moron listeners of the Price/Bolt show come out with. One opined tonight that the ALP and the Libs have swapped roles. Labour is now for the rich and the the Liberals are for the poor. He probably believes that Trump is a communist too.
Darn @ #1367 Monday, October 22nd, 2018 – 8:59 pm
And that the Nazis were socialists, no doubt 🙁
Sprocket_
Or filled with holy fire. The US,Guatemala and Australia have an Evangelical connection re that decision.
This 4 corners about the encroaching influence of the gun lobby is really much ado about nothing.
We’re not America and there’s no chance we will go down that path of guns for all.
C@tmomma @ #1366 Monday, October 22nd, 2018 – 8:59 pm
Apart from Kevin, you mean?
The SmearStralian lashing out looking for scapegoats..
“It is understood a message was being worked on between the Prime Minister and Mr Turnbull before polling day, but Mr Turnbull wanted to mention the way he was rolled and the pair could not agree on a form of words.
Mr Turnbull had also told the government that a message from him could be a “distraction” and not helpful to Mr Sharma.
There was talk last night that some Liberal branches may move at the next State Council meeting of the party to call for Mr Turnbull’s expulsion from the Liberal Party for his failure to help Mr Sharma.
The Australian revealed yesterday that NSW Liberal director Chris Stone is under the gun after the large swings against the party and losses in the state seat of Wagga Wagga last month and now Wentworth.
Liberal figures are expected to encourage Mr Sharma, 43, to pursue another seat. One NSW Liberal said his performance and fundraising ability had made him one of the “best candidates we’ve ever had”.
Arbib and his other mate, whose name escapes me right now (Bitar ?) it must be said, were bottom feeders of the highest order. Ergo, they were scum and a black mark on labor’s history. Low rent po boys. I think their working for Packer now, which says it all.
Sprocket_ @ #1371 Monday, October 22nd, 2018 – 9:03 pm
Except for Malcolm Turnbull!
This is shaping up as a split and people need to know which side they are on!
Who knows. a Liberal rump might keep Labor in power for the next twenty years.
It will be very interesting to hear more from Robert Ball on the internecine struggles in The Liberal Party. Will the RW and their antagonists have their showdown? Will Morrison be called on to pay for the defeat in Wentworth? Will Murdoch hold off for now?
It is obvious that unity still eludes the Liberals. They will get nowhere until they can overcome their policy paralysis and find a leader who will unite them.
They are on life-support now, politically speaking…..
Henry
says:
Monday, October 22, 2018 at 9:07 pm
Arbib and his other mate, whose name escapes me right now (Bitar ?) it must be said, were bottom feeders of the highest order. Ergo, they were scum and a black mark on labor’s history. Low rent po boys. I think their working for Packer now, which says it all.
__________________________
Henry, couldn’t have said it better myself. But there’s one name you’re leaving off that list as Laurie Oakes recounts:
Gillard had been at a meeting with the plotters — Right-wing faction bosses Mark Arbib from NSW, Bill Shorten and David Feeney from Victoria, and Don Farrell from South Australia. They told her the numbers were there if she wanted the leadership.
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/ipad/laurie-oakes-rudd-blind-to-his-execution/news-story/7e526f227068310ddd42943ca7cca22b
I didn’t watch the Rudd interview, but presumably it suits 7.30’s agenda to have Rudd bagging Labor, the Monday after the Wentworth defeat.
Adrian
I didn’t watch the Rudd interview, but presumably it suits 7.30’s agenda to have Rudd bagging Labor, the Monday after the Wentworth defeat.
_______________________________________
I did. I thought he looked whiny and pathetic. I though that Leigh Sales asked good questions. There was no follow up, but there did not need to be.
I love Ellinghausen’s photos. Here he captures Gillard looking forward to the future, not looking back at the past. Rudd could learn a thing or two from her.
And survivor Frank actually kissing her feet.
Henry
Monday, October 22, 2018 at 9:07 pm
There were lots more. And people wonder why NSW Labor’s reputation became :barf emoticon: A well earned reputation that must linger in the minds of many voters.
ScoMo, of course, was sacked from Tourism NZ for “not being a team player”.
For mine, he lost me the first time I saw that patronizing sneer he puts on when journos ask him a question.
“Before Fran Kelly became an ABC journalist, she was a singer in a band.”
C@t – I didn’t realise that Fran ever became a journalist. When did that absurdity happen?
Nath, I just don’t see how you can think what you’re saying is helping. Nor can I see how it is a ‘good faith’ effort at subjecting thoughts to constructive feedback. So, I can’t see a benign purpose behind what you type. Can you please show me where I am wrong?
Might be interesting to watch QT tomorrow to see if a few backbenchers drop by Julie Bishop’s seat for a photo op.
She will no doubt be positioning herself for a big Melboune Cup carnival. Lots of pics with all the right people in all the right places.
As bizzare as it seems, Morrison’s ineptness has me thinking she could still make a run, backed by those keen to save some of the furniture. (where have I heard that before?)
But maybe a weekend in Alice Springs has addled my brain.
Interesting story speculating about 8 Lib held seats with demographics similar to Wentworth, high income, progressive (high green vote, high support marriage equality), educated.
Warringah, NSW, 11.6% margin,
North Sydney, NSW, 13.6%
Kooyong, Vic, 13.3%
Higgins, Vic, 8%
Goldstein, Vic, 13.7%
Brisbane, QLD, 5.9%
Ryan, QLD, 9.1%
Curtain, WA, 20.7%
https://www.afr.com/news/liberal-moderates-on-guard-as-up-to-10-seats-vulnerable-to-progressive-backlash-20181021-h16xj8
Kooyong, Vic, 13.3%
Higgins, Vic, 8%
Goldstein, Vic, 13.7%
_______________
MT would definitely have been better liked in these seats than Morrison, but there is no chance the libs will lose any of them.
Michael A
says:
Monday, October 22, 2018 at 9:20 pm
Nath, I just don’t see how you can think what you’re saying is helping. Nor can I see how it is a ‘good faith’ effort at subjecting thoughts to constructive feedback. So, I can’t see a benign purpose behind what you type. Can you please show me where I am wrong?
___________________________
I’m not responding to you after this post. The last time you asked me a reasonable question I gave you an honest and pretty detailed response and then you ran around like a headless chook screaming that I was a conservative who wanted to attack the ‘undeserving poor’. I don’t block people because I consider that stupid. So consider yourself ‘skipped over’ from now on.
The seats that would be most vulnerable to Independents would be those held on large margins by Flag-bearers for the RW and prominent Cabinet ministers. By splitting the Lib PV, Independents can dislodge Crazy Members.
Jackson Gothe-Snape
Verified account
@jacksongs
7h7 hours ago
Timeline, per estimates today:
-30 Aug: ABC au pair story triggers Pezzullo AFP referral
-9 Oct: Asst Commissioner Neil Gaughan sends Whatsapp msg to Dutton’s chief of staff informing of au pair warrant
-11 Oct: AFP raids Home Affairs dept
-12 Oct: Dutton denies knowledge of raid
Not long to go until Q&A. Looks like a pretty reasonable panel tonight too.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #1383 Monday, October 22nd, 2018 – 9:20 pm
😆
Without Daylight Saving, I think the Curtain electorate in WA is safe for the Liberals. 😉
I would also suggest that Mackellar falls into a similar demographic as those mentioned in the AFR. Higher income, higher greens vote, high yes to SSM vote etc. Just lacks the bourgeoisie bohemians.
My god, look at Anne Summers. Looks like something out of a horror movie. I wont be tuning in, will give me nightmares.
I can’t access the article (paywalled), but would love to know where Forrest sits on that list. I can’t see Curtin being anything other than Liberal, esp while JBishop is the sitting member. But Forrest has a diverse mix of people: your stereotypical greenie/hippie, sea/tree changers, rich toffs, surfer counter-culture types, as well as conservative rural folk, FIFO, and semi retirees who still work in Perth part time/consultancy.
CConfessions
Here ya go.
https://outline.com/hEnRdB
Ruddock has been in parliament longer than I’ve been alive.
#timetostepaside
Every RW Lib in a safe seat is vulnerable to a well-credentialed Independent campaign focused on climate change.
The Liberals are locked into coal. They have committed themselves to something their constituencies are overwhelmingly opposed to. They can be defeated.
Labor will win easily in the marginals. Independents can win the safe seats. The country will vote for change. They are aching for it.
Ta poroti!