Not the Wentworth by-election thread

Some preselection news, and a thread for discussion of political matters not directly related to the Wentworth by-election count.

For discussion focused on the count for the Wentworth by-election, which turns out not to have been as over as you thought it was last night, the live results thread is still in action. For general political discussion, I offer the following post, with my usual semi-regular updates of preselection news.

• Phillip Coorey of the Australian Financial Review reports a New South Wales Liberal Senate preselection next month is a three-way contest between Jim Molan, Andrew Bragg and Hollie Hughes. Molan found a place in the Senate last December by the grace of Section 44, after securing only the unwinnable seventh position on the Coalition ticket at the 2016 double dissolution, to the chagrin of conservatives including Tony Abbott. Then followed the disqualification of Nationals Senator Fiona Nash, followed by the determination that the sixth candidate on the ticket, the aforesaid Hollie Hughes, was likewise ineligible due to a position she had taken on the Administrative Affairs Tribunal. Now it appears Molan is primed to take top spot, and since the third position is reserved for the Nationals, this leaves two and four to be fought out between Bragg, whose decision to withdraw himself from consideration for preselection in Wentworth is now looking pretty good, and Hughes, whose Section 44 complication is behind her.

• The Port Macquarie News reports three candidates have nominated to succeed retiring Luke Hartsuyker as Nationals candidate for Cowper: Patrick Conaghan, a former police officer and North Sydney councillor who now works locally as a solicitor; Chris Genders, a newsagent; and Jamie Harrison, former Port Macquarie-Hastings councillor and owner of an electrical business.

• The Burnie Advocate reports Gavin Pearce, who has been described as a “farmer and ex-defence force member”, has been preselected as Liberal candidate for Braddon ahead of “Devonport business identity Stacey Sheehan and property developer Kent Townsend”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,550 comments on “Not the Wentworth by-election thread”

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  1. poroti
    I saw that last week Turkey actually released the audio of Khashoggi being killed. I haven’t heard it but Turkey is really going in hard on this and leaking like a sieve. I can’t imagine the US helping this much bad stuff come out. They’d be trying to cover it up as much as possible.

  2. Upnorth says:
    Monday, October 22, 2018 at 10:25 pm
    Federal Independent MP Cathy McGowan has said that she may no longer continue to support Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s minority government in the event that Michael McCormack is ousted as leader of the National Party.

    Joyce would be political cyanide among women in NP seats….there are only votes to be gained by stoning Joyce, the serial philanderer, sex pest, deserter and predator…

  3. I think the theory with those electorates, is that they, are socially progressive and economic conservative, so they wont fall to Labor (because they are economic conservatives and Labor isnt), but they might not be keen Liberal voters either (because they are socially progressive and the LNP isnt).
    If there is a high profile independent who can mix’and’match policies from either party, like in Wentworth, the Libs might struggle.

  4. Phelps is spot on re the so-called slur against people with HIV.

    What were presumably Liberals (and I assume it was Liberals) thinking in running with that attack ad?

  5. bug1
    If there is a high profile independent who can mix’and’match policies from either party, like in Wentworth, the Libs might struggle.
    _________________________
    sure, but I don’t believe the members in those electorates are disliked. It takes a retiring sitting member to get an IND in those electorates.

  6. PvO was easily the most astute panelist on QandA tonight, followed closely by Anne Summers. Kerryn Phelps was quite reasonable and considered as well.

    Albo, being the Labor rep on the panel, was the target of Tony Jones hectoring as usual.

    Ruddock looks like he doesn’t even care what happens to the Morrison Coalition Government.

  7. US rejects 148 Nauru refugees
    Mandy Newton Australian Border Force
    Greg Brown, Rachel Baxendale

    PoliticsNow: Border Force officials have confirmed the United States has rejected 148 refugees from Nauru.

  9. Excellent: last question relates to the unacceptable prevalence of domestic violence against women in this country. The toxic macho culture that fosters this needs all the exposure it can get.

  12. John R says:
    Monday, October 22, 2018 at 10:39 pm
    I can’t see another Liberal leadership change, they will stick with Morrison,for better or worse.
    —————————————

    The Coalition would get slaughtered if they dumped a third PM in two terms. The carnage would be even greater if the replacement was Abbott or Dutton.

  13. Some insights from people who’ve been doing state election campaigning for Labor in Deakin – the local state members are held in reasonable regard, but Michael Sukkar is widely despised. Presumably his role in the leadership change hasn’t gone down well with the locals.

    Menzies is another one I’d watch if there’s a big swing on; the redistribution has taken a couple of points off the margin (now 7.9%), and taken the seat into new territory north of the Yarra.

  14. @ Briefly

    Agree – A return of The Beetrooter would be toxic for Nat MP’s and further make the point that the Coalition are out of touch with female voters. But hey – the Libs nearly backed The Potato.

  15. Michael A @ #1453 Monday, October 22nd, 2018 – 7:38 pm

    PvO was easily the most astute panelist on QandA tonight, followed closely by Anne Summers. Kerryn Phelps was quite reasonable and considered as well.

    Albo, being the Labor rep on the panel, was the target of Tony Jones hectoring as usual.

    Ruddock looks like he doesn’t even care what happens to the Morrison Coalition Government.

    I did love Albo’s line that the principle of merit clearly isn’t in force in the Liberals given some of the men in the partyroom.

  16. zoom…thanks….much the same here in WA….there are a few seats where a strong Indy could cause a lot of grief for the Libs…but there’s not many willing contenders…

  19. Confessions says:
    Monday, October 22, 2018 at 10:45 pm
    I did love Albo’s line that the principle of merit clearly isn’t in force in the Liberals given some of the men in the partyroom.
    —————————————

    Yes! I joined the audience in having a good guffaw at that one.

    Exhibit A: the vote on “It’s OK to be white”, take 1.

  20. #Newspoll QLD Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 46 (-4) ALP 54 (+4) #auspol

    #Newspoll WA Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 46 (-4) ALP 54 (+4) #auspol

    #Newspoll SA Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 42 (-9) ALP 58 (+9) #auspol

    Thanks to GHV.

  21. Filthy Tories we gotta stop them NOW

    CHARITY legend Father Chris Riley has had his funding slashed by the federal government and has been ordered to repay $630,000, putting the education of homeless and disadvantaged children at risk.

    The founder of charity Youth Off The Streets said he was distressed after the Federal Education Department told him a new formula would see his funding halved from $17,000 per student to $8000 — equivalent to a cut of $1.3 million a year.

    In an email sent to him on September 27, Father Chris was asked to repay $630,000 in funds his organisation has already received throughout the year that already been spent on educating and housing vulnerable teenagers.

    He was told this funding will be deducted from future payments to the charity.

  23. I liked the bit when Tony said Ruddock could crap on a bit more because he was previously cut off.

    Credit has to go to Ruddock. None of the current crop had the guts to show up. I think he’s a masochist.

  26. Question says:
    Monday, October 22, 2018 at 10:51 pm
    I liked the bit when Tony said Ruddock could crap on a bit more because he was previously cut off.
    —————————————

    Oh, how jolly decent of that chap Tony. Sound fellow, that. Eh, what?

  31. Bye bye Pyne-O

    #Newspoll SA Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 42 (-9) ALP 58 (+9) #auspol

    #Newspoll QLD Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 46 (-4) ALP 54 (+4) #auspol

    And Georgie Porgy in Dawson!

  32. and Pyne will have to be pork barrelled with more billions than last time.

    We fantasise about this every election, and yest still Pyne hangs on. He’s the ultimate cockroach.

  34. These state NewsPolls are dreadfull for Scotty.

    Has the experiment of a Pentacostalist advertising motormouth failed?

    Put your baseball caps and Australia pins out.

  39. Sprocket
    Pyne supported Turnbull and then got Morrison in ahead of Dutton. Flint was one of the Dutton plotters. Boothby isn’t a Dutton friendly electorate. Pyne has huge resources behind him which he will happily deny to Flint.

  41. Fisrt we have Bishop with her stare now we have Morrison getting a reputation for the hug of death. First Turnbull….now Sharma.
    If I were a Lib/Nat member and the PM tries to give you am arm across the shoulder hug you would be better off giving him the Black Knight treatment from Monty Python.

  44. Having just been redistributed from Hindmarsh into Boothby, those figures are heartening to say the least. Hopefully having to sandbag in other previously “safe” electorates will ensure that not all of the Lib $$ are directed here.

  46. “Shorten has questions to answer.”

    The Libs will be hoping that Albo has a Speech ready to go on the back of Rudds book release. 🙂

  47. That national aggregate looks dodgy to me. The three month average is 55-45 but there hasn’t been a Newspoll worse than 55-45 and some have been closer. Tassie and NT can’t be distorting the national result by that much.

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