The second Newspoll of the Scott Morrison era is no better for the Coalition than the first, with Labor maintaining its 56-44 lead. As reported in The Australian, both major parties are up a point on the primary vote, Labor to 42% and the Coalition to 34%. The minor party primary votes are still to come (UPDATE: Greens steady on 10%, One Nation down one to 6%). Newspoll skipped the personal ratings questions a fortnight ago, so its results this week are the first ever for Morrison, and the first in four weeks for Bill Shorten. Morrison is on 41% approval and 39% disapproval, while Shorten is up five on approval to 37% and down five on disapproval to 51%. However, Shorten has not replicated the 39-33 lead he recorded on preferred prime minister in the immediate wake of the leadership change, and now trails 42-36. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1653.
So Bill Shorten’s net satisfaction jumps dramatically and he drops back on PPM. Pretty solid proof, I would say, that with PPM the PM gets a big boost from just having the job. Voters are saying they don’t want Sco Mo axed just yet. They want to do it at the next election.
Roger Miller
Agree 100%. He was still the most popular person in the Liberal party.
sprocket_
The funny thing about the “Muppet Show” analogy is that it was made by Morrison himself.
Even funnier than when other powerful Liberals dubbed two of their recent leaders “The Lying Rodent” and “Mr. Harbourside Mansion”.
It would be a delight to see 56-44 to Labor in an actual election. Basically a reverse of 1975.
Where are they getting this “more popular than Turnbull” thing from anyway? That looks like a much slimmer PPM lead than any of Turnbull’s.
Also, it says something about how dire things have got for the Coalition if their supporters are going to start seizing on a mere six point PPM lead – when TPP shows a catastrophic wipe-out – as a sign that things are going well.
I seem to remember Kristina Kenneally polling ahead of Barry O’Farrell as preferred premier soon after she became leader too.
30% swing against Libs in Wagga and now federal 44-56. Worse weekend in 10 years for them.
Will the Libs appeal to JBishop if the polls continue to stink for them? Would she step up?
Time for Scummo to sharpen his message. He’s got to tell voters that, at the next election, it will be a choice between him and The Rapture. There is no middle ground.
Rudd and Gillard were winning PPM ratings when they were trailing, even badly, in 2PP. For whatever reason, the PPM measure apparently has a strong incumbency bias. Maybe many / most of the politically disengaged just give a tick to whoever is the current PM.
More popular than Turnbull? Are they comparing Morrison to results for Turnbull from prior polls, or have they included Turnbull, who is not even in the picture and has vanished from the public stage, in this current poll?
https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/09/09/newspoll-56-44-labor-2/comment-page-2/#comment-2900595
The jump in the new PM`s rating probably largely consist of Turnbull preferring rusted on Liberal voters ceasing to refuse to back the new leader in the opinion polls and the just having the job boost you mention.
Over the period of the latest dysfunction, as noted by some on here, Shorten has retained a low public profile apart from campaigning in seats across the Nation and under the media radar
Just the occasional appearance because what could he add to the dysfunction – so you don’t want to discredit the dysfunction by egging it for partisan political purpose – and giving the dysfunctional government a target because of the egging
Just a photograph of a united Labor Party standing ready to serve – a Party which has its policies enunciated and in the public forum in regard substantial of the issues
The focus has been exclusively on Borrison
The tactics in the Parliament this week will be of interest
But, again, they will be determined by the dysfunctional government and the actions of their MP’s in both Houses
So questions of those on the Treasury benches who have alleged untenable behaviour by certain of their MP’s (and where the denials have gone quite so they will hope they have stitched up deals so they are not outed in the Parliament and it will all blow over behind Borrison’s defence)
Questions of back benchers in QT?
Plus there is the letter with 43 names on it
Should be fun
Then Cash
And Dutton
Meanwhile the ASX and the AUD will continue to weaken
I somehow would not be thinking that Lowe would be looking at currency devaluation inflation as being a positive into the raft of other abysmal economic data – including lifting interest rates because of such inflation figures, interest rates being a factor of cost of funds plus inflation (plus bank margins over and above BBSW’s)
If it was not so serious it would be fun and games
But this IS serious
I’m calling it. If the Coalition maintain control of the house, they won’t be going to the polls until November 2019. May ’19 will just be a half-Senate election.
As I reckon there’s a decent chance Scott won’t be the one leading the Coalition to that November election.
Steve777
You are right. PPM has a strong incumbency bias by virtue of being PM you are in the media a lot compared to the opposition leader.
I see SportsBet now has a market on every one of the seats in the forthcoming federal election –
https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/politics/australian-federal-politics
On the result
ALP $1.30
LNP $3.20
May 2019 odds on for election month at $1.85
Sprocket:
With those odds, I am very tempted to throw some bets on the latter months of 2019.
Fess
I think J Bishop would give them a very short lift in the polls before everyone realised what a woeful leader she was, and would ultimately see them lose ground. I don’t think there is anything they can do to improve their possition. Every move would take them backwards.
Asha
I’m with you on the half-senate idea. Just looking at the late 2019 HoR election odds on SportsBet, might have a dabble
October 2019 $91
November 2019 $101
I’m not sure that this narrows, what could Morriscum possibly do to help himself when all his instincts are so fundamentally (pun intended) out of touch with Australians. It could get worse.
If Sharkie and McGowan continue to have confidence in the Govt they both deserve to lose their seats.
The preferred Prime Minister is the leader of the party ahead on 2pp.
When your party is ahead 56/44 you are so preferred Prime Minister you can start having a quiet think about how to win the election AFTER the next one.
“Maybe many / most of the politically disengaged just give a tick to whoever is the current PM.”
I think the problem with PPM is it’s comparing apples with oranges – you’re being asked to compare the person who’s actually PM with someone you’ve not yet been able to judge in the role. Naturally the incumbent comes across as more prime ministerial. Doesn’t mean you want to vote for his party.
Roger M:
If they keep tanking in the polls the temptation to go to JBishop for that pre-election sugar hit would have to burn.
I can’t see how labor stays 1.30 for much longer
Not a betting man but that seems very very generous
This probably explains why there was a fair bit of Labor pre-selection jockying for the seats of Canberra and Bean (Fenner was uncontested I think). From Sportsbet:
Bean (ACT)
Labor 1.02 Coalition 11.00 Green 34.00
Canberra (ACT)
Labor 1.04 Coalition 10.00 Green 36.00
Fenner (NSW)
Labor 1.01 Coalition 16.00 Green 34.00
Would JBishop step up?
Had a catch-up with some people today including one media guy who has his finger on the pulse in Perth’s western suburbs.
He was sure we have not seen the last of JBishop, though his feeling was a return would not be until after an election and she would be happy to be LOTO.
He also said his mail was that the morning after she deeply regretted the decision to resign as foreign minister.
Roger Miller:
Changing leaders again would be an absolute disaster. NSW 2011 territory.
But they already seem to be facing a disaster. And governments on the verge of losing office in enormous wipe-outs do crazy, desperate things.
Whatever happens, it’s likely to be a fun time to be a left-leaning partisan.
“I don’t think there is anything they can do to improve their possition. Every move would take them backwards.”
I agree. Scott Morrison will take the Government to the next election barring force majeure or a major scandal.
They would have to go right away, but even a short campaign would be too long to maintain the hit.
There is nothing I would like more than to see PMJB lose the election.
It wont stop deluded Dutton or Abbott having another go at a Libspill especially when all those backbenchers will be out of a job.
She holds several cards at present. 1) she’s popular with voters and is recognised by voters, 2) she’s a woman in a party which is widely known for its toxicity with women reps, and 3) for whatever reason she is seen by voters as having credibility.
I reckon she’s holding her fire to see where the chips fall.
Player One @ #29 Sunday, September 9th, 2018 – 9:48 pm
The one of us implying that immigration can only be used to shore up a deficit between births and deaths and not acknowledging that we can support greater immigration levels by curtailing the birth rate, for both?
Steve
Yes, the RWNJs still think the answer to all their problems is to move to the right.
Confessions @ #79 Sunday, September 9th, 2018 – 10:23 pm
One more 56/44, and it’s game on?
This has aged well.
From 23rd June 2018.
Mr Shields is Federal Editor and Canberra Bureau Chief for the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.
Bevan Shields
@BevanShields
Question for the experts. Polling-wise, is this the worst start any new PM has had? I mean, since polling started being done semi-regularly. I can’t recall anyone else in recent history who didn’t get some sort of bounce upon taking office.
Roger Miller @ #78 Sunday, September 9th, 2018 – 8:20 pm
I’d rather see PM Tony Abbott get annihilated in an election.
Asha
I think 56/44 IS the bounce. Dutton would be way below that.
I thought 56-44 was only a one off and immediately the Libs vote would improve a point or 2 after a settling period of a fortnight. Im really glad that 56-44 could become the norm.
Its a massive change from 51-49.
a r:
I’m thinking more a hospital pass to JBishop at the very last moment, likely once they’ve burned through Morrison and possibly Dutton.
Asha Leu @ #85 Sunday, September 9th, 2018 – 8:25 pm
You’re assuming that 56/44 *isn’t* the bounce and the reality isn’t going to settle as much worse.
The L/NP generally got much worse published polling results when parliament was sitting…
a r @ #81 Sunday, September 9th, 2018 – 10:23 pm
So, you want us to reduce our natural birth rate so we can increase our immigration rate?
How, exactly? And – more importantly – why?
There hasn’t been a separate half-Senate election since 1970. You would have to be nearly 70 to have voted in it. So for the bulk of the population, it would be unprecedented, and could only be interpreted as a weak, terrified government putting off the day of reckoning in the House to rake in a few more bucks in salary. And they’d probably find themselves looking at an uglier, more hostile Senate from 1 July 2019, which could blight their run up to the House election in any number of ways. It’s possible, but I doubt that it’s likely.
Dan
I’m in Curtin.
Better PM does have an incumbency bias. Normally for a 50-50 2PP the incumbent will lead by about 16 points which drops by about five points for every point of 2PP the government is behind by.
A 6-point lead for 44-56 is actually a record; no PM has ever had this lead while this far behind. However in Nov 2011 Gillard had a 5-point lead while 43-57 behind.
If they even consider a half-Senate for May and then get everyone to do it again for the House in November… they’re going to be slaughtered.
Confessions @ 10.30 pm
In those circumstances it’s hard to imagine Ms Bishop accepting the poisoned chalice.
Roger Miller @ #93 Sunday, September 9th, 2018 – 8:32 pm
Ah. That makes sense.
j341983 @ #95 Sunday, September 9th, 2018 – 8:32 pm
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This!
Good Evening
Look at that 34% primary vote. We know that means preferences. With the election results we have been getting we know that could be leaning to the LNP. The individual seat polls have been way out.
It’s going to be interesting to see if Essential has the same.
No wonder Labor is leading with such a primary vote fall. The right split is real. No wonder the LNP is tearing itself apart. Labor did the same when its left leaning voters left for the Democrats and Greens.
That primary vote really is a “WOW”
Have the electorate dont know the first thing about Morrison, couldnt pick him out of a lineup.
I expect approval vs disapproval i think will fluctuate for a few months as people workout who he is.