Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

Essential finds Malcolm Turnbull increasing his lead as preferred Liberal leader, Anthony Albanese drawing level with Bill Shorten for Labor, and little change in voting intention.

The latest fortnightly result from Essential Research has Labor maintaining its 51-49 lead, with the Coalition up one on the primary vote to 41%, Labor steady on 36%, the Greens steady on 10% and One Nation steady on 6%. Also featured are questions on best Liberal and Labor leader: the former finds Malcolm Turnbull on 28%, up four since April, with Julie Bishop down one to 16% and Tony Abbott down one to 10%; the latter has Bill Shorten and Anthony Albanese tied on 19%, which is one point down since August 2017 in Shorten’s case and six points up in Albanese’s, while Tanya Plibersek is down one to 12%.

The poll also has Essential’s occasional question on attributes of the main parties, which are chiefly interesting in having the Liberals up eight points since November 2017 for having “a good team of leaders”, to 45%, and down eight on the obverse question of being “divided”, to 56%. The biggest movements for Labor are a seven point decrease for being “extreme”, to 34%; a five point decrease for being too close to corporate interests, to 37%; and a five point increase for being divided, to 56%.

The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1022; full results can be found here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,484 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

  1. ‘allegations from many different people with no incentive to fabricate…’

    Nicholas showed how this worked the other day: if the staffers were apolitical, they had no incentive to fabricate. If they were political, they had no incentive to fabricate. So under no circumstances conceivable did anyone have any incentive to fabricate.

    All it demonstrated was how Nicholas was willing to bend over backwards to prejudge Husar.

    And it’s news to me that there were allegations ‘from many different people’. I had the impression that there were (at very most) a couple, who were making allegations about how others were treated. Certainly the incident reported in the letter was from one source, and my impression was it was the same source which made the original complaint.

  2. Oh dear apparently skynews is like gone nazi:

    Mark Di Stefano

    ‏Verified account @MarkDiStef
    11m11 minutes ago

    Mark Di Stefano

    Retweeted

    This is just disgusting and everyone at Sky News knows it’s a disgrace. They’re putting a Nazi-sympathising idiot on mainstream Australian TV. How much longer are we going to do this? No seriously. How much longer? https://twitter.com/skynewsaust/status/1026022117312086017

  3. Any chance we could get Greg Jericho into Parliament, preferably in a safe seat? I also wouldn’t mind Bernard Keane being a cross bench Senator.

  4. I doubt anyone here objected to the revelations about Cash’s office leaking the details of the AFP raid, or the contents of the Steele dossier.

    Both those issues are in the public interest. Salacious gossip like Husar flashed herself at a colleague (and both parties are denying this) not so much.

  5. Mr Denmore quoted by Zoidlord: “An anonymous claim about an obscure opposition MP not wearing undies is judged more newsworthy than cabinet ministers tipping $440m of our money unaudited into a trust run by their mates to put a fig leaf over the climate denialism destroying our biggest natural wonder.”

    A neat summary. Just one thing, it wasn’t just “Cabinet Ministers”, it was the Prime Minister was there.

  6. “… people are going to draw the reasonable inference that the sheer volume of allegations from many different people with no incentive to fabricate is damning, regardless of whether a barrister has completed a report about the allegations or not.”

    Geez Nicholas, I’d hate to have to rely on you for any kind of a fair hearing.

    You’re a right little fascist prick, aren’t you?

    Mob rule, justice by gossip, lynch mobs… all grist for Nicky’s mill.

    Put ’em up against the wall and shoot ’em. I mean, they wouldn’t be standing there wearing blindfolds if they weren’t guilty of something, would they? Saves the expense of a trial.

  7. Zoidlord @ #2407 Sunday, August 5th, 2018 – 6:39 pm

    Oh dear apparently skynews is like gone nazi:

    Mark Di Stefano

    ‏Verified account @MarkDiStef
    11m11 minutes ago

    Mark Di Stefano

    Retweeted

    This is just disgusting and everyone at Sky News knows it’s a disgrace. They’re putting a Nazi-sympathising idiot on mainstream Australian TV. How much longer are we going to do this? No seriously. How much longer? https://twitter.com/skynewsaust/status/1026022117312086017

    Far from wanting to take up cudgels of fire off a series of outraged social media posts, what that clip overwhelmingly made me do was literally laugh out loud!

    Too funny!!

  8. Our great LNP will win the next election by a landslide and Malcolm Turnbull is the only one who understands our farmers needs and shorten will lead a union run government so god help us if he gets in

  9. Victims of workplace bullying have a lot to lose by coming forward. The staff in Husar’s office – you know, that office with a staff turnover far higher than any other backbench MP’s office – don’t gain politically or professional by coming forward. Certain Labor tribalists are being naive when they suggest that the many complainants in this matter had a strong incentive to lie.

    They are naive when they think that voters and colleagues aren’t entitled to decide whether to support someone politically based on a large number of allegations from the many people who saw them up close.

    This isn’t a criminal trial. It’s a question of whether this person with terrible people management skills should be representing a marginal seat. The answer to that question is obviously “No”.

  10. Cottrell: ‘Our traditional identity as Australians’.

    Um, wouldn’t that be as Indigenous Australians? I’m surprised Adam Giles, Indigenous man, didn’t pick him up on that! 🙂

  11. “… shorten will lead a union run government so god help us if he gets in”

    Wayne, I thought you had defected from the Dark Side. In any case, why would I prefer a Government run the friends and agents of miners, fossil fuel interests, developers, banks and other assorted crooks and spivs to one run by the friends of unions?

  12. Confessions @ #2419 Sunday, August 5th, 2018 – 9:03 pm

    C@tmomma @ #2421 Sunday, August 5th, 2018 – 7:02 pm

    Cottrell: ‘Our traditional identity as Australians’.

    Um, wouldn’t that be as Indigenous Australians? I’m surprised Adam Giles, Indigenous man, didn’t pick him up on that! 🙂

    Was that Adam Giles interviewing him? Oh god that clip just got even funnier!!

    Yeah. Blair Cottrell has probably had a few choice words to say about Indigenous Australians and all!

  13. Wayne,
    If it wasn’t for Unions, you wouldn’t be able to afford your computer and internet connection to come on here and spout your drivel. You’d probably be working one of your 3 jobs just to survive and put food in your mouth, as in America where that sort of thing is commonplace for the simple folk, such as yourself.

  14. Propeller Cap:

    “Victims of workplace bullying have a lot to lose by coming forward. The staff in Husar’s office – you know, that office with a staff turnover far higher than any other backbench MP’s office – don’t gain politically or professional by coming forward. Certain Labor tribalists are being naive when they suggest that the many complainants in this matter had a strong incentive to lie.”

    I don’t think anyone here is saying that “the many complainants” have motive to lie. Only one.

    The other complainants have a right to complain to either the Department of Finance or now, due to the internal ALP reforms, as an internal grievance. They chose the later option. I strongly suspect that most, bar one, did so out of a sense of loyalty to the party and also to see Emma’s behaviour remediated & not her career destroyed. One however, was simply using the investigation to destroy Emma for political advantage.

  15. Australians didn’t get the 8 hour day, annual leave, sick leave and safe, healthy work conditions, secure employment (at least in the past) and the strength to be treated fairly out of the generosity of employers’ hearts. They had to fight for them. Sure, a multi-billion dollar company would love to negotiate one on one with individual workers one pay packet away from penury. Well they can stick that. Strength through unity.

  16. C@t:

    When your answer to informative night-time current affairs viewing is Blair Cottrell, you gotta wonder what in blazes the question was!

    And if your answer to host of informative night-time current affairs interviewer is Adam Giles, then you *really* have to wonder what the question was!!

  17. Z
    It’s reported Whelan interviewed twenty ex employees. The SMH says it might be payback for Husars role in Paluzzano being ousted. Whelan has 200,000 words of testimony, 400 pages.

  18. Also Dio is this the same SMH that lied already?

    Tony Burke
    ‏Verified account @Tony_Burke
    6h6 hours ago

    Hi @ErykBagshaw there’s an article online at @smh where the sub-editors have taken my comment about knowing of turnover “some time ago” & claimed my comment was about the investigation. This is false. I knew about the investigation when it was published as I said, & not before.

  19. Zoid
    Sounds like the report is done and will be out this week.
    The weight of opinion looking around is it will be mixed and she won’t quit leaving Labor’s preselection to sort it out.

  20. Confessions @ #2425 Sunday, August 5th, 2018 – 9:27 pm

    C@t:

    When your answer to informative night-time current affairs viewing is Blair Cottrell, you gotta wonder what in blazes the question was!

    And if your answer to host of informative night-time current affairs interviewer is Adam Giles, then you *really* have to wonder what the question was!!

    I don’t think either of them have a clue!

    But the funniest thing is likely that Blair Cottrell probably doesn’t even realise Adam Giles is an Indigenous man. 🙂

  21. How do you stop a drone assassination attempt? I assume they can’t reliably shoot them out of the sky. What if there are a few of them and they miss and kill people in surrounding buildings? Can you shut them down remotely?

  22. So Andrew who is going to get Lindsay?
    Surely not Anderson jnr. I was in Kingswood South branch when the old man lost Penrith to a lame half-wit. Although its 30 years ago I suspect the name Anderson still doesn’t do much for the local branch members

  23. Too right, Andrew-Earlwood! It’s the self-entitled faction of Labor rearing it’s ugly head by using those with a legitimate grievance as their stalking horse.

    This is a big test for Kaila Murnain. For a start, as a woman, she knows that there are men in the party just waiting for her to trip and fall flat on her face, just like in the Liberal and National parties, and they are the ones setting the trip wires because they genuinely believe that men should rule the roost, like the cock sparrows they are.

    Especially so, as I said earlier today to Oakeshott Country’s risible suggestion that Mark Arbib should be allowed to waltz back into parliament, as Labor has a genuine chance of being the government after the next federal election.

    And so it is up to her now to be seen to conduct a fair examination of the Emma Husar matter, though with John Whelan Jr having stuffed that up already it’s going to be hard for her to resolve the matter effectively for all concerned, but she really needs to. Otherwise, the rats we see rising up out of the sewers will infest the party again and undo all the good things too many people have put their heart and soul into doing for the good of the party and the ultimate good of the country over the last few years.

  24. What has business done to get the tuber’s knickers in a knot?

    Dutton blasts business on PC agenda

    8:06PMCHRIS MERRITT
    Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton has denounced the rise of political correctness within the business community. (Oz headline)

  25. Hi the management.

    That’s great. I take umbrage that one woman’s career is likely destroyed through slut shaming because of the hopelessness of another woman to actually do her job and do some basic checking and I’m misogynistic.

    The etymology of the phrase you take umbrage at is interesting as well – it originated from one woman’s commentary about another woman who simiarly doesn’t do her job either.

    Of course, you could have taken a scalpel to the post rather than an axe, but no …

  26. As you are well aware I invented the Mark Arbib story but stranger things have been known to happen e.g. Belinda Neal nearly cooking the books in Robertson

  27. 8:06PMCHRIS MERRITT
    Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton has denounced the rise of TREATING OTHER PEOPLE WITH RESPECT within the business community. (Oz headline)

    How does that headline look now?

  28. The etymology of the phrase you take umbrage at is interesting as well – it originated from one woman’s commentary about another woman who simiarly doesn’t do her job either.

    How fascinating. These days though, it’s a word directed at women by misogynists.

    Of course, you could have taken a scalpel to the post rather than an axe, but no …

    Like I’ve got nothing better to do with my time than tidy up after people saying things that are obviously unacceptable, thereby assuring them that they’re free to keep doing so in future.

  29. I’d eat my hat if Arbib was parachuted into Lindsay. Forget about all the 2010 stuff. He’s an outsider. No chance, I’d say even if he wanted it. It’s possible that the current mayor might be persuaded but she is earmarked to run in the state seat. I think Labor is in world of hurt coming up with a viable candidate. I’ve already mentally taken Lindsay out of my ‘Labor’ column post election.

  30. “These days though, it’s a word directed at women by misogynists.”

    It’s a fair cop gov. You have me bang up for rights there.

    I’ll do better.

  31. Oakeshott Country @ #2440 Sunday, August 5th, 2018 – 10:13 pm

    As you are well aware I invented the Mark Arbib story but stranger things have been known to happen e.g. Belinda Neal nearly cooking the books in Robertson

    Yeah right. ‘Nearly’. I could say the names that you well know that were baked into those books that got taken walkies regularly. However, I respect their privacy. They were simply willing dupes.

    As for the Mark Arbib story, it was only said in jest, eh? You hid that well.

  32. What’s Cathy O’Toole up to these days? -she’d give it a red-hot go.
    Unfortuntely Geoff “the fireman” Collins is already occupied representing Dogshit West in the Northern Territory Assembly

  33. And on Sky News tonight, the CIS guy was talking with Rita Panahi about…Nuclear Power being the solution to rising CO2 emissions.

    *sigh*

  34. C@t
    I don’t think even Centre Unity is that dumb or arrogant. There are few people who are totally unelectable but Arbib is one of them. However it did start some good comments on a slow Sunday

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