The Sunday after Super Saturday

A good night for Bill Shorten as Labor lands a surprisingly emphatic win in Longman, and does enough to get home in Braddon.

While Labor’s by-election performances were nothing special in historical terms, it was undeniably a good night for the party, thanks largely to an unexpectedly clear win in Longman. Five campaign opinion polls had Labor slightly behind in the seat, before the election eve Newspoll found them edging to a 51-49 lead. Labor actually appears headed for a winning margin of around 4%, bolstering a fragile 0.8% margin with a swing of 3.4%. The big surprise was the near double-digit fall in the Liberal National Party primary vote, which leaves them struggling to crack 30%. This is well below the 34% attributed to them by Newspoll, to say nothing of a series of ReachTEL results that had them approaching 40%.

The LNP slump rendered redundant what everyone imagined would be the decisive factor, namely the flow of One Nation preferences. Despite this, One Nation were the other big winner in Longman, adding around 7% to their 9.4% vote from 2016. This indeed flowed a lot more strongly to the LNP than in 2016, reflecting the party’s how-to-vote card recommendation and the fact that they clearly picked up much of the LNP’s lost support. After receiving 56.5% of One Nation preferences in 2016, Labor looks to have scored only a third this time.

The Braddon result was less good for Labor, notwithstanding that they have clearly won, and that this looked in doubt throughout the campaign. The main change from the 2016 result is that independent Craig Garland scored a creditable 11.0% (although it may come down a little in late counting), chipping a few percent away from each of Labor, Liberal and the Greens. Rebekha Sharkie’s win in Mayo was of about the anticipated scale: her present lead over Georgina Downer after preferences is 8.6%, compared with her 5.0% margin in 2016. Sharkie’s primary vote performance was even more robust, up from 34.9% to around 45%. This bespeaks one poor aspect of the by-elections for Labor – after playing dead at two successive elections, its vote in Mayo has fallen all the way to 6.0%.

In the two WA seats, Josh Wilson did notably better in Fremantle than Patrick Gorman did in Perth, although neither was in the least bit troubled. Wilson gained 11.6% to gain a clear majority on the primary vote, with the Greens treading water at 17% and the Liberal Democrats garnering enough stray Liberals to land in the low teens. Despite the 42.3% Liberal vote from 2016 being up for grabs (compared with 36.9% in Fremantle), Labor only made a negligible gain on the primary vote in Perth, with the Greens also only up slightly. The rest spread among a large field of 15 candidates, with independent Paul Collins the strongest performer among claimants to the Liberal vote. Turnout was notably subdued in Perth and Fremantle, and looks likely to settle at around 70%.

If you click on the image below, you will find an accounting of the swings in Braddon and Longman and, in the former case, an projection of the final result. Since the swing on votes counted in Braddon thus far is exactly zero, it concludes Labor’s existing margin of 2.2% will be maintained. Also featured are regional breakdowns for Braddon and Longman, with the former broken into the larger towns (Burnie, Devonport and Ulverstone) and the remainder, and the latter into Bribie Island area and the remainder. This doesn’t turn up anything particularly interesting: especially in Longman, the swings were remarkably uniform. Craig Garland’s vote was a little lower in the larger towns, but there was otherwise little distinction to speak of in Braddon.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

813 comments on “The Sunday after Super Saturday”

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  1. Someone in my family also said Laura looked grumpy. I thought it was because Probyn seemed to be hogging the ‘commentary’ – it was there even early in the count before the trends were starting to lock in; but maybe she knew what writing would be on the wall even then.

  2. Amy Remeikis tweets
    Still no statement from the prime minister on last night’s byelection results. Which says it all, really

  3. The Libs in Mayo were heavily campaigning on the line/lie that “a vote for Sharkie is a vote for Shorten”.

    Given she has increased her margin, the takeaway message can only be that the voters don’t care … or don’t hate Shorten as much as the Libs think they should.

    The other interesting thing is the Liberals (in SA, at least) use data mining in their campaigning. They attributed the state election win to its clever targeting of individual voters – so why didn’t it make a scrap of difference in Mayo?

    The answer is that they had a dud candidate. Running her again won’t help. People already knew her and her views and rejected them. No amount of clever computer programs can change a person’s mind once it’s made up, and people had made up their minds a long time ago that Downer was a nasty little IPA apparatchik

  4. Dan Tehan is making a hell of a mess of an interview with David Speers who has him in knots over the byelection results.

  5. However, only two things are clear from these results – Mr Shorten’s leadership is safe for now, and there will not be a federal election this year.

    The extent to which Malcolm Turnbull himself dragged down the LNP vote in Longman is hard to determine. But given that Mr Turnbull emphasised the byelections were a referendum on his and Mr Shorten’s leaderships, the PM will have to take a large share of responsibility for the poor outcome.

    Deflecting the blame to Big Trev and his medal will not be a satisfactory explanation for the Coalition’s very poor performance in Longman.

    https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2018/07/28/longman-by-election-disaster-coalition/

  6. DisplayName
    The first to put out the Albanese thing was Christopher Maurice Pyne, and it grew from there. Another big difference RGR was always reported as “senior labor insiders”, ok Rudd leaked like a sieve. This time it was just reported.

  7. Some implications, concerning these results:

    -Two things seem likely vis a vis Shorten. In the first place, this confirms that it is unlikely he will be removed by internal challengers before the next election. Secondly, it suggests that a campaign against the ALP based solely on his personal popularity is not exactly workable as a campaign tactic- the 2013 results demonstrate well enough that how little the voters like a potential PM won’t matter if they hate the other guy enough.

    -It also seems deeply unlikely that there will be an early general election-at any rate, the Coalition will have no incentive to do so based on these results, particularly compared to polling.

    -If the Longman results are representative, it seems that ON will secure a Senate seat in Queensland in the next general election. How long before whoever wins it bails on the party, on the other hand…..

    -The WA results suggest that the Greens are at the same level as they were in 2016- they should expect no surge to them, but at the same time their Senate seat should not be in any risk. Otherwise, there’s no real call to make for any of the other minor parties in that state- the Liberal Democrats votes will go away in circumstances with actual Liberal candidates on the ballot, ON did not contest either seat, and the other candidates and minor parties do not seem strong enough to have a likely major impact.

    -Craig Garland did very well in Braddon- it isn’t clear what this will mean for his political career going forward, especially given how long it will be before the next state elections. However, it may have promise for Lambie, as it suggests that there still is a considerable base of support for candidates with her sort of appeal.

    -In terms of the Centre Alliance, the meaning of this vote depends on one major factor. Is the Sharkie vote a sign of support for the party, or for Sharkie as (in practical terms, at least) an independent politician? This is most likely to matter for the Senate, especially should Xenophon not run himself as a candidate again- past indicators suggest that the areas included here are the strongest ones for the Xenophonites, and they will need to poll well here if they wish to win that seat back.

    -Finally, it may be interesting to see the next polls after these elections- I wonder if the nature of these results will result in shift in the polling performances of the parties, and what consequences (particularly for the Coalition) will come as a result.

  8. BK @ #51 Sunday, July 29th, 2018 – 5:27 am

    Seeing that the Liberal Party is hell bent on running Georgina Downer in Mayo again it begs the question of what they will do differently to overcome Sharkie’s respect and popularity and the way the voters see Georgina in the electorate?
    Any ideas?

    They probably realise they’re not going to win it, so they’re looking to save money by recycling materials from this campaign. 🙂

  9. Morning all.

    Insiders should be interesting.

    Insiders ABCVerified account@InsidersABC
    2h2 hours ago
    On another huge #Insiders at 9am, @barriecassidy interviews @cpyne + @tanya_plibersek + @markhumphries talks pictures with @tonightly’s @BridieKConnell, plus something new from Huw Parkinson [@rabbitandcoffee]. On the couch: Niki Savva, @murpharoo + @farrm51. Join us! #auspol

  10. I seriously doubt the Libs will run Downer again. Sharkie had a pretty significant win, increasing her primary vote.

  11. And why is SKY reduced to having to organise a camera to get to Hamilton, of all places? Surely Longman and Braddon are awash not just with cameras but with Liberals with a higher profile than Tehan.

    That Tehan is all that’s on offer says that everyone else is in bed with the doonas over their heads, refusing to come out.

  12. Anthony Chisholm makes a good point about how Queenslanders are not racist

    Since the LNP started cosying up to Hanson we have had two elections in QLD. Primary vote results were: 2017 State 8% swing again the LNP and 2018 Longman 10% swing against the LNP. QLD has sent a clear message to the LNP about deals with Hanson & One Nation.

  13. The Braddon vote for the ALP was better than it appears. Last election the Greens and ALP had the top positions. This time the LNP benefited from being above the ALP. That means the ALP LOST the donkey vote this time compared to getting it last time. The result was very good for the ALP despite the spin the Lib lovers like to put on it.

  14. Thanks, chinda63, for the overview from the ground. I was wondering whether the Liberals would use their much vaunted data mining and micro-targeting in Mayo.

    I think the point to be made here is that, now that people know that it is occurring, they are becoming resistant to it.

    I think the same thing might happen in the US in the Mid Term elections. Aided by the FBI going public with their findings in real time.

  15. frednk
    The Coalition will say whatever they like, of course. The CPG, however, started taking/reporting leadershit seriously starting with articles from the likes of Hartcher, in which they did reference “Labor insiders”.

    Same journalists. Same language. Same tests. Same leadershit. All as for Shorten as was for Gillard. No doubt the same “Labor insiders” who were in the Rudd camp and didn’t like Gillard, who are now in the Albanese camp and don’t like Shorten. I’m not saying Albanese (or previously, Rudd) personally had anything to do with it. I would go with overzealous supporters or people with an axe to grind, whose loyalty is mostly to themselves and not whoever they are supporting (or even the ALP).

  16. Once Malcolm Roberts was gracing the red leather as a Senator, with a platform to espouse his whacky conspiracy theories and climate science denialism.

    Now reduced to skulking around Longman with a card board cut out..

  17. Peter Hartcher on Sky has concluded that never mind Bill Shorten’s the government’s narrative had no appeal to electors in these byelections.

  18. Frank Bongiorno@fbongiornoanu

    It’s not the by-election winners and losers that matter for next election; it’s that the LNP can only get the support of about one in four voters in a marginal Queensland seat. The pundits didn’t see that one coming, and I can already hear the pork-barrel rolling out #auspol

  19. …and, although I hate PHON and all it stands for, its resurgence is totally 100% Malcolm’s fault, so it’s nice to know the karma bus exists.

  20. No doubt Anthony Albanese has a leader’s baton in his knapsack, but like Peter Costello’s in the early 2000’s, it will be staying put for the time being.

  21. I am embarrassed that earlier this morning I called Sky ‘Fox’, but as I watch neither, I’m sure you will all forgive me.

  22. guytaur @ #66 Sunday, July 29th, 2018 – 5:44 am

    Anthony Chisholm makes a good point about how Queenslanders are not racist

    Since the LNP started cosying up to Hanson we have had two elections in QLD. Primary vote results were: 2017 State 8% swing again the LNP and 2018 Longman 10% swing against the LNP. QLD has sent a clear message to the LNP about deals with Hanson & One Nation.

    But where have those voters gone?

    Mainly to Divided Nation, so I don’t see his point.

  23. lizzie: “Laura Tingle looked sulky all evening, I thought.”

    To me Laura looked like 1) she is yet to learn how to talk straight to a camera, or how to behave when you are in the camera range and not talking; and 2) like she might have had a cold.

    Notwithstanding her father’s political views, Laura is no conservative.

  24. The Murdoch tabloids are spinning the end of #KillBill by saying it is now settled that the general election will be early next year between Bill Shorten and Malcolm Turnbull.

    Bill is safe. Malcolm, not so much.

  25. Display name..
    “Labor Insiders” is not “senior labor insiders”. Labor insiders are a dime a dozen; and that is the Liberal parties problem, Labor does have a membership base.

    After years and years of kill bill and now get bill, I think bills popularity is spectacular. Not many oppositions leaders have has to sit through a royal commission. I think it is all getting a bit old.

  26. guytaur

    Mmm. Hence my confusion. I still think it significant that the LNP chose Sky for the results and not the ABC.

  27. BK @ #70 Sunday, July 29th, 2018 – 6:47 am

    Peter Hartcher on Sky has concluded that never mind Bill Shorten’s the government’s narrative had no appeal to electors in these byelections.

    Or maybe voters were annoyed at having to have a by-election because of the dual citizenship saga and decided to punish the govt?

  28. ausdavo: “The Braddon vote for the ALP was better than it appears. Last election the Greens and ALP had the top positions. This time the LNP benefited from being above the ALP. That means the ALP LOST the donkey vote this time compared to getting it last time. The result was very good for the ALP despite the spin the Lib lovers like to put on it.”

    Given some of the polling, the result in Braddon was unexpectedly good for Labor. But their primary vote dropped by 3 per cent to 37.1 per cent and the final 2pp result is going to be close to that of 2016.

    Longman was an undoubted triumph: a 5 per cent swing on primaries and a 4.6 per cent swing on 2pp. I don’t think pointing this distinction out represents any form of spinning.

  29. Anyone else notice that all the ABC presenters photographed for the ABC News 24 Live Stream home page are all, to a man and woman, dressed in Liberal blue?

  30. Here’s an article from the start of the l-o-o-ong by-election campaign re the Liberals use of high tech to boost Georgina Downer:

    “The Liberal Party will use a sophisticated, data-mining campaign software system in its bid to wrest back the once blue-ribbon Adelaide Hills seat of Mayo in an upcoming by-election.”

    https://www.outline.com/TfE9Mc

  31. Comparing “left” and “conservative” is mixing up your axes.

    I would place Laura Tingle as progressive (between conservative and progressive), and slightly right of centre (between left and right).

    Having said that, two dimensions may be better than one dimension, but still only draws a fairly crude picture of a person.

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