Mid-week miscellany

Federal electoral news nuggets, sourced from Western Australia and the Australian Capital Territory.

We are having one of the poll-free weeks that have occasionally bedevilled us since Essential Research moved from weekly to fortnightly, with Newspoll having one of its occasional three-week gaps so its next poll coincides with the resumption of parliament. So here’s some random bits of electoral news:

• A polling nugget I forgot to relate a fortnight ago: according to a report by Nick Butterly of The West Australian, a Labor internal poll recorded a neck-and-neck result in the Perth seat of Stirling, which Michael Keenan holds for the Liberals by a margin of 6.1%. After excluding the 10.8% undecided, the primary votes were Liberal 40.2% (49.5% in 2016), Labor 37.6% (32.2%), Greens 9.0% (11.7%) and One Nation 5.3%. The poll was conducted by Community Engagement from a large sample of 1735.

Gareth Parker in the Sunday Times reports that Matt O’Sullivan, who ran unsuccessfully in the lower house seat of Burt at the 2016 election, has narrowly won preselection for the third position on the Liberals’ Western Australian Senate ticket, behind incumbents Linda Reynolds and Slade Brockman. O’Sullivan emerged with 56 votes to 54 for Trish Botha, co-founder with her husband of an evangelical church in Perth’s northern suburbs. The closeness of the result surprised party observers, especially given Christian conservative numbers man Nick Goiran backed O’Sullivan. As Gareth Parker noted in his weekly column, Botha appears to have attracted support from “non God-botherers” opposed to Goiran’s alliance with Mathias Cormann and Peter Collier, who may not have been aware of the messianic language employed by Botha’s church.

• Katy Gallagher has announced she will seek preselection to recover the Australian Capital Territory Senate seat from which she was disqualified last month over Section 44 complications, after speculation she might instead seek the territory’s newly created third lower house seat. However, it appears she will face opposition from the newly anointed successor to her Senate seat, David Smith, former local director of Professionals Australia.

• As for the lower house situation in the Australian Capital Territory, Andrew Leigh will remain in Fenner and Gai Brodtmann will go from Canberra to the nominally new seat of Bean, leaving a vacancy available in Canberra. Smith appears set to run if he loses the Senate preselection to Gallagher; Sally Whyte of Fairfax reports he will be opposed by Kel Watt, a lobbyist who has lately made a name for himself campaigning against the territory Labor government’s ban on greyhound racing. Other potential starters include John Falzon, chief executive of the St Vincent de Paul Society; Jacob Ingram, a staffer to Chief Minister Andrew Barr; and Jacob White, a staffer to Andrew Leigh.

• Occasional Poll Bludger contributor Adrian Beaumont has launched his own website of local and international election and polling news.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,992 comments on “Mid-week miscellany”

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  1. adrian @ #1799 Sunday, June 17th, 2018 – 7:19 pm

    Lucy Barber on ABC news claiming that the motion to ‘privatise’ the ABC is unlikely to ever become LNP policy.

    On what basis can that claim be made, and why is the ABC putting the best possible spin on this?

    Imagine if this were Labor. #45675 in a series.

    It is not the ABC’s claim, it is the Libs claim, and the ABC is merely reporting it.

  2. So Turnbull and Morrison say that they will not privatise the ABC. So what other policies passed at the Liberal Party meeting will also be not implemented?

  3. adrian

    Yes, if someone vaguely connected with Labor (“a Labor source”) was attributed with a statement along the lines of “the ALP might look at selling the ABC” we’d have front pages, opinion pieces and expert panels discussing the implications. But the Liberal party membership voting to do the same? Nothing to see here, we can trust Scotty M.

  4. The white Sth African farmer queue jumper policy was passed, yet that never gets mentioned. Everyone’s focused on privatising the ABC not the fact that the govt is going to admit however many white Sth Africans to AUstralia while hundreds if not thousands of people are languishing in Nauru and on Manus Isl.

    Why aren’t we talking about that?

  5. Confessions @ #1812 Sunday, June 17th, 2018 – 7:36 pm

    The white Sth African farmer queue jumper policy was passed, yet that never gets mentioned. Everyone’s focused on privatising the ABC not the fact that the govt is going to admit however many white Sth Africans to AUstralia while hundreds if not thousands of people are languishing in Nauru and on Manus Isl.

    Why aren’t we talking about that?

    Can anyone verify that? I thought that proposal didn’t get up.

  6. Confessions

    That would be a debate on what is seen as the LNP ‘s electorate advantage on immigration.

    I think this is wrong but I think thats why.

    I am happy for the ABC to dominate especially in Queensland especially if Labor is not in front with this Newspoll.

    I really do think its toxic to the LNP my twitter timeline (which includes journalists and some Liberal MP’s and is not all people I follow for the same like views) have been talking about it all day,

  7. Yes zoomster, they’d also be playing up the disunity angle, with Shorten and ministers in conflict with the rank and file, involving no doubt left/right factional warfare.

    No such problems for Trumble of course.

  8. China on Saturday said it would impose an additional 25 per cent tariff on 545 US products worth about $US34 billion, including soybeans, electric cars, orange juice, whiskey, lobsters, salmon and cigars. The tariffs would be implemented on July 6, the same data as Mr Trump’s latest round of duties.

    A second wave of tariffs affecting goods such as chemicals and medical equipment would be introduced later in the year. Many of the goods affected are food or agricultural products, with one of the objectives being to hit Trump voters.

  9. bemused @ #1813 Sunday, June 17th, 2018 – 7:38 pm

    Confessions @ #1812 Sunday, June 17th, 2018 – 7:36 pm

    The white Sth African farmer queue jumper policy was passed, yet that never gets mentioned. Everyone’s focused on privatising the ABC not the fact that the govt is going to admit however many white Sth Africans to AUstralia while hundreds if not thousands of people are languishing in Nauru and on Manus Isl.

    Why aren’t we talking about that?

    Can anyone verify that? I thought that proposal didn’t get up.

    As to why we’re not talking about it, could be because it is about refugees aka asylum seekers. Mental dissonance, or something. (Not being sarcastic, just can’t think of the term right now.)

  10. What’s the progress with Murdoch and his illness?

    And do we know why Cash went nuts about her COS appointment being questioned? Have they started yet?

  11. As to why we’re not talking about it, could be because it is about refugees aka asylum seekers. Mental dissonance, or something. (Not being sarcastic, just can’t think of the term right now.)

    Someone posted last night that the motion got up. I haven’t been following the Oz news so am taking them at their word.

    It’s curious there’s been no discussion about it, esp as if legislated would mean our humanitarian visa program gave preference to a particular cultural demographic in a specific country.

  12. BK @ #1808 Sunday, June 17th, 2018 – 7:34 pm

    So Turnbull and Morrison say that they will not privatise the ABC. So what other policies passed at the Liberal Party meeting will also be not implemented?

    They said they had ‘no plans’ to privatise the ABC. They are just weasel words that politicians, generally privatisation mad NeoLiberals, use to put the media off the scent.

    They have ‘no plans’. Until they do.

  13. Rossmcg:

    That article reports that the white Sth African farmer motion was carried. It reads to me as if the amended motion which struck out Sth African minorities in favour of European farmers was the one defeated, but the original motion was still voted up with the original wording.

    In a policy motion put forward to the federal council, where members attempt to influence Coalition policy, they attempted to amend a motion changing “South African minorities targeted by hate crimes” to “European farmers”, to ensure white farmers were given particular attention.

    The motion was carried, but as originally put forward, with South African minorities standing in place of Europeans.

  14. Speaking of illness, I read that Barnaby Joyce is at his brother’s bedside at Royal North Shore Hospital in Sydney. He has terminal cancer and might die any day now. It will be interesting to see whether Barnaby Joyce turns up to parliament, as a result.

    I just hope he doesn’t try to milk it for sympathy points.

  15. C@t

    One of the more famous “no plans to …” came from JBishop in the Griffith by-election campaign in relation to the Medicare co-payment. And we remember what happened next.

    To me “no plans” means we just haven’t written it down yet, and labor may be just as guilty in some instances.

  16. C
    ‘Speaking of illness, I read that Barnaby Joyce is at his brother’s bedside at Royal North Shore Hospital in Sydney. He has terminal cancer and might die any day now. It will be interesting to see whether Barnaby Joyce turns up to parliament, as a result.

    I just hope he doesn’t try to milk it for sympathy points.’

    His brother is dying and this is the best you can do? Fucking hell.

  17. guytaur, I value your politeness on this blog. Today you made a point you may not have intended. Most did not agree with your arguments. The frustration on both sides was apparent. You responded with reason. This place is better for it. Thanks.

  18. Confessions @ #1827 Sunday, June 17th, 2018 – 8:00 pm

    Rossmcg:

    That article reports that the white Sth African farmer motion was carried. It reads to me as if the amended motion which struck out Sth African minorities in favour of European farmers was the one defeated, but the original motion was still voted up with the original wording.

    In a policy motion put forward to the federal council, where members attempt to influence Coalition policy, they attempted to amend a motion changing “South African minorities targeted by hate crimes” to “European farmers”, to ensure white farmers were given particular attention.

    The motion was carried, but as originally put forward, with South African minorities standing in place of Europeans.

    The article states:

    “Liberal party members who attempted to have white South African farmers singled out for special treatment when applying for asylum in Australia have been defeated after an emotional interjection from a former immigration minister.”

  19. Someone just mentioned to me that they have been watching “Succession” on TV, which is supposedly based on Rupe and children. The kids come across as very dopey. Who would have thunk it.

  20. Boerwar @ #1830 Sunday, June 17th, 2018 – 8:06 pm

    C
    ‘Speaking of illness, I read that Barnaby Joyce is at his brother’s bedside at Royal North Shore Hospital in Sydney. He has terminal cancer and might die any day now. It will be interesting to see whether Barnaby Joyce turns up to parliament, as a result.

    I just hope he doesn’t try to milk it for sympathy points.’

    His brother is dying and this is the best you can do? Fucking hell.

    I know. I know. It’s a symptom of the political Stockholm Syndrome that he has induced. It’s definitely shameful to say it, but boy it’s also definitely a thought that came to mind.

  21. Sen Dianne FeinsteinVerified account@SenFeinstein
    Jun 15
    UPDATE: 43 senators now support our bill to bar children from being taken from their parents at the border. We still need a Republican senator to join. If you’re represented by a Republican senator, please ask them to cosponsor S.3036. #FamiliesBelongTogether

    Not one Republican Senator can find it in him/herself to support a bill that keeps Trump from separating children from their parents when they cross the border? Not even one?

  22. They have. arrangements ideas intentions projects proposals strategy’s suggestions aims contrivances disposition intent plots projection proposition scenarios stratagems tactics and a game plan to flog off the ABC but DEFINITELY no plans.

  23. Boer (I went out for a bit).

    There were slightly under 50,000 boat arrivals over 4 years at its peak (after we’d been party to an illegal invasion and bombing of Iraq (i.e. not “50,000 per year” as Abbott likes to say- but if you want to get on his racist c@#t bandwagon that’s your own choice).

    Typically there were fewer than 10,000 per year coming by boat. Australia can easily absorb that many people who are so keen to be here that they’ll risk that journey. If they are found not to be refugees, then send them home – but over 90% are found to be refugees.

    Why do people get so upset about this? A: because they are selfish and racist c@#ts. Why do people then exploit the issue? A: because they are opportunistic (i.e. even bigger) c@#ts.

    Are you racist or opportunist? I don’t pick you as racist.

    Labor is crap on this. Just admit it. There is no moral reason to support off-shore and indefinite detention. If you are not racist then your support for liberal/labor on this is cynical and amoral/immoral opportunism. You can tell yourself that you are being pragmatic and respecting the will of the people but you are just pandering to prejudice- just like the people who turned back ships of jewish refugees in the 1930s.

    If people get here and are found to be refugees we should accept them. we can afford it. they will make good citizens. if you don’t think they can be good citizens, then think about your prejudices.

    Explain to me why you think otherwise. The excuse ‘this issue is a vote changer in western sydney and brisbane’ is not a morally justifiable position – it is rank political c@#tishness. If you have problem with a few thousand desperate people a year seeking refuge here then White Australia remains part of your psyche and you should join PHON or support dutton for PM.

  24. One of the things the PR comms specialists teach the pollies is to lie very well. Don’t answer the question asked, reframe it by saying “the real question is…” or “what voters are interested in is…”

    There are also a bunch of catchphrases, one of the most hackneyed being “there are no plans to….”

    Whenever you hear it, you can be assured there has been discussions, proposals, flagpole flying (to see who would salute..). Now a plan is a finalised blueprint, with draft proposed legislation, etc etc.

    Of course we have no plans.

  25. sf

    You totally ignored my points and re-iterated your own points.

    My view is that 50,000 is not a few thousand. You are apparently apply Greens maths which, as we all know, is different from all other maths. It is like the trillion dollars after savings that Di Natale has yet to fund for his UBI.

    My point is that asylum seekers are the means by which the Far Right is destroying left and centre-left governments throughout Europe. It enabled Brexit. It is destroying Merkel. Le Pen will be the next President of France if Macron falters. Prime Minister Dutton beckons. And you blandly ignore it. Just like that smarmy self-satisfied Greens idiot in Elizabeth the other night.

    The Greens are not totally irrelevant here, of course. They are the gift that keeps giving to the Duttons and the Farages and the Le Pens of the world.

  26. Now this is class from a journo in my view.

    Lee Lin Chin SBS tweets
    No we mustn’t. But I chose to, because no one will ever tell me how to dress. https://twitter.com/ajphelo/status/1008269642366791681

    @ajphelp tweets
    Must you continue to subject us @SBSNews viewers to the @LeeLinChinSBS avant garde fashion show every weekend?? Really? Don’t need to see the latest whacky outfit and new frames

  27. Whenever you hear it, you can be assured there has been discussions, proposals, flagpole flying (to see who would salute..). Now a plan is a finalised blueprint, with draft proposed legislation, etc etc.

    Of course we have no plans.

    We already know that the govt is willing to countenance reshaping our humanitarian visa process to give preference to white Sth Africans because Dutton first raised this some months ago, along with Tony Abbott. Yes JBishop shot out to say ‘we have no plans’, but the fact that a senior minister AND several backbenchers have been lobbying for this means JBishop cannot be taken at her word.

    Now the party’s national conference has voted up a policy motion which would do just that. Why people are focusing on the ABC privatisation and not the white Sth African farmer queue jumper issue is surely a valid question.

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