Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Labor roars back in the latest Essential poll, despite a slump in Bill Shorten’s personal ratings.

The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll sharply reverses a recent trend away from Labor, who are back to leading 54-46 on two-party preferred after their lead fell to 51-49 in the previous poll. This is apparently driven by a four point drop in the Coalition primary vote, but as usual we will have to wait until later today for the full numbers. However, it’s a curiously different story on leadership ratings, on which Malcolm Turnbull gains two on approval since last month to reach 42% while remaining steady on 42% disapproval, while Bill Shorten is down four to 33% and up five to 46%. Turnbull’s lead over Shorten as preferred prime minister is unchanged, shifting from 40-26 to 41-27. Like ReachTEL and unlike Newspoll, Essential has posed a straightforward question on company tax cuts that finds approval and disapproval tied on 37%. The poll also finds 68% support for an increase in Newstart.

UPDATE: Full results here. The Coalition primary vote crashes from 40% to 36%, Labor’s rises one to 37%, the Greens are steady on 10% and One Nation are steady on 8%.

UPDATE 2: Further details from those ReachTEL polls for Sky News, which were conducted last Wednesday. In the national poll, after allocating results from a forced response follow-up for the 5.1% undecided, the primary votes were Coalition 36.5%, Labor 35.3%, Greens 10.7%, One Nation 9.3% and others 8.2%, translating into a 52-48 lead for Labor after respondent-allocated preferences favoured them by 54.8-45.2. Malcolm Turnbull’s lead on the forced response preferred prime minister question was almost exactly unchanged at 54.6-45.4 (54.5-45.5 last month); his very good plus good rating went from 29.9% to 30.8%, and his poor plus very poor from 32.6% to 37.0%. Bill Shorten went from 28.4% to 27.7% on good plus very good, and from 35.5% to 39.9% on poor plus very poor.

In the poll for the Braddon by-election, after allocating the forced follow-up results from the 5.9% undecided, the primary votes were Liberal 48.2%, Labor 34.5%, Greens 6.6%, independents 7.2%, others 3.5%, resulting in a 54-46 Liberal lead on respondent-allocated two-party preferred. In Longman, with the 7.1% initially undecided likewise allocated, the results are Liberal National Party 40.4%, Labor 37.3%, independents 5.5%, Greens 2.7% and others 14.1% (confirming there was no specific option for One Nation), resulting in an LNP lead of 52-48. Respondents for these polls were asked how they would vote “if a by-election in the federal electorate of X were to be held today”. The by-election polls were conducted last Wednesday, from samples of 824 in Braddon and 810 in Longman; the national poll was conducted Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 2523.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,057 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. @bemused
    I @mentioned you at the beginning of my comment so my ‘But, yes’ was implied agreement with your however rude and broad-stroked dismissal of its likelihood of being brand (model being a subset) specific issue.
    Someone is going out of their way to look for a petty argument, while their target was in 99% agreement in the first place, while leaving open the possibility of an albeit much less likely scenario.

  2. Besides, If you want to get more specific.
    There are multiple well known antenna issues with multiple iPhone models that something as simple as using the wrong hand to make a call severely limits your signal.
    If you held an iphone 4 in the lower left, it would lose signal due to bad antenna design/placement.
    5 and 6, where notoriously bad when used with the left hand instead of the right… In fact most mobiles have much worse signal in the left hand.

  4. Not to mention the possibility of an OS or firmware (or hardware, as in the case of the iPhone antennas) glitch, which would naturally impact only a single model or family of devices. Particularly if it were to occur in iOS, where the walled-garden nature of the platform means there’s only one device manufacturer and only a handful of different models.

    It may be unlikely that an outage would affect only some device models and not others, but it’s certainly not impossible. Or even implausible.

    And speaking of device-specific issues, this one was fun:

    https://www.express.co.uk/life-style/science-technology/919343/iPhone-Text-Message-Crash-WhatsApp

  5. Zeh @ #1650 Friday, June 8th, 2018 – 3:21 pm

    @bemused
    I @mentioned you at the beginning of my comment so my ‘But, yes’ was implied agreement with your however rude and broad-stroked dismissal of its likelihood of being brand (model being a subset) specific issue.
    Someone is going out of their way to look for a petty argument, while their target was in 99% agreement in the first place, while leaving open the possibility of an albeit much less likely scenario.

    I have no idea what you are on about.
    I was merely dismissive of some nonsense.

  6. I think the continuing self destruction of Barnaby Joyce has been bad for the coalition, but his removal from the Deputy Prime Ministership good for Malcolm Turnbull. That’s my only explaination for the return to the status quo on 2PP and Malcolm’s approval ratings rising.

  7. Craig Emerson‏ @DrCraigEmerson · 24m24 minutes ago

    Disgraceful that conservative media and the Coalition Government are impugning the reputation of Brian Schmidt, a Nobel Physicist, for insisting on academic independence @ANUmedia

  8. Zeh @ #1651 Friday, June 8th, 2018 – 3:31 pm

    Besides, If you want to get more specific.
    There are multiple well known antenna issues with multiple iPhone models that something as simple as using the wrong hand to make a call severely limits your signal.
    If you held an iphone 4 in the lower left, it would lose signal due to bad antenna design/placement.
    5 and 6, where notoriously bad when used with the left hand instead of the right… In fact most mobiles have much worse signal in the left hand.

    All of which would be present at all times and not related to the state of the network.
    Next non-sequitur?

  9. a r @ #1653 Friday, June 8th, 2018 – 3:39 pm

    Not to mention the possibility of an OS or firmware (or hardware, as in the case of the iPhone antennas) glitch, which would naturally impact only a single model or family of devices. Particularly if it were to occur in iOS, where the walled-garden nature of the platform means there’s only one device manufacturer and only a handful of different models.

    It may be unlikely that an outage would affect only some device models and not others, but it’s certainly not impossible. Or even implausible.

    And speaking of device-specific issues, this one was fun:

    https://www.express.co.uk/life-style/science-technology/919343/iPhone-Text-Message-Crash-WhatsApp

    And this would be connected to temporary problems on a network how?

  11. One might regard it as ironic that “western civilization” is being invoked as basis on which Abbott, News Corp and whatever right-wing chin-strokers they can dredge up to ride on Jerusalem seek to trash the basic idea that universities are places of critical inquiry, and a school where ideas would be uncritically celebrated is anathema to that. But “irony” isn’t exactly apt, because such doublethink — the equivalent of slapping the word “university” on the IPA and treating it as a place of serious learning — is consistent with what remains of the ideology of the Right.

    That’s where freedom of speech is a fundamental right, until it is used by people who aren’t white males, or used to kick upward, not downward, at which point hysteria ensues. That’s where the rigour of the marketplace is celebrated, until one’s business mates need a favour. That’s where the virtues of small government are held to be unquestionable, until your opponent attempts to curb handouts to your allies, at which point one must yell “class warfare”. Where freedom of association is cherished, except in relation to unions, which must be relentlessly persecuted.

    And all of these issues are held to be of paramount political importance, because they obsess the Liberal Party base. These are the people who seriously believe 18C is a barbecue-stopper around the country, who believe voters think of nothing but throwing off the yoke of political correctness. In fact, voters are focused on their stagnant wages, how their kids will be able to afford a home, and the appalling length of time they spend commuting. Obsessing about holy wars ill-serves a Prime Minister already seen as dangerously out of touch.

    https://www.crikey.com.au/2018/06/08/ramsay-silliness-shows-a-government-focused-on-its-far-right-fringe-not-voters/

  12. Tomorrow’s G7, or rather G6+1 meeting, is shaping up to be one for the ages.

    As we reported previously, chancellor Merkel already was setting the ground for the Toronto showdown among the world’s top political leaders, vowing to challenge Donald Trump on virtually every issue, from trade to climate, and warning that the lack of room for compromise means leaders may fail to agree on a final statement, an unprecedented event at a summit of the world’s 7 most advanced nations.

    Then, earlier today, in comments made alongside Canada PM Justin Trudeau in Ottawa, French President Emmanuel Macron said that no head of state is “eternal” and that he stands ready to work with the six other Group of Seven members if U.S. wants to stand alone.

    “You say President Trump doesn’t care. Maybe. But none of us are eternal and our countries, the commitments taken, go beyond us. None of us who have been elected by the people can say ‘all prior commitments disappear.’ It’s just not true, there is a continuity in state affairs at the heart of international laws. Sometimes we’ve inherited some commitments that weren’t core to our beliefs, but we stuck to them, because that is how it works for nations. And that will be the case for the United States – like for every great democracy”, Macron said quoted by Bloomberg.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-06-07/trump-lashes-out-macron-trudeau-ahead-g61-summit

    Donald J. Trump
    ✔
    @realDonaldTrump
    Please tell Prime Minister Trudeau and President Macron that they are charging the U.S. massive tariffs and create non-monetary barriers. The EU trade surplus with the U.S. is $151 Billion, and Canada keeps our farmers and others out. Look forward to seeing them tomorrow.

    8:04 AM – Jun 8, 2018

    ?itok=lLUDD2zo

  13. * also posted on the by-elections thread *

    The Reachtel poll has affected the betting markets:

    Sportsbet now has Sharkie $1.70 and Downer $1.85 (closed last night)

    Centrebet Sharkie 1.75 and Downer 2.00 (closed last night)

    William Hill 1.75 and Downer 2.00 (closed last night)

    Ladbrokes currently closed, presumably to adjust the odds similar to the others. (EDIT: In the sidebar they still show Sharkie 3.75 and Downer 1.14 but that’s obviously not in real time. Did anyone place a bet on Sharkie for $3.75?)

  14. @bemused
    ‘All of which would be present at all times and not related to the state of the network.’
    Sure, but if a service is degraded then this ‘present at all times, if you hold this particular brand/model, in this one way, ‘ attenuation could then bump signal strength under a connectivity threshold. Pretty simple physics. And pretty clearly a possible brand/model dependency

  15. Zeh @ #1663 Friday, June 8th, 2018 – 4:26 pm

    @bemused
    ‘All of which would be present at all times and not related to the state of the network.’
    Sure, but if a service is degraded then this ‘present at all times, if you hold this particular brand/model, in this one way, ‘ attenuation could then bump signal strength under a connectivity threshold. Pretty simple physics. And pretty clearly a possible brand/model dependency

    What lies behind your obsession?
    The original question was simply pointless.

  16. I’m not even sure what “Western Civilisation” actually is. Is it just where very white people happen to be at the time? What is the motivation behind studying that?
    It’s often said that Western Civilisation started in Ancient Greece. Is modern Greece part of Western Civilisation? The term seems largely meaningless and highly ambiguous.

  18. Downer gets caned in the Tiser
    Miserable image is quite true.

    “GEORGINA Downer faces a huge challenge to shake off a miserable image in her bid to win the Mayo by-election, as an exclusive poll reveals the level of negativity voters have toward her.

    A YouGov Galaxy poll commissioned by The Advertiser shows incumbent Rebekha Sharkie is set to romp home in her battle to keep the Adelaide Hills seat she was forced to vacate as part of the citizenship fiasco.”

  19. rhwombat
    Friday, June 8th, 2018 – 9:26 am
    Comment #1537

    Harking back to the New Yorker link, this

    “Regarding people as having lives of equal worth means recognizing each as having a common core of humanity. Without being open to their humanity, it is impossible to provide good care to people—to insure, for instance, that you’ve given them enough anesthetic before doing a procedure. To see their humanity, you must put yourself in their shoes. That requires a willingness to ask people what it’s like in those shoes. It requires curiosity about others and the world beyond your boarding zone.”

    is the stuff of tomes, empathy I mean, but what has been haunting me all day shines a light on the truth of it all, and it harks back to my earlier post on ‘Breaking The Silence’ and the rethinking of the occupation, that it is perfectly possible to be anti-occupation and be pro-Israel, and in fact make the case that being being pro-occupation is actually anti-Israel, which is what the young handsome ex-IDF explained so patiently, and in the process told this story, which I think was his awakening.

    He led a team in the ‘take-over’ of a strategically chosen Arab house, bursting in a 2am, the family in panic and fear, herded and intimidated and dominated into submission. He told of holding the father, now blindfolded and handcuffed, hard up against a wall. He was a physician. The men talked, father physician and youth soldier assailant. Led by the doctor, without anger or judgement, they spoke of the lack of humanity of what was happening, at that very moment.

    I’ve dwelt on this all day. I believe the doctor’s practised humanity is what helped him actually put himself into the soldiers’s shoes, and in that moment the miracle happened, and they joined, and the soldier saw himself in the Arab’s shoes, and he was changed.

  20. I like this bit from the Crikey article:

    That might be a difficult phone call for the Prime Minister, who wouldn’t be used to talking to someone who is not merely smarter than he is, but several orders of magnitude so.

    😆

  21. Just found this (under the ‘i’ button):
    Macquarie Room
    Mon, Feb 8, 2016 at 3:21pm – Sun, Feb 8, 2026 at 4:21pm AEDT

    Now that is planning for the future!

  24. Are they really so blind they cannot see the comparison?

    Sky News Australia‏Verified account @SkyNewsAust

    Prime Minister @TurnbullMalcolm: @AustralianLabor’s former member for Longman knew she wasn’t eligible to sit in parliament, and @billshortenmp knew that too…but she stayed there and drew her parliamentary salary.

    Schloss Lulzville Schadenfreude‏ @GeorgeBludger

    Response: Barnaby Joyce.

  26. Perhaps the Ramsay Centre would have more luck selling ‘Western Civilisation to one of those RW evangelical universities in the US.

  27. Sharkie + Labor + Greens = 61%

    All Labor and the Greens have to do is avoid internecine warfare and bashing non-major parties, and we’ve got this. 🙂

  29. Zeh @ #1650 Friday, June 8th, 2018 – 3:21 pm

    @bemused
    I @mentioned you at the beginning of my comment so my ‘But, yes’ was implied agreement with your however rude and broad-stroked dismissal of its likelihood of being brand (model being a subset) specific issue.
    Someone is going out of their way to look for a petty argument, while their target was in 99% agreement in the first place, while leaving open the possibility of an albeit much less likely scenario.

    That’s bemused in a nutshell. Rude.

  30. citizen @ #1675 Friday, June 8th, 2018 – 4:55 pm

    Perhaps the Ramsay Centre would have more luck selling ‘Western Civilisation to one of those RW evangelical universities in the US.

    I was wondering why they have’t approached either Bond University, Notre Dame or the Catholic University, here in Australia? They are more up it’s alley. Though they don’t have the cachet associated with aligning oneself with one of the Sandstone Unis.

  31. C@tmomma @ #1677 Friday, June 8th, 2018 – 4:57 pm

    Zeh @ #1650 Friday, June 8th, 2018 – 3:21 pm

    @bemused
    I @mentioned you at the beginning of my comment so my ‘But, yes’ was implied agreement with your however rude and broad-stroked dismissal of its likelihood of being brand (model being a subset) specific issue.
    Someone is going out of their way to look for a petty argument, while their target was in 99% agreement in the first place, while leaving open the possibility of an albeit much less likely scenario.

    That’s bemused in a nutshell. Rude.

    Rude? Where?
    Typical of C@t jumping in just to throw some snark around.

  34. Sharkie netsat +52%, Downer netsat -10%
    Ouch!!

    Rebekha Sharkie
    62% Positive
    20% Neutral
    10% Negative
    8% Uncommitted

    Georgina Downer
    31% Positive
    21% Neutral
    41% Negative
    7% Uncommitted

  35. Diogenes @ #1665 Friday, June 8th, 2018 – 4:40 pm

    I’m not even sure what “Western Civilisation” actually is. Is it just where very white people happen to be at the time? What is the motivation behind studying that?
    It’s often said that Western Civilisation started in Ancient Greece. Is modern Greece part of Western Civilisation? The term seems largely meaningless and highly ambiguous.

    From the Guardian article this is what the Sydney Uni academics think Abbott & Howard define Western Civilisation as she will be taught, as:

    “We are a university, not a training institute for a future political ‘cadre’,” the letter states. 🙂

  37. Snap Dio, I was just about to post the same!! 🙂

    The opinion numbers suggest it will take a lot of good exposure to change peoples minds.

    Maybe they should bring back Jamie? 🙂

  38. Perhaps the Ramsey Institute was taken over by the barbarians ? In Paul Ramsey’s wiki entry re the money he left it said.

    <blockquote>……….Ramsay, who had "wanted a significant part of his personal fortune to be spent on funding an academic centre to revive the liberal arts and humanities".

  40. Next move might be Turnbull threatening a funding cut to any university that doesn’t agree to take on ‘Western Civilisation’.

    Threats are his way of conducting business.

  41. Barney
    If Downer gets her arse handed to her on a plate by the good burghers of Mayo, there will be such an oversupply of Schadenfreude on PB that we’ll be able to dine out on it for months.

  42. I’ve asked this question before, with no response, and I will concede that Sharkie is a more appealing person than Downer, but what difference does it make whichever of them get in? The Liberals will have the guarantee of Sharkie’s vote on every dismal issue as they have had in the past..

  44. Fulvio
    I wouldn’t be surprised if Sharkie goes independent in the general election if she gets through this one.

  45. Fulvio Sammut @ #1691 Friday, June 8th, 2018 – 5:32 pm

    I’ve asked this question before, with no response, and I will concede that Sharkie is a more appealing person than Downer, but what difference does it make whichever of them get in? The Liberals will have the guarantee of Sharkie’s vote on every dismal issue as they have had in the past..

    She might start redefining where she stands on at least some issues.
    Why would she offer unconditional support to the Libs when they posed the major threat to her re-election and will continue to do so in future?

  46. Fulvio

    Sharkie’s re-election may not change the numbers in the parliament but will be a mighty blow to Turnbull.

    Every little thing that helps undermine the shambles that is his government is to be welcomed.

  49. Dio

    I would love 58-42 to be right but im still skeptical. Seat polling being unreliable and all that.

    Ms Blow-in suffering a blowout has a nice ring to it.

  50. I hope you are both right, but I fear that the past will be a good predictor of the future yet again …

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