The latest Newspoll result has Labor’s lead back to 52-48 after a one point move in the Coalition’s favour a fortnight ago, from primary votes of Coalition 38% (down one), Labor 38% (steady), Greens 9% (steady) and One Nation 8% (up two).
On personal ratings, Malcolm Turnbull is steady on 39% approval and down one on disapproval to 49%; Bill Shorten is up one on approval to 34% and steady on disapproval at 55%; and Malcolm Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister increases slightly from 46-32 to 47-30. There is also a question on preferred Labor leader that has Anthony Albanese on 26%, Bill Shorten at 23% and Tanya Plibsersek at 23%, but I gather the favour hasn’t been extended to Malcolm Turnbull.
Also featured is a poorly framed question as to “when should company tax cuts be introduced”, which primes responses favourable to cuts both in the wording of the question and the structure of the response options, two out of three of which are pro-tax cut. For what they are worth, the results are that 36% favour such a cut “as soon as possible”, 27% do so “in stages over the next ten years” and, contrary to polls that haven’t privileged a positive response in this way, only 29% want one “not at all”.
The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1591.
Pies?
Despite being called out on this lie many times, boringwarmonger keeps trying it on. He waits for a week or so in the forlorn hope that everyone has forgotten it, and tries sneaking it again.
Similar tactics to the ones all his fellow Tories use. Don’t be fooled by him. He is opposed to everything that Labor stands for. He is Joe Bullock in disguise. Even ESJ, Wayne, Lee and Arthur are to the left of boringwarmonger.
Peter Dutton really is a piece of work, what is the reference to pies?
Don’t worry everyone, you’re safe. as long as you’re not a fly.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-30/khaled-merhi-cleared-after-weapon-found-to-be-fly-swat/9815708
Sarah Henderson not a nodding head behind TM this week.
Some men have long torsos and short legs. Some others have long legs and short torsos. Throw in fat arses, skinny bums, large waists, love handles, thick thighs, and lolly sticks and that’s more than your average Lowe’s clothes rack can cater for.
Add to the above experimental evidence which conclusively proves that no two pairs of pants claiming to the exactly the same size actually are so and it’s hardly surprising we opt for crumply ankles and yes, very rarely use the alteration voucher.
Truffles pouring on “merchant banker” class bullshit.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2018/may/31/greg-hunt-brian-burston-coalition-labor-politics-live
The PM refuses to table document he was preaching from – transparency?
“I have never sold out the people I represent. ”
He’s sold out everybody who had hopes that he would be an effective and progressive leader. Bit of a slap in the face to voters who had hopes for him before it became obvious that the RWnutjobbies fully own his arse.
Sorry for further intrusion in terms of diet instead of politics – but some here seem to think I am coming from a fad diet perspective. This is just a short list of medicos that have written, presented and do clinical work using ketogenic diets. If people want to say these highly regarded practitioners are quack, by all means:
Dr Eric Westman MD (Duke University Clinic)
Dr Christian Selig
Dr Jason Fung (Nephrologist Canada)
Dr Georgia Ede (Psychiatrist)
Dr Priyanka Wali
Dr Tim Noakes
Dr Sarah Hallberg (Diabetes Specialist)
Dr Jay Wortman (Diabetes)
DR David Unwin
Dr Jen Unwin
Dr Ali Irshad Al Lawati
Dr Jeffrey Gerber
Dr Terry Wahl (MS specialist – & self-cured MS researcher)
Dr Peter Buckner (Aust. Sports Medicine – Aust cricket team MD)
Dr Joanne McCormack MD
Dr Aseem Malhotra (Cardiologist)
Dr Ted Naiman
Dr Ian Lake
Dr Peter Attia (His TED talk on diabetes is AMAZING)
Dr Keith Runyan (Also Type1 Diabetic)
Dr Kailish Chand (OBE)
Dr Stephen Finley
Dr Amy McKenzie
Dr Jeff Volek
Dr James McCarter
Dr Michael Scahill
Re: Stirling poll. If I were the Coalition’s political strategists, I’d be getting worried. Single-seat polls are notoriously inaccurate, but a) the sample size is big (1,735) and b) the fact that Labor’s close enough to have a poll result tied means that Keenan will be in for a fight this election. Assuming this poll’s accurate, and that it more-or-less replicates across the metropolitan Perth area, the Coalition has three choices:
1) Sandbag the vulnerable seats – put resources into defending each marginal Coalition MP (Wyatt, Irons, Porter, Keenan and Hastie) and try to keep them all;
2) Go on the offense and attempt to force Labor to divert efforts to defending its own marginal WA seats (Anne Aly in Cowan & whoever wins in Perth); or
3) Pick and choose which seats to defend, writing some off as un-saveable – basically, perform triage to minimize the losses without spreading resources thin. This would mean abandoning Hasluck, and probably Swan and Pearce too, in order to concentrate efforts in Stirling and Canning.
The Coalition’s choice will tell us much of their expectations of the election – trying to defend everywhere shows that they think they can scrape a third term in office, perhaps by the skin of their teeth. While going on the offense means that they’re trying Hail Mary plays to remain in office, and writing off some seats to defend others means that they’re accepting they’ll lose the election and are trying to save the furniture so they can contest the next one more effectively.
The question is, what happens to Porter? Whatever they do, Porter’s vulnerable – Pearce is high on Labor’s target list, and if any real swing is on, it’ll fall. But Porter’s an entrenched power player in the hard-Right faction of the Liberals, and is unlikely to take electoral defeat lying down. If the Libs do write Pearce off, he’ll push hard for a safe seat to be parachuted into…but none of those MPs are retiring, which would set up some nastiness. Failing that, he could try to be demoted to the Senate which would at least be safe, but that more or less dead-ends his career – it’s not unheard of for Senators to be promoted to the House, but it doesn’t happen often. And you can’t be PM from the Senate.
Now now, Truffles never has sold out the people he works for – he’s just sold out the rest of the country TO the people he works for!
A different perspective on the Venezuela election:
https://www.truthdig.com/articles/venezuela-defeated-the-u-s-in-its-election-now-it-must-build-an-independent-economy/
Frydenberg has finally made a positive decision for an endangered species, the Abbott’s Booby on Christmas Island. (Earlier patches of habitat having been ruined by the installation of a refugee confinement centre in Howard’s time.)
Amazon to block Australian shoppers from using its US site
Amazon will reportedly block Australian consumers from buying products from its overseas e-commerce sites in response to the nation’s good and services tax changes.
Shoppers visiting the US store Amazon.com and the online behemoth’s other overseas sites will be redirected to Amazon.com.au from July 1.
This coincides with GST changes where online retailers will have to apply the 10 per cent GST to goods bought from overseas sites and shipped to Australia, where currently the tax only applies to imports of goods above $1000.
Amazon told the ABC it regretted making the decision.
“We have had to assess the workability of the legislation as a global business with multiple international sites,” a spokeswoman said.
https://thewest.com.au/business/retail/amazon-to-block-australian-shoppers-from-using-its-us-site-ng-b88852929z
Matt
The main reason people regard single seat polls as unreliable is that the sample is small and part of a state or national poll with a decent sample size for that purpose.
If you use a large enough sample in a single seat, it will be accurate.
https://theconversation.com/greens-urge-a-publicly-owned-peoples-bank-as-part-of-a-big-government-platform-94343
The Greens want to turn the Reserve Bank into a People’s Bank. Its job will be to grab all the services currently provided by private banks including home lending.
The home mortgage lending market is currently $1.7 trillion. Housing lending is roughly half of all personal debt so we can double that to $3.4 trillion that Di Natale wants the Reserve Bank to borrow. If Di Natale wants to clear up the costings, he should do so. Until he does we will have to do the numbers for him.
Of course DG and the Greens reckon that there is a New Money Theory and that they will just be able to make up the $3.4 trillion in capitalization and flood the market with it. It will be all good.
As for the UBI. That will go to every adult. Assume that there are around 19,000,000 adults in Australia, counting some of the Greens.
Everyone agrees that Newstart is not nearly enough for UBI so let’s make the UBI $30,000. (Di Natale can correct this any time he wants to but he does not do costings, so don’t hold your breath.)
That is around $570 billion a year or $2.2 trillion over forward estimates.
That is $5.6 trillion in spending that Di Natale is offering his adoring acolytes.
Plus it is free money so there are only good consequences.
Real conservationists are bailing out. Next will be the adults who have seen this sort of economic nonsense before. All that will be left will be some deluded youth who actually believe that you can make something out of nothing.
lizzie
Probably a mistake. Frydenberg’s Booby.
lizzie
He just misunderstood what they meant when they were talking about saving ‘Abbott’s Booby”
Fiat currency is making something out of nothing. Pretty much by definition.
Bring back the Gold Standard, I say!
booleanbach
Uh… the election was 100% fair within the rules.
The Government made the rules.
The rules are that the Opposition cannot win government. Simply impossible.
So it did not run. Why add legitimacy to a circus?
Apart from that, the election was 100% fine!
Also apart from that, over 800,000 Venezuelan economic refugees have already fled the country.
The problem for Venezuela becoming an independent economy is that the ultra leftists, who have destroyed the existing economy, are going to have to get used to idea that if they want something, somebody is going to have to pay for it with stuff that somebody else wants to have. This stuff is generally called money.
Their currency is worth nothing because it disobeys this rule by around 100%. As a result nobody wants Venezuelan money. Not even the Venezuelans. Especially not the Venezuelans.
Even ultra lefties eventually get it that economies need currencies that mean something to all concerned.
@ Matt re: Stirling poll.
My predciciton for the next election is that the L/NP can save the furniture in WA or they can save it in Queensland, but not both. A quick look at the number of winnable seats in each state and it’s obvious what they’ll do.
The feedback that I’ve had from my local state MP is that the Liberals go no credit from their decision to make the funding commitments they announced for WA recently. I also saw in today’s dead tree edition of the West that Trumble said the report in to fixing the allocation of GST would be delayed for months, an issue which is red hot in WA.
In recent months Porter (my federal MP) has been linked firstly to Curtin, which he denied and Mesma stated she’s not going anywhere, then more recently to Moore, where Ian Goodenough is in a spot of preselection bother, which Porter denied.
I’ve been door knocking in Pearce recently and my feel is that Pearce will be a Labor win come the next election.
ar
Ah, yes. But there is money supply and money supply. Have a look at Venezuela, Zimbabwe…
grimace
I don’t understand.
Are you essentially saying that they will bail out of buying WA votes and concentrate instead on buying Qland votes?
Is Tony Abbott endangered species ?
Gichuhi
Does the Liberal Party allow everyone “a fair go”? Don’t all speak at once.
Another Labor candidate for Darling Range:
https://www.watoday.com.au/politics/western-australia/take-two-mcgowan-announces-new-darling-range-byelection-candidate-20180531-p4zim9.html
Grunt an angry Kermit behind closed doors. Another “anger management” story drops.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2018/may/31/greg-hunt-brian-burston-coalition-labor-politics-live
lizzie
Lucy meant that she is looking forward to the corporates paying tax, homelessness being fixed, waiting lists being halved instead of doubled, all the restrictive ‘security’ acts and regulations being repealed, gun laws being tightened, and an end to foreign newspaper owners being able to skew the national debate by way of biased reporting.
Oh, and Lucy also means giving public broadcasters a fair go instead of trying to kill them off.
poroti
So, we have found the leaker! Frydenberg can hardly hide the grin!
I hope that Tania Lawrence is totally open and upfront about never have got past grade six.
Boerwar @ #2024 Thursday, May 31st, 2018 – 1:42 pm
Yes.
They won’t be able to save the furniture in Western Australia AND Queensland. It’s very possible they won’t be able to save the furniture in either state.
On the ground attitudes are hardening. Working on the assumption that the Stirling seat poll is accurate, and it is in line with Bludgertrack, Cowan is a safe hold for Labor; Labor will easily win Hasluck, Pearce and Swan, and; Canning and Stirling will go down to the wire.
For me it is telling that the Liberals are not running a candidate in Perth, where I grew up. Its on a 3% margin and on current boundaries is gentrifying, and I expect it will flip to Liberal in the next few elections on its way to being a safe Liberal seat. Having seen the Stirling seat poll, the Liberal internal polling for Perth must be abysmal to justify the decision not to run.
“The Liberal Party is founded on the values I hold close to my heart; freedom of choice, conscience, thought and belief, a fair go, mutual
obligation, contributing to society and the freedom to disagree agreeably.
Does the Liberal Party allow everyone “a fair go”? Don’t all speak at once.”
Ahh…but where will her new besties put her on the Senate ticket next election?? 🙂 suspect she will get dudded.
Matt, Grimmace.
WA will be a save the furniture approach for the Libs. Little effort in Cowan against Anne Aly. Hasluck and Pearce will have a little bit more but will be sacrificed.
Stirling and Canning will be defended.
Ides of March not.logged in @ #2034 Thursday, May 31st, 2018 – 2:01 pm
Agree.
Demographically Stirling is now out of reach and Canning via urbanisation is probably one normal election cycle away from winnable, assuming similar boundaries after the next redistribution.
It won’t affect his pre-selection for the Liberals, though. :sigh:
“he’s just sold out the rest of the country TO the people he works for!”
No argument there from me.
On Porter…would be good to see him knocked off. And really, at some point the Libs need to rid themselves of Bishop in Curtin. She is well dug in so it may require nuclear weapons to shift her but i would think they be looking at a safe seat like Curtin for someone who may be a serious leadership contender in the future. Bishop just isn’t.
imacca
But Jewels leads in the fundraising stakes, I believe.
bemused @ #2017 Thursday, May 31st, 2018 – 12:28 pm
I was reading the other day about single seat polling, I can’t find it, maybe KB or WB, who was saying that it has that it had the equivalent accuracy of a State or National poll 1/6 it’s size.
So in this case 1,735 equates to 289.
To get something of the accuracy of Newspoll you’d need to poll over 6,000 people in the electorate. 🙂
NBN
I have lost count of the number of times I have rung to advise of yet another drop out
Another technician on the way
If there is any one issue which is turning the tide against this government it has to be the NBN
And it takes the landline telephone with it – what do our Aged who are not acquainted with mobile phones do?
This is beyond a disgrace
“But Jewels leads in the fundraising stakes, I believe.”
Yup, but she can still do that even if she isn’t a sitting member of parliament. She will never be without influence in the Libs. But, does she really want to head for the opposition benches next election??? Oh, i reckon she will stay in place and recontest Curtin, but that she should call time and fade away.
Amy Remeikis from the Guardian blog:
–
–
I quite like Amy.
Sedition trial in Fiji
http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-22/fiji-court-finds-journalists-not-guilty/9787324?pfmredir=sm
laughtong @ #1983 Thursday, May 31st, 2018 – 2:08 pm
Hi just logged on and saw this question. Yes I have used it and it worked seamlessly and little delay
Hunt admits to a second instance of bullying behaviour.
Once is a coincidence… twice is a Hunt.
One wonders how many other instances are lurking to come back and bite him?
Whisper @ #2045 Thursday, May 31st, 2018 – 4:29 pm
Whisper- Can you recall which company?
Venezuela has enough oil to buy exchange for whatever it wants or needs.
http://about.abc.net.au/statements/abc-response-to-maurice-newman-in-the-australian/