Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

Essential’s two-party gap narrows to its lowest point in 18 months, despite Labor’s tax and budget policies being favoured over the Coalition’s.

We have an Essential Research poll for the third week in a row, last week’s post-budget poll having been additional to the normal fortnightly cycle, rather than an adjustment. The result is the Coalition’s best from Essential since November 2016, with the Labor lead down to 51-49 from 52-48 last week, and 53-47 the week before. Primary votes will be with us when the full report is published later today. UPDATE: Full report here. The Coalition is up two to 40%, Labor is steady on 36%, the Greens are steady on 10% and One Nation are up a point to 8%.

This is despite a range of results on tax and budget matters that are uniformly favourable for Labor and/or unfavourable for the Coalition. As reported by The Guardian, the poll finds Labor’s income tax policy favoured over the Coalition’s by 45% to 33%, and 44% favouring Labor’s “increasing spending on health and education while giving a tax cut to low and middle-income earners”, over “the Coalition’s approach, which is to give both companies and workers a tax cut”. Sixty per cent said they did not want company tax cuts to proceed; 50% supported Labor’s proposed tightening of negative gearing, with 24% opposed; and 42% supported Labor’s dividend imputation policy, with 27% opposed. However, the two parties were tied at 32% on the question of best party to manage a fair tax system, with 22% saying it made no difference.

The funding cut to the ABC was supported by 35% and opposed by 45%, and 36% supported the cut to the Australian Securities and Investments Commission, with 39% opposed. Questions on a republic found 48% supportive and 30% opposed, with 65% favouring direct election of a head of state compared with just 9% for “a governor-general style appointment by the prime minister of the day”, and 12% for appointment by a two-thirds majority of a joint sitting of parliament.

Also note the post for the Western Australia’s Darling Range by-election immediately below this one.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,114 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. Labor : We demand payoffs and lucrative sinecures

    Liberal: Whatever you can do we can always exceed you!

  2. Confessions @ #2021 Friday, May 25th, 2018 – 4:42 pm

    * Labor’s funds would ake a beating by having to focus on the by-elections, rather than benefiting from the economies of scale of a full federal election, and they would be distracted while Turnbull and company plan their federal campaign, do ads etc.

    Why would only Labor have to focus on the by-elections if they were wrapped up in a general election campaign, and the coalition not? I see it as benefiting Labor (and the coalition) if the by-elections were simply part of a general election.

    I think the scenario she’s talking about is allowing the by-elections to take place and then call a general election, thus Labor will have to double up in those electorates.

  3. I think governments will go early irregardless of what people think of early elections. It’s all about timing.

    I think an August election may be on the cards, overruling the by-election dates and throwing off the media scent of an early election.

  4. Barney:

    I still don’t see that as necessarily problematic for either Labor or the coalition.

    If it’s 5 by-elections the country is focused on, the country is focused on 5 by-elections. If it’s a general election, including 5 technical by-elections the country is focused on, then the general election will win out. The 5 by-elections simply become 5 seats being contested in a general election.

    What am I missing in Karen Middleton’s hypothetical scenario?

  5. C@tmomma @ #2013 Friday, May 25th, 2018 – 7:28 pm

    KayJay,
    Can I just tell you that none of your front pages have come through for me recently. However, a couple of the pics tonight have.

    I think I have found what happened.

    I have been using TinyPics photo hosting and today the site has shut down causing whatever was linked to the site to disappear.
    I will try posting various bits and bobs tomorrow morning using PostImage.

    I’m not sure that anybody is interested in the various Front Pages etc but at least they do no harm

    Goodnight Sweet Princess. 💤💤

  6. I agree with Michael, with a strong possibility of the Government losing they will want to get as much done before they go to the polls.

    There have already been comments by cross-benches saying they will support all the tax cuts and Labor can just reverse then if it wins Government.

    The Government may see this as opportunity to push some of there shit through. 🙂

  7. Confessions @ #2040 Friday, May 25th, 2018 – 5:35 pm

    Barney:

    I still don’t see that as necessarily problematic for either Labor or the coalition.

    If it’s 5 by-elections the country is focused on, the country is focused on 5 by-elections. If it’s a general election, including 5 technical by-elections the country is focused on, then the general election will win out. The 5 by-elections simply become 5 seats being contested in a general election.

    What am I missing in Karen Middleton’s hypothetical scenario?

    Money!

    Just saw Middleton’s comments, her scenario was;

    Allow the by-election campaigns to run for a month and then call a general election for August 4.

    This will make Labor expend resources and also allow Malcolm to ponce around the country making promises and campaigning at the tax payers expense before the caretaker conventions come into play.

    I’m not sold on it, we all saw what an extended campaign did to the Libs last time. 🙂

  9. My last few days have been busy, so a quick hello to all geophiles. Hawaii. What a week!

    My laptop spent the week with this link running in half the screen: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jTGB4SLZ33c and I was checking regularly with this link for the bigger picture: https://hawaiicountygis.maps.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=3428cd9282ff431c865eb32761793078

    This ‘quick-time’ lava geology now appears to be coming to a close. It has been a fascinating week. Something relished. Something to remember.

    (I take my hat off to the geologists among us. The dedication, patience, imagination, and detective work needed to piece together the grand history of our planet is simply inspiring. The time scales boggle my little mind. Then the physical enormity boggles my mind more.)

    And PS: One (of I’m sure many) inspiring videos: https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/multimedia_uploads/multimediaFile-2104.mp4

  10. Re Luke Foley’s ‘white flight’ comment.

    I found the full context in which Luke Foley made his comment, and Paddy Manning’s take on it provides an interesting perspective. My initial reaction to his comments were similar to those most commonly expressed.

    But I now wonder if what he was intending to adresss has been given a disservice through heavy mediation, promulgated via the reputable outlet, the Daily Telegrpah. Poor choice of words rather than intent?

    link to full quote and Paddy Manning’s take

    “I’m particularly concerned about suburbs around Fairfield because they’re carrying just a huge burden when it comes to the refugee intake from Syria and Iraq. Something like three-quarters of the Syrian and Iraqi refugees are settling around Fairfield. It’s all right to come up with a grand gesture of we’ll take 10,000 Syrian or Iraqi refugees but where’s the practical assistance? I’m saying, what about that middle ring of suburbs that have experienced, if anything, just a slow decline. In terms of employment, in terms of white flight – where many Anglo families have moved out? I’m not prepared to see the people of those suburbs denied opportunities that are taken for granted elsewhere. I celebrate the growth of the northwest and southwest and the opportunities the airport will bring … but I’m saying let’s not forget about the struggling ring of suburbs as well.”

  11. You’ve got to remember that Turnbull has plenty of unannounced goodies up his sleeve for the election and if I were him I would be waiting to see what Bill Shorten and Labor had to offer in the by-elections, then I would come over the top of them. THEN I would call the federal election.

    Though you have to admit, that Turnbull’s idea of largesse and the electorate’s often do not coincide. From what I have gathered he thinks a bridge or a cable car, or some other equally trivial gewgaw is enough to tickle the fancy of the electorate. He saves the big guns for his mates in Corporateville.

  12. Good evening all,

    Over the next few weeks you will see all of the CPG ” insiders ” pronouncing party ” sources ” claiming this will happen and or that will happen. You will read and hear ” exclusives ” from Mark Kenny, Mark Riley, Laura Tingle et al claming labor insiders are predicting doom and liberal insiders are confident of this and that.

    This seat will be in doubt or that seat is on the edge and it is all negative for Bill Shorten and his leadership. Nothing about Turnbull and the wind being blown out of his sails if his ” genius” nine week campaign goes tits up.

    Just remember. It is all bullshit. The dills in the CPG will be writing from their warm little Canberra alcoves without any direct on the ground knowledge or contact with the actual voters. There will be claims of this and that happening and ” insiders” worried about this or that seat. I say once again, It is all bullshit. The CPG would have no idea what was happening on the ground because they never move their arse outside of Canberra.

    I still recall with great amusement Mark Riley stating, with great authority, that there was no way he could see labor picking up any more than 4 or 5 seats in 2016. No way ! The same with others in the CPG.

    The CPG will pump out so many predictions based on nothing but the need to pump out anything to fill their papers, air time or wish list.

    Just remember. The CPG have no idea.

    Cheers and a great night to all.

  13. Barney:

    I’m not sold on it either, esp as the assumption seems to be that the Liberals won’t be running in any of the seats with by-elections. We already know they’ve invested in Mayo, but does Middleton think they’ll sit out Longman or Braddon?

    Besides, Middleton’s observations bear all the hallmarks of a stereotypical press gallery’s ‘Malcolm’s Cunning Plan’ that invariably goes belly up before it’s even been fully absorbed by the electorate!

    #EMTD

  14. Confessions @ #2050 Friday, May 25th, 2018 – 6:10 pm

    Barney:

    I’m not sold on it either, esp as the assumption seems to be that the Liberals won’t be running in any of the seats with by-elections. We already know they’ve invested in Mayo, but does Middleton think they’ll sit out Longman or Braddon?

    Besides, Middleton’s observations bear all the hallmarks of a stereotypical press gallery’s ‘Malcolm’s Cunning Plan’ that invariably goes belly up before it’s even been fully absorbed by the electorate!

    #EMTD

    I think we’re seeing every possible scenario trotted out because nobody really knows, possibly not even Turnbull! 🙂

  15. C@t:

    My balcony view of Labor’s policy platform is the party is running on opportunity, whereas the govt is running on mates’ rates. The coalition has been playing policy catch up to the opposition for years now, and never come close to owning the main game.

    Middleton also forgets the Abbottobads in all this. A claque of angry, old, white men privately (and sometimes publicly) seething at the injustice of their relegation to the backbench wasteland where nobody cares what they say and do. They’ve shown they don’t care whether they stay in govt or transition to opposition, so long as their hold on the party remains true and strong.

  17. Wombat

    My first impression of reports was Foley’s main point, probably not accidentally ignored by the MSM and social media outrage machine, was the placing lots of people who need various services in an area and then not providing them .

  18. poroti @ #2054 Friday, May 25th, 2018 – 6:18 pm

    Wombat

    My first impression of reports was Foley’s main point, probably not accidentally ignored by the MSM and social media outrage machine, was the placing lots of people who need various services in an area and then not providing them .

    As I said earlier it was a dumb comment worthy of McKim and the Greens.

    It completely deflected the focus away from the point he was trying to make. 🙂

  19. @Wombat

    What happened to Luke Foley is typical of social media outrage. He hasn’t said anything wrong and given the context, he was actually arguing for more resources for newly arrived refugees. I follow Foley on social media and he has already told he is putting One Nation last and has been campaigning for hate speech laws to protect minority groups.

    We had a similar incident when Labor ran ads in Queensland and left wing people immediately lost their shit on social media because there were too many white people in the ad. Utterly ridiculous. In fact, the ad was representative and would have appealed to the voters Labor needs.

    Left wing/progressives are way too eager to shit on their own.

  20. I’m not so sure that the Abbott gang are still intent on destabilising Turnbull. Or, they are trying but not succeeding too well. 🙂

  21. I have not seen or heard Foley’s remarks, but ‘white flight’ sounds to this West Australian what the WA Libs are trying to foist upon Australia re white Sth African farmers.

  22. Left wing/progressives are way too eager to shit on their own.

    Exackerly! The Tories must love it when they can orchestrate it.

  23. I had not looked into it, only saw the outraged commentary including here on PB. I’m glad I’ve seen the context.

  24. C@t:

    The Abbottobads have turned their focus inwards, if the rotten business happening in Victoria is any indication!

  26. Turnbull has done labor a great favour. National conference will be postponed and everyone in labor will now be focused on the big picture. Beating Turnbull. Solutions for Differences in policy will be negotiated at state conferences and nothing will be passed that diverts labor from its focus.

    The stakes are high. Everyone within labor knows that.

    Cheers.

  27. Barney in Go Dau

    Oh yes indeed it was a super dumb comment . But only super dumb because of the bullshit reality of our Rupert crafted MSM. Grrrrrrrrrrr.

  31. I hate to take speaking points from the right – but sometimes it really does seem like people will just about be offended by literally anything.

  32. Axios
    10 mins ·
    JUST IN: Harvey Weinstein has surrendered to the NYPD on charges related to the sexual assault allegations that helped to launch the #MeToo movement.

  36. Turnbull threatening to shirtfront Putin?

    What makes him think that Putin will take a scrap of notice? (Silly question, it’s all for domestic consumption).

    Turnbull tells Moscow: Pay up for MH17 tragedy
    MINISTER DEMANDS PRIME Minister Malcolm Turnbull has threatened legal action against the Russian government over the deadly missile strike which downed Malaysian Airlines flight MH17.
    (DT headline)

  45. He laughs at America too:
    Putin on US administration: ‘It’s difficult to talk with people who confuse Austria and Australia’

    ‘Americans are a great people if they can endure so many people with such a low level of political culture,’ Russian president says.

  46. Barney in Go Dau @ #2075 Friday, May 25th, 2018 – 10:35 pm

    bemused @ #2074 Friday, May 25th, 2018 – 7:33 pm

    steve davis @ #2071 Friday, May 25th, 2018 – 10:27 pm

    Legal action?Putin must be laughing his bollocks off.He’s prob never heard of Turnbull.

    The UK and other countries are talking about seizing the assets of Russian oligarchs over that, the Skripols and other matters.
    That will hurt them.

    What assets do they have here?

    No idea, but they have lots elsewhere and it is not as if Australia will act alone.

  47. bemused

    It might but many of the UK oligarchs fled to the UK due to Bad Vlad’s crack down on their political bullshit in Russia from back in the Yeltsin days. Win for Bad Vlad as the only safe haven for them will be to shift their loot back to Russia. Tragic for the UK’s Bankster shonks and shysters in The City’s tax evasion industry though.

  48. poroti @ #2081 Friday, May 25th, 2018 – 7:48 pm

    bemused

    It might but many of the UK oligarchs fled to the UK due to Bad Vlad’s crack down on their political bullshit in Russia from back in the Yeltsin days. Win for Bad Vlad as the only safe haven for them will be to shift their loot back to Russia. Tragic for the UK’s Bankster shonks and shysters in The City’s tax evasion industry though.

    The Brits will get Mayfair back! 🙂

  49. bemused

    Oligarchs of every nationality flavour will have their assets tucked away in places like those favoured by our very own Goldman Sachs Prime Minister. Which means sfa probs for them

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