Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

Essential’s two-party gap narrows to its lowest point in 18 months, despite Labor’s tax and budget policies being favoured over the Coalition’s.

We have an Essential Research poll for the third week in a row, last week’s post-budget poll having been additional to the normal fortnightly cycle, rather than an adjustment. The result is the Coalition’s best from Essential since November 2016, with the Labor lead down to 51-49 from 52-48 last week, and 53-47 the week before. Primary votes will be with us when the full report is published later today. UPDATE: Full report here. The Coalition is up two to 40%, Labor is steady on 36%, the Greens are steady on 10% and One Nation are up a point to 8%.

This is despite a range of results on tax and budget matters that are uniformly favourable for Labor and/or unfavourable for the Coalition. As reported by The Guardian, the poll finds Labor’s income tax policy favoured over the Coalition’s by 45% to 33%, and 44% favouring Labor’s “increasing spending on health and education while giving a tax cut to low and middle-income earners”, over “the Coalition’s approach, which is to give both companies and workers a tax cut”. Sixty per cent said they did not want company tax cuts to proceed; 50% supported Labor’s proposed tightening of negative gearing, with 24% opposed; and 42% supported Labor’s dividend imputation policy, with 27% opposed. However, the two parties were tied at 32% on the question of best party to manage a fair tax system, with 22% saying it made no difference.

The funding cut to the ABC was supported by 35% and opposed by 45%, and 36% supported the cut to the Australian Securities and Investments Commission, with 39% opposed. Questions on a republic found 48% supportive and 30% opposed, with 65% favouring direct election of a head of state compared with just 9% for “a governor-general style appointment by the prime minister of the day”, and 12% for appointment by a two-thirds majority of a joint sitting of parliament.

Also note the post for the Western Australia’s Darling Range by-election immediately below this one.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,114 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

Comments Page 41 of 43
1 … 40 41 42 43

  1. Quentin Dempster‏Verified account @QuentinDempster · 2m2 minutes ago

    So here’s IPA’s case to destroy the ABC. @JoeHockey looked at privatising the ABC in 2014 and ruled it out. Big problem? Unlike a toll road or Medibank Private or Telstra it has no cash flow. But does vast global internet content now make ABC redundant?

  2. Barney in Go Dau @ #1984 Friday, May 25th, 2018 – 6:38 pm

    lizzie @ #1977 Friday, May 25th, 2018 – 3:23 pm

    Potattohead shifting position to stymie any moves by Labor.

    Peter Dutton says he is willing to consider a New Zealand offer to resettle some refugees held in offshore detention, but only if they are banned from ever coming to Australia.

    The home affairs minister has floated the prospect in a bid to pressure the opposition into supporting stalled legislation which would stop anybody who arrived by boat from ever reaching Australia’s shores.

    “We would have a look at ways in which we would utilise the offer of 150 places,” Dutton told Sky News on Friday.

    However, he raised the recent interception of a boat carrying 131 asylum seekers from Malaysia to New Zealand to highlight the ongoing threat of people-smuggling.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/may/25/dutton-looks-at-taking-up-new-zealand-offer-to-resettle-150-refugees?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    I can see this change as the election approaches.

    The Government will be more and more desperate to get people off Manus and Narau.

    They will want the number’s to be as low as possible so they can beat Labor with them if there is any subsequent increase.

    They did the same thing with children in detention when the HRC flagged an investigation into children.

    If Australia intercepts a boat on the high seas, particularly if it is not heading for Australia, surely that is an act of piracy and kidnapping?
    If not, why not?

  3. Vogon Poet @ #1985 Friday, May 25th, 2018 – 6:38 pm

    Michael @ #1980 Friday, May 25th, 2018 – 6:29 pm

    In 2008, the Labor Government took around 80 days to set the Gippsland By-Election. And there are other examples of other by-elections which Labor delayed for no reason. Plus what about the disgraceful mediscare campaign. Cry me a river, Labor can whinge all they like, just a bunch of total hypocrites.

    Issue writ 19 May
    Election 28 June
    You using a Hockey eleventy calculator ?
    https://www.aec.gov.au/Elections/supplementary_by_elections/2008-gippsland/

    I love your poetry!

  4. Bemused, Peter McGauran resigned on the 04/04/2008 and the Gippsland By Election was not held till 28/06/2008 where Darren Chester was elected. Labor were in no hurry and the was no reason it should have took so long. So Labor should just shut up as they have done exactly the same thing in the past.

  5. I do love the way conservatives look at Labor for moral guidance.

    Either something is wrong, or it is right, but Libs can’t figure these things out by themselves.

    So their instinct is to look at what Labor has done in similar circumstances, because they know that whatever Labor did must have been the right thing to do.

    It’s quite a compliment.

  6. Michael @ #1991 Friday, May 25th, 2018 – 3:43 pm

    Bemused, Peter McGauran resigned on the 04/04/2008 and the Gippsland By Election was not held till 28/06/2008 where Darren Chester was elected. Labor were in no hurry and the was no reason it should have took so long. So Labor should just shut up as they have done exactly the same thing in the past.

    Actually he announced his resignation on the 4th but actually resigned on the 9th. 🙂

  7. “uote

    Are there laws against altering your appearance b y means of “fashion accessories”?”

    My OH reckons Meaghan M (or is it now Mrs Windsor?) has done a fair bit of botoxing and the like. How that sort of treatment would affect facial recognition on a passport photo taken some time ago I don’t know.

  9. Retiring Nationals MP Peter McGauran says he has given his all to “a full and satisfying” political career.

    Mr McGauran is the first former Howard government minister to quit Parliament in the wake of the coalition’s federal election loss.
    Government frontbencher Anthony Albanese says Opposition Leader Brendan Nelson should use the opportunity to encourage other reluctant MPs to resign.

    “That would save the nation the extra cost of separate by-elections,” he told AAP.

    “We would argue that it’s appropriate for Brendan Nelson to show leadership and that all the by-elections take place on one day.

    “There will be substantial additional costs, on top of the $600,000 for each seat, if the by-elections are not all held on one day.”

    https://www.theage.com.au/articles/2008/04/04/1207249423162.html

  10. citizen says:
    Friday, May 25, 2018 at 5:56 pm
    “Zoidlord says:
    Friday, May 25, 2018 at 5:42 pm
    The Age
    ‏Verified account @theage
    11m11 minutes ago

    Glasses will be banned from passport photos as of July 1, under new regulations”

    Have they thought about tinted contact lenses?

    I am here to tell you that they have been banned since at least 2011, when I had my last passport photo taken. Pretty sure they were banned before that as well. I’d have to get out my old passports to be sure.

    When I was told to look at the X on the chart behind the official, I said “Can’t see that, sorry!”

  11. Vogon Poet @ #1995 Friday, May 25th, 2018 – 6:51 pm

    Retiring Nationals MP Peter McGauran says he has given his all to “a full and satisfying” political career.

    Mr McGauran is the first former Howard government minister to quit Parliament in the wake of the coalition’s federal election loss.
    Government frontbencher Anthony Albanese says Opposition Leader Brendan Nelson should use the opportunity to encourage other reluctant MPs to resign.

    “That would save the nation the extra cost of separate by-elections,” he told AAP.

    “We would argue that it’s appropriate for Brendan Nelson to show leadership and that all the by-elections take place on one day.

    “There will be substantial additional costs, on top of the $600,000 for each seat, if the by-elections are not all held on one day.”

    https://www.theage.com.au/articles/2008/04/04/1207249423162.html

    Perhaps Turnbull has a cunning plan to include a dozen or so of his members in the Super Saturday by-election?

  15. What a day. No rain. Absolutely nothing except a 5min shower this morning. The winds have kept at us all day and are forecast through the night. Terrible news for firefighters who have battled over 50 fires in the area over the last couple of days. Emergency warnings and evacuations remain in place for 4 areas last I heard. Reinforcements have come in from Perth and inland towns, but essentially the incident control has been handed over to the state govt with shires providing support.

    Some images from above the Stirling Ranges.

  20. @Barnie –

    “Tingle’s comment dismissing the Liberal’s action by trying to normalise it is a major problem with the CPG’s approach.

    Instead of calling something out as unacceptable and pushing for change it’s always, but Labor …

    Nothing will change while we maintain this attitude.

    The CPG seem to be too scared to bite the hand that feeds it despite recognising the problem!”

    This!

    For mine the delay isn’t necessarily the problem – that’s all fair, it’s the pettiness of picking the ALP conference as the date to inconvenience Labor. I’d say Truffles is still royally pissed off that he had to spend $1.5million of his own ill gotten on the last election and still Shorten came within an ace of pantsing him.

    A petty 6 carrot gold plated piss ant.

  21. uote @ #1964 Friday, May 25th, 2018 – 5:56 pm

    And it would be bliss without bemused.

    That is an equally unnecessary comment.

    You don’t have to scratch the surface too deeply around here. And in doing so you could almost get the distinct impression that certain folks on this blog are just hanging around looking for scabs to pick over so they can start a fight.

    I can guarantee you all that no-one here gives a flying fuck about your petty disagreements, the rights, the wrongs, the whys and and the wherefores concerning them, or the real or imagined insults that need – every single day, it seems – to be re-examined, re-opened and regurgitated.

    Why don’t you try engaging for a change? You’re all intelligent people, basically on the same wavelength (or at least in the same spectrum).

    And if you can’t engage, just quit it with the snarky comments.

    * Note that in the above I have not mentioned anyone by name, dredged up any particular ancienty issue or taken sides with (or against) anyone.

    Self-serving BS.

    ‘Not mentioned any names’. Yeah, right. Just allusions so thick, you could ice a cake with them.

    Plus this sanctimonious proclamation that no one, and especially the women that have been targeted by bemused, in particular, should have no right of reply to his sneering put-downs.

    Just engage, you say, in your airily condescending way that you think enables you to, with a regal wave of the hand over the blog, to tell the rest of us what we can and can’t do and can or cannot get away with saying.

    No, sorry, but you cannot arrogate that right unto yourself, ‘uote’ or ‘Bushfire Bill’ or whatever persona you have assumed today.

    For a start, I think I have every right to say that this blog would be enhanced by bemused, and his belittling comments about certain posters, being absent from it. And you don’t have the right to tell me after I have made that observation, that I should get back to my knitting, or simply ‘engage’, or whatever other euphemism you may deign to come up with in order to continue your jihad against me, because you haven’t seemed to quote anyone else’s comment about bemused’s nasty swipe at Confessions, just mine.

    Anyway, I have wasted too much of my time on you already. Please don’t expend any more of your time on me. It’s starting to look as creepy as bemused’s obsession with Confessions.

  22. The trouble with the passport thingo is attitude; when looking at a camera I am looking at a person and I smile; when looking at that dam thingo my natural tendency is to look at the machine with the contempt it deserves. I have had a lot more success since I have identified my problem. bloody thing.

  23. Don

    Thanks I’ve tried a couple of sites and I’l post various bits and bobs tomorrow morning.

    Newspaper front pages etc.

    If TinyPic comes back on line. I’ll use that, otherwise possible Postimage or one of the ones you have suggested.

    Thank you.

    Bedtime for me.

    Goodnight all. 💤💤💤

  24. Boerwar:

    Thanks. Unbelievably there are people in emergency warning areas sitting at home waiting for firies to door knock to tell them to leave. The superintendent had to issue an urgent media broadcast telling those people not to sit at home, but either get out or prepare to defend because you can’t rely on them having the resources to go house to house. What is wrong with people?!

  25. Confessions! So glad to see that you are okay. 🙂

    The photos are hellish! We have simply had Hazard Reduction Burns going on around here recently and the smell it leaves and the way it looks afterwards are saddening. I can only imagine what it must be like after a real fire!

  26. And there’s been some equally incredible amateur pics on social media. A woman at work had a fruit tree come down on her house, the part where her bedroom is. She said she was awake with the winds and could hear the tree actually come out of the ground, roots and all. She was very lucky it didn’t actually land on her!

  28. KayJay,
    Can I just tell you that none of your front pages have come through for me recently. However, a couple of the pics tonight have.

  29. C@t:

    Most of these fires are the result of hazard reduction burns that got out of control because of the very dry conditions and the high winds. Authorities told people to ensure their fires were fully extinguished by Wed evening, but obviously some weren’t.

  30. ‘Fess,
    Oh. 🙁

    It has been still as around here. Also, as soon as one of the areas seemed like it might get out of control, along came another two RFS fire engines to help out the 3 or 4 from the NPWS that were on duty to monitor things.

    It was all very sensibly done. The big power lines through the bush were being protected pre-emptively.

  32. Karen Middleton was on The Drum tonight. She came up with some interesting speculation wrt to the July 28 date for the by-elections. She said that Turnbull could easily cancel the writs for the by-elections half way through the campaign, on July 1, and issue writs for a full federal election.

    That would achieve two things.

    * He could go around the country distributing largesse before then because he wouldn’t be in Caretaker Mode until the by-election writs were cancelled.

    * Labor’s funds would take a beating by having to focus on the by-elections, rather than benefiting from the economies of scale of a full federal election, and they would be distracted while Turnbull and company plan their federal campaign, do ads etc.

  33. An unbelievable story of govt ineptitude.

    A top official with the Department of Health and Human Services told members of Congress on Thursday that the agency had lost track of nearly 1,500 migrant children it placed with sponsors in the United States, raising concerns they could end up in the hands of human traffickers or be used as laborers by people posing as relatives.

    The official, Steven Wagner, the acting assistant secretary of the agency’s Administration for Children and Families, disclosed during testimony before a Senate homeland security subcommittee that the agency had learned of the missing children after placing calls to the people who took responsibility for them when they were released from government custody.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/26/us/politics/migrant-children-missing.html

  34. * Labor’s funds would ake a beating by having to focus on the by-elections, rather than benefiting from the economies of scale of a full federal election, and they would be distracted while Turnbull and company plan their federal campaign, do ads etc.

    Why would only Labor have to focus on the by-elections if they were wrapped up in a general election campaign, and the coalition not? I see it as benefiting Labor (and the coalition) if the by-elections were simply part of a general election.

  35. C@tmomma @ #2007 Friday, May 25th, 2018 – 7:22 pm

    uote @ #1964 Friday, May 25th, 2018 – 5:56 pm

    And it would be bliss without bemused.

    That is an equally unnecessary comment.

    You don’t have to scratch the surface too deeply around here. And in doing so you could almost get the distinct impression that certain folks on this blog are just hanging around looking for scabs to pick over so they can start a fight.

    I can guarantee you all that no-one here gives a flying fuck about your petty disagreements, the rights, the wrongs, the whys and and the wherefores concerning them, or the real or imagined insults that need – every single day, it seems – to be re-examined, re-opened and regurgitated.

    Why don’t you try engaging for a change? You’re all intelligent people, basically on the same wavelength (or at least in the same spectrum).

    And if you can’t engage, just quit it with the snarky comments.

    * Note that in the above I have not mentioned anyone by name, dredged up any particular ancienty issue or taken sides with (or against) anyone.

    Self-serving BS.

    ‘Not mentioned any names’. Yeah, right. Just allusions so thick, you could ice a cake with them.

    Plus this sanctimonious proclamation that no one, and especially the women that have been targeted by bemused, in particular, should have no right of reply to his sneering put-downs.

    Just engage, you say, in your airily condescending way that you think enables you to, with a regal wave of the hand over the blog, to tell the rest of us what we can and can’t do and can or cannot get away with saying.

    No, sorry, but you cannot arrogate that right unto yourself, ‘uote’ or ‘Bushfire Bill’ or whatever persona you have assumed today.

    For a start, I think I have every right to say that this blog would be enhanced by bemused, and his belittling comments about certain posters, being absent from it. And you don’t have the right to tell me after I have made that observation, that I should get back to my knitting, or simply ‘engage’, or whatever other euphemism you may deign to come up with in order to continue your jihad against me, because you haven’t seemed to quote anyone else’s comment about bemused’s nasty swipe at Confessions, just mine.

    Anyway, I have wasted too much of my time on you already. Please don’t expend any more of your time on me. It’s starting to look as creepy as bemused’s obsession with Confessions.

    This is all passing strange when C@t purports to have me blocked.
    Maybe she just can’t help herself. 😆
    And she reckons I am obsessed??? 😆 😆 😆

  37. C@t:

    Autumn is the best time of year here for fuel reduction burns because of the seasonally dry conditions and no wind. DPAW, shires and private property owners alike use this time of year for burn offs. It’s early days yet but reports I’ve seen suggest many of the many fires in the region started because private burn offs got out of control.

  38. poroti:

    Friends were flying in from Perth last night and flew over it. They said the views from the plane were just surreal, like they were in a whole different country.

  39. Why would only Labor have to focus on the by-elections if they were wrapped up in a general election campaign, and the coalition not? I see it as benefiting Labor (and the coalition) if the by-elections were simply part of a general election.

    In the weeks BEFORE Turnbull sprung the general election on us.

    But, yes, I think Labor being on the ground in all 5 seats would ultimately be to their benefit if they played their cards right.

    I also think there’s an election in the air because the Kill Bill stuff from the Murdoch press has been going off the dial.

  49. C@tmomma @ #2027 Friday, May 25th, 2018 – 7:50 pm

    I’ve got a good Labor slogan:

    We just want to do more for YOU!

    And then there’s the ABC

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/new-ipa-book-calls-on-government-to-privatise-the-abc-by-giving-it-away-20180525-p4zhjn.html

    A new book authored by the influential Institute of Public Affairs calls on the Turnbull government to privatise the ABC by giving it away for free to the ABC’s employees or Australian citizens.

  50. The election will be held around May 2019, if all goes to plan. There has be talk of an early senate election and delaying the house election till Nov 2019 but the public will not be happy with two election campaigns so don’t think will happen. There is no way they will go early, the public hate that, and Labor will promise the world, just like Corbyn, so the longer the term goes the better.

Comments Page 41 of 43
1 … 40 41 42 43

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *