By-elections, preselections and Section 44

A round-up of the latest news on by-election and related fronts.

A little extra polling:

• The Australian on Tuesday provided an extra finding from the weekend Newspoll: that opposition to reforming Section 44 has hardened since August, when Barnaby Joyce’s difficulty first emerged. Fifty-one per cent now believe dual citizens should be disqualified from parliament, up seven, with 38% opposed, down five. Forty-six per cent opposed a referendum being held on the matter, with 43% in support.

By-election latest:

• Western Australia’s Darling Range state by-election will be held on June 23. Nathan Hondros of Fairfax reports the Liberal preselection, which will be determined by the party’s state council on Saturday, will be contested by Alyssa Hayden, who unexpectedly lost her upper house seat for East Metropolitan region to One Nation in 2017, and Rob Coales, a police sergeant and Serpentine-Jarrahdale councillor. The early mail was that Coales was favourite, but according to Hondros, it is “understood party powerbrokers are supporting Ms Hayden”.

• David Crowe of Fairfax reports the date for the Super Saturday by-elections could be pushed back to July 7, as the government looks at an Australian Electoral Commission recommendation to implement an online tool for candidates to lodge declarations and supporting documentation, so as to avoid further issues arising from Section 44. This had caused initial plans for a date of June 16 to be scotched, although concerns linger about the electoral impact of an eight-week campaign.

• Speaking of, Michael McKenna of The Australian reports the Liberal National Party preselection for Longman is being held off until next Tuesday to ensure frontrunner Trevor Ruthenberg was able to clear up his own Section 44 issue, arising from his being born in Papua New Guinea.

• Georgia Downer has emerged unopposed for Liberal preselection in Mayo. The Australian reports “ambitious conservative” Michael van Dissel was another potential nominee, but withdrew as it became clear the Right was solid behind Downer. In contrast to the Liberals in WA, Labor will be contested Mayo, despite never having held hte saet before. A Labor source quoted by Philip Coorey said the party believed its preferences could assist Rebekha Sharkie, and that failing to run would suppress the party’s Senate vote at the next election.

• Braddon will again be contested for the Liberals by Brett Whiteley, who held the seat from 2013 until his defeat by Labor’s Justine Keay in 2016, and served in the state seat of Braddon from 2002 until his defeat in 2010. The Burnie Advocate reports former McDonald’s licensee Craig Brakey and Wynyard RSL president Gavin Pearce also contested the state executive vote, but Whiteley was chosen unanimously.

• The Western Australian Liberals’ decision to forfeit the Perth by-election, said to have been instigated by Matthias Cormann, has been widely criticised in the party. Following Tim Hammond’s resignation announcement on May 1, Christian Porter told Sky News Australia the party would “undoubtedly” run, and state Opposition Leader Mike Nahan, who had mocked Labor’s unsurprising decision not to field a candidate in the recent by-election for Colin Barnett’s old seat of Cottesloe, said the by-election was “one we need to contest”.

• The Western Australian Greens have announced their by-elections candidates: Caroline Perks, senior sustainability officer at the City of Perth, in Perth; and Dorinda Cox, domestic violence campaigner and former police officer, in Fremantle.

Other preselection news:

• Jane Prentice’s preselection defeat in her Brisbane seat of Ryan has roused controversy over the lack of gender balance in the Coalition. The winner was Julian Simmonds, a Brisbane councillor who once worked on Prentice’s staff when she herself was on council. Simmons, who is identified with the Right, won a local party ballot by 256 votes to 103 over Prentice, a moderate and early backer of Malcolm Turnbull. Charlie Peel of The Australian reports the vote was “roughly split along traditional party lines, with Nationals backing Ms Prentice”. Critics of the decision include Campbell Newman, Leichhardt MP Warren Entsch and Capricornia MP Michelle Landry.

• Jared Owens of The Australian reports Ian Macdonald and Barry O’Sullivan, who respectively hold Queensland Senate seats for the Liberals and the Nationals, face preselection challenges from Scott Emerson, the former state Shadow Treasurer who lost his seat of Maiwar to the Greens last November, and Susan McDonald, managing director of a chain of butcher’s shops and a member of “one of Queensland’s grazing families”.

• Michael Owen of The Australian reports on a “strong challenge” for Liberal Senate preselection in South Australia from Alex Antic, an Adelaide councillor. This apparently poses a threat to another female Liberal MP, Anne Ruston, who might otherwise be expected to lead the ticket, but not to the mooted number two candidate, David Fawcett. It might also endanger Lucy Gichuhi’s hold on number three, long shot proposition though that may be.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,071 comments on “By-elections, preselections and Section 44”

Comments Page 16 of 22
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  1. Victoria @ #746 Saturday, May 19th, 2018 – 11:53 am

    And everytime I hear how great Finland Norway Denmark and Sweden are, I get annoyed. Cos all their combined population is barely that of Australia.
    It doesn’t come close to running a place the size and population of the USA

    Interestingly, Texas has a similar population count, and I think economy size to Australia. Its is also a pretty big place geographically. There may be more comparisons to make.

  8. Confessions @ #742 Saturday, May 19th, 2018 – 11:50 am

    Surprise, surprise!

    Maggie HabermanVerified account@maggieNYT
    39m39 minutes ago
    “Senior law enforcement officials have also privately expressed concern that the Republicans are digging into F.B.I. files for information they can weaponize against the Russia inquiry.”

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/18/us/politics/trump-fbi-informant-russia-investigation.html

    But surely Congressmen have no authority to just go digging around in FBI files?

  15. C@tmomma @ #653 Saturday, May 19th, 2018 – 8:14 am

    Interesting to hear Putin say, now that Sergei Skripal has been released from hospital in the UK after being poisoned with Novochok, well, IF he had been poisoned with Novochok he would be dead now. Which I see as a tactical mistake on Putin’s part. It shows to the world that he, Putin, and Russia, know all about Novochok. Also it intimates that they wanted to kill Skripol.

    He would have been better off going with the plausible deniability line…’Who, us!?!’

    That is just illogical.

  18. There are snakes, snakes, snakes
    Big as garden rakes,
    At the store! At the store!
    There are snakes, snakes, snakes,
    Big as garden rakes, at the Quartermaster’s store.

    Chorus
    My eyes are dim I can-not see.
    I have not got my specs with me.
    I have HEY! Not HO! got my specs with me.

    I read the caption as Charles Says: Dildo.

    Specsavers for me. Real soon now.

  22. rhwombat (Block)
    Saturday, May 19th, 2018 – 12:55 pm
    Comment #770

    Dammit, Monsieur Le rhwombat – I had forgotten.

    I had no idea, until this morning, that the Royal Nuptials were taking place tonight.

    I guess nobody will notice if I just quietly read and ponder the reasons that our great nation (thanks Wayne) is not a republic. 😵

  23. Fess

    Yep.
    Hence why they are attempting to get Trump and his family on state crimes.
    These crimes can’t be pardoned and as soon as Trump is no longer president he can be indicted on fed crimes. He obviously knows this. Hence why he hasnt resigned as yet.
    He is waiting for a deal that suits him. Meanwhile Mueller and co I believe have a strategy in place.

  24. Reporter: “What went through your head when you heard about the school shooting?”
    Redneck Asshole: “Get to the school. Make America great again.”

  25. Oh wow. 😆 😆 😆 Karma is going to bite

    The citizenship crisis could claim more government MPs after Attorney-General Christian Porter said they had to prove their possible dual citizenships were renounced.

    Labor says this puts Treasurer Scott Morrison, Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack, and 12 other Coalition MPs in danger.

    The citizenship crisis could claim more government MPs after Attorney-General Christian Porter said they had to prove their possible dual citizenships were renounced.

    Labor says this puts Treasurer Scott Morrison, Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack, and 12 other Coalition MPs in danger.

    https://www.sbs.com.au/news/more-mps-in-firing-line-as-citizenship-crisis-escalates

  26. Fess

    Also possible that if in fact the GOP are being investigated, perhaps the remaining uncorrupted ones, do a bi partisan strategy with the Dems to be rid of Trump.
    Still a lot to be disclosed.
    I am still confident, it will all work out

  27. Vic:

    I wish I shared your confidence re Mueller. I can just see Trump doing all he can to remain president for life (or 4 terms as per his comments on FDR).

  28. A reminder regarding Mueller and his investigation that a lawyer I think previously an AG said on Maddow last night.

    Mueller’s investigation is a submarine. We only see anything when it surfaces.

  29. guytaur @ #775 Saturday, May 19th, 2018 – 1:06 pm

    Oh wow. 😆 😆 😆 Karma is going to bite

    The citizenship crisis could claim more government MPs after Attorney-General Christian Porter said they had to prove their possible dual citizenships were renounced.

    Labor says this puts Treasurer Scott Morrison, Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack, and 12 other Coalition MPs in danger.

    The citizenship crisis could claim more government MPs after Attorney-General Christian Porter said they had to prove their possible dual citizenships were renounced.

    Labor says this puts Treasurer Scott Morrison, Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack, and 12 other Coalition MPs in danger.

    https://www.sbs.com.au/news/more-mps-in-firing-line-as-citizenship-crisis-escalates

    By all accounts Porter did have such a promising career in front of him!

  32. steve davis says:
    Saturday, May 19, 2018 at 1:17 pm
    I would love to see Scomo as a dual citizen.It would be the icing on the cake of Liberal hypocrisy.

    Is he a dual citizen of The Shire and of Australia?

    Seriously, where does he come from and who let him into the country?

  35. Victoria

    Trump shares your confidence. Thats why their strategy is political. Its about fighting the political impeachment fight.

    Thus all the attacks on the credibility of the investigation.

  36. Morrison was born in Waverley, Sydney, New South Wales, the younger of two sons born to Marion (née Smith) and John Morrison. His father was a policeman who served on the Waverley Municipal Council for 16 years, including for a brief period as mayor.Morrison’s maternal grandfather was born in New Zealand.

  43. Victoria says: Saturday, May 19, 2018 at 1:32 pm

    Guytaur

    I have always preferred Trump to resign. Impeachment not so much.

    **********************************************************

    I am with you on this Victoria – any ‘forced’ removal will be US Civil War Part 2

    Would be just nice if the Mueller team presented him with a list of what they have and consequences – and let him retire on doctors medical recommendation – but I guess IF they have uncovered serious or financial crimes then they have a duty to prosecute those involved …..

  45. It’s too late to take guns away from Americans. The opportunity passed probably mid last century, or even earlier.

    Guns are ingrained in the American culture and, more critically, in the American myth: the image it has of itself.

    It’s virtually impossible to see an American TV series, or an American movie without seeing someone either shot to death outright, or threatened with it. Very rarely do you ever see the aftermath in these productions, except to hear distant sirens added as a sound effect.

    Money in politics is substantially linked with the NRA in particular, or defence procurement, with the aim being to gain Congressional imprimatur for better and more efficient methods of killing.

    If guns were banned tomorrow, America would still be awash with them, too many to significantly reduce gun death statistics.

    Which is why I couldn’t care less about school massacres. Americans have chosen their path, and corrupted their officials and politicians, including the political system itself.

    Until Americans learn that solving problems by violence (often deadly violence, including the death penalty) doesn’t really solve problems at all, they are a lost cause, and I for one am not about to waste any of my emotional energy worrying about them or their obsessions.

  48. So a couple of privileged old white Australian men do not give a hoot about human life, simply because those murdered are Americans!?!

    I guess when you are divorced from reality on the Mid North Coast of NSW and in the Adelaide Hills, your perception becomes distorted.

    Sorry, but I cannot agree that any American murdered due to their insane gun culture has it coming to them because of it.

  49. “It’s too late to take guns away from Americans. The opportunity passed probably mid last century, or even earlier.”

    Agreed BB, but…….they have the capacity to START to change things by passing laws that restrict access to firearms and ammunition. Wil; take a long long time for that to translate to actual on the ground changes if it ever does. But its no excuse for not trying.

    And, with the movement for gun control from younger almost about to be voters, i hope there will be a raw political imperative there to drive that.

  50. Bemused, your comment about the Margaret River murderer is absolutely sickening. Blame the victims, anything to absolve toxic masculinity. The comments of the daughters estranged husband are equally as sickening.

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