Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Labor maintains its existing lead in the latest Essential poll, despite improving perceptions on the outlook for the economy.

With Newspoll holding its fire ahead of tonight’s budget, the one new federal poll for the week is the regular fortnightly result from Essential Research – which, The Guardian reports, has maintained its recent form in recording Labor’s lead unchanged at 53-47. Primary votes to follow with the publication of the full report later today. The poll also features Essential’s monthly leadership ratings, which have Malcolm Turnbull on 40% approval (up one) and 42% disapproval (steady), Bill Shorten on 37% approval (up two) and 41% disapproval (down two), and Turnbull leading 40-26 as preferred prime minister, little changed from 41-26 last time.

As related in The Guardian’s report, other questions relate to what respondents would like in the budget, of which the most interesting findings would seem to be an 11% increase for “assistance for the unemployed” compared with last year, along with 8% increases for age pensions, affordable housing and assistance for the needy. The most favoured categories overall are health care, age pensions, education and affordable housing; the least favoured are foreign aid, business assistance and the military. Eighteen per cent expect the budget to be good for them personally (up eight on last year) compared with 24% for bad (down six), and 39% now rate the economy good (up six since November) compared with 24% for bad.

Note also the post below this one on the looming Western Australian state by-election in Darling Range.

UPDATE: Full results from Essential Research here. Both major parties are up a point on the primary vote, the Coalition to 38% and Labor to 37%, with the Greens down one to 10% and One Nation down two to 6%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,901 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 2 of 39
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  1. An interesting analysis – whither the French/Australian submarines?
    As Marine Major General James L. Jones went on record in 1991, after the First Gulf War, “All it takes to panic a battlegroup is seeing somebody dropping a couple of 50-gallon drums into the water.” The Kinzhal effectively removes any non-suicidal surface force thousands of miles away from Russia’s shores and renders its capabilities irrelevant. In layman’s lingo that means only one thing—the US Navy’s whole surface component becomes a complete hollow force good only for parades and flag demonstration near and in the littorals of weak and underdeveloped nations. This can be done for a tiny fraction of the astronomical costs of US platforms and weapons.
    http://www.unz.com/article/the-implications-of-russias-new-weapons/

  3. Rossmcg. says:

    Surely extending the application of something called the “low income tax offset”to those earning $100k pa is some kind of joke?

    I think it is very revealing of how out of touch they are with the real world .Cut off in their bubble of unreality where 80-90-100k pa is “low income’.

  5. According to Alan Kohler in the OZ the average tax to GDP is 22.1% under LNP governments and under Labor governments it is 20.6%
    Probably Boerwar or Bemused can explsin why OZ people consider LNP as better economic managers especially after LNP said that a high taxing government is a bad government. Now LNP has thrown out “debt and deficit disaster” and “budget emergency” mantra.
    What is this tax revenue should not exceed 23.9 % of GDP?
    Yesterday in Q&A Tim Wilson(ex IPA hack & current LNP MP) says lower income people are hurting and hence they should get tax cuts. Did he suddenly realise that lower income people are “hurting”.
    As Mike Carlton said a gew times Australian voters vote against their well being or something to that affect. I at least can understand that if it is in National Interest on the whole.
    Did you notice that infighting of LNP gobernment is worse than compared to ALP govrrnment infighting and their incompetance is constantly on display. But voters dtill forgive them?

  6. Barney IDG

    And I should add that if this behaviour actually occurred when it did, it is very bad. I am just very suspicious with timing.
    These allegations appear to be politically timed and that is very bad too. It basically tells me that whilst this conduct was very disgusting, we will use it when it is politically beneficial for parties not at all victims of the actual violence. Not good at all

  7. Victoria @ #56 Tuesday, May 8th, 2018 – 7:15 am

    Barney IDG

    And I should add that if this behaviour actually occurred when it did, it is very bad. I am just very suspicious with timing.
    These allegations appear to be politically timed and that is very bad too. It basically tells me that whilst this conduct was very disgusting, we will use it when it is politically beneficial for parties not at all victims of the actual violence. Not good at all

    Not everything is political.

    One of the main elements of “me too” is that women have found they have a voice where they believed before that they did not.

  8. “Probably Boerwar or Bemused can explsin why OZ people consider LNP as better economic managers ”

    Its an expression of the Oz people having an attack of the stupids. And our medias addiction to the kool aid.

  9. Ven @ #55 Tuesday, May 8th, 2018 – 10:14 am

    Probably Boerwar or Bemused can explsin why OZ people consider LNP as better economic managers especially after LNP said that a high taxing government is a bad government.

    Because they’re better at making angry propaganda, playing to people’s fears, and using economic technobabble to talk over inconvenient facts .

    Labor (and anyone else) can cite facts until they’re blue in the face. It doesn’t matter because “listen to what the facts say” isn’t the game the other side is playing. The other side is playing “say things to get votes”. It’s a simple game where whomever is loudest, angriest, and most condescending wins and facts and nuance are both handicaps.

  10. Victoria says: Tuesday, May 8, 2018 at 10:15 am

    Barney IDG

    And I should add that if this behaviour actually occurred when it did, it is very bad. I am just very suspicious with timing.

    **********************************************

    Is Michael Avenatti next ?????

  11. Good Morning

    AR

    When the leader of GetUP! and Boris Johnson’s father agree on the fear over facts new power is being run in social media you know its a real problem.

    BW could be PB’s first new power fear monger over facts.

    The way he goes on about the Greens certainly is an indicator of this strategy.

    BW has wasted his talents though. He could have been selling his skillset to Murdoch in his mission to destroy the Greens.

  12. Poroti

    Apparently the “low income tax offset” is to be renamed the “low and middle income tax offset”.

    So there you go, everything is all right now.

    And raising the 32.5c in the dollar tax threshold from $87k to $90k will be worth $2.60 a week.

    There will be dancing in the streets.

    Still I guess that people who reckon $40a day for Newstart is ok will think an extra $2.60 is a life changer

  13. Michael Coker at Smashwords explains why it’s going to get tougher and tougher to be a novelist:

    2. The glut of high-quality low-cost ebooks will get worse – In the old days of print publishing, the number of books in circulation was artificially constrained by the production output of traditional publishers, and by the shelf space available at brick and mortar retailers. Since ebook retailer shelf space is virtually unlimited, ebooks need never go out of print. This means that every day from this day forward, there will be more books occupying virtual shelves and competing for a readership whose attention is increasingly fragmented across multiple media forms.

  18. ‘guytaur says:
    Tuesday, May 8, 2018 at 10:31 am

    Good Morning

    AR

    When the leader of GetUP! and Boris Johnson’s father agree on the fear over facts new power is being run in social media you know its a real problem.

    BW could be PB’s first new power fear monger over facts.

    The way he goes on about the Greens certainly is an indicator of this strategy.

    BW has wasted his talents though. He could have been selling his skillset to Murdoch in his mission to destroy the Greens.’

    Yeet another fact-free bashing post. The FACT is that the Greens with their uncosted trillions of economic wanker policies have embarrassed themselves. Rather than do some costings and put some money facts on the table, the Greens bash people.

  19. BW

    Thank you for proving my point. Maybe you should watch last night’s QandA to get an idea of what I was talking about.

    I note you had no problem with the other posts.

  20. There is only one party with any economic credibility at all ATM: Labor. The Liberals have doubled the debt and shovelled money from those who need it most to those who need it least.

    Their Fudget is reamed with dodgy brother accountancy smoke and mirrors.

    The Greens pop another uncosted and unfunded trillion onto the Never Never every time Di Natale opens his gob to try and distract voters from the inner chaos that is the Greens leitmotiv these days.

    It is only Labor that has fully costed and fully funded policies. It is only Labor that will deliver real social justice. It is only Labor that will look after workers.

  21. g

    Fact free people bashing is the Greens’s sport these days.

    Talking about missing facts, what is your take on how much the Greens are going to pay for their UBI?

  22. BW

    Still proving my point I see.

    The Greens talking trials puts the lie to your posts.

    Thats what trials are for to find out facts.

    Of course to you thats just another reason to bash the Greens. Lumping me in with them just because I see some merit in an idea.

    I remind you I am voting Labor not Greens this election. What are you going to do vote informal again?

  24. g

    Still people bashing I see.

    So, two facts, please.
    How much capital is Di Natale going to pump into his VolkSturrmBank?
    And, more to the point, where is it going to come from.

  25. One of the many measures included in the Budget Savings (Omnibus) Bill 2016 passed in September 2016 could result in increased administration costs for some small businesses. The measure is called “Single Touch Payroll reporting” that will force every employer in Australia to use an electronic payroll system.

    https://www.smh.com.au/business/small-business/budget-savings-result-in-increased-admin-costs-20180507-p4zdub.html

    This article is complete rubbish. If you’ve got employees and and you’re using a manual bookkeeping system then you’re working far too hard. Any “benefit” is false economy compared to the efficiencies of electronic bookkeeping.

  28. ‘Ven says:
    Tuesday, May 8, 2018 at 10:14 am

    According to Alan Kohler in the OZ the average tax to GDP is 22.1% under LNP governments and under Labor governments it is 20.6%
    Probably Boerwar or Bemused can explsin why OZ people consider LNP as better economic managers especially after LNP said that a high taxing government is a bad government. Now LNP has thrown out “debt and deficit disaster” and “budget emergency” mantra.
    What is this tax revenue should not exceed 23.9 % of GDP?’

    My explanation is that Aussies get sucked in by economic charlatan parties like the Liberals, Nationals and Greens.

  29. BW

    Nope not people bashing. Just pointing out your untethered connection to the truth when it comes to talking about the Greens.

    The fact you think thats people bashing says a lot about posts you have directed at me in the past.

  30. BiDG
    If you REALLY want to sound like P1 start wailing and weeping and gnashing your teeth about how we will all be extinct within decades.

  34. Leroy says:
    Tuesday, May 8, 2018 at 10:40 am
    Full Essential poll here. Note the leader attributes, budget, and economy questions.

    TPP: ALP 53 (0) L/NP 47 (0)
    Primary: L/NP 38(+1) ALP 37(+1) GRN 10(-1) NXT 2(0) ON 6(-2) OTH 6(0)

    The ON vote is decaying. On this number, they will struggle to elect any Senators next time round.

  36. guytaur says: Tuesday, May 8, 2018 at 10:52 am

    Reuters tweets

    JUST IN: New York Governor Cuomo calls for Attorney General Schneiderman to resign after report citing accusations of physical abuse against women

    *****************************************************

    Maybe he is entitled to some ‘investigation’ first ????? – and if true then resignation/sack

  39. It’s coming on 10 years since Q&A first came to us amid the high excitement of a federal budget, and it’s difficult now to imagine how bad things were in those terrible days of 2008. Back then, no one knew when we might see another budget surplus. No one knew whether we might ever have a functioning NBN. And certainly no one knew the millennials were going to emerge as the constant bother they have become, with expectations of living out their lives in something superior to a two-man tent, among their other outrageous demands.
    Fortunately, 10 years and 78 federal governments later, everything has … well, let’s get on with the show.

    https://www.theage.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/q-and-a-recap-don-t-look-back-in-anger-we-heard-them-say-20180508-p4zdxs.html

    Edit: Warning has a reference to a cat death

  40. phoenixRed

    I understand due process. But if Schneidermann did conduct himself in this way, he should do himself and everyone else including the victims, a favour, and resign.

  42. The schneidermann thing is interesting.

    Maddow said in a segment last week that you can count on the Republicans going after those who have the power to bring charges in order to quash them.

    Mobster tactics. If someone uncovers trouble … don’t stop the trouble, stop those who are exposing it.

  43. Victoria says: Tuesday, May 8, 2018 at 11:04 am

    phoenixRed

    I understand due process. But if Schneidermann did conduct himself in this way, he should do himself and everyone else including the victims, a favour, and resign.

    *************************************************

    Agreed , if the accusations are true and he knows it , he should do the right thing and resign – just don’t want anyone – including Trump – to be ‘railroaded’ without a chance to answer the accusations ..

  44. a r

    Of course if Schneiderman does believe he is innocent, he is entitled to due process like everyone else.

    I am in no doubt that the timing of this is politically motivitated.

  47. Minor parties with prominent leaders generally find their vote falls when the leader is not up for re-election. With that in mind, I’m not expecting PHON to win any senators next election, but PH will hold her seat at the election after.

  48. Inside City Hall @InsideCityHall

    Mayor de Blasio says he does not think it’s appropriate to comment on the bombshell Eric Shneiderman story in @NewYorker.

  49. booleanbach
    It is an interesting analysis.
    Its weakness appears to me to be the EW component is totally ignored.

  50. Ante Meridian

    Malcolm Roberts is the lead PHON senate candidate for QLD. He may have enough of a profile + it being QLD for him to win a seat.

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