BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor

In the week of the magic number thirty Newspoll, some polling-related consolation for Malcolm Turnbull.

After Malcolm Turnbull’s worst week for polling news since the election, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate finds Labor’s lead at its narrowest in some time. The three results out this week included a Newspoll that had the Coalition ahead of Labor on the primary vote, something they have only managed a handful of times in the past year; a high-end-of-average result from Ipsos that included a 50-50 respondent-allocated two-party result, indicating a strong flow of preferences to the Coalition, which factors into the BludgerTrack preference model; and a par for the course result from Essential Research. Equally importantly, these new results displace a particularly bad data point from the Coalition from ReachTEL on March 28.

On the seat projection, the Coalition is up one each in New South Wales and Victoria, and two in Western Australia. While Western Australia continues to record the largest swing, BludgerTrack’s recent double-digit blowout appears to have been a burst of statistical noise. A precis of the results can be seen on the sidebar, but the real deal is the link through the image below:

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,351 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.0-48.0 to Labor”

Comments Page 43 of 48
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  1. This distortion of the truth is reaching peak absurdity.

    Greg Jericho‏Verified account @GrogsGamut · 2h2 hours ago

    O’Dwyer today: “We are cleaning up the system that Bill Shorten ignored”

    O’Dwyer August 2016: “For the Labor Party to propose a royal commission into banks is reckless and ill-conceived.”

  2. Is Rudy Giuliani negotiating Donald Trump’s resignation? – Bill Palmer

    Now that the dust is settling a bit, the part that stands out is Giuliani’s surreal claim that he’s going to be able to “negotiate an end” to the Robert Mueller investigation and that he’s going to be able to make it happen within “maybe a couple of weeks.”

    The only other possible way out for Trump would be if he’s talking about negotiating his way out of office, by offering to resign in exchange for some degree of criminal leniency.

    Giuliani may have jumped in after he saw that the Michael Cohen raid was going to destroy them all, and convinced Trump of the same. Keep a close eye on what Giuliani says and does next, because there’s more to this.

  3. lizzie @ #2099 Friday, April 20th, 2018 – 11:45 am

    Katharine Murphy‏Verified account @murpharoo · 1h1 hour ago

    The treasurer has had a very scrappy week. Elevated a silly Santa comment into a full blown media circus by stamping his foot rather than laughing if off. Now a solid dose of tin ear on the banking royal commission #auspol

    This is because Morrison is the right size and shape to pay the political price for the economic bad news and the Banking RC outcomes.

  6. Anthony Albanese‏Verified account @AlboMP · 34m34 minutes ago

    “This is a Government that ran a protection racket for the banks and finance sector. They voted against the Royal Commission on more than 20 occasions.” #roadtodamascus

  10. Barney in Go Dau @ #2106 Friday, April 20th, 2018 – 12:04 pm

    lizzie @ #2102 Friday, April 20th, 2018 – 8:57 am

    GG

    But will Truffles cast Morrison off?

    It all depends on if he is a threat to his leadership, so no.

    He doesn’t seem to be a challenger but he seems to control a number of votes. 🙂

    Turnbull is going to need a circuit breaker very soon.

    Sack Scomo, put in a bright young turk to take over economic policy, announce the government has reset themselves and plow on.

    IF Scomo can be blamed as the drag on the Government, his alleged popularity in the party won’t save him.

  14. Phoenix Red

    So my idea that Guiliani is playing horse whisperer has legs!
    Meanwhile the Comey memos have been leaked to the media

  18. Soc, and anyone else interested,

    I can second Dave’s recommendation for ME Bank – owned by industry super funds.

    We’ve been using them for about 4 years, with a mix of current accounts and savings options. Had one problem early on to do with (now abolished) first home saver account, but I got on the blower and it was sorted in about 10 minutes.

    A long time ago I had an account via my Mum with QTCU… ahh, the notalgia of a visit to Greenslopes Mall.

  19. Victoria says: Friday, April 20, 2018 at 12:13 pm

    Phoenix Red

    So my idea that Guiliani is playing horse whisperer has legs!

    ******************************************************

    Now – if only you were running the investigations !!!!! ……. Trump & Family & Guiliani would already be in the slammer 🙂

  20. Sarah Hanson-Young ‏Verified account @sarahinthesen8 · 34m34 minutes ago

    This morning Minister Littleproud criticised Susan Ley of being ‘emotional’ in her response to live exports. Bet he wouldn’t have said that if she was a Liberal man. Nonetheless, this is emotional; ppl are horrified & angry at the treatment of these animals & so we should be!

  22. GG

    Lol! Trump is a parody.

    Meanwhile, Turns out that the GOP leaked Comey memos to media and Comey had a scheduled appearance on Rachel Maddow. She was able to talk to him about it.
    As far as reality shows goes, this one is a doozy!

  25. Michael Cohen Drops Libel Suits Against BuzzFeed, Fusion GPS

    Michael Cohen, President Trump’s personal lawyer who has been in the middle of a legal battle this week over documents seized by the FBI, has dropped the two libel suits he filed against BuzzFeed and Fusion GPS. The suits centered around the now-notorious Steele dossier, which detailed Trump’s alleged connections with Russia, an infamous “pee tape”—footage that allegedly shows Trump watching Russian prostitutes urinate on a bed President Obama slept in at a Moscow hotel room—and an alleged Cohen meeting with Russian operatives in Prague in the summer of 2016, which he has denied. “The decision to voluntarily discontinue these cases was a difficult one,” Cohen’s attorney, David Schwartz, told Politico. “We believe the defendants defamed my client, and vindicating Mr. Cohen’s rights was—and still remains—important. But given the events that have unfolded, and the time, attention, and resources needed to prosecute these matters, we have dismissed the matters, despite their merits.”

    https://www.politico.com/story/2018/04/19/michael-cohen-drops-buzzfeed-fusion-lawsuit-537327?via=newsletter&source=CSAMedition

  26. Victoria says: Friday, April 20, 2018 at 12:27 pm

    Meanwhile, Turns out that the GOP leaked Comey memos to media

    **************************************************************

    Tea Pain‏ @TeaPainUSA

    The GOP, who tries to brand Comey as a “leaker”, leaked his memos in less than 40 minutes.

  28. May I also explode the Trump defense wrt the most censorious aspect of the Steele Dossier wherein he claims that he wouldn’t have engaged in watching Russian prostitutes pee on a bed that the Obamas had slept in, ‘because he is a germaphobe’.

    Urine is sterile. It contains no bacteria UNLESS you have a Urinary Tract Infection.

  29. Interesting tidbit

    Ari Melber
    Ari Melber
    @AriMelber
    ·
    43m
    Comey to @maddow: We did start investigating whether Giuliani really knew in advance and if there were FBI leaks for politics, I was fired before learning the result.

    We have separate reporting that there was a heightened effort re those internal leaks

  30. C@t

    According to those I follow, it is not a pee pee tape but something more disgraceful and damaging.
    Starts with a P but not per pee

  36. Victoria @ #2131 Friday, April 20th, 2018 – 12:38 pm

    adrian

    If Kelly Odwyer was a Labor MP would have been a different story

    Yeah, the Liberal Party would have pushed it into the hands of every media organisation in the country and made sure they ran with it. Especially the ABC! They would have leaned on them and complained if they didn’t run with the hypocrisy of the previous position with the current one.

  37. C@tmomma @ #2136 Friday, April 20th, 2018 – 12:42 pm

    Victoria @ #2131 Friday, April 20th, 2018 – 12:38 pm

    adrian

    If Kelly Odwyer was a Labor MP would have been a different story

    Yeah, the Liberal Party would have pushed it into the hands of every media organisation in the country and made sure they ran with it. Especially the ABC! They would have leaned on them and complained if they didn’t run with the hypocrisy of the previous position with the current one.

    Yes and yes.

    And we do not fund the ABC from our taxes to be a government mouthpiece.

  39. Jail should be the first solution to illegal baking activities

    So are we back on to bakers refusing to make cakes for SSM weddings

    Sorry I couldn’t resist.

  41. For those who think ScotMo will somehow quit or be sacked just a few weeks out from the Budget, doesn’t make any sense. Truffles has this joker in his pack and he just has to play him – come what may at this point in time. One thing seems certain, the longer Morrison is Treasurer, the worse he gets to look and it is no surprise that he has not much support as Leader Waiting in the Wings………..I guess even the Liberals recognise a shouty, blowhard would hardly make much a party leader.

  42. “What chance have the Libs getting their $65 bill tax cut for the big end of town through?”

    GG…..all of their statements so far are committed to those tax cuts in the Budget.

    They must be coming to a realisation that it aint goin to fly…but how do they back out??

    Maybe…..if they do enough grovelling they could use the revelations out of the Bank RC to give them cover for that?? Take a short term hit on what is laughingly referred to as their credibility and “postpone” their big business tax cut program?? I can conceive of how that may be possible if they are smart about it. Their trajectory at the moment has to be worrying their party room and they have to be looking for some kind of circuit breaker particularly in as much as the ALP has set up a situation where their reply to the Budget is set to blow the Libs out of the water.

    Battleship vs small Barbed Wire Canoe territory i reckon.

    Then again….Liberal and Smart probably dont belong in the same sentence?? 🙂

  45. Out of parliamentary sittings NewsPoll is typically every 3 weeks, but if for example the break is 4 weeks they will probably hold it over.

    Also they wouldn’t normally poll over holiday weekends like Easter

  46. It was interesting to listen to an interview this morning between Joe O’Brien and the whistleblower whose evidence precipitated the Banking RC say that it was actually Matthias Cormann who was the biggest roadblock in the way of the government agreeing to investigate his complaints.

  48. Vote 1 Iceland

    This Is Where Bad Bankers Go to Prison
    March 31, 2016, 12:01 PM GMT+8

    Iceland is the only nation that put top finance executives behind bars after the 2008 crisis. Still, fears of crony capitalism remain

    Kviabryggja Prison in western Iceland doesn’t need walls, razor wire, or guard towers to keep the convicts inside. Alone on a wind-swept cape, the old farmhouse is bound by the frigid North Atlantic on one side and fields of snow-covered lava rock on another. To the east looms Snaefellsjokull, a dormant volcano blanketed by a glacier. There’s only one road back to civilization.

    This is where the world’s only bank chiefs imprisoned in connection with the 2008 financial crisis are serving their sentences. Kviabryggja is home to Sigurdur Einarsson, Kaupthing Bank’s onetime chairman, Hreidar Mar Sigurdsson, the bank’s former chief executive officer,………………………… .
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2016-03-31/welcome-to-iceland-where-bad-bankers-go-to-prison

  49. C@tmomma @ #2146 Friday, April 20th, 2018 – 12:57 pm

    It was interesting to listen to an interview this morning between Joe O’Brien and the whistleblower whose evidence precipitated the Banking RC say that it was actually Matthias Cormann who was the biggest roadblock in the way of the government agreeing to investigate his complaints.

    Good piece, terrifying actually, on reporting, whistleblowing, and surveillance here C@t:

    https://johnmenadue.com/john-stapleton-abbott-and-turnbulls-assault-on-freedom-of-speech/

  50. Arrived home a short while ago. The car radio had shock jocks Smith and Bolt slamming the banks and the government. Bolt also mentioned Sally McManus, admitting that her messages would resonate with the voters in the current environment.

    Of course, to keep their show fair and balanced, Smith said they would later be discussing “welfare cheats”!

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