BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor

Newspoll’s quarterly state breakdowns provide new grist for the BludgerTrack mill, highlighted by strong numbers for Labor in South Australia despite their unhappy state election result.

The Australian today brings us Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns by state, gender and metropolitan/regional, which provides a welcome deepening of BludgerTrack’s data pool for the states. In particular, the addition of the Newspoll takes the edge off the double-digit swing to Labor that BludgerTrack has been recording of late in Western Australia, bringing it down to 8.4% (Newspoll has it at 6.7%).

Newspoll comes within about 1% of the existing readings of BludgerTrack in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland, but has Labor leading 54-46 in South Australia, where BludgerTrack formerly had it at 51.4-48.6. On the seat projections, BludgerTrack now has Labor one higher in Victoria and two higher in Queensland than before the Newspoll numbers were added, but two lower than their implausibly strong result from Western Australia.

It should be observed that the Newspoll data is not new, having been aggregated from the results of the last four Newspolls. As such, the BludgerTrack national voting intention numbers are exactly as they were following last week’s update, with only the state breakdowns changing.

The full results from Newspoll can be viewed here. The biggest changes since the last quarter are a four point gain for the Coalition in Queensland, on both primary and two-party, although the primary gain is more at the expense of One Nation (down two) than Labor (down one); and a six-point drop for “others” in South Australia, presumably reflecting the decline of the Nick Xenophon Team, which yields a four-point gain for Labor and one-point gains for the Liberals and the Greens, with Labor up a point on two-party.

Other breakdowns record a three-point increase in the Coalition primary vote among those aged 50 and over, although this comes more at the expense of One Nation than Labor; a three-point gain for Labor among the 35-49s, with the Coalition also up a point, the Greens and One Nation down one, and “others” down two; and nothing of consequence in the gender breakdowns.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,815 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.2-46.8 to Labor”

Comments Page 2 of 57
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  1. Boerwar says:
    Monday, April 2, 2018 at 8:40 am

    g
    Your total indifference to the fate of our main ME ally is noted.
    _____________________

    Total indifference or hand wringing by bludgers will have the same effect as thoughts and prayers – SFA.

  6. guytaur @ #33 Monday, April 2nd, 2018 – 8:29 am

    BW

    You mean a continuation of the betrayal of the West as soon as Turkey demanded it. Despite the fact Turkey has a dictator now.

    The Kurds are the biggest losers aside from the population of Syria themselves.

    My point remains there is no winning anything by the West remaining in Syria. The regime will be cruel and barbaric but the West failed to be serious when it had the upper hand and has been in retreat ever since.

    The strategies in the Pentagon should have seen Russia entering when their base was threatened and remained serious about being there. Russia would have accepted that the price of protecting their base was too high.

    As soon as the US dithered and did not do the No Fly Zone it was over. Thats the sad reality.

    Guytaur

    I wonder if the sensible US strategists always doubted their ability to be strong man in Syria.

    After all they had effectively lost control of Iraq by that time so hanging on to Syria would be even more difficult.

    The Latakia area was always going to be a major problem because thy were pro Assad plus the fact that Russia was always likely to protect its base in Tartarus. Mind you I think the US totally missed the strengthening of Russia and its fundamental mood change. I suspect that they thought that Russia would fail to thrive and not be a real threat. After all the Georgian war while being won by Russia had not covered them in glory.

    However by 2014 it was too late for the USA to think about no fly zones or being the strong man in Syria, which is why Kerry tried to be the peacemaker.

    Guytaur

    In other words I am saying that the US had a narrow window of opportunity in 2012/13 to impose no-fly zones but having missed this it was way too late by 2014.

    I am wondering also if Turkey was always reluctant too, adding to the difficulty.

  7. Army Chief Angus Campbell is driving around Canberra in a seven tonne, $800k army vehicle usually used in war zones. (Daily Telegraph, 2 Apr). Defence Dept confirmed he was “testing out its capability”.

    Onlookers said it was “intimidating” in suburban streets.

  10. guytaur @ #41 Monday, April 2nd, 2018 – 8:36 am

    Poroti

    Thats the argument that the US should not have entered Syria in the first place.

    My point is if you are going to be serious about WMD and invade a country because of it. Be serious.

    The US was not. For a simple reason they did not want a repeat of Iraq. The price of the fiction of WMD in Iraq is now we have a state using WMD winning.

    Obama was a good President. However from the start he was hamstrung over Syria precisely because the neo cons had stuffed so badly in Iraq. The backing of the US domestic population for a serious response was gone. Especially after the Libya disaster.

    Obama only entered Syria due to the WMD. He had no choice. Going in he had to go as full on as Iraq. That was the intention complete with toppling Assad. We would have the mess in Syria that we have had with Iraq.

    At least Obama was dealing with real WMD

    Guytaur

    Actually there is no evidence at all that Syria used chemical weapons, although I have little doubt that they owned them. However all the evidence suggests that under the supervision of Russia they DID get rid of them all, although no doubt some rogue elements of BOTH sides managed to get hold of some.

    Obama should NOT have been encouraging rebellion in Syria, Ukraine or anywhere else. I like Obama but in foreign policy he was really little better than Bush. His heart was probably in the right place but he lacked sufficient authority to acheive much or indeed anything. he could not even close down Guantanamo.

  11. Mark Pesce@mpesce

    OH JESUS HANSON ON SUNRISE DECRYING THE CHINESE BUYING ALL OUR PRECIOUSSS BABBY FORMULA SO AUSTRALIAN BABBIES STARVE BECAUSE BECAUSE REASONS

    7: Still racist as.

  12. Torchbearer @ #15 Monday, April 2nd, 2018 – 7:41 am

    RE: Business case for the NBN…when they put a state of the art water pipe to your house, was there a business case? When they put a large diameter sewer pipe to your house, was there a business case? When they put a thick lethal electricity wire to your house, was there a business case? When they put a phone cable to your house, business case?
    When they want to put a state of the art, microscopic fibre cable to your house, suddenly WHERE”S THE BUSINESS CASE!

    +1

  13. @DTT – 8:36

    “My main reason for not including Hasluck is the basic popularity of ken Wyatt. He seems to me to be the sort of candidate that bucks the trend.”

    Wyatt had a swing against him at the last election. Although popular and the type of candidate to minimise the effects of a state wide swing the ‘sophomore effect’ has already dissipated and he will be gorne on the back of the sheer size of that trend. I’ve worked in marginal seats with good high profile well regarded MPs who get swept aside on the back of an anti-incumbent swing. When that happens there is nothing that candidate or the campaign team can do but watch the house go up in flames. I think that’s what Wyatt faces in Hasluck. He’s gorne.

  15. Boerwar says:
    Monday, April 2, 2018

    Do you have any idea how offensive your behaviour is?
    I counted fifteen uses of the term “anti-semitic” in your silly little rant.

    This is idiotic.

    It is also pathetic.

    You either have no clear understanding of what it means, or feel you should be entitled to make such flippant acusations without warrant or any actual evidence.

    Do yourself a favour, re-read what you have written, swap “nazi” (because that’s what you’re actually inferring) for each instance of “anti-semitic” and attempt to comprehend just how ridiculous you sound.


  16. C@tmomma (Block)
    Monday, April 2nd, 2018 – 8:48 am
    ….
    Nope. Nope. Nope. He probably thinks it was smart politics.

    Just want to understand our pm’s moral compass.

    Falling for staff member-out.
    Over caring your cricket balls- out.
    Breaking a paring arrangement organized because you are oh so religious-in.

  17. Guytaur and everyone else

    What makes us so sure that we in Australia do not have a stock of chemical or biological weapons or even the beginnings of nuclear technology.

    We most certainly DID get a start on nuclear weapons, back in the Harry Messel era and we had nuclear scientists working on fusion at Salsbury in SA. We presume they all stopped work in the late 60s, but I have my doubts if they all did. I know Messel switched to radio tracking crocodiles but his first love was still the bomb.

    To be brutally honest I think the day Pakistan got the bomb is they day that Australian scientists once again started to seriously consider the bomb again. Wheteher they did or did not is way beyond my knowledge, but i would stake money on the probability that from that time on it was at least in the bottom of strategic direction briefing notes.

    Now as to chemical weapons, I doubt that many countries use them although some may have stock piles. They are clumsy, too easy to fall into enemy hands and accident prone. A change in wind direction for example could have them coming back at your own side. Indeed so ineffective are they that I wonder if they warrant the term WMD. Effects are localised and variable.

    Biologics are different and I strongly suspect we DO engage in this research, or at least our bonafide work on disease prevention could rapidly switch to such work. Unlike nuclear stuff this only takes a small easily hidden lab somewhere.

    Now just by the way of inters I read the other day of the US program of biological warfare waged aginst North korea and China in the 1950s. It apprears to have credibility (a report to the British government recently released is the evidence).

    The technques used were apparently all based on ones developed by the Japanese and transferred to their US occupiers. They seemed pretty crude.

    HOWEVER what gives them some credibility is the huge anti fly campaign that was undertaken in China in the 50s/60s. i remember reading/hearing of it as a child and seeing newsreals of millions of Chinese swatting flies. Even then it seemed a little over the top, but when I read recently that it was apart of a cmapaing to prevent the use of biological weapons (insect vectors were the preferred strategy) it made more sense.

    Whatever the plan it seemed pertty wacky and of the same standard as the US plan to use cats for undercover surveillance. It was not very effective!!!!

  18. ddt writes:
    “Actually there is no evidence at all that Syria used chemical weapons, although I have little doubt that they owned them.”

    You really are a comedy act.

  20. Re Hasluck, IMHO, although he is well respected in WA Labor circles, indeed some call him the smartest man they know (even at the time I was tempted to suggest they needed to meet some more people) the Candidate last time was well, I’m a labor person and I’d have struggled to vote for him.

    Perhaps lacks a humble common touch, language, understanding might be a nice way to put it. Right at home on the ABC’s sunday night religious program, literally.

    The seat should have been won last time by Labor.

  21. frednk @ #68 Monday, April 2nd, 2018 – 9:21 am

    ddt writes:
    “Actually there is no evidence at all that Syria used chemical weapons, although I have little doubt that they owned them.”

    You really are a comedy act.

    And Russia didn’t use Novochok on the Skripols either is what I imagine dtt believes.

  22. Andrew_Earlwood @ #63 Monday, April 2nd, 2018 – 9:05 am

    @DTT – 8:36

    “My main reason for not including Hasluck is the basic popularity of ken Wyatt. He seems to me to be the sort of candidate that bucks the trend.”

    Wyatt had a swing against him at the last election. Although popular and the type of candidate to minimise the effects of a state wide swing the ‘sophomore effect’ has already dissipated and he will be gorne on the back of the sheer size of that trend. I’ve worked in marginal seats with good high profile well regarded MPs who get swept aside on the back of an anti-incumbent swing. When that happens there is nothing that candidate or the campaign team can do but watch the house go up in flames. I think that’s what Wyatt faces in Hasluck. He’s gorne.

    Andrew

    Fair enough – I will accept your analysis on Hasluck

  23. “Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Monday, April 2, 2018 at 9:05 am
    @DTT – 8:36

    “My main reason for not including Hasluck is the basic popularity of ken Wyatt. He seems to me to be the sort of candidate that bucks the trend.”

    Wyatt had a swing against him at the last election. Although popular and the type of candidate to minimise the effects of a state wide swing the ‘sophomore effect’ has already dissipated and he will be gorne on the back of the sheer size of that trend. I’ve worked in marginal seats with good high profile well regarded MPs who get swept aside on the back of an anti-incumbent swing. When that happens there is nothing that candidate or the campaign team can do but watch the house go up in flames. I think that’s what Wyatt faces in Hasluck. He’s gorne.
    ”
    According to Peter Hartcher in Weekend SMH, If MT goes Bishop will challenge Dutton. If she get up in the challenge, then WA will stay solid with LNP because they did not have a PM since Curtin( although Hawke is a Western Australian, he contested from Vivtoria).
    In that scenario Ken Wyatt will survive.
    If she does not become PM we may not have elections at all & some other worst case scenario.

  24. Cat

    I am surprised DTT is not all over this the catastrophe if it hits Sydney right up the dystopian alley.

    Folks, this is the point when observer reports would be VERY useful. Just because you find a website that says TIangong is 150 km up right now doesn’t mean it is, they are all running on stale data. Let us know if you see it – or if you should have seen it but didn’t.

  27. I really do hope that CTar1 is simply engaging in the required rest and recuperation after his hospital procedure and will be back soon. 🙂

  28. The New York TimesVerified account@nytimes
    2h2 hours ago
    Jim Mattis, the defense secretary, may be the last reliable voice of caution in an increasingly hawkish administration. Can he hold the line?

    During the Obama years Mattis was regarded as a warmonger, so what does it say about the Trump administration that he’s now a hopeful voice of caution?

  30. frednk @ #68 Monday, April 2nd, 2018 – 9:21 am

    ddt writes:
    “Actually there is no evidence at all that Syria used chemical weapons, although I have little doubt that they owned them.”

    You really are a comedy act.

    Fred

    No you are the comedy act. You accept what Rupert tells you like a wee little three year old believing in Santa Clause. Surely by the time you are twelve you can stop believing anything told you by military, police politicians and businessmen and bankers and sadly the press also.

    Of course sometimes it is true, but usually it will be biased in some direction. Since the only reports of attacks by chemicals come form totally unreliable Syrian opposition forces I cannot accept them without verification. most certainly the most recent one where Trump sent in the missiles was NOT done by the Syrian government.

    You always have to use you BRAIN to interpret news reports. First question – Who stand to gain? In the case of chemical weapons, at least since 2012 when Russia go involved the chances of Assad using his stockpike was negligible – too much to lose.

    Now I can accept that rogue elements of the SAA might use some, but again the negative impacts of such weapons are great and only a fool would use them indiscriminately.

    I do get sick of being told I am the comedy act by a bunch of ignorant sycophants. Read a bit Fred before calling me out.

    Guytaur is biased but at least he does read something and has a though out position. You just do abuse based on ignorance.

  31. ‘Absence of Empathy says:
    Monday, April 2, 2018 at 9:16 am

    Boerwar says:
    Monday, April 2, 2018

    Do you have any idea how offensive your behaviour is?
    I counted fifteen uses of the term “anti-semitic” in your silly little rant.

    This is idiotic.

    It is also pathetic.

    You either have no clear understanding of what it means, or feel you should be entitled to make such flippant acusations without warrant or any actual evidence.

    Do yourself a favour, re-read what you have written, swap “nazi” (because that’s what you’re actually inferring) for each instance of “anti-semitic” and attempt to comprehend just how ridiculous you sound.’

    I see that you are continuing to ignore the evidence completely, to deflect, and to engage in personal abuse. Fortunately, there are many good people inside the British Labour Party who have declared that any anti-semitism inside the British Labour Party is too much anti-semitism.

  32. Ven @ #73 Monday, April 2nd, 2018 – 9:26 am

    “Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Monday, April 2, 2018 at 9:05 am
    @DTT – 8:36

    “My main reason for not including Hasluck is the basic popularity of ken Wyatt. He seems to me to be the sort of candidate that bucks the trend.”

    Wyatt had a swing against him at the last election. Although popular and the type of candidate to minimise the effects of a state wide swing the ‘sophomore effect’ has already dissipated and he will be gorne on the back of the sheer size of that trend. I’ve worked in marginal seats with good high profile well regarded MPs who get swept aside on the back of an anti-incumbent swing. When that happens there is nothing that candidate or the campaign team can do but watch the house go up in flames. I think that’s what Wyatt faces in Hasluck. He’s gorne.
    ”
    According to Peter Hartcher in Weekend SMH, If MT goes Bishop will challenge Dutton. If she get up in the challenge, then WA will stay solid with LNP because they did not have a PM since Curtin( although Hawke is a Western Australian, he contested from Vivtoria).
    In that scenario Ken Wyatt will survive.
    If she does not become PM we may not have elections at all & some other worst case scenario.

    Ven

    Not sure whether to laugh or cry. It has a horrid feel of truth to it. Jeepers

  33. ‘Confessions says:
    Monday, April 2, 2018 at 9:33 am

    The New York TimesVerified account@nytimes
    2h2 hours ago
    Jim Mattis, the defense secretary, may be the last reliable voice of caution in an increasingly hawkish administration. Can he hold the line?

    During the Obama years Mattis was regarded as a warmonger, so what does it say about the Trump administration that he’s now a hopeful voice of caution?’

    Most of Trump’s behaviour in relation to NK is straight out of Mad Dog’s playbook.

  35. Alternate questions not asked by observers, which were asked below
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/no-room-in-the-skripal-saga-for-alternative-theories-20180401-p4z79z.html

    I might have missed the news on evidence, can someone please point me to the evidence that UK government provided which shows that Putin/ Russia is behind the poisoning of the ex-double agent other than that UK government said so.
    We know what happened when UK government provided the report that said that Saddam Hussien has capacity to attack UK in 40 minutes. USA used the report & other such info to attack Iraq & rest is history. Also, The UK government is in deep trouble with Brexit. There is very less news of Brexit after this poisoning story? Isn’t?

  36. Confession

    If there is a focus to the global US strategy it seems to me to be to clear the decks for a direct US assault on Iran.

    I imagine that the Iranians have thee means to close the Strait of Hormuz. The resulting surge in global oil prices would put the world’s economy into a spin.
    Would that matter to Trump?
    I doubt it.

  37. I don’t think Bishop saves the furniture in WA for the LNP. She can be tarred with the nastiness of Dutton etc (she has been deputy leader the whole time) and she has lived the billionaire party lifestyle, more Imelda Marcos than Corazon Aquino.

  38. Ven @ #85 Monday, April 2nd, 2018 – 9:41 am

    Alternate questions not asked by observers, which were asked below
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/no-room-in-the-skripal-saga-for-alternative-theories-20180401-p4z79z.html

    I might have missed the news on evidence, can someone please point me to the evidence that UK government provided which shows that Putin/ Russia is behind the poisoning of the ex-double agent other than that UK government said so.
    We know what happened when UK government provided the report that said that Saddam Hussien has capacity to attack UK in 40 minutes. USA used the report & other such info to attack Iraq & rest is history. Also, The UK government is in deep trouble with Brexit. There is very less news of Brexit after this poisoning story? Isn’t?

    The Russian government has formally sent the following request to France

    On March 31, the Embassy of the Russian Federation in Paris delivered to the French Foreign Ministry a note with a list of questions to the French side regarding the Skripal case fabricated against Russia:

    On what grounds did France become involved in the technical side of the United Kingdom’s investigation of the incident in Salisbury?
    Has France officially notified the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) of its involvement in the technical side of the investigation of the incident in Salisbury?
    What evidence did the United Kingdom hand over to France as part of the technical side of the investigation?
    Were French specialists present when biological samples were collected from Sergey and Yulia Skripal?
    Did French specialists conduct their own tests of the biological samples collected from Sergey and Yulia Skripal and, if so, at which specific laboratory?
    Based on which attributes did the French specialists conclude that the chemical warfare agent of the Novichok type (in accordance to British terminology) or its analogues were used in this case?
    What expert knowledge does France have in studying chemical warfare agents of this type or its analogues?
    Based on which attributes (markers) was the alleged “Russian origin” of the substance used in Salisbury established by French specialists?
    Does France have control samples of the Novichok chemical warfare agent (in accordance to British terminology) or its analogues?
    Have samples of the chemical warfare agent of this type or its analogues been developed in France and, if so, for what purpose?

    Very reasonable. The sort of questions that you would expect a barrister to ask the prosecution.

    They may well have asked the same questions of other countries.

  41. Hi William, bludgertrack has Labor ahead in Page, Robertson, Banks and Gilmore, but only picking up three seats in NSW.

  42. Boerwar:

    I can’t for the life of me discern any global strategy on the part of the US. The national govt is just bumbling along from crisis to crisis without any strategic intent.

  43. So, what is the evidence that AoE and others continue to insist does not exist?

    1. Around three dozen British Labour MPs are sufficiently concerned about anti-semitism inside the Labour Party to call it out.
    2. Corbyn’s response to the blatantly anti-semitic Mear mural.
    3. Several senior Labour Party people who are currently suspended for anti-semitic comments of one sort or another.
    4. A series of public apologies for anti-semitic comments, including by Corbyn himself.
    5. Around 50 documented cases in which anti-semitic slurs were used in public Labour Party meetings, Labor branch and Party Room meetings and the like.
    6. Extensive use of anti-semitic slurs and commentary in social media sites in particular those most heavily engaged with the Far Left and those that most heavily support Corbyn.
    7. Normally publicly reticent national Jewish organisations going public with both evidence of, and criticism of, anti-semitic comments by British Labour Party members. They do not want the next British Government and the next British Prime Minister to be anti-semitic. They have a point.
    8. Routine weak criticisms of anti-semitism by Corbyn and others. Why does Corbyn make these criticisms if HE doesn’t think that anti-semitism exists in the British Labour Party

  44. Jeremy Corbyb @jeremycorbyn
    The killing and wounding by Israeli forces of civilians demonstrating for Palestinian rights in Gaza is appalling.

    The UK Government must make its voice heard on the urgency of a genuine settlement for peace and justice.

  46. CNNVerified account@CNN
    11h11 hours ago
    “Israel overreacted … Gaza is a disaster right now,” says Sen. Bernie Sanders after violent clashes leave at least 17 Palestinians dead and more than 1,400 injured https://cnn.it/2Gt1MaQ

  47. I love the way Switzer throws in “a few legal wins” at the end of his “wharfie’s incident” CV of Reith.

    In fact these minor squabbles involved both single judges and the full benches of both the Federal and High Courts of Australia, delivering stunning, almost unanimous verdicts (with the exception of Howard plant, Callinan) in favour of the union, and in condemnation of the employer’s, the farmers’ and the minister’s tactics.

    It is difficult to imagine a more comprehensive defeat for the employer side, made all the more compelling due to the swiftness and sureness with which those decisions were issued. The employers were on a legal hiding to nothing, yet Switzer dismisses this as virtually incidental to the issue.

    The LAST person we need now with the reins in his hand is another bumbling, jackbooted thug like Reith, who (as mentioned above) gave us new and creative ways to use phone cards (at taxpayer expense), and was the originator of the Children Overboard scandal, using the novel method of quoting a radio interview with himself on the Monday, which was then laundered into an anonymous “intelligence assessment” via the ONA overnight, as official factual “proof” of his position by the Tuesday.

    Never again, please.

  48. “So, what is the evidence ”

    All your evidence is conclusion / characterisation, and well in this particular area of discussion there isn’t actually agreement on the characterisations and conclusions one can draw.

  49. “I can’t for the life of me discern any global strategy on the part of the US.”

    If they had one under Obama, we might still be seeing the remnants of it playing out, but currently it is unlikely any capable strategists are being listened to, and tactics are delivered by tweet based on a lazy fool’s mood while watching propaganda, so even trying to discern a strategy in a context where it is clear there isn’t one, is not a good sign.

  50. BB

    The LAST person we need now with the reins in his hand is another bumbling, jackbooted thug like Reith,

    He was the one who really opened my eyes to lying MPs.

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