The Australian today brings us Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns by state, gender and metropolitan/regional, which provides a welcome deepening of BludgerTrack’s data pool for the states. In particular, the addition of the Newspoll takes the edge off the double-digit swing to Labor that BludgerTrack has been recording of late in Western Australia, bringing it down to 8.4% (Newspoll has it at 6.7%).
Newspoll comes within about 1% of the existing readings of BludgerTrack in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland, but has Labor leading 54-46 in South Australia, where BludgerTrack formerly had it at 51.4-48.6. On the seat projections, BludgerTrack now has Labor one higher in Victoria and two higher in Queensland than before the Newspoll numbers were added, but two lower than their implausibly strong result from Western Australia.
It should be observed that the Newspoll data is not new, having been aggregated from the results of the last four Newspolls. As such, the BludgerTrack national voting intention numbers are exactly as they were following last week’s update, with only the state breakdowns changing.
The full results from Newspoll can be viewed here. The biggest changes since the last quarter are a four point gain for the Coalition in Queensland, on both primary and two-party, although the primary gain is more at the expense of One Nation (down two) than Labor (down one); and a six-point drop for “others” in South Australia, presumably reflecting the decline of the Nick Xenophon Team, which yields a four-point gain for Labor and one-point gains for the Liberals and the Greens, with Labor up a point on two-party.
Other breakdowns record a three-point increase in the Coalition primary vote among those aged 50 and over, although this comes more at the expense of One Nation than Labor; a three-point gain for Labor among the 35-49s, with the Coalition also up a point, the Greens and One Nation down one, and “others” down two; and nothing of consequence in the gender breakdowns.
David Clarke @david_clarke91
Well said Jeremy.
Yesterday a massacre took place when Israeli forces engaged in the
Sniping of protesting Palestinian Kids.
It was a terrible slaughter worse than Bloody Sunday yet our Tory government has doffed it’s cap to Trump and Netanyahu and said and done nothing. https://twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/980047907213717510
Nauru to abolish appeals to the High Court of Australia https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/apr/02/fears-for-asylum-seekers-as-nauru-moves-to-cut-ties-to-australias-high-court?CMP=share_btn_tw
Very reasonable. The sort of questions that you would expect a barrister to ask the prosecution.
The sort of questions a Defence Barrister would ask the Prosecution in order to obfuscate and prevaricate around his client’s guilt.
Russia is guilty. No one, and no other country, had motive. Not even for any sort of ‘demonstration effect’ related to some sort of nefarious anti Russian plot. Nothing. Nada. Nyet. Bupkis.
Bushfire Bill @ #97 Monday, April 2nd, 2018 – 7:01 am
In relation to Reith I can see parallels with Cash.
A single minded anti-Unionist who also seems to be on the way to being thwarted by the Courts. 🙂
@Daretoread
I think some of your projections in WA and QLD are overly pessimistic. Lilly and Longman won’t be in the Liberal sights, and the Liberals have conceded they wouldn’t likely even win Longman in a by-election even if the high court forced it too one. Herbert has only been the murmur from the Liberals about picking up one of Labor seats and even then with the vote swinging Labors way on current polling plus incumbency that is doubtful. The Guardian also reported the other day there were 10 seats into play for federal seats in Queensland. You can’t stop the pendulum either, Newcorp predicted Labor would win four extra seats in QLD at the 2007 federal election despite the statewide polling showing otherwise. Labor picked up a extra ten seats at that election.
Labor’s vote is going strong in WA, there may be a turn of the tide there when some voters feel there ready to vote Labor. Andrew Hastie has conceded WA federally has been a blue wall in the past and maybe the feeling its time for a change. Labor vote was largely muted in the Kevin Rudd landslide of 2007 because the mining boom was going strong and voters didn’t want to change horses in mid-stream.
However these are only my guesses on current polling and there is still long way to go until the next federal election.
Boerwar,
You might have a case if Israel’s Armed Forces weren’t murdering Palestinians in cold blood.
No matter who controls the Gaza Strip.
No matter what their malign intent is towards Israel.
Israel, and others, have been getting away with labelling anyone who questions them and their actions and beahviour, as Anti Semites, for far too long. It’s about time the bloody Authoritarian leader of Israel, Netanyahu, was held to account. That does not make one an Anti Semite.
Israel has used it’s money and it’s concentrated voting blocs in other countries to buy complicity from politicians and governments for far too long. It’s long past time it was held to account.
Reith at least could remain sanguine concerning his beliefs (if he ever had any) or actions.
Cash is the classic example of a fighter too consumed by hatred of her enemy to do an efficient job without stuffing it up.
WWP
Like Corbyn we can’t figure out that an anti-semitic mural is an anti-semitic mural?
‘C@tmomma says:
Monday, April 2, 2018 at 10:15 am
Boerwar,
You might have a case if Israel’s Armed Forces weren’t murdering Palestinians in cold blood.’
This line probably does much to explain why anti-semitism is permeating the British Labour Party.
The notion that one can ONLY be against Israeli mass murder IF one is also anti-semitic is a very large logical fallacy.
Criticizing brutal zionist apartheid occupation regime of Israel is not antisemitism because it is a polical and human rights issue. Not about religion (jew) or genetic ancestry (semite).
BTW Palestinians are the real Semites https://twitter.com/CentristSlayer/status/980492875409403904
CRITICISING ISRAEL IS NOT ANTISEMITIC
CRITICISING ISRAEL IS NOT ANTISEMITIC
CRITICISING ISRAEL IS NOT ANTISEMITIC
CRITICISING ISRAEL IS NOT ANTISEMITIC
CRITICISING ISRAEL IS NOT ANTISEMITIC
CRITICISING ISRAEL IS NOT ANTISEMITIC
CRITICISING ISRAEL IS NOT ANTISEMITIC
Also worth noting that Hastie was nearly not elected at all – it was only the last second switch from Abbott to Turnbull, with a resulting bounce in polling, which got him over the line.
g
Criticizing the State of Israels for illegal and immoral behaviours of the State of Israel is not, IMO, anti-semitic.
“guytaur says:
Monday, April 2, 2018 at 9:53 am
Jeremy Corbyb @jeremycorbyn
The killing and wounding by Israeli forces of civilians demonstrating for Palestinian rights in Gaza is appalling.
The UK Government must make its voice heard on the urgency of a genuine settlement for peace and justice.”
Is that one of the anti-semitic comments by Corbyn?
Bushfire Bill @ #107 Monday, April 2nd, 2018 – 7:16 am
Yep, but she is trying to perform a similar role to what Reith did. 🙂
One for Boerwar and lizzie:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-03-31/eyre-bird-observatory-appeals-for-volunteers/9607418
‘Ven says:
Monday, April 2, 2018 at 10:24 am
“guytaur says:
Monday, April 2, 2018 at 9:53 am
Jeremy Corbyb @jeremycorbyn
The killing and wounding by Israeli forces of civilians demonstrating for Palestinian rights in Gaza is appalling.
The UK Government must make its voice heard on the urgency of a genuine settlement for peace and justice.”
Is that one of the anti-semitic comments by Corbyn?’
Of course it isn’t anti-semitic! It is an evidence-based, legitimate criticism of the behaviour of the Israeli State.
But, in your opinion, does that mean that Corbyn is not anti-semitic?
As an Egyptian camel rider once said to me!
People and Governments are two very different things!!! 🙂
BW
So accept Jeremy Corbyn is human and made an error on the mural. Accept that there is a smear campaign against Corbyn in full flight in the UK.
Then you might get it. No one is excusing anti semitism in the Labour party including Mr Corbyn.
You just have the racists hyperventilating so they can say both sides do racism. Its another use the fear to smear campaign. Fear Corbyn as Labour leader because he will side with Russia and Iran. Thats the message from the right.
All the articles on the issue have been clear. Labour is not putting up with Anti Semitism in its ranks.
That includes Mr Corbyn who has not acted to defend said Anti Semitism.
Thats the reality of how a party works.
“Like Corbyn we can’t figure out that an anti-Semitic mural is an anti-Semitic mural?”
I can figure it out, but some seem to think criticising the state of Israel for murdering innocent children in cold blood is anti-Semitic and the State of Israel propaganda machine is as effective as it is ruthless. In fact in some cases failing short of praising Israel for its great work in murdering innocent children counts as anti-Semitic, so you’ll understand my scepticism.
This whole debate would be a lot simpler in fact if the State of Israel stopped murdering innocent people and worked towards a fair two state solution in terms of land and other resources. Their whole murdering people thing tends to muddy the waters.
So unless and until I see the picture and form the conclusion myself you’ll forgive me for being a little sceptical about the conclusions that should be drawn.
Confessions
Thank you.
We were were all lined up to engage in that sort of volunteer activity, including for Bush Heritage Australian properties, but large numbers of grandchildren requiring baby sitting and child minding to enable parents to work nobbled that one. Maybe if we are still young enough in our eighties…
#Resistance411 @LadyLiberty411
#CambridgeAnalytica CEO says he met with Trump ‘many times’
#StolenElection #FakePOTUS https://www.cnn.com/videos/cnnmoney/2018/03/20/cambridge-analytica-ceo-trump-campaign.cnnmoney
LordWentworth @LordofWentworth
Political Strategy
*****************
@billshortenmp echos Rudd’s call for a #NBNRC. As the Murdoch press relentlessly attacks Labor on each and every issue, Labor counters with “that’s coming from the media baron who instructed the Liberals to destroy the NBN”
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2017/11/18/exclusive-rudd-calls-news-corp-inquiry/15109236005520
WWP
There are three issues that need to be kept separate here.
1. Whether a behaviour is anti-semitic. It either is, or it isn’t.
2. The behaviour of the State of Israel.
3. The behaviour of the apologists and spin doctors on all sides.
1. Does the British Labor Party have problems with anti-semitic behaviour? There is plenty of evidence (see above) that it does.
2. Does the State of Israel behave in illegal and unethical ways. IMO, it does.
3. Do apologists, spin doctors and the like seek use/abuse anti-semitic behaviour and/or the behaviour of the State of Israel for purposes other than specifically addressing anti-semitism? IMO, there are many such people. However, pointing to abuse by apologists and spin doctors does not blot out the illegal, unethical or anti-semitic behaviours themselves.
‘guytaur says:
Monday, April 2, 2018 at 10:30 am
BW
So accept Jeremy Corbyn is human and made an error on the mural.’
It is good to see that you have accepted that Corbyn has behaved in an anti-semitic way.
What is your view about the evidence that anti-semitism is extensive inside the British Labour Party?
Boerwar says:
Monday, April 2, 2018 at 9:37 am
…”I see that you are continuing to ignore the evidence completely, to deflect, and to engage in personal abuse. Fortunately, there are many good people inside the British Labour Party who have declared that any anti-semitism inside the British Labour Party is too much anti-semitism”…
.
I read the New York Times article you linked to last night.
It was mostly borderline hysterical American’s, tweeting about an issue they quite deliberately haven’t bothered to fully think through.
American’s love using any old excuse to jump on a moral high horse to attack others, it is practically the national past time, and you are doing the same thing.
You are a bully, you use terminology of violence, to accuse others of something you are clearly incapable of comprehending, and then claim you are being personally abused.
Go stand in the naughty corner with the other sook.
BW
My view is it is not extensive. My view is it is a minority being beat up by the right to smear the entire Labour Party.
This despite the fact Labour has acted on the issue.
Thats all they can do. Act. They have. The committee in charge of expelling the anti semites are from the Blairite Faction. So any slowness in expulsion is due to them.
Note no one in the Labour party is denying the Facebook Posts.
Just accept that the right wing is crying racism of Corbyn to conflate Israel Criticism with a minority of Labour being found and expelled.
The timing when its Israel under fire for human rights abuses is in itself problematic.
The UN report on 2014 incidents came out at the same time.
As for Corbyn been anti semitic he is supporting Palestinians human rights. So as the tweet I posted above shows that dog does not hunt. Jewish people are not the only Semites.
“3. Do apologists, spin doctors and the like seek use/abuse anti-semitic behaviour and/or the behaviour of the State of Israel for purposes other than specifically addressing anti-semitism? IMO, there are many such people. However, pointing to abuse by apologists and spin doctors does not blot out the illegal, unethical or anti-semitic behaviours themselves.”
Other than the Alt-right which are explicitly and deliberately anti-Semitic most other behaviours labelled anti-Semitic are really anti-Israel, so I take you point about keeping separate things separate.
Boerwar says:
Monday, April 2, 2018 at 10:28 am
“But, in your opinion, does that mean that Corbyn is not anti-semitic?”
I was just querying whether that statement by Corbyn is the anti-semitic statement?
I do not know the story behind the anti-semitic mural. I understand Israel government is only democratic government in that region facing hostile regimes in the region.
I do not care much about UK one way or other. I just don’t take them at their face value anymore after what they said & did in Iraq war , the Brexit argument to get ‘No vote up etc, whether it is Labour or Tory government.
Also fighting anti-Semitism is as noble as that venture is, seems to lose its context. It is a form of fighting racism.
And particularly in the West, in the UK, Australia and the US, you are going to have a lot of racism to fight before anti-Semitism gets to the top of your list. So if it is the top of your list at present, you have a bit of a problem.
So, what is the evidence that AoE and others continue to insist does not exist?
1. Around three dozen British Labour MPs are sufficiently concerned about anti-semitism inside the Labour Party to call it out.
2. Corbyn’s response to the blatantly anti-semitic Mear mural.
3. Several senior Labour Party people who are currently suspended for anti-semitic comments of one sort or another.
4. A series of public apologies for anti-semitic comments, including by Corbyn himself.
5. Around 50 documented cases in which anti-semitic slurs were used in public Labour Party meetings, Labor branch and Party Room meetings and the like.
6. Extensive use of anti-semitic slurs and commentary in social media sites in particular those most heavily engaged with the Far Left and those that most heavily support Corbyn.
7. Normally publicly reticent national Jewish organisations going public with both evidence of, and criticism of, anti-semitic comments by British Labour Party members. They do not want the next British Government and the next British Prime Minister to be anti-semitic. They have a point.
8. Routine weak criticisms of anti-semitism by Corbyn and others. Why does Corbyn make these criticisms if HE doesn’t think that anti-semitism exists in the British Labour Party.
AoE’s response to this evidence? More shouty abuse.
Given that Corbyn leads a Party that has an anti-semitism problem, is Corbyn’s moral authority for making legitimate (and much-needed) criticisms of the State of Israel undermined?
Their agenda is to smear Jeremy Corbyn, a leader whom they tried and failed to remove, and who ended the Government’s majority despite many of his MPs undermining him every step of the way. Criticism of Israeli Government policy is not anti-semitism. Sadly, the Israeli lobby mischievously conflates the two. They need to be called out for doing that.
‘WeWantPaul says:
Monday, April 2, 2018 at 10:52 am
Also fighting anti-Semitism is as noble as that venture is, seems to lose its context. It is a form of fighting racism.
And particularly in the West, in the UK, Australia and the US, you are going to have a lot of racism to fight before anti-Semitism gets to the top of your list. So if it is the top of your list at present, you have a bit of a problem.’
I think these are good issues to consider.
IMO, anti-semitism is a form of racism. But is all racism equally bad? Are some issues arising from racism a higher priority than other issues? Can a Party simultaneous be anti-semitic and against other forms of racism?
WeWantPaul @ #127 Monday, April 2nd, 2018 – 10:48 am
Even that may be a stretch. Is being critical of things Israel has done the same as being “anti-Israel”? Even when Israel has done some legitimately bad things, like state-sanctioned land-grabs via settlements and so on?
Is the only way to not get tarred as anti-Israel/anti-Semitic to publicly endorse anything and everything Israel does, however deplorable some of those things may be?
It’s basically like saying that anyone who doesn’t approve of Australia’s refugee policies is anti-Australia.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #30 Monday, April 2nd, 2018 – 6:28 am
My take on it is that the L/NP will cut WA loose at the next election. They can save the furniture in WA or Queensland, but not both. Locally, the WA Liberals went into the state election divided and short of money and emerged from the smouldering ruins of that disaster holding only the safest of safe seats in Perth’s wealthy and affluent Western suburbs.
Given their political and financial realities – they are in no condition to fight an election; they’ll be best served with a small target strategy at the 2018/19 Federal election backed up with a plan to be competitive in the 2021 state and 2021/22 federal elections. Looking at their choice of candidate for the recent Cottosloe by-election, a 60-year-old establishment man, the WA Liberals have chosen not to go down the renewal path.
The lack of state metropolitan seats in away from Perth’s western suburbs will cause considerable challenges for the Liberal party in the Federal election campaign. They are going into an election with little in the way of local assistance from sitting state members in the key seats of Canning, Hasluck, Pearce and Swan; denying them considerable logistical assistance and worse, established conduits to the local community.
The WA economy is not going well at the moment, and the L/NP are peddling trickle-down economics and cuts to penalty rates. Labor, on the other hand, will be campaigning with a campaign war chest totalling $200b.
We’ve been out door knocking already in Pearce for the upcoming Federal election and only a black swan event is going to save Porter. I suspect the situation is similar for the other 4 targeted seats in WA. A bloodbath awaits the Liberals at the upcoming election.
‘Nicholas says:
Monday, April 2, 2018 at 10:53 am
Around three dozen British Labour MPs are sufficiently concerned…’
Their agenda is to smear Jeremy Corbyn, a leader whom they tried and failed to remove, and who ended the Government’s majority despite many of his MPs undermining him every step of the way.’
Uh huh. You focus on just one bit of the evidence and write that off because, in your view, it is politically motivated and therefore the anti-semitism just disappears. Are you really asserting that Corbyn has not engaged in anti-semitic behaviour? What about all the other evidence itemized above? You just want to ignore it?
‘Criticism of Israeli Government policy is not anti-semitism.’
Agreed.
‘ Sadly, the Israeli lobby mischievously conflates the two. They need to be called out for doing that.’
Agreed.
But neither of these points says anything about the evidence that the British Labour Party has a problem with anti-semitism.
BW
What is your evidence Labour has not acted and that Corbyn does not fully support that action?
To say Corbyn supports anti semitism you need proof of deliberate actions. An apology should be accepted unless its proven hollow. Labours actions are clear. Human Rights Equality not Inequality.
Core Corbyn values that some have criticised him for being too soft as he pursues human rights and equality.
The whole core of the person Corbyn campaigns on is the exact opposite of supporting racism. So calling him anti semite is calling him racist. Go look at his policies and actions on human rights.
Then get back to me when you can prove Corbynis a racist when his actions via policy and by campaigning for equality have been the exact opposite of supporting racism.
Abbott is prepared to do anything to broaden his appeal!
Turnbull could have been the deep cleanser
No. No he couldn’t have. Not even a little bit.
Anyone who thinks this Trumble isn’t the one and only real Trumble has simply not been paying attention and falling for some of the most reality defying spin in history.
g
I suggest you go back to all the items of evidence I provided and consider them not as isolated bits of information about isolated anti-semitic behaviour but solid evidence that the British Labour Party has a problem with anti-semitism.
Further, Corbyn, who has apologized for his own anti-semitic behaviour, is manifestly unwilling or unable to address the anti-semitism in a serious way.
GG
He needs to put a wind turbine on the chimney and then to invite Washington’s Biggest Leaner to tiffin.
GG:
Is that really Abbott’s home?
Definitely agree Boerwar, not all racism is the same, you look at the picture of the Whitehouse interns and remember that Israel and Jews aren’t really locked out of anything in the West, I’m being careful to avoid any of the silly conspiracy rubbish so don’t try and take my comment there, but most PoC have real issues even getting to the table, and when they do like Waleed on the project they cop a hell of a lot of racist abuse if the dare hold and opinion. And other than frequent and often dodgy calls of anti-Semitism in Australia being called out on racism seems to be taken as a much bigger problem than actually, you know being racist.
Can’t remember who to credit but I’m finishing with the fact that learning what racism is and learning not to be racist is a really really hard journey, but it is heaps better than staying an asshole.
Boerwar @ #139 Monday, April 2nd, 2018 – 11:04 am
Your ‘evidence’ carries no weight whatsoever. Hearsay and innuendo.
Provide some evidence of substance or your case is dismissed.
I think that’s what Wyatt faces in Hasluck. He’s gorne.
The only reason Wyatt won’t be one of the first seats called for the ALP is the time zone.
Greensborough Growler @ #137 Monday, April 2nd, 2018 – 11:02 am
Then shouldn’t he be installing a coal-fired furnace instead?
Hi William, bludgertrack has Labor ahead in Page, Robertson, Banks and Gilmore, but only picking up three seats in NSW.
I’d actually think Page will be very tough for Labor. If anything I’d have Reid a far better chance than Page.
Rudd, not content with revenge on Gillard, now seeks same on Murdoch.
Gillard had the audacity to accept leadership responsibility when the Rudd Govt had collapsed.
Murdoch had the audacity to reject Rudds overtures for a cosy relationship.
Kevin will go to the grave a bitter man.
Confessions @ #141 Monday, April 2nd, 2018 – 11:05 am
i’m happy to be corrected. But, that’s what the accompanying blurb says.
a r @ #145 Monday, April 2nd, 2018 – 11:10 am
Coal fired solar panels could be the next frontier in the climate change debate!
BREAKING: Chinese space office says the defunct Tiangong 1 space station has re-entered atmosphere and mostly burned up. http://apne.ws/ydpdnvt