Essential Research and BludgerTrack deluxe

Introducing a bigger and better BludgerTrack. Also featured: a status quo result from Essential Research, at least so far as the major parties are concerned.

First up, BludgerTrack has proudly moved into the twenty-first century with a new fully interactive feature, offering hitherto hidden detail on state-level primary votes and the seat result probability estimates that are used to calculate the final result. Also included are the leadership rating trends, and there’s a facility for viewing raw opinion data throughout the current term.

The results as shown are updated to include the ReachTEL and Essential Research results, and the former has had a particularly big impact on voting intention, the primary numbers being even worse for the Coalition than the headline two-party result suggested. However, despite the 1% lurch to Labor on two-party preferred, there is little change to the seat projection, as the Coalition has had some stronger numbers lately from all-important Queensland, and Labor was largely punching into thin air with its gains in New South Wales and Victoria this week.

Then there’s the regular fortnightly result for Essential Research, which is notable in having both major parties at the low ebb of 35% on the primary vote, with the Coalition down one on a fortnight ago and Labor down two. This helps One Nation recover two points to 8%, with the Greens steady on 10%. Also unchanged is Labor’s two-party lead of 53-47.

Further questions relate mostly to the Barnaby Joyce situation, with a question conceived before his resignation on Friday finding 34% wanting him to leave parliament, 26% thinking he should resign as leader but stay in parliament, and only 19% thinking he should remain leader of the Nationals. Forty-four per cent expressed approval of “media reporting on politicians’ private affairs”, with 41% disapproving.

The poll also finds more respondents than not in favour not only of the ban on sex between ministers and their staff, but also on politicians having extra-marital sex altogether, and between managers and staff in the workplace. Twenty-two per cent even favoured a “ban on sex between workmates in general”, with 55% opposed. A rather particular question on health insurance policy finds 48% supporting removing the subsidy on private health insurance premiums and using the funds to include dental care in Medicare, with 32% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,634 comments on “Essential Research and BludgerTrack deluxe”

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  1. *******
    Oh hear, hear!
    On any topic, such posts are just the ultimate inanity.
    Only beaten by 2 or more posters essentially saying the same thing back and forth to each other over and over and then repeating it all over again a bit later.
    ********
    Auditioning for this years Poll Bludger Grumpy Old Fart rep team?

    I would put you in the probables vs possibles and see how you go.

  3. Massive change in Batman betting market with Sportsbet, was Greens $1.10 and ALP $4.50 now somewhat shorter

    Election Markets (1)
    Greens 1.40 Labor 2.60 Any Other41.00

  6. I doubt that Trump would bow out voluntarily, that is just not what he does. Trump still seems to have the support of the vast majority of the Republican base, largely because of the bubble of right-wing propaganda bubble many of them live in, and is thus likely to retain the Republican nomination. Trump could potentially even win the nomination if he is impeached.

    I do think there is likely to be a challenge from Romney for the nomination, reducing the chances of a Trump victory as contested renomination of an incumbent reduces the chances of an incumbent`s re-election.

  8. Nick McKim and Erica Betz are both very disagreeable panelists on the ABC coverage of the Tas election…

  9. I do think there is likely to be a challenge from Romney for the nomination

    I’m hoping that Senator Romney can bring some sense to the Senate, but remain to be convinced. So far Republicans are locked and loaded behind President Man Baby.

  10. Sprocket says:
    Saturday, March 3, 2018 at 9:07 pm
    Massive change in Batman betting market with Sportsbet, was Greens $1.10 and ALP $4.50 now somewhat shorter

    Election Markets (1)
    Greens 1.40 Labor 2.60 Any Other41.00

    Interesting….Why would anyone who wished to change the government in Canberra vote against the Opposition candidate? If you want change, it makes sense to vote Labor rather than for the Liberals’ surrogates…

  13. Honestly. I think Trump will die before he gets to the end of his second term. Should he get one. He is a walking, talking advertisement for a heart attack. He’ll go the way of Elvis. Either sitting on his bed Tweeting, or on the toilet, eating.

  14. C@tmomma @ #2934 Saturday, March 3rd, 2018 – 8:20 pm

    Confessions @ #2907 Saturday, March 3rd, 2018 – 7:15 pm

    I’ve got callouses on the end of my finger from swiping through “This-time-Trump-is-gone-for-sure” posts.

    Not one commenter has said ‘this time Trump is gone for sure’. Not today. Not yesterday. Not last week or even the week before that.

    Hyperbole much?

    Yes, I remember the last time Bushfire Bill tried to get Phoenix Red to stop posting links to Trump articles. He was quite mean to him about it.

    You wouldn’t think Bushfire Bill had his very own blog he could retreat to if he doesn’t like it here.

    And, if you believed what he was trying to put out there, you’d forget that The New York Times, The Washington Post, and even The Wall Street Journal are full of stories about the Mueller investigation every day. Plus analysis of his family’s business dealings while he is in the White House.

    Now, the Republican Party may not impeach Trump, but if the Democrats win the Mid terms and flip the House and/or the Senate, then whats to stop THEM!?! Because they DO impeach Presidents. Though they may not send them to jail. Ignominy is a far worse punishment. Especially so for narcissists like Trump.

    You still running the anyone who disagrees with you should emigrate to New Zealand line of tripe?

  15. C@t:

    Trump has apparently been put on a diet because of poor health. So much for that report only months ago that proclaimed him to be in tip top shape.

  16. 2007 was a drovers dog election. Gillard, Beasley or any other serious ALP leader would have become ALP PM at that election.

  17. Tom the first and best

    It was and the effing Labor brains trust of the right still thought they needed to match tax cut promises that even at the time was recognised as dumb.

  20. The US Senate can only convict with a two thirds supermajority so if Republicans are going to ignore their constitutional duty to impeach in the lower house I’m not sure why they would suddenly reverse their position and convict in the other place.

  21. GG,
    You still running the anyone who disagrees with you should emigrate to New Zealand line of tripe?

    I feel that blowing up an aside, which I apologised for, into a major slight that you feel compelled to keep bringing up is a very poor reflection on you. But keep bringing it up as much as you want, I know that you are simply making a mountain out of a molehill.

  22. briefly:

    Yeah, by campaigning against the Labor Opposition the Gs have helped the Liberals to a relatively comfortable return victory. Incredibly, when the Liberals promised to ease gun laws, the Gs campaigned on some utterly spurious grounds against Labor.

    Given that the Greens were apparently almost invisible during the Tas campaign, it strikes me as unlikely that they had any impact whatsoever on the election result, positive or negative.

    To suggest that McKim’s Facebook post this morning is responsible for a result fully in line with practically all polling leading up to it is, well, just as dishonest as McKim’s original comment was.

  25. Asha Leu says:
    Saturday, March 3, 2018 at 9:59 pm

    When will the Gs start to campaign for Labor wins instead of Labor losses? When?

  26. Unfortunately, Greens are toxic to people Labor needs to win elections. ALP would have it easier to beat Liberals if it wasn’t for Greens. They are kind of like One Nation in terms of their toxicity, only on the left side of politics.

  27. paaptsef Saturday, March 3rd, 2018 – 6:50 pm Comment #2885

    Perhaps Mckim should have read that before he started spouting bullshit.

    paaptsef – He’s too busy being about the rudest ars#hole in Australian politics to read anything.

  28. Looks like a bad day for the Greens in Tasmania.

    Not really. The Greens got one of their signature policies adopted by a major party, and that major party’s primary vote went up by five points. And now that Tasmanian Labor has done well enough for that policy to be maintained, there is a good chance of the policy being implemented after the next election. Furthermore, picking this necessary fight with the pernicious and socially destructive gambling lobby has galvanized efforts to get poker machines removed from pubs and clubs in other states. Rebecca White’s admirably bold move has raised the bar on the issue. No longer will it be considered good enough to muck around with small-bore initiatives like $1 maximum bets and daily betting limits. From now on, the baseline position for the anti-pokies movement will be to ban poker machines from pubs and clubs and confine those infernal machines to casinos only. Rebecca White deserves immense credit for opening the Overton Window on this issue. The Greens deserve credit for developing the policy that Rebecca White adopted.

    The gambling industry was able to buy an election result in tiny Tasmania, but it will be much harder for them to do that in other states now that the stakes have been raised and the anti-pokies movement has been mobilised as never before.

    Federal Group and Woolworths have won this battle but they will lose the war.

  29. C@

    I like the ducks.

    I know where 4 of the mallard ones can be found in perfect condition(in a box now but originally over a bath).

    😀

  30. Nicholas says:
    Saturday, March 3, 2018 at 11:00 pm

    The anti-Labor plurality in Tasmania sits at about 2:1, in no small part thanks to the endless anti-Labor campaigns of the Gs. The Gs will now be hoping that Labor will make up some ground next time, but not enough to win; to make up just enough to be be susceptible to G-mail next time. Rly on it, the Gs will be acting in the next cycle with the intention of repressing and thwarting Labor, as they have always done.

    The result really is that Labor is too weak even to enact a modest reform to pokies laws in the smallest of the States. This is the fruit of G malevolence; of G plotting; of G campaigning on behalf of the Liberals.

  31. We often hear, quite rightly, criticism of doctors for not admitting unwell mental health patients who then commit suicide.
    What you don’t hear about are all the patients who are detained to a secure facility and still commit suicide in hospital. Here is yet another case at the new RAH. The mental health system in SA is a disgrace, as seen by the Oakden Report this week. We also routinely leave psychiatric patients in the Emergency departments at the RAH for more than 24 hours. That would be absolute torture for someone seriously mentally unwell.

    “SA Health is embroiled in a new controversy after a mental health patient took his own life in a supposedly secure area of the Royal Adelaide Hospital.

    The tragedy has been referred to the State Coroner, but questions are being raised about how such an incident could happen in the $2.3 billion state-of-the-art hospital, which is six months old tomorrow.”

  33. equal or not? Saturday, March 3rd, 2018 – 8:39 pm Comment #2946

    I know it’s not Merica, but in Tasmania it seems the Libs will be returned, just.

    A bit more than ‘just’ at 11:30 …

  34. Saturation bombing the media by poker machine interests worked in Tasmania. That lesson won’t be lost on the Miners, the fossil fuel interests and big businesses wanting to lay even less tax com the Federal election.

  35. “Was thinking same. 99 years old …”

    Given that he was anticipating God to roll down the curtain any time, call an end to the whole show, separate the sheep from the goats and establish his kingdom, I bet that was the last thing he was expecting

  36. C@tmomma @ #2971 Saturday, March 3rd, 2018 – 9:54 pm

    GG,
    You still running the anyone who disagrees with you should emigrate to New Zealand line of tripe?

    I feel that blowing up an aside, which I apologised for, into a major slight that you feel compelled to keep bringing up is a very poor reflection on you. But keep bringing it up as much as you want, I know that you are simply making a mountain out of a molehill.

    It’s actually a fair observation of a rather nasty character deficiency you display.

    What right have you to demand BB must depart PB because his jottings don’t meet with your approval?

  38. Asha Leu Saturday, March 3rd, 2018 – 9:59 pm Comment #2972

    briefly:

    Yeah, by campaigning against the Labor Opposition the Gs have helped the Liberals to a relatively comfortable return victory. Incredibly, when the Liberals promised to ease gun laws, the Gs campaigned on some utterly spurious grounds against Labor.

    Given that the Greens were apparently almost invisible during the Tas campaign, it strikes me as unlikely that they had any impact whatsoever on the election result, positive or negative.

    I saw Cassie O’Conner on TV during the week … I’d rate her a negative for the Greens.

  39. It’s hard to believe how low Barnaby can go!

    Why make this statement? If there is some doubt he is the father, why not have a DNA test?

    Or doesn’t Barnaby believe in the science?

  40. Barnaby’s Baby may not be Barnaby’s Baby?

    WTF is he doing publicly speculating about this like a wannabe extra from a Kath n Kim episode?

    Totally no class or respect. Hopefully Campion gets shot of his sorry ass and finds herself a man worthy of her AND her baby.

  41. Barnaby probably will need to wait until Little Sprog has arrived before doing the DNA st, ff. Now he is calling
    girlfriend a… I am not putting it in writing but you know what I mean.
    What a rotten man, and a lousy human being. I do not know what she is like, other than my observation of probably having a bastard antenna (my sister had one of those, if there was a bastard of a man within 50 kms , she would find him, and have her life fecked up by him. Now she has a nice bloke but his family is heartless and mean to her and are totally money orientated.) But the Campion and her baby deserve better than this.

  42. GG
    I was just going to say the same thing about Barnaby’s latest comment. He has reloaded the shotgun and taken aim at his other foot.

    And doesn’t he show a lot of class with this comment:
    “The backbencher said journalists did not check the apparent “fact” he was the baby’s father against the pair’s respective travel to see if Mr Joyce, 50, and Ms Campion, 33, were geographically together around the time of conception.”
    Was it an open relationship for Barnaby, traditional marriage campaigner? No suspicion on the mother now either.

    Of course all this entirely ignores the real issue, which is whether he had a romantic partner on the public payroll as a staffer? This time HE is the one raising private details of his relationship to cover his own position. Does he seriously think he can come back as leader? Are National voters that dumb?

  44. “WTF is he doing publicly speculating about this like a wannabe extra from a Kath n Kim episode?”

    Stupid and remarkably insensitive thing to do. And, he will rightly be pilloried for the pain and hurt this will inflict on Campion and his family.

    And…the timing?? Right on a day when the Libs win a state election, something really positive for them they should all be talking up tomorrow and Monday, along comes Barnyard to make sure they go straight into fwark up damage control mode and not even have 1 or 2 days of having not fwarked up.

  45. Rueters –

    “If the U.S. finally holds joint military exercises while keeping sanctions on the DPRK, the DPRK will counter the U.S. by its own mode of counteraction and the U.S. will be made to own all responsibilities for the ensuing consequences,” North Korea’s official KCNA news agency said in its commentary, saying the drills would harm reconciliation efforts on the peninsula.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles/north-korea-threatens-to-counter-u-s-over-military-drills-idUSKCN1GF0CT?il=0

    Mr Trump and President/Supreme Leader of NK Kim Jong-un back at it tonight … with exactly the predicted line from NK i.e. North Korea’s official KCNA news agency said in its commentary, saying the drills would harm reconciliation efforts on the peninsula.

  46. DB Cooper

    Joyce – just ‘attention seeking’.

    Him keeping quite on the back bench was never going to happen!

    I wonder what his ‘current partner’ makes of this …

  48. imacca

    “where it’s actually supposed to be freezing cold. In northernmost Greenland, it was 6 degrees Celsius above zero on Sunday. And it’s consistently been above zero for the last fortnight. “

    Winners and losers in global warning in the short term – the dairy farmers in s-e Greenland are thriving.

  49. Barney probably hates the Liebrals now. So he will do or say anything with no care of the fallout for his former buddies.

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