Essential Research and BludgerTrack deluxe

Introducing a bigger and better BludgerTrack. Also featured: a status quo result from Essential Research, at least so far as the major parties are concerned.

First up, BludgerTrack has proudly moved into the twenty-first century with a new fully interactive feature, offering hitherto hidden detail on state-level primary votes and the seat result probability estimates that are used to calculate the final result. Also included are the leadership rating trends, and there’s a facility for viewing raw opinion data throughout the current term.

The results as shown are updated to include the ReachTEL and Essential Research results, and the former has had a particularly big impact on voting intention, the primary numbers being even worse for the Coalition than the headline two-party result suggested. However, despite the 1% lurch to Labor on two-party preferred, there is little change to the seat projection, as the Coalition has had some stronger numbers lately from all-important Queensland, and Labor was largely punching into thin air with its gains in New South Wales and Victoria this week.

Then there’s the regular fortnightly result for Essential Research, which is notable in having both major parties at the low ebb of 35% on the primary vote, with the Coalition down one on a fortnight ago and Labor down two. This helps One Nation recover two points to 8%, with the Greens steady on 10%. Also unchanged is Labor’s two-party lead of 53-47.

Further questions relate mostly to the Barnaby Joyce situation, with a question conceived before his resignation on Friday finding 34% wanting him to leave parliament, 26% thinking he should resign as leader but stay in parliament, and only 19% thinking he should remain leader of the Nationals. Forty-four per cent expressed approval of “media reporting on politicians’ private affairs”, with 41% disapproving.

The poll also finds more respondents than not in favour not only of the ban on sex between ministers and their staff, but also on politicians having extra-marital sex altogether, and between managers and staff in the workplace. Twenty-two per cent even favoured a “ban on sex between workmates in general”, with 55% opposed. A rather particular question on health insurance policy finds 48% supporting removing the subsidy on private health insurance premiums and using the funds to include dental care in Medicare, with 32% opposed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,634 comments on “Essential Research and BludgerTrack deluxe”

Comments Page 32 of 73
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  2. Cash has withdrawn her accusations unreservedly but I didn’t hear an apology.

    Edit.

    I missed the start so she may have.

  6. Ven says:

    Julie Bishop defends omitting boy friend expenses from parliamentary register.
    But she said he is not her boyfriend,
    She also said he is not her partner
    Then why is she covering his expenses
    He is somebody who is “a special person in my life”
    What does that mean?

    It means she has added another spurious claim to the list…… Fu#ck Buddy

  8. He is somebody who is “a special person in my life”

    She should have just come right out and said, ‘A friend with benefits.’

  9. Katharine Murphy‏Verified account @murpharoo · 10m10 minutes ago

    Michaelia Cash has just withdrawn her comments “unreservedly” (while calling Doug Cameron a bully) #auspol @mmcgowan569

    Where/when was this?

  10. I caught part of a discussion of the conservative tradition in Australia on Tom Switzer’s show on Radio National this afternoon, with guests His Eminence Paul Kelly and Professor of Law at the University of Qld James Allan. Interesting, I might try and catch the rest of it later. Here, Paul Kelly was playing the role of the moderate/centrist, while Prof Allan was pretty much out there on the right.
    http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/betweenthelines/march-1st/9493292

    One take out for me (my opinion, not the guests) is that ‘conservatives’ (i.e. the hard right) regard Malcolm Turnbull as hopelessly ‘liberal’/left wing (e.g. he seems to believe climate change is real) in spite of all of the compromises he has made. Although he has either adopted, or acquiesces to, right wing positions, although any ‘liberal’ tendencies he may possess do not seem inform his Prime Ministership, the Right still hold him in disdain. All those compromises were for nothing.

  12. Mr Turnbull also seized on “disgraceful” comments by Labor senator Kim Carr in another estimates hearing, in which he referred to Liberal senator James Paterson as a member of the “Hitler Youth”.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/watch-cash-shielded-by-whiteboard-as-pm-refuses-to-condemn-minister-20180301-p4z2bx.html

    I agree with Turnbull. Absolutelly disgraceful.

    Here are just a few images I feel like posting for no particular reason.

  14. SK

    I once went on an onight walk in Kanangra Boyd with a descendant of Wentworth in the party. He was pretty up himself. Kept going on about how poorly we packed as showing off his ultra small and light backpack.

    He didnt stop asking to borrow things. From toilet paper to my bacon and eggs on a heavy based saucepan with cracked pepper and almost fresh basil.

    😀

  15. Ah, this…

    Cash said that hansard would reflect that she had withdrawn the remark.

    Well, not quite. Yesterday, Cash said “if anyone has been offended – I withdraw” which is not a total climb down, allowing Labor to kick the outrage into today’s cycle.

    Today, Cash does the mopping up job: “I’m more than happy to withdraw them unreservedly … I withdrew them yesterday and I will withdraw them unreservedly.”

    But Cash also pushed back against Labor’s Doug Cameron, claiming she made her comments in response to his “highly inappropriate comment”.

    Fact check: all Cameron did was ask if her new chief of staff came from another Liberal office.

  18. You have to admit Trumble’s ‘let’s fuck something new up to distract from last week’s fuck up’ strategy does work a treat.

    Barnaby who?

    Next week’s fuck up is bound to be a doozy!

    More dead cats for the PMO now!

  20. Question @ 3:59 – that is an outrageous pictorial comparison. Reinhard was competent. He’s also the guy that all the LNP Droogs aspire to. Don’t encourage them!

  21. James Allan is a “golden thread of the common law” type conservative, correct?

    An anti-Benthamite, claiming the sole purpose of the law is to protect private property?

    No role for the state in using the law to achieve social ends, beyond preventing provably damaging actions, which have been proved to be damaging in court?

    The kind that say anyone can be a brain surgeon, because who knows, they may be a brilliant brain surgeon, just give them a go!?

    They are a charming bunch, that lot.

  22. lizzie says:
    Thursday, March 1, 2018 at 3:56 pm
    Katharine Murphy‏Verified account @murpharoo · 10m10 minutes ago

    Michaelia Cash has just withdrawn her comments “unreservedly” (while calling Doug Cameron a bully) #auspol @mmcgowan569
    Where/when was this?

    Perhaps she was told to “unreservedly withdraw” after Turnbull spoke in parliament?

    LIVE
    Cash was bullied and provoked: PM
    3:23PMGREG BROWN
    PoliticsNow: Asked if he’ll make his minister apologise for her staffers threat, Turnbull says she has ‘unreservedly withdrawn’ them. (Oz headline)

  23. A_E,

    Just a few handsome chaps to help PBer’s decide if they prefer a left or right part to their hair. Makes all the difference.

  27. “A_E,

    Just a few handsome chaps to help PBer’s decide if they prefer a left or right part to their hair. Makes all the difference.”

    Well THAT’s just not going to help Potato Head, is it!

  28. Question says:
    Thursday, March 1, 2018 at 3:59 pm

    Here are just a few images I feel like posting for no particular reason.

    Didn’t end well for Reinhard Heydrich, did it?

  29. I never heard the “A” word, she just said she withdrew her comments unreservedly!

    Correct.

    And then qualified the withdrawal.

    Coz it’s all Labor’s fault.

  30. Barney & ratsak

    What a bloody farce.
    (There’s a rumour that Cash is for the highjump. I don’t believe it, but would love it to be true)

  32. CTar1 says:
    Thursday, March 1, 2018 at 4:00 pm

    I once went on an onight walk in Kanangra Boyd with a descendant of Wentworth in the party. He was pretty up himself. Kept going on about how poorly we packed as showing off his ultra small and light backpack.

    He didnt stop asking to borrow things. From toilet paper to my bacon and eggs on a heavy based saucepan with cracked pepper and almost fresh basil.

    ______________________________

    For shame. I am a devotee of ultra light bushwalking, a necessity if you want to enjoy your bushwalk. That’s the pack, not me, I hasten to add!

    I would be devastated if I had to borrow from anyone else. The whole point is to be totally self-sufficient, and enjoy the walk.

  33. don
    Thursday, March 1, 2018 at 4:16 pm

    Didn’t end well for Reinhard Heydrich, did it?

    The ‘terrorists’ won that one.

  35. Question – I reckon that Dutton did think he had a Reinhard in Quadbike …

    This is s scary thought. Imagine someone with the malice of this mob, only competent…

  39. don says: Thursday, March 1, 2018 at 4:16 pm

    Question says:
    Thursday, March 1, 2018 at 3:59 pm

    Here are just a few images I feel like posting for no particular reason.

    Didn’t end well for Reinhard Heydrich, did it?

    ***********************************************

    Nor, very sadly, for the people in the village of Lidice

  40. Watching Senator Cameron grilling some poor public servant about an IT project that is over time, over budget and no where near completion with no clear goals and unhappy end users.

    The new computer system runs like a dog ie too slow, unwieldy
    The public servant being grilled has no understanding of the operation of the system

    Doug Cameron is doing Simon Birmingham’s department
    S L O W L Y

    Public servant is lying when he says DTA Digital Transformation Agency has not provided advice in writing

    Clearly the end users in the states and Canberra are fighting about the system goals and operational expectations

    There will be volume issues adding extra 350,000 apprentices into the program

  41. Cash-and-Carry is a senator. That means she is disposable (unlike lower house MPs who could force a by-election). Malcolm also knows there is likely to be a big stink when the police finish their investigation. Oh, and she trashes the brand. So she probably is for the high-jump.

  42. Anton,

    I couldn’t believe it when Turnbull promoted Cash in December, when she was well and truly under a cloud. I probably made some comment about his judgement at the time.

  43. From what I recall of your comments at the time concerning Gilderoy Lockhart’s promotion of Cash – it was something along the lines of ‘Brilliant. This totally resets the political narrative and that Bill Shorten is surely finished’ or something like that. No?

  44. antonbruckner11 @ #1591 Thursday, March 1st, 2018 – 3:34 pm

    Cash-and-Carry is a senator. That means she is disposable (unlike lower house MPs who could force a by-election). Malcolm also knows there is likely to be a big stink when the police finish their investigation. Oh, and she trashes the brand. So she probably is for the high-jump.

    Cage rather than high jump perhaps? defanging?

  46. sacreblue!

    I felt dirty, but I contended Labor after 12 years needed a stint on the left of the speaker to clean out the filth.

    And Debnam was such an incompetent he wasn’t likely to last more than a term.

    I don’t think history judges either contention unfavourably.

  47. A_E

    Correct.

    I often wake in the middle of the night, and peer out of the darkness waiting for the new dawn. It’s always there, just over the horizon.

    And then these bloody psychotic monkeys start doing psychedelic dance routines, and I wake up, and peer out of the darkness waiting for the new dawn…

  48. The problem with axing Cash now is that Keenan has been implicated.

    By doubling down and backing Cash Trumble has effectively said she can’t be sacked for that.

    So it can only be for fucking up the witch hunt.

    Idiot would have made his life a lot easier if he’d just called her into the office yesterday arvo and stuck a piece of paper under her nose to sign.

  49. These photos were titled ‘Bring out the white curtain’ by ABC politics:

    Isn’t that what they do before they shoot a wounded horse?

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