Ring in the new year with two months of accumulated news concerning preselections for the next federal election – not counting matters arising from Section 44, which will be dealt with in a separate post during the January lull in opinion poll news.
• After falling short in the Bennelong by-election, Kristina Keneally’s most immediate pathway to federal parliament is the Senate vacancy created by the resignation of Sam Dastyari. However, The Australian reports the position is being eyed by Tony Sheldon, national secretary of the Transport Workers Union, and Tara Moriarty, state secretary of United Voice – either in opposition to Keneally or in her absence, since it is not clear she would not prefer to await a lower house berth. The Canberra Times reports the looming creation of a third electorate for the Australian Capital Territory could present such an opportunity. Other possibilities mentioned for the new seat are Thomas McMahon, economic adviser to Bill Shorten; Taimus Werner-Gibbings, chief-of-staff to Tasmanian Senator Lisa Singh; Jacob Ingram, 23-year-old staffer to Chief Minister Andrew Barr; Jacob White, staffer to Fenner MP and Shadow Assistant Trade Minister Andrew Leigh; and Kim Fischer, former territory ministerial staffer and current communications consultant.
• Another soon-to-be-created seat has been central to factional convulsions in the Victorian ALP in recent months. As in the ACT, population growth has entitled Victoria to an extra seat, which is expected to be established in Melbourne’s booming and strongly Labor-voting north-east. The Construction Mining Forestry and Energy Union wants it to go to Jane Garrett, who recently failed in a bid to move from her state seat of Brunswick to the Legislative Council after losing a Left faction ballot. Garrett feared Brunswick would be lost to the Greens, in part because of the efforts of the United Firefighters Union, whose dispute with Garrett over a pay deal caused her resignation as Emergency Services Minister in 2016. In tandem with other “industrial Left” unions, the CFMEU has walked out of the Left, which is dominated by Senator Kim Carr, and sought an alliance with the Right, which looks likely to proceed with the blessing of Bill Shorten. This will mean an end to the long-standing “stability pact” between the Carr forces and the Right, which has protected members including Jenny Macklin in Jagajaga and Andrew Giles in Scullin. However, Shorten insists he will ensure no sitting members are threatened.
• With George Brandis resigning from his Queensland Senate seat to take up the popular posting of high commissioner in London, The Australian reports a big field of potential successors includes three names from state politics: Scott Emerson, the former Shadow Treasurer who lost his seat of Maiwar to the Greens; John-Paul Langbroek, a former Opposition Leader who remains the state member for Surfers Paradise, but was unsuccessful in the post-election leadership vote; and Lawrence Springborg, repeatedly unsuccessful state Opposition Leader who did not contest the election in November (who would presumably faces a difficulty in being from the Nationals). Also in the mix are Joanna Lindgren, who had an earlier stint in the Senate when she filled Brett Mason’s vacancy in May 2015, but was unsuccessful as the sixth candidate on the Liberal National Party ticket in 2016; Teresa Harding, director of the Queensland government’s open data policy and twice unsuccessful candidate for Blair; and Amanda Stoker, a barrister.
• Surf Coast councillor Libby Coker has again been preselected as Labor’s candidate for the Victorian seat of Corangamite, after winning a local party vote over Geelong businesswoman Diana Taylor by 116 votes to 39. Coker ran unsuccessfully in 2016 against Sarah Henderson, who gained the seat for the Liberals in 2013.
• Mehreen Faruqi, a state upper house member, was preselected to lead the Greens’ New South Wales ticket in late November, winning an online vote of party members by a margin variously identified as 1301 to 843, and 1032 to 742. The preselection took place against a backdrop of conflict between the more moderate environmentalist tendency associated with the parliamentary leadership and Rhiannon’s hard left base in New South Wales. Anne Davies of The Guardian observes that Rhiannon will face “intense pressure to step down early”, so Faruqi can fill her vacancy and raise her profile ahead of the election.
Labor has completed preselections for the brace of Liberal-held seats where it is now reckoned to be competitive in Western Australia, after the resurgence in its fortunes in the state – all of which have gone to women:
• Hannah Beazley, policy adviser to Mark McGowan and daughter of Kim Beazley, will run against Steve Irons in Swan, which her father held from 1980 to 1996 before seeking a safer refuge in Brand. Hannah Beazley ran unsuccessfully for the state seat of Riverton in 2013.
• Lauren Palmer of the Maritime Union of Australia has been selected to run against Ken Wyatt in Hasluck, winning out over the Left-backed Bill Leadbetter, a history lecturer who ran in the seat in 2016, and very briefly served in the state upper house earlier this year. This comes after the MUA threw its lot in with the now dominant Right (“Progressive Labor”) faction in pursuit of its oft-thwarted ambitions to establish a parliamentary power base, together with the Construction Forestry Mining and Energy Union.
• Decorated police superintendent and Left faction member Kim Travers has been chosen to run against newly anointed Attorney-General Christian Porter in Pearce. Sarah Martin of The West Australian reported Labor’s administrative committee knocked back a nomination from Ann O’Neill, a campaigner against domestic violence whose estranged husband shot her and murdered her two children in 1994, who had not been a party member for the required period and was not granted a waiver.
• A little further up the pendulum, Melita Markey, chief executive of the Asbestos Diseases Society, will run against Michael Keenan in Stirling, and Melissa Teede, former head of the Peel Development Commission, will run against Andrew Hastie in Canning.
zoomster
It seems to me that the”managers” were at fault.
Kezza2
Yeah in Turnbull and Liberal Land, white offenders need understanding and support. Black offenders not so much.
Another mild sunny Day here in Melbourne. Just how I like it!!
weatheronPB#
Lizzie
I have relative in the insurance industry. Unsurprisingly, Climate change factors very much in their decision making on policies and risks these days.
Bucketing down here on the central Coast of NSW. But we’re still going to the Art Gallery to see the Rembrandts and to the Sydney International Tennis afterwards. It’s supposed to be relatively clear by then. So see you when I’m sitting in the stands with my lappy, keeping an eye on PB too. 🙂
Zoomster, I believe harrassment has an even lower hurdle. I seem to recall when we had an training session on the topic at work a few years back, it was predicated on the perception of the person being harassed.
The point was you had to be on your best behaviour all the time and think how your actions were perceived by the people around you.
I also seem to recall, your definition above would still be described as harrassment, by the fact that some one asked you to stop you were already guilty of harassing someone. Harassment was harassment and was not to be tolerated at all.
Of course, one of the reasons you can compare Trump with Obama is that Obama lacked the experience to deal with Washington politics. Both Trump and Obama boasted that they were outsiders.
It’s an argument for professional politicians.
Based on what the federal govt has achieved so far, it appears as if the University funding is one area that they will concentrate on this year. To date, they have hit a roadblock in this area.
Some of Their to do list so far that has been completed
Abolish carbon price
Car manufacturing industry gone
Medibank private sold off
Penalty rates cut
ROC and ABCC re established
Bastardised the NBN
And as pointed out, do their best to get a Vic Liberal govt back in So that they can finally give infrastructure dollars to get the EastWest link back on track
I am going to wait until the police investigate the complaints against McLachlan before I jump to conclusions.
C@t
Have fun!
zoomster says: Tuesday, January 9, 2018 at 8:21 am
Of course, one of the reasons you can compare Trump with Obama is that Obama lacked the experience to deal with Washington politics. Both Trump and Obama boasted that they were outsiders.
It’s an argument for professional politicians.
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Most candidates for President seemed to have had military service and/or held some sort of public office. Neither Trump or Obama had a military background and Obama – unlike Trump – did hold public office as Illinois State Senator (1996-2004 ) and U.S. Senator ( 2005 to 2008 ) before becoming President
https://classroom.synonym.com/political-offices-barack-obama-in-10265.html
Someone at Murdoch’s Oz has a case of very bad timing. While we have been sweltering through record high temperatures, this headline is accompanied by a picture of snowfall.
I’m starting to think that some of the staff at the Oz just don’t have their hearts in writing the trash that is demanded of them on a daily basis. But, hey, we need the money.
victoria @ #2819 Tuesday, January 9th, 2018 – 8:26 am
I am nothing if not stoic. 😉
Anyway, we pre-bought the tickets so we have to go!
zoomster
And George Dubya an argument against “professionals” .
Puffy
I watched 7.30 last night, and it seems to me that the “bosses” are mostly concerned with the Show and its profits, and were in awe of their Star. I’m not defending or accusing, but I don’t think that the situation was handled well.
The NSW LIberals are eating their own in public:
Prominent Liberal ministers have launched a stinging attack on one of their own – the head of the NSW Young Liberals, Harry Stutchbury – over his stance on housing affordability.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/a-private-school-boy-liberal-ministers-attack-nsw-young-liberals-president-over-housing-affordability-20180108-h0ewvq.html
Lol. ‘A Private School Boy from Sydney’s Eastern Suburbs’. Now, where did the Prime Minister go to school again? Where does he live now? 🙂
I wonder how long it will be until someone at the 7 Network makes the connection between the ABC’s hitherto baffling decision to sell their highest rating drama program Dr Blake, mid-production, to said network, and the current matter involving it’s star, Craig McLachlan, under investigation as a result of a story authored by the self-same ABC (with Fairfax help)?
I also wonder how long it will take the 7 Network to pick up the phone and dial it’s lawyers?
This reeks of too-clever-by-half insider dealing, with the obvious inference being that ABC News gave ABC Production a very large heads-up.
PuffyTMD @ #2827 Tuesday, January 9th, 2018 – 7:04 am
Happy Birthday indeed.
Beneath the photo of Stephen are a couple of interesting items.
In particular, the “Apparatus and Method for Remotely Monitoring and Altering Brain Waves” caught my attention..
At last, my mind can be at rest, now that the secret of why ordinary folk vote against their own best interests is in the open.
I am now working on a “Faraday Cage” for insomniacs complete with foil encased sleep masks for users.
Be early, shares in the new age, innovative, space age company, “Guaranteed by the Federal Minister for Clever Stuff”, will be going first to all the “Mums and Dads” out there, bursting with zeal to be among the first to get into Australia’s space development and support industries.
Also in near complete development is my latest “Fool Foil Chapeau” for the discerning lady and gentleman about town.
Apply now, send cash direct to KayJay enterprises NOW.
💲💸💵 ☕
I’ll take a dozen, Kay Jay. Anything to stop these voices inside my head.
poroti says: Tuesday, January 9, 2018 at 8:38 am
zoomster
It’s an argument for professional politicians.
And George Dubya an argument against “professionals” .
*****************************************************************************
Trump genius? He ranks lowest among last 15
President Donald Trump—who boasted over the weekend that his success in life was a result of “being, like really smart”—communicates at the lowest grade level of the last 15 presidents, according to a new analysis of the speech patterns of presidents going back to Herbert Hoover.
The analysis assessed the first 30,000 words each president spoke in office, and ranked them on the Flesch-Kincaid grade level scale and more than two dozen other common tests analyzing English language difficulty levels. Trump clocked in around mid-fourth grade, the worst since Truman, who spoke at nearly a sixth-grade level.
At the top of the list were Hoover and Jimmy Carter, who were basically at an 11th-grade level, and President Barack Obama, in third place with a high ninth-grade level of communicating with the American people.
The words were run through a variety of lexicological analyses, besides the Flesch-Kincaid, and the results were the same. In every one, Trump came in dead last.
“By every metric and methodology tested, Donald Trump’s vocabulary and grammatical structure is significantly more simple, and less diverse, than any President since Herbert Hoover, when measuring “off-script” words, that is, words far less likely to have been written in advance for the speaker,” Factba.se CEO Bill Frischling wrote. “The gap between Trump and the next closest president … is larger than any other gap using Flesch-Kincaid. Statistically speaking, there is a significant gap.”
https://www.rawstory.com/2018/01/trump-genius-he-ranks-lowest-among-last-15/
Bushfire. Bill @ #2866 Tuesday, January 9th, 2018 – 8:47 am
Thank you. You will not regret your choice.
Tell your friends now, immediately prior to moving house and entering the accompanying (supplied with every device) “purchasers protection plan”, which is modeled on the US “Witness Protection” system.
Au revoir, friends and neighbours. Cleanup day chez Kayjay – includes the yard of the house opposite.
☮☕
Puffy, I agree on presumption of innocence, but the decision by the ABC to sell Dr Blake to Seven had no explanation until now.
I would have thought that if there is any evidence of foreknowledge on the part of the ABC Seven might have a case alleging bad faith negotiations. Whether they could get it to stick is another matter.
Get ready for more dog whistling and assorted political stunts.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/victorian-opposition-leader-matthew-guy-seeks-federal-alliance-to-tackle-gang-crime/news-story/ba2e06a69ca57c6d1cb21e0ac9d96824
KayJay
I’ll have two of your patented gizmos. Which Nigerian bank would you like me to send the money to ?
Any chance someone can point me to numbers for the ‘Crime wave’?
Crimes, and violent crimes per capita for the suburbs in question, compared to benchmarks of suburbs elsewhere with similar levels of poverty, and compared to the same suburbs ‘before the crime wave’.
poroti
The question ought to be why isn’t Turnbull who made his concerns Victorian gang violence a priority on News years etc, reached out to our current Premier?
This whole set up stinks to high heaven
Or alternatively why doesn’t Matthew Guy who is OL, reach out to our Premier to attempt to solve this “crisis” for the benefit of Victorians.
This whole shit show gives me the pips
Or alternatively, why doesn’t Matthew Guy reach out to his Mafia contacts.
As an older, and more established gang with the full backing of the Italian Mafia, one would assume they would be capable of running the newer, less established Sudanese Gang out of town.
A few horses heads in people’s beds and it’s problem solved.
Voice Endeavour
Yep. Indeed!!
poroti @ #2870 Tuesday, January 9th, 2018 – 4:59 am
That just highlights the political nature of the issue.
The fed Gov happily talks to the State Op but not the State Gov. 🙁
Political analyst Bill Palmer is of the opinion that the Mueller investigations are perhaps further along with the news today of Trump giving an interview to Robert Mueller
Several major news outlets are reporting today that Mueller has sought an interview with Donald Trump himself, and that Trump has tentatively agreed. The interview is supposed to take place within the next few weeks
In these kinds of multi-layered criminal scandals, investigators don’t want to interview the “big dog” or kingpin until the very end. By that time they want to already have enough evidence in hand to know for certain if the kingpin is telling the truth or lying. Mueller’s desire to interview Trump within the next few weeks means that he’s already finished with the remaining underlings; he’s gotten what he needs to get from them in order to take his big swing at the big dog.
poroti @ #2871 Tuesday, January 9th, 2018 – 9:02 am
👍👍
This obsession with quoting left-aligned “news” sources citing Trump’s lack of intelligence, mental capacities, emotional immaturity etc. is as pointless as it is futile.
Yanks just LOVE metrics and formulas provided by partisan outlets “proving” one bad thing or another about their political opponents. We’ve had polls (mostly wrong), learned articles, insider gossip and all the rest. It’s unhealthy.
Trump is not going to be deposed as a result of them. The 25th Amendment won’t be invoked (ultimately it involves a 2/3rds congressional majority). There’ll be no impeachment that sticks (he then has to be tried by the Senate).
We all know he’s a narcissistic man-child. He’ll probably be a oncer, failing to secure a second term. Isn’t that enough?
He won the election, however dubiously. This needs to be accepted and worked with.
BB
No. If he is a Bona fide Russian Asset. He really needs to go
It’s *proving* it that matters, Vic.
BB
Of course. But at same time my view is that Trump knows his hands are now tied therefore he can’t do what he had intended. That is a start I guess.
An indication that Romney will run for Hatch’s Senate seat?
And I would suggest that this isn’t purely A Russian story.
China
Israel
Turkey
Iran
Saudi Arabia
Have their part to play in this imbroglio
vic:
I’m still thinking it’s very likely Trump will be brought down by something else, ie in the course of Mueller’s investigation he uncovers money laundering or similar and that’s what brings Trump down.
Fess
Agreed. just like they got Capone on his taxes
An excellent example of the double standards on display from Truffles, dutton and Guy.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/jan/09/victorias-gang-crisis-and-how-the-election-fuels-a-double-standard-on
Poroti
Precisely the point!
Confessions says: Tuesday, January 9, 2018 at 9:28 am
vic:
I’m still thinking it’s very likely Trump will be brought down by something else, ie in the course of Mueller’s investigation he uncovers money laundering or similar and that’s what brings Trump down.
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I agree …… its the RICO charges – money laundering, tax evasion, mob association etc etc that will bring down all those in the Trump family and associates
but to me there is a secondary issue – in that the possibility exists that US citizens conspired/colluded with foreign agents to manipulate/corrupt the US Voting system to install a person fraudulently – and if so – it needs to act criminal proceedings against those citizens ……. and also to FIX the voting *system* so it cannot happen again
Absorbing thread by this legal eagle – 30 tweets in total.
https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/950404182061838336
Gotta run some errands
vic
Which was?
phoenixRed:
Or obstruction of justice.
The usual paywall leaping trick doesn’t work for this article …
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/the-times/global-cooling-a-reality-but-technology-will-help-earth-survive/news-story/aa8ad1725f08ee44d4b2e71af07e6fe8
If anyone has a paper copy of the Australian – and is willing to admit to it – can they the post a quick summary of the “technology” (referred to in the headline) that is supposed to save the earth from global cooling?
P1:
not for me either.
I got the start only of the article from the Times:
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/global-cooling-is-not-worth-shivering-about-pmdn8gp07
matt ridley
January 8 2018, 12:01am, The Times
Global cooling is not worth shivering about
Matt Ridley
The Earth is very slowly slipping back into a proper ice age but technology should enable civilisation to survive it
Record cold in America has brought temperatures as low as minus 44C in North Dakota, frozen sharks in Massachusetts and iguanas falling from trees in Florida. Al Gore blames global warming, citing one scientist to the effect that this is “exactly what we should expect from the climate crisis”. Others beg to differ: Kevin Trenberth, of America’s National Centre for Atmospheric Research, insists that “winter storms are a manifestation of winter, not climate change”.
New York has been hit by some of its coldest temperatures on record
New York has been hit by some of its coldest temperatures on record
Nino Marcutti/Alamy
Forty-five years ago a run of cold winters caused a “global cooling” scare. “A global deterioration of the climate, by order of magnitude larger than any hitherto experienced by civilised mankind, is a very real possibility and indeed may be due very soon,” read a letter to President Nixon in 1972…
You can get an idea of what he is on about from this older article:
https://www.thegwpf.org/matt-ridley-global-warming-versus-global-greening/
After covering global warming debates as a journalist on and off for almost 30 years, with initial credulity, then growing skepticism, I have come to the conclusion that the risk of dangerous global warming, now and in the future, has been greatly exaggerated while the policies enacted to mitigate the risk have done more harm than good, both economically and environmentally, and will continue to do so.
And I am treated as some kind of pariah for coming to this conclusion.
Why do I think the risk from global warming is being exaggerated? For four principal reasons.
1. All environmental predictions of doom always are;
2. the models have been consistently wrong for more than 30 years;
3. the best evidence indicates that climate sensitivity is relatively low;
4. the climate science establishment has a vested interest in alarm.
Global greening
I will come to those four points in a moment. But first I want to talk about global greening, the gradual, but large, increase in green vegetation on the planet.
I think this is one of the most momentous discoveries of recent years and one that transforms the scientific background to climate policy, though you would never know it from the way it has been reported. And it is a story in which I have been both vilified and vindicated.
The technology is coal 😉