With last week’s results from Newspoll and Essential Research added to the mix, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate records a solid shift back to the Coalition after a recent Labor blowout, converting into a 0.6% increase on two-party preferred and four on the seat projection. The Coalition is up even more on the primary vote, although this is basically at the expense of One Nation (see the sidebar for full results). Furthermore, The Australian published the Newspoll quarterly state breakdowns for October to December this week, which is the last polling data we will get until well into January, and this too has been added to the mix.
I’ve been noting in recent weeks that BludgerTrack’s readings for Western Australia and especially Queensland were looking off beam, and anticipated that the long-awaited addition of Newspoll data would ameliorate this. However, the Newspoll result backed up the picture of a huge swing to Labor in Queensland, of 9%, resulting in a two-party lead of 55-45. Labor’s lead in Queensland has nonetheless narrowed in BludgerTrack this week, reducing their projected seat gain from an entirely implausible 16 seats to a still rather unlikely 11, but this is as much to do with more normal-looking numbers from Essential over the past two weeks than Newspoll.
A very likely problem here is that both Newspoll and BludgerTrack are assuming preferences will behave as they did in 2016, which means a roughly even split of preferences from One Nation. The Queensland state election result suggests the support One Nation has built since comes largely from former Coalition voters, resulting in a stronger flow of preferences to them – of about 65%, in the case of the state election. In the new year, I will begin calculating preferences by splitting the difference between 2016 election flows and a trend measure of respondent-allocated preferences (which have been leaning too far the other way). This will result in more conservative readings of Labor’s two-party support.
In addition to the five seat shift to the Coalition in Queensland, BludgerTrack has the Coalition up a seat in New South Wales – but down two in Western Australia, where the Newspoll numbers (again with some help from a more normal-looking result from Essential Research) have taken the wind out of an outlier result from the state in the Ipsos poll a fortnight ago.
The leadership rating trends have been updated with the latest Newspoll results, producing a slight drop in both leaders’ net approval ratings. However, this too suffers a deficiency to which I will make an overdue correction in the new year, namely that no account is made for the idiosyncrasies of particular pollsters – such as lower approval and higher disapproval ratings from Newspoll, and lower uncommitted ratings from Ipsos. This means changes from week to week often reflect the specific pollsters that have published results, as much as meaningful change in the numbers.
No. 10 is a toss up. That a candidate like Trump was able to win the party nomination is testament to where the Republicans are as a party.
Barney in Go Dau says:
Monday, January 1, 2018 at 7:52 pm
Direct election basically guarantees the HoS would be a major Party candidate or someone of significant individual wealth.
Or GetUp! could propose Sally McManus, who, with the support of unions and GetUp! community networks, would almost certainly defeat any plutocrat and absolutely smash the generic Lib.
briefly @ #3099 Monday, January 1st, 2018 – 3:57 pm
And you just politicise the position, when there is no need or benefit in doing so.
I agree with JW, do we want a republic yes or no. Then go on to how h-o-s selected.
Don’t think we want the US system that can produce a Trump with that much power.
Also, a candidate has to come up with so much money most Australians would be excluded unless backed by big business, unions or political parties.
Barney
Most presidencies are political. Its human nature. Even in the minimalist model people were talking about “running for President”
guytaur @ #3067 Monday, January 1st, 2018 – 7:25 pm
Thought so. Thanks for that.
Barney in Go Dau says:
Monday, January 1, 2018 at 7:49 pm
briefly @ #3075 Monday, January 1st, 2018 – 3:32 pm
…
So we should inquire of the voters just what it is that they would support…and then we should do what they want. It will be their Republic, all said and done.
…
No, we should educate the voters about potential options first.
I reckon voters have a sound understanding of democracy, acquired both from first principles and repeated real life practice. Voters vote…freely, equally, secretly and together…
Mr Ed
No one has been talking about having a US style executive President. All including me have been saying we want to explicitly avoid that.
A 2/3 rds majority of a joint sitting results in a consensus rather than a political presidency. Certainly a major reason for me supporting the model.
OC
Thats BS.
There was 2/3rds majority for marriage equality in parliament.
No lack of politics.
Barney in Go Dau says:
Monday, January 1, 2018 at 7:59 pm
briefly @ #3099 Monday, January 1st, 2018 – 3:57 pm
Barney in Go Dau says:
Monday, January 1, 2018 at 7:52 pm
Direct election basically guarantees the HoS would be a major Party candidate or someone of significant individual wealth.
Or GetUp! could propose Sally McManus, who, with the support of unions and GetUp! community networks, would almost certainly defeat any plutocrat and absolutely smash the generic Lib.
And you just politicise the position, when there is no need or benefit in doing so.
‘Tis not I that would politicise the office. It is inherently political. This property cannot be willed away. Since it is implicitly political, the occupant should be democratically accountable.
briefly
Yes exactly.
You only have to see the political comments on twitter during the S44 debate on should the GG intervene and sack the government?
Its in his power to do so. However unlikely given the political make up of todays way of appointing the office.
Oakeshott Country says:
Monday, January 1, 2018 at 8:03 pm
A 2/3 rds majority of a joint sitting results in a consensus rather than a political presidency. Certainly a major reason for me supporting the model.
The Parliament would be conferring better terms of office on the unelected HoS than on the elected PM. This would very soon result in disaster. The HoS will have to have terms of office that are in every respect inferior to those of the PM and the House.
guytaur @ #3102 Monday, January 1st, 2018 – 4:00 pm
No, they weren’t because the selection would be made by the Parliament.
No one gets to put their name down and run, suitable person would be chosen and confirmed by the Parliament.
’75 aside, how often does the GG get involved in politics?
briefly @ #3104 Monday, January 1st, 2018 – 4:02 pm
Scared of a little education?
Guytaur
And of course we all agree it would have been wrong for him to have done that don’t we?
Barney in Go Dau says:
Monday, January 1, 2018 at 8:11 pm
briefly @ #3104 Monday, January 1st, 2018 – 4:02 pm
Barney in Go Dau says:
Monday, January 1, 2018 at 7:49 pm
briefly @ #3075 Monday, January 1st, 2018 – 3:32 pm
…
So we should inquire of the voters just what it is that they would support…and then we should do what they want. It will be their Republic, all said and done.
…
No, we should educate the voters about potential options first.
I reckon voters have a sound understanding of democracy, acquired both from first principles and repeated real life practice. Voters vote…freely, equally, secretly and together…
Scared of a little education?
I don’t presume that voters are ignorant or that they cannot make their own choices. If I believed that, I would have to give up being a democrat.
Barney
The GG is involved in politics often. An appointee who is supposed to consult with the PM and relay his political intentions to the Queen.
The GG can give political advice in private. Just not in public. Just like the Queen.
The role is political. Its a myth that its not.
We trust that the person appointed by the PM will abide by convention. We have no bulwark against another Sir John Kerr.
That trust comes from doing a Paul Keating and backing the horse called self interest. We found out with Sir John that he perceived his self interest differently to others.
Imagine what a target for an intelligence operation.
For anyone interested in going to the horse’s mouth (so to speak), Kim’s utterances and various trivia are available at the DPRK official media website. The speech today from which the above quote was taken is at http://kcna.kp/kcna.user.article.retrieveNewsViewInfoList.kcmsf
Interestingly, the speech betrays a sense of the North’s vulnerability and repeats the long standing mantra of both North and South seeking better relations. The US is singled out as a threat and other countries (e.g. Japan) are not mentioned. Presumably trump will fire back a tweet on the subject.
JW
We can agree. However will courts?
briefly @ #3114 Monday, January 1st, 2018 – 4:13 pm
Considering the time that has passed since the issue was last comprehensively looked at, some would have barely been born, I think it would be fair and proper to give them the arguments for them to consider.
But then I don’t presume that people magically absorb knowledge. 🙂
Qldaah: Ambassador to US Joe Hockey personally steered Australia’s dealings with FBI on revelations of Russian hacking #uspoli #auspol smh.com.au/federal-politi…
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/joe-hockey-discussed-downers-russia-revelations-with-fbi-20180101-h0c58c.html
Have we got any evidence that a GG since Kerr has taken a partisan political role?
Barney in Go Dau @ #3091 Monday, January 1st, 2018 – 7:49 pm
Very Whitlamesque! And correct.
Oakeshott Country @ #3120 Monday, January 1st, 2018 – 8:21 pm
Do guytaur’s fevered imaginings count?
Turnbull says he don’t mind being with Trump a rich man will sit with anothe rich man.
guytaur @ #3115 Monday, January 1st, 2018 – 4:13 pm
Where have they influenced policy?
Mark Latham:
Discuss.
William Bowe @ #3125 Monday, January 1st, 2018 – 4:24 pm
Can I swear?
OC
Yes. Lots of GG’s have commented on issues of the day.
They do it at a level on issues they think won’t bring them into the political fray of the day.
However they do comment. Even if its just turning up to support a charity. Their choice of which charity they turn up to is in itself political commentary.
Just like with anyone else.
No human is apolitical. Politics is inherent in human nature.
What we don’t have is active intervention in the governance of the day in a transparent way.
What advice a PM gets from a GG on military matters as an e.g. I have no idea. All the conversations are private not transparent.
We just assume the role is apolitical. Political does not have to be sacking a government after all.
Barney
We have no idea. The whole system is opaque.
The appointment is political. Its at the personal choice of the PM of the day.
guytaur @ #3127 Monday, January 1st, 2018 – 8:27 pm
You are correct. You have no idea.
guytaur @ #3128 Monday, January 1st, 2018 – 4:28 pm
I’m sorry, but you are tilting at windmills. 🙂
As for fevered imaginings.
I have never imagined Alexander Downer as being the intelligence source for the FBI before the New York Times broke the story.
ThatLondon High Commission position is meant to be apolitical.
Oakeshott Country says:
Monday, January 1, 2018 at 8:21 pm
Have we got any evidence that a GG since Kerr has taken a partisan political role?
The Senate has not withheld Supply. It is the possibility of irreconcilable dispute between the House and the Senate that gives rise to possible vice-regal intervention. The power of the Senate should also be amended.
Some people here keep suggesting Turnbull is using the republic as a distraction. He didn’t bring it up, Keating did. While Republicans wedge themselves on the model, the L-NP wedge themselves on the very subject.
Turnbull did get sucked into answering a hypothetical question about what he plans to do when the Queen dies/retires, but unless he set up the question, he can’t have scripted it. Far more likely he went off script, and momentarily forgot the nut jobs and Nats own him.
The correct answer was “The Queen has good health and many more years to serve”.
William Bowe says:
Monday, January 1, 2018 at 8:24 pm
Mark Latham:
Gough, a tolerant man, would have loved Milo.
Discuss.
Gough was famously wrong about Latham, and Latham is notoriously wrong about Gough.
Question
Yes some excellent trolling of the PM by Keating.
Qldaah: Dear America,
Now, please don’t go and idolise Joe Hockey. He’s our failed treasurer. Google ‘Joe Hockey 2014 budget’. #uspoli #auspol
Barney in Go Dau says:
Monday, January 1, 2018 at 8:20 pm
briefly @ #3114 Monday, January 1st, 2018 – 4:13 pm
…
Scared of a little education?
I don’t presume that voters are ignorant or that they cannot make their own choices. If I believed that, I would have to give up being a democrat.
Considering the time that has passed since the issue was last comprehensively looked at, some would have barely been born, I think it would be fair and proper to give them the arguments for them to consider.
But then I don’t presume that people magically absorb knowledge.
You’re certainly highly resistant to argument – even immune to new ideas. But never fear, that will not deter the democratic quest.
Barney in Go Dau @ #3112 Monday, January 1st, 2018 – 8:11 pm
Briefly used to mainly write sensible stuff, but since he appears to have got traumatised by S44i, it is getting hard to distinguish what he writes from some of guytaur’s batty stuff.
I assume Latham wasn’t quite the Milo type tosser he is today when he was at Gough’s knee.
guytaur @ #3131 Monday, January 1st, 2018 – 4:30 pm
Apolitical?
When was the last time a career foreign affairs public servant was appointed to London?
bemused
Another mental health sledge with guytaur’s batty stuff.
Disagree but calling it batty does not make you right.
Big D
Thanks for confirming my point.
Its a political appointment. Exactly the same way that the GG is a political appointment.
We have had a UK High Commissioner involved in US politics about the same amount as the GG in domestic politics as far as we know.
Ir came undone for Whitlam worked a treat for Mr Hawke.
Guytaur, @8:34
The magic words Keating used on Turnbull were “chameleon act”. Shorten should borrow it.
guytaur @ #3141 Monday, January 1st, 2018 – 8:40 pm
Batty was the politest term that I could think of.
briefly @ #3137 Monday, January 1st, 2018 – 4:36 pm
I’m certainly resistant to your attempts at the moment, but if you ever start making one I might be receptive.
Hint: Stop using dramatic meaningless phrases as if they justify going from position A to B where no logical connection is apparent.
bemused
How many military connected GG appointed have had access to classified documents working closely with intelligence agencies?
We know the Queen gives advice to her Prime Ministers. Its documented.
We know the GG does the same.
We know it can be read between the lines.
We know unlike the Queen the GG is appointed by the PM as a personal choice.
guytaur @ #3142 Monday, January 1st, 2018 – 4:43 pm
Astounding, the GG appointed by the PM is a political appointment, WOW.
And like any High Commissioner or Ambassador they promote Australia’s position on issues.
That’s a long way from being an active player in policy development.