BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

Some slightly better numbers for the Coalition improve their position in the final BludgerTrack reading for the year, although they remain fatally weak in Queensland.

With last week’s results from Newspoll and Essential Research added to the mix, the BludgerTrack poll aggregate records a solid shift back to the Coalition after a recent Labor blowout, converting into a 0.6% increase on two-party preferred and four on the seat projection. The Coalition is up even more on the primary vote, although this is basically at the expense of One Nation (see the sidebar for full results). Furthermore, The Australian published the Newspoll quarterly state breakdowns for October to December this week, which is the last polling data we will get until well into January, and this too has been added to the mix.

I’ve been noting in recent weeks that BludgerTrack’s readings for Western Australia and especially Queensland were looking off beam, and anticipated that the long-awaited addition of Newspoll data would ameliorate this. However, the Newspoll result backed up the picture of a huge swing to Labor in Queensland, of 9%, resulting in a two-party lead of 55-45. Labor’s lead in Queensland has nonetheless narrowed in BludgerTrack this week, reducing their projected seat gain from an entirely implausible 16 seats to a still rather unlikely 11, but this is as much to do with more normal-looking numbers from Essential over the past two weeks than Newspoll.

A very likely problem here is that both Newspoll and BludgerTrack are assuming preferences will behave as they did in 2016, which means a roughly even split of preferences from One Nation. The Queensland state election result suggests the support One Nation has built since comes largely from former Coalition voters, resulting in a stronger flow of preferences to them – of about 65%, in the case of the state election. In the new year, I will begin calculating preferences by splitting the difference between 2016 election flows and a trend measure of respondent-allocated preferences (which have been leaning too far the other way). This will result in more conservative readings of Labor’s two-party support.

In addition to the five seat shift to the Coalition in Queensland, BludgerTrack has the Coalition up a seat in New South Wales – but down two in Western Australia, where the Newspoll numbers (again with some help from a more normal-looking result from Essential Research) have taken the wind out of an outlier result from the state in the Ipsos poll a fortnight ago.

The leadership rating trends have been updated with the latest Newspoll results, producing a slight drop in both leaders’ net approval ratings. However, this too suffers a deficiency to which I will make an overdue correction in the new year, namely that no account is made for the idiosyncrasies of particular pollsters – such as lower approval and higher disapproval ratings from Newspoll, and lower uncommitted ratings from Ipsos. This means changes from week to week often reflect the specific pollsters that have published results, as much as meaningful change in the numbers.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,297 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

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  1. Briefly

    I don’t presume that voters are ignorant or that they cannot make their own choices. If I believed that, I would have to give up being a democrat.

    I think the 1999 referendum demonstrated the ignorance of many voters. In particular, those that voted to retain the status quo to avoid politicians selecting the head of state.

  2. An unusually forthright Latika on the Hockey revelations.

    Latika M Bourke
    9 mins ·
    Facebook Mentions
    ·
    First the Brits now the Aussies. Those yanks can’t keep their mouths shut and it’s pissing off the United States most loyal allies.

  3. big D

    You can argue that donors to political parties have no role in active policy development too.

    Doesn’t make it true.

    The point is we have no idea.

    All we have is no official role in active policy development.

    The system is opaque and who knows what private conversation over a coffee or drink influences a person?

  4. Gough, a tolerant man, would have loved Milo.
    Discuss.

    Gough would have bamboozled Milo with so many words and concepts unknown to Milo, that the latter’s head would have been spinning uncontrollably after the first minute.

  6. guytaur @ #3146 Monday, January 1st, 2018 – 8:51 pm

    How many military connected GG appointed have had access to classified documents working closely with intelligence agencies?

    We know the Queen gives advice to her Prime Ministers. Its documented.
    We know the GG does the same.
    We know it can be read between the lines.
    We know unlike the Queen the GG is appointed by the PM as a personal choice.

    So the PM appoints the GG, who then somehow controls the PM?

    This is really bizarre stuff!

  10. P1

    Get back to me when you can prove politics is not discussed between a PM and a GG in private and I will concede you are right.

  12. I recall Abbott led the charge on the republican referendum declaring people should not trust politicians to appoint a president.

    People bought that line.

    And years later they made him Prime Minister. And he proved that he could not be trusted.


  14. Mark Latham:

    Gough, a tolerant man, would have loved Milo.

    Discuss.

    More proof ( if needed) that Mark’s grip on reality is not good.

  15. guytaur @ #3146 Monday, January 1st, 2018 – 8:51 pm

    bemused

    How many military connected GG appointed have had access to classified documents working closely with intelligence agencies?

    We know the Queen gives advice to her Prime Ministers. Its documented.
    We know the GG does the same.
    We know it can be read between the lines.
    We know unlike the Queen the GG is appointed by the PM as a personal choice.

    And the relevance of any of this to anything is?

  16. bemused

    That we assume their is no political role. Yet we know personal friendship discussions on issues can have an influence on a policy decision by a PM.

    I think we are fooling ourselves to say their is no role for the GG as a result in policy discussion.

    All we can say is there is no official role.

  17. Jolyon Wagg @ #3148 Monday, January 1st, 2018 – 8:56 pm

    Briefly

    I don’t presume that voters are ignorant or that they cannot make their own choices. If I believed that, I would have to give up being a democrat.

    I think the 1999 referendum demonstrated the ignorance of many voters. In particular, those that voted to retain the status quo to avoid politicians selecting the head of state.

    Most voters take little interest in politics until an election comes around and some only in the final seconds when they mark their ballot paper.

    You are absolutely right Jolyon and Briefly is apparently off with the fairies if he thinks otherwise.

    If you want to secure any change of significance that requires the electorates approval, you need to engage in a long process of firstly arousing their interest, and then convincing them that the proposed change is necessary and in the national interest. If you have done it well enough, you stand a chance of winning.

  18. guytaur @ #3163 Monday, January 1st, 2018 – 9:21 pm

    bemused

    That we assume their is no political role. Yet we know personal friendship discussions on issues can have an influence on a policy decision by a PM.

    I think we are fooling ourselves to say their is no role for the GG as a result in policy discussion.

    All we can say is there is no official role.

    I prefer your earlier statement that you have no idea. It gets straight to the point.

  19. Ross

    Exactly!

    The very reason I want all executive roles around power to be codified not left up to convention which can be broken.

  22. Bemused

    Yeah you know every discussion between Bob Hawke and Bill Hayden was not at all about politics.

    I think its you who has no idea

  25. guytaur @ #3157 Monday, January 1st, 2018 – 9:15 pm

    P1

    Get back to me when you can prove politics is not discussed between a PM and a GG in private and I will concede you are right.

    You are just doubling down on your own nonsense. You know nothing, as you freely admit. And from that you spin some vast conspiracy. A conspiracy to do what, exactly?

  27. I am a bit confused about the Russian claim.
    AEGIS can be either or both aggressive and defensive. It is quite possible that the land-based AEGIS that Japan is getting would essentially an anti-missile missile system, so that does not seem to fit the Russian whinge.
    The cruise missiles that Japan is proposing to purchase WOULD breach the INF Treaty but they would have to be nuclear tipped.
    And theoretically, Japan has no nuclear weapons.
    My evidence-free hunch is that they at least have the makings for swags of them ready to be put together in a very short time indeed.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intermediate-Range_Nuclear_Forces_Treaty

  29. P1

    Yeah a PM officially appointing someone who is supposed to listen and give advice is conspiracy.

    All so you can pretend the role is not political.

    This because then you would have to address the role of the Reserve Powers that can be ignored by the GG if he so wishes.

    As Sir John Kerr proved. This is possible under the current system. When looking at the Constitution you have to look at the exception that proves the rule.

    Conventions are not the exception.

  30. There is money to be made in being a right winger.

    Latham is avaricious. He wants to ride the coat tails of Milo who gouged fees on his recent tour from those who may have spent their money more wisely.

  31. guytaur @ #3176 Monday, January 1st, 2018 – 9:37 pm

    P1

    Yeah a PM officially appointing someone who is supposed to listen and give advice is conspiracy.

    All so you can pretend the role is not political.

    This because then you would have to address the role of the Reserve Powers that can be ignored by the GG if he so wishes.

    As Sir John Kerr proved. This is possible under the current system. When looking at the Constitution you have to look at the exception that proves the rule.

    Conventions are not the exception.

    I have no idea what you are on about. And apparently neither do you.

  32. Kilcullen in The Weekend Australian has a sweeping assessment of actual or likely trouble spots for 2018. Completely absent from the analysis is Central and South America.
    The left field one is that Egypt is threatening to bomb Aethiopia’s big new construction project – a massive dam on the Blue Nile.

  35. TonyHWindsor: The Inaugural 2017 Windsor Award for Service to the Public goes to the Royal Commissioners for their work on Institutionalised Child Abuse …an example to us all.
    They have done Gods work when his/her people saw nothing .

  37. Big full moon shining full and par-bright tonight – somewhat tending to the yellow end of the spectrum because of all the grass pollen interfering with the light rays.

  38. Shellbell:

    The only people who love Milo are racist, homophobic, sexist and misogynist bigots who oppose equality and social justice, and the love on him because he rants against women, cultural and ethnic minorities, equality and social justice.

    Having seen him be grilled by good interviewers, he has no rational, sensible or logical defence for any of his pet hates, to the point that I wouldn’t be surprised to learn he actually really doesn’t believe any of that, but is just saying it for notoriety, ignominy and a pay cheque.

  39. Confessions @ #3185 Monday, January 1st, 2018 – 9:44 pm

    Having seen him be grilled by good interviewers, he has no rational, sensible or logical defence for any of his pet hates, to the point that I wouldn’t be surprised to learn he actually really doesn’t believe any of that, but is just saying it for notoriety, ignominy and a pay cheque.

    Are you talking about Milo or Latham?

  41. As to the first part, Gough was not a tolerant man. He did not suffer fools quietly. Milo is worse than a fool. He is a charlatan, like Latham.

    As to the second part, lol.

  43. Mr Milo’s life’s work is to profit from exploitation of the aphorism that there is one* born every day.
    The court case about Milo’s Kampf promises to provide sly entertainment.
    *Dopey right winger

  47. marcialangton: @MikeCarlton01 Latham: such a repulsive human being; devoid of any qualities to redeem himself; his public persona goes beyond RWF — he is racist, misogynist, hateful of all people who differ from his self aggrandising white male trope of the beleagured victim of all the Others twitter.com/MikeCarlton01/…

    MikeCarlton01: Our winner of the inaugural Gold Kenny for Right Wing Fuckwit of 2017…it just has to be: The taxi drivers’ friend…with a chip like a railway sleeper on each shoulder…raging at clouds…that RW Bully and Brown Noser Extraordinaire…MARK LATHAM !!! pic.twitter.com/QOzqDlgEDL
    https://twitter.com/mikecarlton01/status/947718843811512322

  48. ….for the very little it may be worth, I am a member of the Republican Movement. I will campaign with other Republicans, seeking to engage the disengaged and to attract support. My starting premise is that the Republic, if it is enacted, will be the people’s Republic and not mine. To be a Republican is to be a democrat. Implicitly, this means I have to be prepared to accept a result that may not be the one I would choose but will be the form chosen by all the people. I also understand that politics is about drawing together people who share similar views, finding ways to marshal their opinions and then to speak with a common voice. This is all I seek to do. In the end, democracy is not a game of solitaire. It is a social pursuit.

  50. guytaur says:
    Monday, January 1, 2018 at 10:04 pm
    Rupert Murdoch reportedly instructed his editors to “kill Whitlam” before the fall of the Labor government in 1975.

    I have not bought a single Murdoch-owned product since that time.

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